Post Lottery Thoughts

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT in NBA Draft

The NBA Draft Lottery at its finest...

At some point teams are going to learn not to tank aren’t they?

Or, at least not seemingly put all their eggs in one basket.

Because when Sacramento dealt Brad Miller and John Salmons for tickets to Oprah, you can’t tell me the Maloof troop wasn’t betting on at least bringing Ricky Rubio to Vegas if not Blake Griffin.

Now, even if the Kings don’t move from Sacramento this year, it doesn’t appear they’ll even be bringing Hasheem Thabeet.

Last night’s NBA Draft lottery was a comical affair as Sacramento, the team with the best chance at Griffin, fell to fourth while the Washington Wizards, the team with the second-worst record last year, fell to fifth. The fall of those two clubs was funny enough for Howland, the HQ Associate and myself, all gathered to watch the affair, but seeing the Clippers, arguably the worst franchise in NBA history, win the lottery process rose the unintentional comedy factor even higher. As Clippers president Andy Roeser awkwardly accepted thanks from the gathered crew of GM’s and players, all that seemed to be missing was Will Farrell playing the role of Alex Trebec and Tom Hanks shouting out "South Hampshire!"

Yes, the NBA lottery never fails to entertain does it?

Seemingly year after year, teams like the Grizzlies, Clippers, and Timberwolves trudge out new good luck charms in hopes of changing their clubs’ fortunes; be they current players, alumni, trinkets designed by family members, or something else entirely. In fact the whole process does have some eerie similarities to Saturday Night Live’s take on the classic television game show Jeopardy and its panel of reprobates.

As for the Toronto Raptors?

Well they didn’t fall past nine (something I thought was in the cards) but they didn’t make the leap either. They’ll be picking at nine when all is said and done, a position that I worry won’t allow them to grab one of the players they desperately need. A quick look around the early mock drafts confirms this too.

From ESPN.com, Chad Ford has immediately launched into his first mock draft and has an HQ favourite sitting at nine for the Raptors’ taking. Ford has Tyreke Evans being the Dinos’ selection, something that would sit well with us at the HQ considering we’ve had him sitting third in our prospects watch on our home page since he declared. The problem is, a lot of things have to go right in order for this scenario to unfold.

First and foremost, this "Knicks taking Stephen Curry" rumour has to be bang-on. It’s been floating around for a while now but I’m admittedly skeptical. I’m just not sure I see D’Antoni and co. passing up on players with the upside of Evans. As well, while I do feel that Griffin, Rubio and Thabeet will go in the top 3, after that it’s still wide open and there’s no guarantee a player like Hill or Jennings doesn’t tumble so that prospects like Evans or DeRozan go in the top four or five. As the HQ Associate said last night, "after Blake, Hasheem and Rubio, workouts are going to determine the rest of the order."

I’d have to agree as while GM’s always say that their prior scouting dictates eventual selections, every year one or two players jumps way up on GM wish lists suddenly because of their respective workout performances. Sometimes this is warranted (Russell Westbrook) and sometimes it looks like a poor decision in the end (Joe Alexander.)

This year, two players who look to me like they could make such a jump are Jrue Holiday, and Jonny Flynn. Ford has both three slated for the lottery but even a month ago, neither even looked like they would be declaring let alone be lottery picks. Holiday is especially interesting because for perhaps the top incoming freshman in college ball last year, he was extremely under whelming as a Bruin. However he’s being compared to Rajon Rondo’s situation coming out of Kentucky in that both were extremely talented but were forced to play in a system that did not showcase their strengths.

To me, having these two players and potentially others increase their stock through individual workouts is key for Toronto. Because while Ford has these workout wonders sitting pretty in the lottery, other sites such as Draftexpress.com, have things positioned differently and unfortunately have the likes of DeRozan and Evans gone by the time the Raptors’ are on the clock at nine. I spoke all year of Toronto’s need to get into the top seven or eight to gain an impact player and right now, I’m not holding my breath.

There’s still over a month to go before the draft of course, but based on early returns, I think a lot has to go right for the Raptors in order for a player of Evans, DeRozan or Harden’s talent and potential to fall to them. Of course that doesn’t mean Bryan Colangelo doesn’t have a few tricks up his sleeve and perhaps if there is a player he really covets come draft day, he makes a move up the ladder to get said prospect.

Last night put the first draft pieces in place, now it’s up to BC and co. to arrange them in Toronto’s favour.

FRANCHISE

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Comments

An interesting thought from NBADraft.net:

http://www.nbadraft.net/node/5815

Sacramento might want to deal their pick to grab Jennings a little higher in the draft.

If Jennings is still there at 9, Harden for Jennings + our $3,000,000 in cash?

Would mean we'd be spending our $3M but walking away with only one pick rather than 2, but Harden's probably the most NBA-ready SG in the draft, and it would seem Colangelo wants to swing for the fences this year to keep Bosh. Two "upside" rookies might not be as appealing as one "ready" player...

by Phonechecka on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I really feel for Griffin... welcome to the NBA!

Your coach/GM is a dunce... and you will be learning how to be a pro from Zach "Punch you in the face after I jack this 3" Randolph.

Poor kid.

by lessthanzero on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Its true that the Raps are not in an ideal position, but I think they are in a spot where they will get a very talented (but young) player, whose immediate contributions won't be huge, but down the iine, they might be one of the top players in this class.

My "Fave 5" for the Raps:

1. Brandon Jennings
2. Tyreke Evans
3. Demar Derozan
4. Jrue Holiday
5. Johnny Flynn

Thoughts?

by Young Money on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Phonechecka, I definitely don't think BC is going to trade away the extra cash to move up in the draft. I think Jennings has much more upside compared to Harden, and it would be foolish to draft a player to "please" Bosh, who may not be here after next season. Colangelo has a history of taking the best player he thinks is available at 9 (Matrix, Amare), and I think he will draft on a best player available basis, rather than a "most ready to contribute now" basis. Don't get me wrong though. If Harden is there at 9, I would love to see the Raps take him.

by Young Money on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Great post, love the jeopardy comparison. I think as some other posters just mentioned, that t o is in great shape. Most of the teams above them are struggling with needs, money, identity, blah, blah, blah. So hopefully bc can take advantage.

by fromlongrange on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Chris Bosh and the number 9 pick for the number 1 pick and Al Thornton or Eric Gordon.

by Sam Bowie on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Like the thought Phonechecka.

In fact I think there are a million and one scenarios that will be swirling around. I guess it really comes down to who BC and co have their eye on and therefore how much they want to pay to go get their man.

Interesting too that ESPN in their draft recap noted that the top overall pick over the past decade or so has either been a stud or really solid with the exception of Kwame. So apparently Bargs has moved out of the "bust" category into at least "solid."

by Franchise on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

why are the Clippers "arguably" the worst franchise? Is anyone contesting this??

by utes on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

utes - I think Memphis is putting in a solid bid to challenge the clips.

Personally, I think if a good 2 isn't available we should either trade down or out of the draft altogether. Why waste money on a prospect who has an equal chance to be a bust as he is to be a stud? A number or teams are looking to move decent players this offseason, why not use the pick to grab someone who can help right away?

by McGateway on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Utes - I actually didn't have "arguably" there at first but thought "wait, Golden State and Memphis have been pretty terrible too..."

One other draft thought. Looking over the various mocks I had to say it was a bit frustrating to see the options some of the top clubs like the Lakers and Cavs had on the board. Must just be a great situation to be in when your team can sit with a great playoff run and wait to see which prospects teams miss on that fall to you. I mean, you've just won your conference and you've got guys like Patty Mills and DaJuan Summers available for your selection. Nice work if you can get it...

by Franchise on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I think it's wise that the Raps are involving a sports psychologist in their evaluation process. I'm more interested in the mental upside than the physical talent upside because I think one thing that really good teams have is smart players. Also, I wonder how often really good players in college become solid contributors in the NBA. Some very good college players that much wasn't expected from in the NBA include Glen Davis, Carlos Boozer, and Jameer Nelson. Late first and second round picks that really became solid contributors to high calibre teams. Boozer kind of reminds me of how Hansborough is being dismissed in this draft lead up.Work ethic, smarts, then talent (in that order) because the first two enable the third to be realized in full. Also some credit has to be given for being leading cogs from schools who won while you were there. There's a lot of drafting on raw ability but unless your organization is set up for proper development you're wasting opportunities to establish a winning culture. The same teams in this process every year (Clips, Grizzlies) and all they seem to do is tread water. I hope this is a one and done thing for the Raps. They get the best fit and move on to actually playing during this time of year instead of hoping.

by Interloper on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

McGateway, it would be crazy for the Toronto to trade out of this draft with the lack of talent, depth and money in Raptorland. This might be one of those drafts were the picks after the top 10 will turn out to be more impressive, simply because the talent after the top 2 (maybe 3) is comparable right on up to the 18th or 19th pick.

What Toronto really needs to do is take advantage of the disappointment in Washington right now and try to move Bosh there.

To Washington:
Bosh
Banks
cash

To Toronto:
Jamison
Thomas
Crittenton
#5 pick

This is just one variation on a potential deal, but the key would be to get Jamison + 5th pick. In the above deal the Wiz would unload a bad contact in Thomas (6.8 mil/2 years left) for a less bad contract in Banks (4.2 mil/3 years) and end up with Bosh to make up for not being able to nab Griffin/Rubio with one of the top 2 picks.

Toronto would all of a sudden have 2 picks in the top 9, which we could use to solve our needs. We could put Jamison at the SF spot and draft a PF with the 5th pick (Hill) and draft a SG later with the 9th pick; or play him at PF and draft Harden with 5th pick, then use 9th pick to bolster the bench with Curry, Derozan, Evans or whoever is the best player available.

To me this is a better plan than bringing back Bosh and Marion and hoping for the best in 2010; not to mention there would be a certain poetry in bringing in the player we flipped to G-State for "he who shall not be named" a decade ago.

Rob

by 2nd Raps fan in LA on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

2nd Raps Fan
you forgot about the worse contract in critterton who has like 2-3 years left for almost as much money as banks and he is almost as useless (at least so far in his carrer). Maybe I am over valuing Bosh but that I am not sure that is a sufficient package for him, especially in light of the fact that Jamieson is like 32 or 33. Trading out of a weak draft is not as crazy as you think. As I stated, the Raps need immediate help not a prospect who might be really good 3 years from now. Trading out to get a player who can play now is a smart move.

by McGateway on May 21, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Post Lottery thoughts, BC's words, from quotes.

1. He has no intention of trading Bosh.
2. He wants to re-sign Marion & Delfino @ SF & SG.
3.He wants to resign AP as a back-up @ PG/SG.
4. He will not attempt to trade up in the draft for any but #1, very unlikely LAC would do it.
5. He will be content that at #9 he will get a player who will come in and fill a need (10/12 available he feels)
6. He will look to buy a 2nd pick if someone else he likes is available late in the 1st round.

Lot's of work to do.

by Johnn19 on May 21, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions