3 In the Key – Toronto Raptors' Game-Day Preview vs. Hawks

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT in 3 in the Key

Is now the time for the Raps to be going for broke for Griffin?

I woke up this morning with admittedly some feelings of sadness.

The NCAA tournament concluded last night with North Carolina’s thrashing of Michigan State signaling an end to the college season, the Raptors for the first time in two years won’t be playing in the NBA’s post-season…oh…and it’s snowing in Toronto on April 7th.

While March is my favourite month of the year as a basketball fan, April is usually a bit hit or miss. I’m not a big baseball fan (although I did attend the Jays’ home-opener last night), as indicated, the weather can be sketchy, and thanks to the NBA franchise I support, unfortunately more often then not the NBA’s second-season usually begins minus one club in purple.

Or red and black now.

In the past, fans of the Atlanta Hawks understood this sentiment as well.

Outside of last year’s excellent showing against the Boston Celtics, the Hawks had only made the playoffs twice in the previous ten seasons! That’s a record of futility that the Raptors can’t even match! (Worse? The Clippers who counting from this season back have made it once in the past TWELVE years!)

After being picked by many to again miss the playoffs this year, the Hawks however have already guaranteed themselves a post-season spot, and are currently up on the Miami Heat by two games in the battle for fourth place in the East.

That’s why as much as tonight’s game may not mean a whole lot for the Dinos, the Hawks will indeed be looking to close out the season strong, as sixth place Philly still has a chance to catch Atlanta for that fourth spot as well.

For the Raptors, I guess the argument could be made that the team is playing for pride from here on out but really, it’s hard to say if that’s the case or not. After speaking with many of the Raptors post-game on Sunday, many claimed not to even be aware that the loss to the Knicks mathematically eliminated them from playoff contention.

So if that’s indeed the case, do you think fans will actually see much of a difference between tonight’s version of the Raps versus the one that had won six of its last seven?

I don’t, however as mentioned yesterday, I’m hoping the team does look to do some thigns differently from here on out for various reasons.

So instead of our usual "3 in the Key," let’s look at three factors that I’m hoping will guide Toronto’s on-court approach from here on out:

1) Player Evaluation –

Again, this was something I discussed yesterday. With six games remaining on the 2008-09 schedule, let’s start rolling out the reserves early. We know what Chris Bosh can do. We know what Jose Calderon is capable of. So how about an extended look at guys like Patrick O’Bryant and Quincy Douby (who Ryan McNeil of Hoops Addict spoke with post-game on Sunday.)

Perhaps the Raptors have an unsung hero in their midst that can be brought back in even a 10th man role for cheap?

I’d even prefer to see Nathan Jawai be brought back from the D League for the remaining matches. Let’s see just how far he’s got to go and if even with an off-season of play and another Summer League, if it looks like he’ll at least be able to hold down a spot on the roster. The development of guys like he and Pops could end up being crucial to Bryan Colangelo’s off-season ironically. If BC feels that these two or O’Bryant are ready to step into the club’s reserve big-man roles, then suddenly Kris Humphries becomes quite expendable (if he isn’t already.)

2) Draft Odds -

Even with the Raptors’ recent win streak, the team can still jump into the top 7 in regards to the upcoming draft. Lottery balls aside, the Raptors right now sit in ninth, but only percentage points ahead of the Knicks and suddenly Golden State is only two wins away from leap-frogging the Dinos as well. Unfortunately, with games against Houston, Utah, San Antonio and Phoenix on their schedule, it looks quite unlikely that the Warriors will be able to overshoot the Raptors, but stranger things have happened.

Again, this isn’t to say I think the team should go into tank mode, but if losses are the result of point number one, thoroughly evaluating the current talent, or lack thereof, on the roster, so be it.

Is there a huge difference in the end between drafting say 9th or 10th versus 7th or 8th? There are differing opinions on this, even in the local media. On one side we have Michael Grange who looking at the bigger picture, notes that in today’s NBA, you may need to "swing for the fences" via the draft in order to get that "big reward."

On the other side we have The Star’s Doug Smith, who argues against shooting for the best possible draft positioning and points out that the difference between having an eighth or ninth pick is incremental at best.

I do agree with Mr. Smith in regards to the fact that good and great players come out of late lottery picks all the time. The problem with his logic is that having a top choice gives you a BETTER chance of picking a superior player. Sure, guys like Biedrins and Thad Young fall into the late lottery all the time, but statistically overall, the best players are found at the top of the draft. So the goal here is to have more chances to draft those guys rather than less.

I think this is ESPECIALLY true this year, where there are only about four players who look to be "sure things" to certain degrees should they all declare (this would be Griffin, Harden, Rubio and Thabeet.) Not to say they’ll all be stars in the league, but GM’s who select these four will get solid pieces to add to their respective clubs. Being one of those top 5 "worst" teams, even top 7, gives you a solid shot at a top 3 spot, something as mentioned, I feel is critical this year.

The other thing Doug fails to take into consideration is the power associated with having a top pick. Sure, you may not actually draft a better player with a top selection, but in the draft as we well know, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. So some rival GM may fall in love with a certain player and the higher your own team’s pick, the better chance that you can deliver said player to the opposing GM on a silver platter...for something in return of course.

I’d argue that Toronto right now needs all of the help it can get so being in command of the draft from a higher seed certainly isn’t a bad thing.

3) Early Training Camp -

Chances are pretty good that regarding his future with the Toronto Raptors, Chris Bosh made up his mind a long time ago. Maybe the whole "dead-beat Dad" saga that the Star initiated helped make that decision a bit easier but the point is that regardless of what CB4 has said publicly, I think the past few months have given him all the information he needs in terms of making a decision.

However there are other players on this team that I’m not sure are sold one way or another.

Take Shawn Marion.

I asked Marion Sunday about his fit with the club, and if he felt that he was a lot more comfortable in his role here now than when he first came onboard. While he stated that yes, indeed he felt the on-court chemistry with his teammates had improved, there were still stretches when his abilities weren’t being taken advantage of via mismatches and the like.

Is it time for more Joey?

Therefore outside of evaluating the Nathan Jawais and Quincy Doubys of the team, continuing to create cohesion between guys like Marion and the rest of the club could pay big dividends next season. If Colangelo is dead set on keeping The Matrix and Pops Mensah-Bonsu around, then in these final six games, why not look to get them even more involved? One of the excuses for Toronto’s record this season was a lack of an effective training camp for both newcomers to the team, and players who had been dealing with off-season injuries (Jose Calderon.)

So why not get the guys you’re intending to bring back next season to mesh early? We’ve seen Jose slowly start to develop a much better chemistry with Marion but why not get Roko involved in this respect as well? We’ve talked about the team’s financial situation heading into next year ad nauseam but again, if Toronto can really make Marion feel like a key piece for this club going forward, then maybe they get him back for cheap.

There’s certainly no harm in trying this approach, as the worst-case scenario is that the Matrix decides regardless of his increased role, that he’d like to play elsewhere. That of course frees up more cap room, not exactly a huge negative at this point for the franchise.

To a lesser degree, this tactic applies to the likes of Joey Graham and Anthony Parker as well; two players who would be nice to retain at the right price.

As we’ve seen time and time again in this league, players just want to feel appreciated so with six games left and not much to play for, why not look to involve players like this as much as possible?

After all, 36 wins hardly thrusts you back into the NBA spotlight.

But 30 wins, a higher draft pick, motivated individuals and the chance to do a thorough evaluation of your talent might be exactly what you need to get back in said spotlight.

FRANCHISE

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Comments

Good post. Hope BC stumbles accross this post and makes Triano follow this to the letter.
On a side note, i have always had a sweetspot for Joey. Soo much raw power.

by Arrow on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Looking forward to the thursday prospect talk, last nights game blew. Lawson i think is underrated, but outside of him, not much from the match in terms of draft options. (NO NOT HANSBOROUGH!!!)

Talking rappies, i actually think they win tonight and don't follow any of the 3 keys just to annoy us fans.

But call me cynical.

by fromlongrange on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Man, every year now, we get one week of summer in March and then one week of winter in April... Things have changed since I was a kid... :p

Tonight, I hope to see extended minutes for some bench players, but I really couldn't care less about Douby or O'Bryant. Neither have shown me much to build on for next year, regardless of where they're drafted. Hell, we should know that better than anyone.

by Vicious D on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Doug Smith's math lesson about lottery chances at the back end of the lottery compared chances of winning the lottery versus team standing entering it (it wasn't a comparison of adjacent draft picks). While the difference in percentage chances of winning the lottery between, say, eighth and ninth places may seem numerically small to Doug,(2.8 percent versus 1.7 percent), in relative terms the eighth-place team's chance of winning the lottery is 65-percent higher than that of the ninth-place team. Hardly insignificant.

by DC on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

DC - totally agree. And sorry, part of my argument was based on an earlier post of his too, where he was comparing adjacent picks. The frustrating thing is that one sample he used was last year's draft, which is akin to using the 96 or 98 drafts for comparison, two that were chalk full of talent so yes, you COULD grab a stud with the 10th pick etc.

by Franchise on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

So the Raptors have to make their best pitch at Bosh in the next 6 months in order for him to choose to stay around... To get the piece they desperately need (a SG that can create his own shot) while remaining below the salary cap and building towards the future (and get rid of some bad contracts, ie. Kapono & Banks), I think the road that has to be traveled goes through trading Andrea Bargnani. He is the only worthy trading chip they have right now.

Golden State would be, in my opinion, the perfect fit. By trading away Andrea Bargnani along with Jason Kapono, the Raptors should be able to attract back Jamal Crawford and Kelenna Azubuike, two good SG (GS's 2nd round draft pick should also be included). Then by wavering the rights to Shawn Marion and Joey Graham, the Dinos could sign back Pops Mensah-Bonsu, and get some free agents to support their three stellar players (Calderon-Bosh-Crawford).

-->I'm thinking, go get Channing Frye off of Portland's books to be our starting center. He's a pretty skilled player offensively and he will provide a presence inside that can alter shots. 5.5M should be enough to lure him over.

--> Waiver the rights to Patrick O'Bryant, I think that would leave about 0.5M on the cap as that amount is guaranteed to him.

--> Sign Marcus Haislip of the European league. To be the main backup for Bosh. He's a very athletic player and has a pretty good offensive skill set as well.

--> Sign Quinton Ross to start at small forward and be THE certified defensive stopper. He's not the best offensively, but doesn't miss defensive assignments.

-->Sign back Anthony Parker to remain on the team, he's a very good overall depth player. I'd also like for him to be Calderon' backup, thus leaving the backup SG position to Azubuike.

Poof! Voilà! The Raptors have a revamped team that is much more athletic, has better ball handling skills and still has some money leftover, and a vacant spot to add another player during the season once their needs are reevaluated. We might still be a little thin at SF, but by moving Anthony Parker over to PG and having Crawford available to play some minutes at PG as well, at least that position is solidified. We could sign a free agent later on or make a trade.

Here would be the new roster:

Channing Frye/ Pops Mensah-Bonsu/ Nathan Jawai
Chris Bosh/ Marcus Haislip/ Kris Humpries/
Quinton Ross/ Draft Pick/
Jamal Crawford/ Kelenna Azubuike/ Roko Ukic
Jose Calderon/ Anthony Parker/ Marcus Banks

Salaries:
1. Chris Bosh : 15.8M
2. Channing Frye : 5.5M
3. Draft Pick : 3M
4. Jamal Crawford : 9.4M
5. Jose Calderon : 8.3M
6. Mensah-Bonsu : 1.25M
7. Kris Humphries : 3.2M
8. Marcus Haislip : 2.75M
9. Kelenna Azubuike : 3.2M
10.Anthony Parker : 4.5M
11.Nathan Jawai : 0.74M
12.Quinton Ross : 1.5M
13.Roko Ukic : 1.4M
14.Marcus Banks : 4.5M
(). Patrick O'Bryant: 0.5M

Total : 65.04M

*I probably overstated the salaries these guys actually get or will be getting.
**The free agent signings are to guys who aren't playing much where they are and who would most likely get much more constant minutes with Toronto which should help sweeten the deal.

Quinton Ross isn't a great offensive player, I've actually touched on that, but the thing is, on a team as talented as the Raptors would be with all those changes, he doesn't really need to be. He's athletic, runs the floor well and doesn't make many mistakes. Between Bosh, Crawford and Calderon, there won't be that many more touches for Ross, and if there are it will most likely be an open look off a Bosh double team or penetration by either Crawford or Calderon. There wouldn't really be any set plays for whoever plays 3 on a team like this. Part 2 of this is, Quinton Ross would cost just about 1.5M, whereas Marion would cost over 5M and Marion isn't really a very good creator neither. I rather keep some money and get just a little less on the offensive end. Anyways, if during the season they see that they really need someone else, we have enough cap space to make a trade or simply sign a free agent.

Channing Frye is basically the youngest PF/C that could come at a manageable cost, that can run the floor well, that has an outside game to complement Bosh, has the size and length and the skill level needed to be on this team. You can check his scouting report at (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Channing-Frye-85/). It actually reminds me of Bargnani last year, the only difference is, Channing Frye can get his rebounds. And I'm sure that just like Bargnani, once Frye gets constant minutes, he'll blossom as he did in his rookie season, and as Bargnani did in the second half of this season.

These guys would sign because :
1. Frye would get more money here than in Portland and more playing time.
2. Ross would get more money here than in Memphis and more playing time.
3. Haislip gets to come back in the NBA, and get more money.

The truth about it is, Bosh is an all star and an Olympian gold medalist. Bargnani is a player who has just now shown signs that he GETS IT and he's done it in the second half of a dismal season, against poor defence. I feel like he will grow to be a solid player; but he's just not as good as Bosh. As we speak, Bosh is adding the three point range to his arsenal. There's only about a 2 year difference between the two. And like I said, to get the players they need, the only valuable trading chip they have is Bargnani.

by Childlike on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Raps are not trading Bargnani. End discussion.

by utes on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Childlike - the concept you have is right.. the process is wrong.

1) Bosh is the player to use as trade bait... AB is the player to stay. Why keep Bosh around for 1 more year just to see him walk.

2) Why bring in an a player as inconsitent as Crawford? The guy can be a great player when he is on... but can loose you a game by himself when he is off. Not to mention the Raps would still need to bring back a big in return aswell (ie. Turiaf or Biendrins) Azubuike would be a nice addition though..

3) Looking at the roster you propose, do you really think the raps will be any better? Yeah they may be a little more athletic at sg... but they loose everywhere else.

by SwirskysSoldier on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

wow. i would probably cry if our team looked like that next season. trading bargs would be a mistake, especially since he looks to be a future all-star especially when trading for 2 sgs who have never done much in their careers.

the more i watch the raps, the more i can see this team succeed when healthy. when humps comes back, it would be a huge boost to the bench. also bosh is playing extremely great, but his contract is still an issue, and it would be hard to let him go.

i am looking forward to next season as i belive this team just needs a few adjustments to compete with the best in this league. the team is beginning to get some chemistry and are understanding trianos system, which is great and this team will be looking great next season, for sure.

by tea time on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Childlike - super in-depth post, I'll probably re-post tomorrow for discussion's sake as there are some interesting points I think that can be taken from it.

Was at the Hawks' game tonight and the match did nothing to make me think that the current Raptors' squad (minus copious doses of O'Bryant and Douby) couldn't beat the Hawks in a 7 game series.

I'm sure we'll get into this more tomorrow though...

by Franchise on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks Franchise,

Looking forward to see what you have to say. I know there might some flaws in my way of thinking, but I also feel I was thorough in most of my assessments.

by Childlike on Apr 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

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Margaret

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by Margaret on Sep 3, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions