Figures and Facts - Should the Raptors be a Playoff Team over the 76ers?
"We’re not far off."
"We’re pretty close."
"If we had this team all year, we’d have home-court advantage in the playoffs."
"I’d put us up there with Chicago and Philadelphia…"
And on and on…
If you followed the last few weeks in Raptorland you heard all of the above comments and various other permutations of them.
And considering that Toronto finished the season on a respectable 9 and 4 run, it might be tempting to believe that this club, as presently composed and healthy, was indeed more worthy than its 33 and 49 record would indicate.
But is that the case?
I mean, was the 2008-09 version of the Toronto Raptors, especially that group which finished the final month of the season with a record over .500, actually a playoff caliber team, even in the beleaguered Eastern Conference? I thought it might be interesting to take a closer look.
To do this, I decided to examine things from a statistical standpoint, using a myriad of basketball stats from some of the game’s top math wizzes; the folks at 82games.com, John Hollinger, and David Berri, the man behind the "Wages of Wins."
Now, I work in analytics outside of RaptorsHQ so I realize that what follows is by no means a purely scientific assessment. What I really wanted was the ability to examine only data from the post-Jermaine O’Neal trade period for both teams in terms of sample size, but without having all of the raw data and a way to chop it up, that proved impossible at this point in time.
However that’s not to say we don’t get some interesting results in any event. So let’s dive in and start with a comparison between the Toronto Raptors, and the Philadelphia 76ers. Was the final version of the Raptors worthy of spot in the playoffs over the 76ers?
1) Starting Unit Efficiency:
82games.com has an interesting section that examines each team’s top 5-man units. It looks at various combinations so it’s therefore quite possible to compare Toronto’s starting five through the final few months, to that of Philadelphia’s. I felt this comparison was quite important because it’s been well documented that the Raptors’ starting unit holds up quite well and is one of the league’s top-scoring units.
Case in point – the Raptors won 60 per cent of their first quarters, sixth-best in the league. However after that, it was all downhill. The Dinos were one of the four worst teams in terms of winning percentage after the second quarter and didn’t fare much better in the third.
Interestingly, Philly’s results were essentially a carbon copy.
The 76er starters were a percentage point behind Toronto in terms of winning percentage after the first quarter and were actually WORSE in the second, finishing second last in the league to only Sacramento.
Therefore it’s not surprising that things were pretty close statistically between Toronto’s starting five of Calderon, Parker, Marion, Bosh and Bargs and Philly’s crew of Miller, Green, Iguodala, Young and Dalembert. The Raptors’ group had a winning percentage of only 27% but had similar numbers in terms of points per possession, and points allowed.
In addition, both clubs had similar "effective" field goal percentages (field goal percentage adjusted for the value of the 3-point shot) but Philly was the slightly superior defensive club, allowing an effective field goal percentage of 51% from their opponents as opposed to 55% from the Raps.
Finally, on the glass, the Raptors sported a 47% rebounding rate while the 76ers were superior in that capacity, nearly 51%.
Just based on those numbers alone one could reason that things would be pretty even between these two clubs after essentially the first quarter. It’s when the teams would be forced to go to their benches that things might get sketchy.
Advantage – Toronto slightly.
2) Bench Efficiency:
For starters, the 76ers don’t play a good portion of their bench many minutes. Take last night’s game against Orlando as an example; only Theo Ratliff and Louis Williams played over 10 minutes while the likes of Reggie Evans, Royal Ivey and gasp, Donyell Marshall got between four and eight minutes of burn. Contrast this to the Raptors who at times this past season played Jason Kapono, Joey Graham, Roko Ukic and even Jake Voskuhl for extended periods.
It’s hard therefore to do an accurate comparison, as rarely did Philadelphia not have at least two starters on the floor with the second group. As we know, the Raptors on the other hand sometimes had Roko, JK, Graham, and guys like Hump, Big Jake or Pops out there with either Bosh or Bargs.
Therefore instead of looking at the effectiveness of various combinations of bench units, I thought it might be more interesting to look at the PER, ESPN stat guru John Hollinger’s measure of a player’s efficiency, for each option for each team off the pine. I’ve always been a strong believer in this measure in terms of gauging players’ individual values and in fact, the use of this metric in this scenario is quite telling.
The average PER for the Raptors’ bench group that finished off the year, that is to say Jason Kapono (8.97), Roko Ukic (9.84), Joey Graham (11.99), Pops Mensah-Bonsu (14.73), Patrick O’Bryant (11.65) and Quincy Douby (10.26) was 11.24 – not exactly anything to write home about. (I didn’t include Marcus Banks or Kris Humphries obviously because of injury, and Nathan Jawai and Jake Voskuhl were eliminated as well due to insufficient playing time.)
Looking at Philadelphia’s back-up group, the numbers were very revealing. Their top six players off the bench, that is to say Reggie Evans (10.42), Royal Ivey (7.67), Theo Ratliff (12.01), Marreese Speights (18.01), Louis Williams (16.39) and Donyell Marshall (18.97) had an average PER of 13.91.
This difference in average PER (13.91 to 11.24) is a big one. Considering that the league average in terms of PER is 15.00, you see just how far away Toronto’s back-ups were from being able to effectively keep the Dinos in games with the starters sitting out.
Now as mentioned, you won’t see any five of these six on the court together at once for either team but the point here is that Philadelphia certainly had a lot more effective options to turn to then did the Raptors. As a result, while the starting units for both teams were close in various statistical areas, bench metrics were much further apart.
Advantage Philly.
3) Team Statistics:
Earlier in this post I discussed the difficulty of looking at overall team statistics due to the fact that most that I could find, only examined both teams’ bodies of work over an entire season. I of course wanted to scrutinize only that period of time from Shawn Marion’s arrival on the scene because over an entire season, both teams have quite similar statistics.
Neither club ranked well in terms of John Hollinger’s offensive efficiency marks (20th and 22nd respectively for Philly and Toronto) and defensively things weren’t much better (14th and 22nd respectively.) The most revealing team stat on the year to probably no one’s surprise was rebounding rate, where the 76ers were a top 10 team (sixth overall with a rate of 51.2) while Toronto – they finished in the bottom 10 (22nd with a rate of 49.1).
Again, because a good chunk of these stats for both teams are misleading (Philly was missing Elton Brand for part of the season while Toronto had yet to scoop up The Matrix and Pops) I thought that a better way of looking at the team’s effectiveness would be with David Berri’s "wins produced" metric. While Berri doesn’t have a list of all player Wins Produced rankings posted on his site yet, he does have lists of the top and bottom 10% of NBA players regarding "wins produced."
Comparing the two teams, Toronto has a ghastly four players in the bottom 25 regarding "wins produced" (Andrea Bargnani, Jason Kapono, Roko Ukic and Jake Voskuhl) whereas Philly, has but one, Willie Green.
On the flip side, the Raptors Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion and Jose Calderon are all among the top 30 in the league in terms of wins produced, whereas the 76ers have only Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller in the vicinity.
In addition, Philadelphia simply has players that produce a higher amount of wins than does Toronto. On average, each 76 produced 1.65 wins. The Raptors? 1.43.
At first glance that doesn’t look like a huge difference, but if you take out the top 3 Raptors scores provided by Bosh, Calderon and Marion, and do the same for Philly by subtracting Iguodala, Miller and Dalembert, the discrepancy becomes quite large. This only reinforces something we’ve all suspected for quite some time. Yes, the Raptors’ starters are on par with most of the league, but the drop-off to the bench is akin to going from dating Samantha Diaz to dating Samantha Ronson.
One note however regarding the wins produced calculation. It may surprise some that Andrea Bargnani’s name was included on the list of players who produce the fewest (and in fact negative in this case) wins in the league, especially considering his play towards the end of the year. However considering that wins produced is calculated by heavily factoring in rebounding, obviously not a strength for Bargs, and discounts scoring to a great degree, Andrea’s true strength at this point in time, then things become more clear. A full mathematical description of how "wins produced" is calculated can be found here but this paragraph from rotosynthesis should suffice:
"At its simplest, "wins produced" is a measure that looks at offensive and defensive efficiency in one stat. Briefly, offensive efficiency is defined as points scored divided by possessions used, and defensive efficiency is defined as points surrendered divided by possessions used. These efficiencies, as well as several other factors, are combined to produce a player’s calculated production relative to their position average.
The coolest aspect of "wins produced" is the concept of assigning a fixed amount of a win to box score statistics, and as the "wins produced" stat theoretically measures player value independently of teammate caliber, it can be used as a predictor for how a player and team should be expected to produce after player movement (i.e. free agency or trade). The most famous success story for Berri in this capacity is the Allen Iverson/Andre’ Miller trade of 2006. That trade was supposed to benefit Denver, as Iverson is considered an All-time great with Miller just a solid player. Using "Wins Produced", Berri predicted the exact opposite, that Philadelphia would thrive after the trade because Miller was the better player. This was obviously a controversial stance, but Berri’s prediction proved accurate all the way down to the exact number of wins that Philadelphia would end up with that season."
Now is that to say that the "wins produced" is an infallible statistic?
Of course not, but again in this context, I think it’s safe to say that it goes a long way in illustrating not only the gap in talent between the clubs, but also in explaining just what went wrong with the Raps this season. As Mr. Berri put it:
"Toronto employs both Jose Calderon (20th most productive player) and Chris Bosh (26th most productive player). But the Raptors also have Andrea Bargnani (5th least productive), Jason Kapono (6th least productive), Roko Ukic (27th least productive), and Jake Voskuhl (28th least productive). When Toronto fans seek to understand why this season was so unsuccessful, this quartet - that played more than 25% of the team’s minutes - should certainly come to mind.proving just how much of a talent upgrade the Raptors need going into next season."
Advantage - Philly
4) Conclusion:
Looping back to our original question then, was the final version of the Raptors worthy of spot in the playoffs over the 76ers?
I think from our overall analysis above, the answer is no.
That’s not to say it’s out of the question, but considering the defensive issues that plagued the club, and the team’s inability to field anything much greater than a D-League level bench, I wouldn’t rank Toronto in the same class as Philadelphia. (I think Philly’s surprising play against Orlando so far in the playoffs offers some empirical evidence to support this notion as well.)
The bottom line is that from day one, Raptors’ fans were left with a club short on talent after the top five options, and although the situation improved after the trade for Shawn Marion, BC needs to do some major upgrades this off-season.
FRANCHISE
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Wow, you did a lot of number crunching with that one and it seems about right.
Just wanted to mention what an interesting game, the Celtics- Bulls game was last nite. Two points; first, it is amasing to watch a true crunch time performer- Pierce hit 5 straight shots at the end of that game with a defender up on him. As a number of us have said on this site over the past year, the Raptors do not have that kind of scorer and secondly it is amasing how Boston have developed there players. Davis was drafted at 35, Rondo was drafted 21st,Perkins at 27 and Powe at 49 and yet these guys have become exceptional players. So this goes with your point about the Raptors bench, I think the Raptors organization is a complete failure when it comes to nurturing players and bringing them up to their potential.
by Rt on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
nice work on the Raps breakdown. Every now and again stats show the truth.
RT - "it is amasing how Boston have developed there players"
-I agree they have done an amazing job bringing these players along in a short time. The one advantage I think they had though was that the entire team bought into the Celtics plan. They all go out of their way to play defense. Not one of those guys NEED shots and are always willing to give it over to the big 3. They all put in non-stop effort every night. To me this says more about the coach than anything else (I also think have KG as a floor general helps to).
by SwirskysSoldier on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Just another reason why this is by far the best raps site - great write-up Franchise.
Are you going to be looking at the Raps vs other teams then too over the next while? Should be interesting and I think it will show that Toronto was close, but really didn't match up with some of the other clubs.
On the Celtics note, can't believe how amazing their series with the Bulls has been!! Every game down to the wire or OT except one!
by lurker on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Excellent point by Rt re: development of players. The Rap's have been terrible at this, and a lot of the blame must be layed at the feet of Sam Mitchell. Bench players/draft picks just seemed to fester under him... from Bargnani, to Graham. Who knows where we would have been with a real coach? Meanwhile he has a months-long love affair with Jamario Moon. Sam really stagnated things... and not just on offence!
by Observer on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t usually like looking at numbers to gauge a player’s efficiency because so much more goes into a player’s efficiency than the amount of points scored (depending on the position and role of said player).
But I felt vindicated to see A. Bargnani’s being so low, even after this "great" season of his.
My sentiment: trade him while his value is in a peak.
As for talents being stagnant in T.O., I think the advantage Boston has had over the Raptors is that they had three all-star veteran players on their roster. We have seen how KG took Big Baby & Perkins under his wing, how he forced them to be accountable. Rajon had help from Ray Allen. The closest thing we’ve had to veteran leadership on this team is Nesterovic and Parker, they are both great guys but we can’t compare their careers to Boston’s veterans (who also happen to be their team’s best players).
I don’t think we can blame Sam Mitchell for the lack of improvement in Graham either, because his brother didn’t fare much better and they have the same physical attributes. I think that Sam Mitchell’s coaching wasn’t right in general, but I wouldn’t blame him for players not being able to develop. He started slow with Bargnani, before anything else, he wanted Bargnani to be able to defend and grab rebounds (which he still can’t do btw). If I was the coach and I had sent Bargnani out to defend and grab rebounds, he gets on the court and does neither of those two things, I would be mad too (regardless of whether he had made three 3pts shots on the other end). Sam wasn’t the right coach for this team, not with the assistants he had, but he wasn’t the reason players weren’t playing well. After all, Chris Bosh, the all-star and gold medal Olympian, has Sam Mitchell to thank for his rapid progress, and Bosh did it all in less than 3 years while being undersized (or underweight I should say). I’d even add Charlie Villanueva as a guy who was efficient while with the Raptors, under Coach Mitchell.
by Childlike on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I'm not entirely clear on how the PER rating system or the wins produced rating system work. I hadn't heard of the PER system until a couple of weeks ago, and today is the first time I've ever heard of the WP system. I'll have to do some research before I way in on this one.
I would like to comment on the Bulls Celtics series. Who saw this coming? I think it's safe to say we all thought the Celts would have a tough time repeating as champs without KG, but now it looks like they'll be lucky to squeak by Chicago in the first round. Easily the most entertaining series of the playoffs so far. Tough loss in game 5 for the Bulls though. Brad Miller is most certainly not a clutch player.
GO BULLS!!!
Can't agree you guys more in regards to player developement within the Raptors organization. It's frustrating to watch teams like Chicago, Portland, and San Antonio flourish in player development while we seem to flounder year in and year out. AB has shown some signs of life under Triano, hopefully that trend will continue.
Observer,
I really liked Sam. But it is getting harder and harder to defend him. Especially in regards to his basketball IQ and his relationship with his players, particularly the young ones. As well as in light of what Triano and the Raptors were able to accomplish towards the end of the season. It wasn't much, but it was the most inspired play we'd seen from the Raptors all year long. When he was fired at the beginning of the season I really thought he was a fall guy for BC's mistakes, but I'm not so sure anymore.
by Posterized on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I'm a big fan of the WoW's, and I think it validates our general opinion of Kapono being dead weight.
But I also think it has a hard time with Bargnani's peculiar skill set. He's a good scoring 5 and growing into a decent defender, but just not a great rebounder offensively because so much of his game is away from the glass.
One of the interesting tidbits garnered from WoW is that the best player on the Celtics championship team wasn't Garnett, Pierce or Allen - it was Rondo. As a PG who can get decent assists, pts and above average rebounds, he charts out higher than any of the 'big three'. Given how awesome Rondo has been again this year that seems both insightful and prescient. (I do think it makes Jason Kidd overvalued though).
All of which brings me to the Raptors need to upgrade rebounding across the board. Bosh and Marion (if he stays) are good, but outside of them we have few legit glass cleaners - unless Bargs evolves his game.
For me that is the next obvious step - improve Bargs rebounding (especially defensively). If he can learn to clean the glass at 10 per game he's an all-star. If not, he looks like a liability despite his scoring output.
by bedhead on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I do not think much of the stats presented such as PER and WP as so much of basketball is not covered by stats. For example, how often a player taps out a rebound to other players on his team (something that AB does a lot of). Things like saves (ball going out of bounds) and steals created by other players (i.e. player A tips ball to player B who registers the steal). Also, is a blocked shot recovered by the defensive team count as a turn over (steal?) or a rebound? Until the NBA starts creating stats for all of the various variables in a game, it is difficult to rate a players contirbution.
An unrelated thought. I think with the Swine Flu pandemic fears that we should start to wonder whether there will even be a season next season. The trend is showing that we are going towards a pandemic situation and if that is the case, does next season get cancelled or delayed? It is a bit premature but it is something to look at.
by McGateway on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Thx for the links in this post to explaining per and wins produced etc - wasnt too familiar with them but now things make a lot more sense.
I looked over some of the midpoint marks for wages of wins and man, we had some other terrible producing guys too!!! I mean, hassan adams had a negative wins produced mark and even jo wasnt great. Theres a whole article on the jo-ford trade actually on the site - worth a read if you havent.
by fromlongrange on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Childlike:
I am so sure you would rather have Olden, and you would deserve to enjoy him at the fullest. The same guy who his making fun of him has been schooled by Bargnani (twice) that it wasn't even funny at the end. Like it or not, Andra has shown some things that no other big man in the league is able to do. Now, if you want to feel depressed about it, be my guest.
by renato on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
It would be interesting to have someone in the media ask Colangelo; What is it that the Raptors could do to improve their player development?
by Rt on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I saw the Sixers smoke the Raptors in person in the pre season and even then I knew they were a better team deep down. They looked so much taller and bigger then us. I didn't like that at all. Next year if we bring the physicality and toughness then we will be alright.
by Raptors Freak on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Renato:
Are you serious? He has shown some things that no other big has shown?
Everything Bargnani does, Chris Bosh can do it better lol.
Nowitzki rings a bell? Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol, Rasheed Wallace, Kevin Garnett, Lamar Odom, David West... Shoot, Charlie Villanueva is better than Bargnani.
And these are only players that have more flat out more skills than Bargnani. If I were to enumerate the guys that are just better for the Raptors at his position, that list becomes much longer: Biedrins, Turiaf, Pryzbilla, Ilgauskas, Bynum, Okur, Perkins, Davis, Dalembert, Howard, Gortat, Chandler, Nene, Camby, O’neal (Saquille, that is), etc. Now why are these guys better than Bargnani? Because the most important aspect in a center’s role is his ability to grab rebounds and to anchor the defence, now what are Bargnani’s weaknesses? His inability to get rebounds and his lacklustre performance at anchoring the defence.
He has some nice abilities no doubt, but not enough for this team to win a championship next year. And with every other squad getting some playoff experience, I don't even see them getting in the playoffs if the Raps don't change from what I've seen this year.
by Childlike on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Childlike:
I guess we agree we disagree. I did not see Nowizky blowing by Bargnani like he was a pylon but I saw the opposite, several times. Of all those players you mentioned, just KG make he other guys better. At the moment, in clutch time, with Howard you play 4 on 5 on offense.
Bosh, unfortunately for him cannot play with a traditional C (see how it did not work with JO) as he uses the same space on O.
You seem to forget that more often than not Bargnani pulls away the opposing C, making life easier for everybody else. He does not anchor the defense and at this point in time and he hasn't a good help defense but he has an excellent man to man defense. To be honest some of the names you put there are really laughable Gortat? Dalembert? and at this moment in his career... Bynum? I agree he has a great physical potential he has to learn how to play tho.
And to finish, yes Bargnani has some skills no one has shown before, I do not think you have seen before a seven footer changing direction while putting the ball on the floor like Andrea does and I remember he doing it, putting the ball between his legs against Howard and Duncan.
And pls do not forget it is Andrea's play that force them to follow him there as they could not put a smaller guy on him because Andrea would have score on him from the post.
(sorry to make fun of you, but please give me a link of Bosh doing it, possibly faster).
No, they will not win the title next year but that has little to do with Andrea (or Bosh), it is just the rest of the team that needs improvements.
A question for the audience: given the spacing that Bosh needs on offense, is a C like Bargnani/Ilgauskas the only possible paring for him?
by renato on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Hey guys,
There's no doubt AB needs to improve his rebounding. But there IS one thing Bosh can't do better than Bargnani...
...shoot the three.
by Posterized on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
In addition,
what does everyone else think of BC basically giving AB a "get out of jail free" pass on the glass during his press conference. "He'll never be a monster on the glass."
Made me cringe the same way I did when Smitch suggested it would be ok for Hump to force up a couple of ill-advised shots, as long as he rebounded and played defense.
It seems to me that being a center, AB should be able to average better than 5 boards a game.
by Posterized on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Posterized,
I never intended make a comparison between AB and CB, I just wanted to point out that, in his far from perfect game, AB ha shown some unique characteristics that, if AB can build on top of, would make of him a real difference maker. I believe he average is almost 6 reb, but indeed he could do better (to be honest he could do way better if he was playing for his stats but he does not seem to be that way).
Olden, just for going back to my original post, does not seem to have any one thing in which he is unique, that why it seems that AB has more possibilities to improve. To be honest he seemed (physically) much better when he was 17. Anyway, time will tell.
by renato on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Hey Renato,
it's cool, I get what you were saying. It was Childlike who said "Everything Bargnani does, Chris Bosh can do it better lol." But I suspect he may have been kidding. My comment was light hearted as well. I would have put a winky face at the end of it to show that it was said tongue in cheek, but I didn't want to get made fun of. I'm new to the HQ so I'm not sure how well emoticons go over around here.
by Posterized on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I think Colangelo's "we're not that far off" can be applied to many NBA team's in general. The addition of one or two players makes more of a difference then in the other major sports, due to a smaller roster size. However, the physical requirements of being an NBA player (especially a big) shrink the player pool to the point that its as important to be lucky as it is to be good when adding to your team.
Re Bargnani, regardless of whether he improves his rebounding, we still need strong glass cleaning from the SF spot. If we're going to play uptempo, we need to generate as many possessions as we can. I'm hopeful that either James Johnson or Earl Clark will impress in workouts enough to fill that role for us. Marion is a great complement, but I feel we should get more in terms of shot-creation and shooting from that spot in the lineup. Otherwise, the pressure on the shooting guard is immense.
RT, regarding player development the Raptors are doing a few of the right things, at least from a fan's perspective. They've made us of the D-league on a few occasions (Tucker, Slokar, and Jawai). They were proactive in sending an assistant coach to monitor Moon in the lead up to last, last season. In the years they haven't had a second round pick, they've hosted free agent camps, Moon was the product of one as was Adams. Assistant coach Herbert helped Ukic with his shot, and Bargs with his post game. They send physical therapist Ray Chow to join Calderon's Spanish team in the most recent Olympics. The hiring of Iavroni should help their bigmen, since its reputed to be a specialty of his. Last but not least, once BC had breathing room from the JO deal he signed/traded young end-of-benchers such Pops, Douby, and Bryant. It looks like Bryant is gonna be this season's bigman reclamation project. And even if he doesn't pan out, someone's got to play the last few minutes of a blowout anyway.
I wouldn't give too much credit to the Celtics for Davis and Powe, beyond making the picks in the first place. They both fit into the trend of overachieving undersized power forwards. To succeed at that size, tenacity and hard work are a prerequisite. I will agree that having a dedicated big man coach in Clifford Ray is likely to have helped on some level.
Posterized, the statement "never be a monster on the glass" is far from a jail-free card. Its like saying Jose will never be a shutdown defender, or Graham a point forward. I intrepret it as an acknowledgement that his strengths lay elsewhere, and his job is to make the necessary roster adjustments to compensate.
by yardly on Apr 29, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Renato:
I just don’t see how or where you were making fun of me. You want to talk about a big being able to cross the ball between his legs? That’s what makes Bargnani good?!?
Have you ever seen Chris Webber play? If you want a display of skills at the big man position check him out, he could do all of that AND grab rebounds (even when his body was banged up).
Yessss! Chris Bosh does everything Bargnani does… Better
Rebounds: well that’s a given, Bosh
PPG: Bosh
Assists: Bosh
FTA: Bosh
And a three point shot, Bosh can make that, he did it to win the game remember? But that’s not the shot I want Bosh to be taking anyway! He’s helping the team a whole lot more from 15-18 ft to the basket because at his size, if chooses to go to the basket, help defence won’t get to stop him in time, he has more options to score.
I can’t believe we’re having an argument about who’s the better player! This is absurd. I suppose your point is to say that Bargnani is also a better player than Nowitzki right… Btw, I don’t Dirk is a complete player neither, but he’s still a couple notches above Bargnani. Bargnani has proven he can be good offensively mainly against sub .500 teams. Be real for a minute.
Furthermore, the reason why Bargnani has had some success at center is because most centers are slower, Bargnani CAN’T guard PFs and SFs, because they’re too fast.
by Childlike on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Childlike - I think you are talking out of your A** if you don't think AB can cover PF's. I agree he cannot cover SFs on regular basis but on any given possesion he can (I have seen him do it against SGs and PGs). There is no doubt he needs to improve his game still but he is only a 3rd year player and he still has room to grow and I think that is where Renato believes AB is the better player. Bosh has pretty much hit his ceiling while AB still has more potential. Rebounding is overrated as it is easier to find someone who rebounds (Pops) then it is to find a 7 footer who can shoot the 3 and score 20 points a game. I am not saying that I agree that AB is better than Bosh only that his ceiling might be higher. If you believe that AB can be as good as Dirk (plus or minus a little), then you have to ask yourself, who would you rather build your team around, Dirk (AB) or Bosh? Considering that Dirk has had a lot more success then Bosh, I think the answer is obvious in that light.
P.S. - This is merely hypothetical as it is difficult to compare players like this due to roster differences. Dirk has had more talent around him for most of his career while Bosh has not.
by McGateway on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Okay, I’m happy you covered the roster aspect. I would rather have Bosh than Nowitzki to answer your question btw. The only thing Bosh can really improve on at this point is putting some weight.
If by having reached his ceiling you mean that he hits his jumper at a very good percentage, that he attacks the basket, forces opposing teams to accumulate fouls, and rebounds then yeah, he has reached his ceiling. But that’s only because he can’t do much better. Except maybe being a perfect shooter. But Bosh MUST gain some weight.
Bargnani still has some growth… I would say Bargnani still has to prove he can play well against good teams consistently. The stretch he had was mainly against sub .500 teams as the Raptors’ schedule became much easier after the New Year and that when Bargnani started to get going.
I don’t think Bargnani is as good as Nowitzki, at this point in their careers. But let’s talk about Dirk, since that’s who Andrea seems to aspire to be. Dirk has had top notch talent around him every year and has not been able to get very far in the playoffs. That’s telling… Their particular skill set (Andrea’s & Dirk’s) just does not get the job done. Playing away from the basket doesn’t force opposing teams to commit fouls. For Dallas to win, the star player should be someone else.
by Childlike on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Dirk has made a finals while Bosh has yet to get out of the first round.
by McGateway on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Dirk has been regular season MVP while Bosh has yet to be considered.
by Posterized on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Re: Bosh vs Bargnani vs Nowitzki
There is no question that I rank them; Nowitzki, Bosh, Bargnani.
But like several other posters I think Bargnani has yet to reach his ceiling, whereas Bosh is pretty much at his. Not that that is a bad thing, being a 20-10 guy who can play defense and run the floor is a pretty high ceiling, but Nowitzki is still a notch above.
As for AB, he can reach Dirk status by; rebounding better - something Dirk is very good at despite often floating away from the offensive glass, increasing his shot efficiency (less threes, more mid-range/close-in/dunks), and overall better defense.
Its worth noting that AB has the potential to be this kind of player.
Childlike; the argument wasn't whether Bosh is better than Bargs, but whether Bosh is better at EVERYTHING than Bargs - and he simply isn't. Bargs has a long range game that Bosh will never possess, and I honestly believe that Bargs ability to generate blocks is also superior. That isn't to diminish Bosh in any way, he's still the man - but if Bargs can put all his tools into the same tool-box for a full season he could be the man2.
The first key IMO though, is rebounding. Without that element, Bargs becomes an oversized-underscoring 3.
by Bedhead on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
McGateway :
Why even bring it there, you said it yourself, Nowitzki has had a better squad around him than Bosh every year. I hope he’d be able to get past the first round. When have the Raptors ever had players as good as Jason Terry or Josh Howard or Devin Harris? When’s the last time we had a big body in the middle to get rebounds and anchor the defence like Dampier? Don’t even bring it there. That’s like saying Kobe Bryant wasn’t good enough when the Lakers hadn’t made the playoffs.
I was looking at the stats line on espn.com for both Bosh and Bargnani because I felt like I could talk until I was blue in the face and you probably still wouldn’t get it, but comparing Bosh’s SECOND (even his first) season to Bargnani’s THIRD, Bosh has Andrea beat in every single category.
Just for your won pleasure:
Andrea’s THIRD and best season by far:
15.4 ppg; 1.2 assts; 5.3 rebs; 1.2 blocks; 0.4 steals; 3.4 fta
Chris’ SECOND season:
16.8 ppg; 1.9 assts; 8.9 rebs; 1.4 blocks; 0.9 steals; 6.7 fta
Chris’ FIRST season:
11.5 ppg; 1 assts; 7.4 rebs: 1.4 block; 0.8 steals; 3.8 fta
The only time they should even be mentioned in the same sentenced is at Bosh’s first year. Talking out of my A$$… When I say cover a PF or a SF, I don’t mean when they’re coming off a screen, I’m talking about covering them man to man, which is what they were trying to make him do prior to moving him at center. Around the time Bargnani was seen as a huge liability for missing defensive assignments and when he would always pick up two quick fouls coming into games because he couldn’t keep up on defence. Please people, try and think back to his career before January 1st 2009.
by Childlike on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Just a note about BC's free-pass to Bargs on the glass. I've heard him say this now a few times and his argument isn't so much that he doesn't want Andrea to be a good rebounder, but he's acknowledging that his style of play (outside to in) isn't as condusive to big rebounding numbers as a player who plays inside to out (like Dwight Howard)'s style is. So not a free pass, just an acknowledgement that based on the club's make-up, the team still needs some help in that area.
Also, yardly, interesting point about "not being that far off." One thing I neglected to mention in my analysis was that one or two players can make a big difference in the NBA as opposed to say the NHL. So if the Raptors can even get a solid player or two off the bench for next season, we may see various PER and WP stats improve dramatically.
by Franchise on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Childlike:"Just for your won pleasure:
Andrea’s THIRD and best season by far:
15.4 ppg; 1.2 assts; 5.3 rebs; 1.2 blocks; 0.4 steals; 3.4 fta
Chris’ SECOND season:
16.8 ppg; 1.9 assts; 8.9 rebs; 1.4 blocks; 0.9 steals; 6.7 fta
Chris’ FIRST season:
11.5 ppg; 1 assts; 7.4 rebs: 1.4 block; 0.8 steals; 3.8 fta "
Okay you might not be Bargsbust afterall =P
Anyways with the stats your bring up, you can look at it your way or you can look at it this way:
Bosh has reached his ceiling in a much faster pace than Bargnani. Bargnani is developing at a snail's pace compared to Bosh but at the same time, Bargs might have a longer distance to travel. Bad analogy but you get the point. lol
I guess 5-6 rebounds a game for an outside shooting bigman aint too bad. I predict next year that number will be up to 7 or 8 and at his peek, Bargs will probably average 9.
by Aaron on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Yeah, I guess we can argue the same about Pops too right! With some time he might become a better offensive player, same goes for Graham and Kris Humphries.
Anyways, I don’t want Bargnani to be a bust; he’s worthless to the Raptors if he is one. But people have to realize that he is not what you make him out to be. I think the reason why he didn’t perform well under Mitchell, is that Bargnani wasn’t playing center under Smitch, when Andrea moved to center, his defensive deficiencies were hidden and so he looked better. But the flashes of brilliance on offense were always present on offence; he shut me up many times when I felt he was taking an ill advised shot. But at 7ft, he cannot be a poor defender and a bad rebounder. And as BC has said, he just doesn’t think Bargnani will ever be a better rebounder than what he is right now. The only reason why you say Bosh has reached his ceiling is because there’s not much more he can do! Bargnani’s ceiling is still way up there because there’s soooo much room for improvement.
by Childlike on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Childlike:"Yeah, I guess we can argue the same about Pops too right! With some time he might become a better offensive player, same goes for Graham and Kris Humphries. "
Yea I guess you can use the same argument the same way for these people. They will reach their ceiling (of course theirs is much lower), either slower or faster depending on the type of person they are.
my point is some people take longer and some quicker. Some have higher ceilings and some lower. For Bargs, he seems to have a higher ceiling but slower development compared to Bosh who has lower ceiling (which is pretty good still) but quicker development. Now was that hard to understand? I think it's just silly to say that Give Kris Humphreys some time and he will be an offensive Juggernut.
by Aaron on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
ok enough with the stats. bosh had to step up and be the man after VC left. so obviously his numbers went way up and since he had to be the man he started to play better. now bargnani is playing behind bosh, who is still the leader of our team until we trade him of course, lol maybe. so his numbers will increase as well as bargs will have to step up his game. so bargs still has potential to be a really good player and we've seen plenty of game this season to understand he has a lot of room to grow still.
bargs may not be a great rebounder but what he does is unique and i think it would translate well and win us more games. he pulls his man away from the paint because of his shooting ability which is great because not only that he can score but that means he can give a pass to another player to score while there center (who childlike believes anchors the defense) would be away from the paint alowing more scoring opportunities for the other players. also bargnani's defense is much improved and will only get better (he did lead us in blocks this year) and we just need to relax and give him time to improve.
by tea time on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
In relation to stats it may be worth it to keep in mind the team on which Nowitzky and Bosh started playing, put their development as the team main goal, maybe a little less for Bosh who started with Carter in the team, Moreover Nowitzky used to play with Steve Nash with a coach implementing a run and gun style; both factors inflating his stats. Andrea still does not play in a system designed to maximize his production. Hopefully the situation should change from next season where the Raptors coaching staff will walk into training camp having clear Bargs could/should be a primary weapon for the team.
My original post in reply to childlike however was not a comparison with Bosh at all, actually I was comparing Andrea and Olden careers jocking on the fact that Childlike, even now would go for Olden.
by renato on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I think that the Barg busters are going to be singing a new tune by the end of next year. There were many times in the last couple of years that I swore he would never be a real basketball player because I didn't see him having any basketball instincts. The thing is though, that Bargs is a learner. Initially he was limited to a top of the key three and a head down drive to the basket. Watching him get the ball down near the basket was pitiful as we watched him throw up panic shots. I don't think "pass" was a word in his vocabulary. Blockout and rebound were English words with no Italian translation. After Christmas I give him every credit for expanding his game. He eliminated the head down charges with a middle of the key pull up jumper. When players guarded the three, he added a fake and went by them. When teams put a forward on him, he took them low. When Chris passed out to him, Bargs snapped it back in to Chris. Does he blockout perfectly? No but I'll bet that he'll come back next Sept a lot more muscular and you'll see bodies flying. He's had a revelation and he's obviously working hard to make himself a complete player. I've quit betting against him because he's shown me that he is "getting it" and next year he'll show everybody.
by melon on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Franchise,
I still say it's a free pass for AB on the rebounding. Not to beat a dead horse here, but Nowiztki and AB play similar games and Nowiztki still manages to pull down 8 or 9 boards a game. I don't see why Bargnani shouldn't be expected to put up similar numbers on the boards. He is a legit seven foot center, it's one of his resposibilities. Don't get me wrong, I'm not Bargs hater. I'm actually a convert much like Melon, I just think rebounding is where he needs to improve his game. And I don't like BC essentially saying he never will. We all know what Bargs is capable of offensively, now lets see what he can do on defence.
I understand that AB averaging an extra 3 boards will not cure our defence, a rebounding SF or SG will have to be brought in, but it's a good start.
by Posterized on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Does the league have a bet on the Bulls Celtics series?????
Rondo should of not played tonight due to the foul on Millar last game. Then tonights action......This smells...Does the league want Celtics against the Cavs? winner plays Lakers???This really smells.....
by Davl on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Davl,
couldn't agree more. Rondo clearly was not going for the ball. He was trying for the hard foul (he said as much in his post game interview)and ended up slapping/fish hooking Miller. I think it's funny that Rondo got nothing, but D-Wade got a flagrant for trying to block from behind and Howard got a game for elbowing Dalembert. Mind you Howard SHOULD get a game, but some consistency would be nice.
It's interesting to watch the playoffs when you don't have a vested interest in a team. You can watch the game more objectively. Personaly, I think some (not all or even half) but some of the officiating has been suspect.
by Posterized on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Posterized
I posted this before and I will again
"The teams who pay the luxery tax have an advantage from the league"
Regardless what a great game again tonight GO BULLS 2ND OVERTIME!
by Davl on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

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