The Second Domino – NBA Draft Lottery Set for this Evening
With the NBA’s draft lottery taking place at 8 PM EST tonight, the Toronto Raptors will be looking to the lottery Gods in order to vault up into one of the top 3 spots.
It happened in 1996 of course when Toronto grabbed Andrea Bargnani after having only an 8.8 per cent chance of winning it all, however this year the odds look much more insurmountable.
The Raptors have less than a 2.5 per cent chance of getting into the top 3 spots (1.7, 2.0 and 2.4 per cent respectively) and as the Arsenalist from Raptors Republic points out:
"only four times (in lottery history) has a team which is slotted to select 9th or lower actually advanced into the top three…a failure rate of 83%."
That should tell you all you need to know about tonight and I expect when all is said and done that Toronto will be picking from the nine spot.
Stranger things have happened of course, the Bulls jumped to the very top last year to nab Derrick Rose while having the ninth-worst record, but statistically, I’m not getting my hopes up. Instead, I think tonight is extremely important for Colangelo and co. so they can start to piece other teams’ situations together.
For instance, say the Knicks land the top pick? Does that suddenly make David Lee expendable? Or should a team like Golden State land in the top 3, does their glut of swingmen suddenly become even more available via trade? Maybe they’re willing to move from that spot if Griffin and Rubio are gone and Toronto covets someone like James Harden? If the Jay Triano hiring was the first proverbial domino to fall, getting the draft order set tonight is that second tile.
If Toronto does hear its name called at nine, then fans can start up the party-wagon as after the top 3 selections are made, the draft proceeds in the inverse order of the way teams finished in last year’s standings. Therefore Toronto can’t pick from 4 to 8. They can however pick lower than nine, which in my opinion, wouldn’t be the end of the world either. My fear is that a number of the names that would make the most sense for the Dinos at 9 will be long gone by then so in a draft with a very similar talent base after the top few picks, perhaps grabbing more of a proven winner at say 11 or 12 would be better.
In fact, the argument could be make that picking from a lower spot makes more sense as the financial commitments to that player would be less, and considering that this draft hardly looks like one in which Toronto is going to be able to grab a superstar, this leaves more money to go after some serious help via free agency.
Or conversely, with the state of the NBA economy, maybe a lower pick gives Toronto some more loot with which to purchase a second first-round pick from a team that’s struggling financially. Teams that fit this mould include Sacramento at 23 and Memphis at 27.
And is a club like the Cavs or Lakers really going to want their 29th or 30th selection? Picks like these might be in play as well.
Things kick off at 8:30 PM EST tonight on The Score and we’ll be in full discussion mode post-lottery. Toronto obviously has numerous needs that need to be addressed this off-season so nailing down the spot they’ll be picking from is step 1 in this process. Step 2 is making the actual pick and certainly there will be much rumour and innuendo before next month’s actual draft.
It would admittedly be nice though if much of that dialogue centers on what the Raptors will do with the top overall pick, but for now I’ll just take some solace in watching the team with the worst overall record (Sacramento) again fail to land the top spot.
My pick?
The Wizards.
FRANCHISE
19 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Question: In the Marion - O'Neil trade the Raptors acquired cash from Miami and Colangelo said he could use cash to buy a draft pick in the future. How does that work? What is it likely to cost to say - move up; buy another first round pcik? a second round pick?
Thanks
by Ian Johnson on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
good article.
but im pretty sure you meant to say 2006 not 1996 haha. In 96 they drafted camby with the second pick, and well we all know what happened after that.
Another thought I was having, kind of completely unrelated to the draft in a way but it has to do with the offseason. Now I have no idea how contracts would work and all that, but i want to know what people think of a Bosh and Kapono to Denver for Martin, kleiza and jr smith?
I know Martin has health issues but he would solve our toughness issue while providing a solid defensive and rebounding power forward to offset bargs. Then with Smith you've got an all out scorer who i think flourishes in the type of run and gun style the raps wanna play, the issue with him is his attitude/off court issues but if we could look past that the kid could flat out score and hes only like 23. Lastly, Kleiza is a guy that would just fill a gap and put in some solid numbers off the bench for us.
ANy thoughts on this trade? Again I havent looked into contracts, or whether or not any of them are free agents but i think it would be an intriguing trade. EVen on the denver side of things: it gives them an allstar power forward to play alongside anthony, nene and billups, thats a pretty scary lineup now that i think of it.
by big d on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Big D:
I think you'd have a tough time convinving people that you're getting value for a premiere player in this league. If you could score a couple draft picks, you might be alright. Because without Bosh (and with only JR Smith being the young talent in that trade) we'd be lacking in any serious young talent, outside of Bargs. Also, I'm not convinced that that trade makes us any better now or in the future.
Sorry dude, that doesn't work for me (unless it somehow got us an early 1st round pick next season with which to pick a stud prospect).
by Casey on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Big D -
I think you would be hardpressed to find anyone in Denver right now willing to make that deal unless they get absolutely manhandled in the conference finals. Also, KMart has one of the worst contracts in the league.
by HOWLAND on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
yea just noticed the kmart contract thing.
I think its my utmost desire to trade bosh that makes me look for any option possible. That and I think JR has some ridiculous potential to be a huge scorer in this league, and hes freakishly athletic.
by big d on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Ian - Basically BC can use that 3 Million acquired via the Marion trade whenever he wants in terms of buying a pick. That amount would be transferred to whatever team he was buying the pick from.
And yes, BC could go after one first rounder, or split things up I suppose depending on where the additional pick was located. Second round pick purchasing would be trickier of course because after the first-round, contracts aren't guaranteed. So Colangelo would have to be certain that he was picking a player that late that he knew was going to make the roster.
Big D - Yep, 2006 I meant...sorry, had 1996 on the brain from reading about that draft class, my favourite of all time.
Also - we updated the poll this morning to correspond with tonight's lottery so let us know where you think the Raps will end up.
by Franchise on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Conspiracy time kiddiez - i think ok city gets top pick.
by fromlongrange on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
To quote LLoyd Christmas "So you're sayin theirs a chance?"
by utes on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
"The Raptors have less than a 2.5 per cent chance of getting into the top 3 spots"
Actually, you add the odds of each scenario occurring (.017 + .020 + .024 = 6.3%) as the odds of the #3 pick don't reflect the odds of the #1 and #2 picks.
In other words, while the specific odds of getting the #1 pick are low (1.7%) as are the odds for the #2 (2.2%) and the #3 (2.4%), the odds of ANY one of those three scenarios occurring is the sum of their odds.
Still low, but 6.3% is better than 2.5%, when you're as desperate for some good news here as the Raptors!
by Phonechecka on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
If we were to get the 2nd or 3rd pick, would we ever want those guys? Personally, I think Rubio is a jump shot away from being our starting point guard - and I love Jose!
Thabeet is one dimensional and may be a bust that will may Araujo look like a success. Either way, are the Raps gonna hang on to those guys? We all hope for Griffin as insurance against Bosh blowing town.
by EaseMyPain on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
does anyone know where i could watch this live. what channels?
by tea time on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I'm not sure it'll be live... The Star says on the Score at 8:30, but I believe it's usually recapped at half time of the NBA game tonight.
by Vicious D on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
ok it was live on the score at 8:30. so raps stuck at 9 and clips get griffin. now what? im excited, now lets hear those juicy trade senarios or possible draftees
by tea time on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
How many of you think that the nba lottery is fixed. It made sense that the nba worked out the deal that brought Colangelo to TO, and he got the first pick that year. Chicago needed a charge for a large market, Clips, too. You just knew tha Memphis would not get it, and Sacramento is the low California market.
by EaseMyPain on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Caron Butler, Mike James, Ethan Thomas, pick #5 for Bosh and Marcus Banks. Similar ideas have been thrown around this site. The move would save the luxury tax bound Wizards a bunch of money. Butler would suit the Raps. Ethan and Mike James are both expiring. Having pick 5 and 9 would be great - especially if the Raps were to get Thabeet and Harden/Williams.
by JBen on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Numbers game is MAD off today - nice catch Phonechecka. Too bad Toronto couldn't jump into that top 3 spot but definitely some interesting options now that Washington and Sacto didn't get the high pick they were hoping for.
by Franchise on May 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I agree with EaseMypain, the lottery is fixed. Want Proof?
2003 - Cleveland Cavaliers win draft lottery and potential franchise saver, Lebron James (yes they had the best chance to win but only 4 teams with the best chance have ever won).
2. 1996 - Raptors win lottery but thanks to a legal fix, have to draft 2nd.
3. 2008 - Derrick Rose goes to his HOME TOWN Bulls, even though they only have a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery. hmmmm, a little convenient.
2004 - Orlando Magic win the lottery and waste the pick on Dwight Howard. it had no impact what so ever on the greatest expansion team in history (who have won more lotteries than anyone else).
2009 - LA Clippers win in weakest draft screwing OKC and Memphis two small market franchise. I have it on good authority that they are going to draft a stud named Len Bias or trade the pick for Mike Dunleavy Jr.
2005-2007 - NY Knicks denied 1st overall pick even though they suck because Isiah Thomas sexually harrased Mrs Stern.
Ok - I got a little silly with it but you have to be suspicious when the NBA uses a completely retarded system to determine draft position. I watched the lottery live and when they explained the process I was lik HUH? They draw 4 balls with numbers on them which gives them a 4 digit number. The number combinations are assigned to each team with the worst team having like 250 combinations. They then match the numbers on a whiteboard to figure out the first 3 picks. Maybe I am crazy but wouldn't it be easier to just put the teams logo on the balls and do it that way? The 4 digit combo thing leaves a ton of possibilities for the NBA to pull a fast one and award the 1st pick to whom ever they feel like. It seems like an awfully convoluted system to determine only 3 draft draft positions (1st 2nd 3rd).
by Mcgateway on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Interesting rumour on SI's Truth and Rumour page. Hawks are looking to move Marvin Williams (sign&Trade) and Acie Law. Wouldn't both of those guys help the Raps? Not sure what we would have to give up but if it was our 1st round pick, Roko and someone else (Graham, Marion etc) shouldn't we do this?
by McGateway on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I agree with McGateway. That lottery system gives me a headache trying to wrap my head around it. I don't know about all the conspiracy theory stuff (though it is a little weird that both Rose and James went to their home town teams) but there has to be an easier way to determine the draft pick sequence.
by Posterized on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

by 






















