Gazing Into A Crystal Ball
What a weekend. Other than the 30 minute hurricane that struck Toronto the weather was solid, there was some crazy basketball (meet Ben Gordon and Hedo!) and of course for football fans, there was the NFL Draft.
Really, could you ask for more?
The obvious answer is "Yes, the Raps could be in one of these crazy playoff match-ups!" but we all know that Raptor basketball is far off. There is a lot to be done before fans can start getting excited about the ball bouncing at the ACC once again.
The coach situation is still unsettled.
The roster needs to be rebuilt.
The future of the star player is still up in the air.
So what lies ahead?
Well, whether I think these are the right or wrong moves (to be discussed later), this is my best guess at what transpires this summer. I could be bang on, or I could be completely off. I'd love to hear what others think lies on the horizon for this franchise.
1.Jay Triano will be the head coach and will sign a three year extension
Colangelo was sure to tell the media at his end of season press conference that all the players had the up-most respect for Triano. Colangelo also made it clear that he will sit down with Triano before meeting any other coaches to discuss the season past and the season coming. If BC was seriously considering looking for a new head coach wouldn't he be out there trying to line-up candidates and looking to establish who was interested and/or available? Washington already secured Flip Saunders. The coaching carousel is a fast one and BC doesn't seem inclined to get on.
2.Marc Iavaroni is Jay's number one assistant
Unfortunately at the BC press conference we didn't get the chance to ask what Iavaroni was doing with the team and what he accomplished while there. His response could have been very telling. This is obviously a shot in the dark, but I can't help but think that Marc is somehow involved with the Raps this coming season. Adding him as an assistant coach would likely be a dream scenario for BC in that he gets to keep Triano at a reasonable cost, while brining in someone he likely considered as a head coach at one point. There will be a number of different coaching faces this upcoming season and I would guess Iavaroni is one.
3.Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino will be wearing familiar jerseys
Based on Colengelo's comments about Delfino you would think "Count Chocula" could have saved this past season single handedly had he not been 'ballin abroad. That is definitely not the case, but the message to Delfino is clear. The Raps want him back and are ready to negotiate. It was clear last summer that league-wide interest in Delfino is not high so hopefully, BC realizes that he will likely be negotiating against no-one but himself. Delfino is a 7th or 8th guy on a Championship team and should be paid accordingly.
Parker is in a different situation in that he is completely free to sign with anyone he so chooses. There will definitely be options for Parker and I expect him to explore all of them. I don't expect him to leave a comfortable situation in Toronto to sign with a mediocre team. I think the only true competition the Raps will have in re-signing him will come from teams with legitimate title aspirations. The chance at a Championship may be an offer he just can't refuse. Teams that come to mind? How about Los Angeles, where he would also be closer to his sister? Parker has indicated he would come back and even play some back-up PG for this team if that was what was asked. He also recognized that the economy is not exactly favouring him signing a big contract this summer. If you were heading into free agency after having started for three straight seasons, would you be making these sorts of statements if you weren't already committed in your mind to coming back at a reasonable price?
4. Marion gets overpaid...by another team
At this point in time I think Colangelo would like to re-sign Marion at a reasonable price. The problem is, based on his track record, Marion won't be looking for a "reasonable price". This summer Marion will have his agent calling every team in the league looking to secure a substantial deal and then asking Toronto to help make it happen.
Marion will not only be looking for a place that will pay him handsomely, helping to limit the pay cut he is inevitably going to have to take, but a team where he can be featured and where they play to his strengths. The Knicks are the obvious possibility but there will be other teams like Atlanta, Cleveland, or even Golden State that may come into play. Colangelo will somehow extract value out of Shawn Marion despite him being a UFA. It may be by signing him to a reasonable deal, but I am guessing it is by helping another team secure his services.
5. The Raps are active in the draft
In these economic times rookie salary contracts are going to be very valuable. The easiest way to find players who can produce at a high level at a reasonable cost is through the draft. At the same time, some teams are so close to paying the luxury tax that they are not going to be able to take advantage. I expect Colangelo to leverage the poor financial circumstances of other teams to either buy an extra pick or extract a pick in some other way (say, with an expiring contact). This Raptors team is short on young talent and is not particularly deep. The answer is to draft NBA ready players, in particular players that exhibit that toughness that is currently missing. I expect the Raps to target a big man (likely a PF) and a swingman. Players that come to mind right away would include Terrence Williams, DeJuan Blair and even Tyler Hansborough (albeit much later on in the draft).
6. Say So Long to CB4
I fully expect CB4 to be moved this summer and nothing that BC said at his press conference changed my mind. This summer Colangelo controls the process and I expect it to play out as follows. Bosh, his representatives and BC will meet where the Raps will offer Bosh an extension. He will decline. Colangelo, knowing that the longer this plays out the less options he will have, will quietly explore the market for Bosh. When the rumours get out this summer he will simply say that no-one is untouchable and he is looking to improve the team any way he can. He will find a trading partner and he will defend the deal by saying the deal made sense for the long term stability of the franchise and in was in the best interest of the team. Fans will be unhappy and some will likely question what BC gets in return (because it won't include Wade, or James) but the smart one's will realize whatever BC gets this summer will be better than what he would have gotten later on. The deal will (hopefully) include a back-up PG and a quality 2/3.
7. Money will be spent on a new PF
If order to help ease the sting of having traded away the face of the franchise, BC will look to sign another PF who is on the market. As of now there will be some interesting possibilities out there including David Lee (RFA), Paul Millsap (RFA), Charlie Villaneuva (UFA) and possibly Carlos Boozer (opt-out). Not a bad back-up plan if you ask me.
Having written this I am not sure how I would feel if this is what went down this summer. Right now these are my best predictions. Some of them seem much more plausible than others, but all of them are distinct possibilities.
What do you see happening this summer?
HOWLAND
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Solid predictions,
I have no predictons of my own, but I do have some thoughts.
I think at least 1 through 3 are a lock. Unfortunately, I also think Bosh will be gone this summer. It would be a hell of a loss but it only makes sense if he refuses an extention this summer.
Also, if Delphino and Parker do come back I hope they come off the bench. I'm a huge Parker fan. He's a very positive influence in the locker. He's a great talent who comes without any personality hang-ups. Delphino could bring a little energy and toughness to an otherwise soft team. But they are definately second unit guys. Between Ukic, Parker and Delphino, we could have a great mix of energy, grit, experience and versitility at the guard positions on the second unit.
Hopefully, if we do have to send Bosh packing, we can bring a legit two or three or both for the starting line up.
As a side note (pure fantasy here), but I would love to see O.J. Mayo in a Raptors uniform. Probably never going to happen, but I like his game.
by Posterized on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I hope to see McDyess in a Raptor uniform. He just seems like the Oak type veteran player we need to add that toughness.
by Anthony on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Great post and I think you are spot on with all of your 7 points. Would love to see David Lee's rebounding and 16ppg in a raptor uniform. I'd prefer to see Anthony Parker or Delfino here next year but not both, their skills seem redudant to me. You were also spot on with Terrence Williams being a good option but I'm not sold on Blair, somehow I think he'll be eaten alive on the defensive end and not effective offensively because of his physical attributes (hefty and slow).
by Member29 on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Why does everyone take for granted that there is no better time to rid ourselves of Bosh? I think, if Bosh wants to go elsewhere, having Bosh come off the books with a sign and trade in 2010 is a great opportunity for us. Right now you are looking at one or two teams that would give up a lot for a one year rental. In 2010, you are looking at 29 teams, many of which have cleared out cap space to go after Bosh. Bosh will want a sign and trade because of the extra $ that goes along with it.
Bosh is going no where because BC is a smart GM. You wait till 2010, see what Bosh wants to do and you have lot’s of options at that point.
Posterized, of course Bosh will not accept an extension this summer. This is not a reflection of his desires to be or not to be here, it’s just economic common sense.
Bosh is the best player we have and a key piece to build around, not someone to ship out with a ‘we’re not worthy’ chant in the background.
by Zona on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I don't have any real predictions, outside of what has already been discussed. I would love to see Iavaroni brought in, and I think it will happen. It gives Colangelo an easy option to replace Triano if things don't work out for whatever reason.
In terms of Bosh being shipped out, I can definitely see it happening, and if it does, I like that it will happen on our terms, instead of on Bosh's terms.
I also agree that the Raptors will try and move up in the draft to try and get Jennings or Rubio. If they are looking at Rubio, then I think that the Clippers would be looking to make a deal. They have Baron under lock down basically until his wheels fall off, and don't need another premiere point guard. I just don't know who the raps would take back (outside of Camby and Kaman) - and neither of those guys plus a pick or two would be worth it.
If it is Jennings, then I would love to see a deal swung with the Wizards for Jamieson and Butler + the pick (Jennings) for Bosh and Banks and our pick. The Wiz are in massive financial trouble and it is becoming more and more clear that the trio of stars just isn't going to cut it. Jamieson will be old, but not completely washed up by the time his deal runs out, and will be a decent replacement for the production we lose in Bosh. The Wiz get a premiere player to play with Arenas, and can get out from under a ton of salary if they don't want to resign Bosh.
Other than that, I don't see many chances to move up in the draft. There's speculation that the raps want Tayshaun Prince from Detroit. If they wanted to go that way, I'd be alright (though not elated) with a Bosh for Prince, Stucky + a pick kind of move.
Obviously, none of these are ideal situations - except maybe the Wiz option.
Nevertheless, I would love to see Ben Gordon in a Raps uniform. Is there any hope in the world that we could get Turkoglu and Gordon in a raps uniform for the price of one 2008 Shawn Marion?
by Casey on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I too believe that BC will keep Bosh until at least 2010 to see what is intentions are. If the 09/10 season is an improvement then Bosh won't be going anywhere but if the season looks bad at the trade deadline then you will see BC explore is options with Bosh to a team that is in the runnings for a Championship....but other wise Bosh will get an extension for 4 years at $15mil a year. ...Bosh will be a Raps4Life.
by RAPS4LIFE on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
does anyone else salivate at the thought of von wafer on the raptors....just got a good vibe about him
by fizzle on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
1. Jay T as coach: Yes
2. Marc Iavoroni as assistant: Yes
3. AP and Flipper wearing Raptors red: No and Yes.
4. Marion leaving: Yes
5. Raps active in the draft: I think he will try to be, but fail.
6. CB4 out the door: Yes. I hold out hope we can get Biedrins and Bellinelli in a deal with GS, or Beasely in a pkg with Miami.
7. $ on new PF: Maybe, but I think the chances are less than 50/50
by bedhead on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
JT back, 3yrs = yes
AP back = 75/25, Delfino = yes
Marion gone = yes, via S&T = 50/50
Active draft = Bedhead's answer
Cb4 Gone = 50/50
FA PF = yes (if CB4 traded)
If BC gets a good offer (including two players at positions of need (above-average starter + rotation player) Bosh is gone baby gone. The upheaval of trading him mid-season can't be underestimated, would be worse then the Marion deal since more bodies coming back.
Bonus points if we trade with a team that's under the cap, thereby adding to our existing cap space. Having extra cap space at a time when the cap is going down is an asset as well. Last but not least, the 2010 draft is shaping up to be loaded. If we have to trade him anyway, let's do it quick, like ripping off a bandaid.
by yardly on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I have the official plan:
First of all, Bosh is gone. Face it. He wants to play with another star and is smart enough to not say so in the meantime.
So moving the man is job one, and a fleecing will be done on Miami. Miami will be coming up strong, but short this playoff. Wade will want help and Bosh is the man. So, they will give up the future star Beasley for a guaranteed star today in Bosh. But there is more. This would make Haslem redundant and he’d be coming as well. Haslem would not put up with not being a starter, which is ironic because with the Brittle Brothers up front, he’d start more than either one of them. Also coming would be Mark Blount and his fat contract. Going back to restock the Heat front court would be Kris Humphries. Salaries would match up. BC would probably throw in a future number 1 to get it done, justifying the acquisition of Beasley as enough young and the expiring contracts of Blount and Haslem as a chance to buy picks later anyway.
In one trade he’d get a 3/4, whose defence would have us crying for Jamario Moon back but can score, a tough starting 4, and some cap room.
Miami gets a shot at the title, and misses the playoffs, while the Raps make the playoffs and have a future.
From that Fleecing, we move on:
2) Delfino and Parker coming back. They fill out the bench or starters spots while we develop and search for a bonafide 2 guard.
3) The Draft: Draft a future star wing man. This could be a Rozen, Clark, Evans, or Williams. Chance they may take a point like Jennings, if he is around, but I’m thinking the best wing will come aboard. They play behind Parker and Delfino, but have the possibility of becoming starters always on the horizon.
4) Buy another pick. I’m thinking that they go for another wing here, Omri Crespi, or back up big like Hansborough.
5) Still weak at the point, so there may be some jigging on here, but I’m locking in on this answer.
by EaseMyPain on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Good lord,
if Beasley is withing sniffing distance of this team next year, I may just pull whats left of my hair out one strand at a time.
by Posterized on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Hmmm... take a team that is already lacking a strong identity and personality, and add in..... Michael Beasley?
That could reduce us to Clipper status.
by Observer on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
What? Beasley a head case?
Kind of think that the Bulls will be a little reluctant to trade Rose.
Bargnani was lazy, now he's our cornerstone. The kid has to grow like most of the players, most of whom have been treated like Gods since they turned 10 years old. Do you think Marion is the Rock of Gibralter? Bosh has lost it on occassion and probably wants out. We need talent and a culture that teaches and develops it. But we need talent and the kid has some tools.
by EaseMyPain on Apr 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I'm probably the only person in Canada with a K-State Beasley jersey but I'm not jumping up and down to see that Miami idea go down. First of all, considering how much Colangelo keeps talking about how "close this team is," the last thing I expect him to do is move Bosh for youngsters like Beasley who are years away from reaching potential. That's 3 steps back, not one forward. Second, I just can't see BC going back to the well and making another deal with Miami.
I'm on base with all of my colleague's predictions except one - I actually think Bosh will make it through the summer and into training camp as a Raptor. Whether this is a good idea is another matter all together but unlike Howland, I got the feeling from all of BC's post-season chats that he intends to retool and give Bosh a reason to stick around.
Again, I don't think this is the right way to go (it's definitely the riskiest) but time will tell.
Only about 3 weeks until the lottery and that's when things will really get rolling.
by Franchise on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I'm intrigued most by how the assistant coaches are going to be replaced in the next year. I'm taking a guess here, but I think Ivaroni gave Colangelo some advice on how to integrate and use Marion in the lineup, since Triano was having a tough go of it for the first little while. I think that we'll see a style closer to the end of last year than to the beginning of the year. First, because of the personal, and second, because it suits Triano's style to coach in that way. So I'll assume that we'll probably get at least two more assistants (including Ivaroni) and ones that have a little experience on their resume.
That being said, I'm really interested to see how Colangelo approaches the draft... Does he acquire a cheap low first round/high second round pick and take a flier out on someone, or does he try and move up the draft? He's talked about attaining another pick, but it will be interesting to see how he approaches everything. I think the money he got from the O'Neal deal should go into a stronger draft year.
by Vicious D on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I agree with all your points except on Bosh. I don't believe he is going anywhere. Unless Colangelo falls flat on his face (again) this summer in terms of improving the team.
On the draft, how many of you have had this thought - we could have had Igoudala instead of Hoffa; we could have had Granger instead of Graham; and we could have had Roy instead of Bargnani; and we could have two additional first rounders and three second rounders if we hadn't traded them away!
by Ian Johnson on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
It's pretty sad when the discussion around the team right now involves their former second round pick Printezis (sp). Star this morning was talking about him being an option and a more motivated Joey Graham. I'm not sure if that's a complement to Printezis or a diss on Graham though.
Anyways, I think CB4 is no more by August so BC and crew have a chance to fully integrate the new pieces before training camp.
by lurker on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Ian Johnson, I think we’ve all had those thoughts about how we messed up on some draft picks but hindsight really is 20/20 and to be honest it only makes sense to look forward and not back.
I agree with Franchise that Bosh may make it through training camp because it makes total sense for BC to work throughout the summer to try to improve the team around Bosh, and if by November the team still isn’t better start thinking trade, and by mid January we’re for sure not good enough, then he’ll make a move.
My preference though is for him, if he has decided to trade Bosh, to do it before training camp so the new players can have the benefit of a full camp together. Mid season trades involving multiple players often throws the dynamic of the team off balance and it takes a few L before everyone understands each other again. If there is going to be major change, I’d like to see it this summer and not mid season.
As for draft picks, it sure is a crappy year to be going after more picks but we do need some young talent that will appreciate over the next few years. Hopefully we can find a Gem in the late first round, early 2nd.
by Member29 on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I'm a little tired of hearing the classic "Raptor's Draft Lament" (aka. "Why couldn't we have drafted Iguodala and Granger, instead of Graham and that other guy... oh yeah, Hoffa?")
The thing is, lots of other teams could have picked those guys, and most chose worse players instead. Both went quite high in the first round, so I wouldn't call them "gems" but still!
Chosen in front of Granger were: Raymond Felton, Martell Webster, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, Andrew Bynum, Fran Vázquez, Yaroslav Korolev, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Antoine Wright, and our very own Joey Graham. I’m not even sure who Rashad McCants or Fran Vazquez are! And Yaroslav Korolev plays in the NHL, right?
True, with Hoffa, you’d rather take pretty much everyone in front of him. How could Babcock draft such crap with such a high pick!? Yet, chosen right behind Hoffa? No one less than the great Luke Jackson!
There certainly are teams (Detroit Redwings) that are adept at finding draft gems, and the Raptors are not one of them (I mean, is George Printezis even a real person? I thought he was the dude who started World War I). But we can’t blame our current woes on the draft, anymore than about 25 other teams who also missed a "diamond in the rough" at some point.
by Observer on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Well stated Observer. Those are very keen (wait for it) observations. Come on people, that's funny in a CBC Radio afternoon show kind of way.
Enough hilarity. Raptors comment. I was in Facebook today and a pop up ad for Raptors season tickets came up with a large picture of Andrea Bargnani with Don Johnson stubble wearing the road black jersey.
Does this mean that the marketing folks went to BC to chat about who they should be pimping for next season and BC told them to hold off on the 40 foot CB4 banner unless it's in a Miami uniform? Is trading CB4 a done deal? Sure looks like it.
Thoughts?
by Silverback on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
For those of you who are curious about Giorgos Printezis this was pulled off of nbadraft.net
Aran Smith - 6/16/2007
Strengths: Small forward who plays with great energy and hustle ... Really has a great attitude and knows no other way than giving full effort ... Solid athlete, with good size to play the 3 ... Very strong one on one player considering he's European ... Has solid aggressiveness, attacking the basket ... A great kid who competes hard who has a chance to develop into an NBA player in a few seasons ... His ball handling is good for a 3 but can imporve ... His style of play is somewhat like Antawn Jamison, as he scores alot around the basket ... Willing to do the dirty work, crashes the boards hard ... Will get on the floor for loose balls and take charges ...
Weaknesses: He is a solid athlete with a nice array of skills but doesn't stand out in any one area, besides his hustle ... Needs to become more polished offensively ... Not a great passer, but shows a willingness to look for the open teammate ... Lacks great foot speed laterally, but not terrible ... Can improve upon his range, shot off the dribble ...
Notes: Emerged as one of the top 1985 born International prospects at the 2007 RBK Eurocamp.
There is also an article written about him and BC's interest in him on the Toronto Star website.
by Posterized on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I think we should trade Bosh for Eric and Aaron Williams.
(Please don't try to defend the Hoffa pick while I'm still breathing).
by DayOner on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I actually liked the Hoffa Pick. Of course I have brain damage. In all seriousnous I think the brazilian bust pick highlights one of the greatest mistakes teams can make in a draft, that being, drafting for position over drafting the best player available. At the time the Raptors felt they were set at the swing postion (Carter and Rose if I recall correctly, plus Mo Pete) so Iguodala was considered redundant but they must of felt that the team needed a centre and Hoffa was sold to Babcock as the solution. If he had simply drafted the best player left on the board (Iguodala or whomever they had) instead of reaching, things would have turned out differently. How often have we seen teams pass by solid players because they decided someone else had more upside (bargnani was a prime example of this, as he was considered to have more upside then Morrison, Roy et al) or position (I think this is why Portland ultimately decided on Oden even though most people felt that Durrant would have a bigger overall impact, plus Centres with Oden's skill set are much harder to come by in the draft then players in Durrants style). I think teams make too much of a players height (Ben Gordan and others usually end up drafted much later than they should be because of their height) and not enough on what they will actually produce on the court. I think that is why so many players who are 7 feet or taller get drafted so early even if there are players who can have a much bigger impact immediately, still available. As the old adage says, you can't teach size.
If the raptors make that deal to Miami then BC is an idiot. Even if Beasley ends up being good, taking on another bad contract in Blount and shipping them another 1st round pick with Bosh and hump with only haslem coming back would make the Carter trade seem smart in comparison. Talk about getting the shaft as not only do we bail them out on Beasley and take Blount off their hands but shipping another 1st round pick to them just doesn't make sense. Talk about 30 cents on the dollar maybe BC can shine Rileys shoes for him or polish his knob too?
by McGateway on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
One more point on the Delfino/Parker issue. Most people know that my feelings about this prospect are at best cold so I won't go over it much other than to say that I hope this doesn't happen. I would rather the Raptors took a flyer on half a dozen other FA's out there than go back over that broken record. Having both of them out on the floor at the same time will probably crush what little will to live (basketball wise I mean) I have left. I can see it now,
Play by play
Delfino has the ball, passes to Parker, who jacks up a shot and misses. Rebound to Bargnani, who kicks it back out to Parker. Parker dribbles for a minute then sees delfino sneak out to the 3 point line, kicks the ball out to him and he jacks up the shot which fly's into the upper balcony.
Ok I am exagerating but considering they are both capable of scoring 20 and both capable of scoring 0, I think I would rather they brought Hoffa back.
by McGateway on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Parker? He will find a better fit elsewhere but they all say the right things. Parker has had a late career so his window for cash is closing fast. I also think Delfino will prove too rich for the Raptors blood once negotiations get going. If all this movement does occur as suggested I think Bargnani will without a doubt move to Power Forward and they will be looking for a legit 5. I also see Marion to the Knicks for something like Q-rich, Duhon and their first round pick. Bosh will go west to probably OKC with Green/pick the prizes there.
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by Ahava on Sep 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

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