3 In the Key – Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. Orlando
Money.
It's a drag.
At least that's what Pink Floyd taught me in my youth. But over the course of the next two months, Raptors fans are probably going to hear more about the salary cap and finances than they'd care to. In uncertain times when both cap and tax levels are predicted to go down, the league will soon be shifting in its approach to the excessive salaries being handed out to marginal players. And while we at the HQ have been discussing this issue for months, we're only starting to see the effects of some of the dead weight on the Raptors' roster.
After all, having $10 million tied into Jason Kapono and Marcus Banks makes it that much more difficult to give Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani proper salaries in the next few years.
It's why we're starting to have serious discussions about the financial viability of the Raptors for the foreseeable future.
Sorta feels like 2003-2006 all over again.
The amazing thing for me has been the reaction of the players. In yesterday's From Deep, the Globe and Mail's Michael Grange talked about discussing the salary cap situation with Shawn Marion. Perhaps offending Marion a little, Grange suggested that Marion may have to settle for a mere mid-level exception in his next negotiation - well under his current $17 million.
I'd be shocked too if someone suddenly suggested that I take a pay cut of about 65%.
But that's the harsh reality facing the NBA players in this upcoming summer.
It's why it's doubly important that Bryan Colangelo be aggressive yet fiscally responsible. I'm sure he'll be able to find a few bargains this summer such as Marion, but it's also important not to overpay guys like Pops Mensah-Bonsu or Anthony Parker, should we re-sign them. Don't worry, we'll be tossing our own two cents as the season comes to a conclusion. For now though, let's put all that aside and take a look at tonight's match up against the Orlando Magic.
Toronto is riding a fairly useless four-game winning streak, but thanks to the incompetence of the clubs in front of them, actually GAINED ground in their mythical playoff race last night!
Hands up to all who can't wait to see Toronto finish a game or two out when all is said and done??!
On to the keys...
1) Bargnani vs Howard -
By now, we've seen Bargnani mature before our eyes into a fairly decent defender. In the post, he's able to cut off drives to the basket and make life difficult for the opposing guards. Tonight, he'll have little time for that, as he'll be consuming all his fouls and energy towards slowing down the runner-up in this year's slam dunk contest. Dwight Howard almost hit another 20-20 Monday night against the Heat and with only one day's rest, the Raptors need to throw everything and the kitchen sink against Howard. For Bargnani, it's yet another look at how our starting center is learning the most difficult part of his game; quickness with his legs to cut off opponents and power to push out brick-houses like Howard. If Bargnani is able to draw a few fouls on Howard, it should make life much easier for the Raptors.
2) Perimeter D -
Orlando has the 4th highest shooting percentage from beyond the arc. I've harped about it in previous previews against the Magic, but the Raptors simply cannot allow the Magic to sit on the perimeter and bomb. With lengthier players like Marion and Mensah-Bonsu now in tow, it should be easier for the Raptors to close out on the perimeter as long as they don't need to help out too much in the paint. Therefore, the Raptors have to protect the paint in order to continue to play effective perimeter D.
Except for maybe Rafer Alston. I just might want the Raptors to leave him open and let him toss them up.
3) Score -
Let's face it. This year, the Raptors have needed to score and score a lot because their defense has been shoddy at best. We'll delve into just why the Raptors' defense is so atrocious after the end of the season, but for now, the Raptors have to keep on scoring. 100 points has to be the mandate for this team because it means that they're moving the ball and getting into a flow. I'd also like to say that this might be doubly hard against the Magic because we shouldn't expect the Raptors to jump out to any kind of sizable lead unlike their previous four wins. The Raptors will need to score with the added pressure of playing a team that can make it close at any moment and for me, it's an important step in continuing to evaluate this club.
It's a bit ironic that we're seeing the Orlando Magic at this point in time. A few years ago, we used to talk about how Dwight Howard was still too raw to carry a team and that the Magic were far from being an elite team in the NBA. A new coach with a philosophy, some deft moves, and the maturation of a dominant player and the Magic are now amongst the elite in the East year after year. As a Raptor fan, I can't help but think about some of the bad breaks in the past couple of years that have seen our franchise fall to the bottom of the pile.
One wonders how long the road will be back to the top?
Vicious D
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I always seem to be 2 days late to the table when posters are making arguments about this or that.
1. Bosh is a better defender than some people give him credit for. His defense on Gordon and Rose (I only saw like the last few minutes of overtime mind you) was nothing short of excellent. When he wants to defend, he can.
2. I don't like having Banks and Kapono on our team either but Banks was worth it because it freed up 17 million dollars instead of being tied into the 21 Million. If we have to eat a contract for a few years, I prefer his over Kapono's. I still think no matter what spot we get in the draft, we should be tying that pick to one of them and shipping them out.
3. I still do not understand the "Bosh is not a maxplayer/franchise player" argument. But I think I have beaten this horse to death. I just someone would explain their position better other than saying that only 3 current players in the NBA deserve max contracts (Kobe/Lebron/Wade and maybe Paul).
4. If this team does trade Bosh (and I am not advocating that they should), they need to be very careful in what they get back. I do not think anyone wants to see a situation where the SportsGuy is refering to a player we acquired in a deal for Bosh as "Toronto's player x expiring contract" in his trade columns.
by McGateway on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
MrG - I'll address things from my perspective
1) For most of the game, Gordon and Rose simply destroyed Bosh in regulation. Bosh's defense on cutting off lanes in regulation was pretty bad. I can't remember much about his D in overtime though, so I'll have to take your word for it. I just don't see it consistently enough. I didn't even see it all that much during his hot streak at the beginning of the year, which makes it... Well, just one point of contention for me.
2) I'd rather have Kapono because he actually contributes sometimes. On a team supposedly going more athletic next year, I think still having a sharp shooter will be that much more important; more so than in the past couple years when the Raptors have suggested that having a bunch of shooters to compliment bigs would be an ideal. I look back at the VC years with Dell Curry, and even just a couple years ago, you need to be able to draw and kick.
3) I think most of us believe he's a franchise player. Is he a max player? Well, I think he at least deserves around the max. But our question centers more around whether the Raptors can afford him at the max, not so much about whether he is deserving. I've argued before that max doesn't mean best in the league, but rather best on your team, and I still think that a lot of people get hung up on that point.
4) My real problem is determining what we want back. Do we want 2 players that can contribute now? Do we want draft picks that can be used in the next couple of years? All of that has to go towards shaping our club's goals for the next season or so. Right now, I'm loathe to guess where Bosh will end up, but I think if we see him traded, what we get back will be a strong indication of where this team is heading in the next season.
by Vicious D on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Doug Smith reporting the following:
Speaking of the summer, which can’t come soon enough, Andrea Bargnani told me yesterday he’s definitely going to play for Italy.
And it could be busy.
The Italians have to play in an additional qualification round this summer – against the likes of France and Israel – just to make it to Eurobasket 2009 in September so there’s a chance the majority of Bargnani’s off-season will be taken up with national team obligations.
You all right with that?
Of course, Italy could bow out in the first qualifier and he’d have all of September off but that might not be the case.
My thoughts on this are below as I posted at his site, and for which I am also curious what Raptors HQ posters feel about this development.
I am O.K. with Bargs playing for Italy, given his age, and we would expect a Canadian entering their prime and the #1 pick in the draft to play for us.
This year's off-season, unlike last year, will not have Andrea needing surgery plus working on his stamina/strength. However, Andrea certainly could benefit by some additional one on one Raptors dictated training with a coach supplied, be it post up situations, or wherever else the Raptors feel it is needed. Hopefully, he will get some of this while playing for Italy, and most importantly, not get injured, like Jose, that basically cost us the season, as it was a season long lingering hamstring injury.
Andrea has certainly bounced back from last year, and he deserves the chance to play for his country. Unfortunately, Italy is not exactly a powerhouse, so will it make him a better player given his teamates plus the competition he will face? Doubtful, but I completely understand why he wants to play.
The Raptors really have no choice here anyways. If they ask Andrea to consider not playing he will be resentful, and will possibly use it as a means to not reup with us, so just let him play, but at the same time, impose strict guidelines so he gets in his Raptors work as well.
by Brian Gerstein on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Andrea will kill it this summer..
by freeform brainstormer on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Nice write up, I always look forward to the front court match ups vs Orl. Hopefully we can be aggressive against Dwight, because we have no legit answer for him on the other end - just like the rest of the league basically.
I feel Bosh is easily guarded by Lewis and Hedo. Where as they present difficulties for him on defence with their quickness.
The abilities of marion, jg and perhaps even pops to gaurd 4/3 hybrids should come in handy.
With regards to Kapono and Banks, I do not feel they increase the difficulty of affording Bosh and Bargs - we can keep it together - but they will be prohibitive when it comes to the supproting cast. So while things may be tight for a season and a bit, they turn into a solid 10 million dollar etch-a-sketch after the 2010 contracts are locked in. Hopefully we can be competative enough over this period, even if we fall shy of being true contenders.
Bc is called the lego master, but he can also be called the the rubix cube master - sequences of moves must be considered, and many moves may seem like lateral moves at best towards the intended final product. - obviously this is less catchy.
With regards to Andrea, it really depends on the nature of his experience. It may be an opprotunity for him to be relied on by his peers on a stage where he is capable of dominating. Or he could be misused, and encounter primarily frusteration and alienation. - I'm sure BC will have discussions with the team over there about how AB will be used, as well as having people over there to moniter the situation.
Whether the italian program listens is a different story. - though if the coach is reasonable he may end up coaching for the raps some day! (Think BC, Triano and Nash - just a facetious comment, I do not mean that seriously.)
by TJ Caino on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Vicious D - I think we have all seen Bosh play D when he wants to and that was my point. If he wants to. The problem, and I agree with you to some extent, is that too often he doesn't seem to want to.
2. I would agree with keeping Kapono if it weren't for the fact that he has been horribly inconsitent with his contributions. I would rather have a player who you know cannot contribute (and therefore do not waste time giving him rotation minutes that could go to someone else) then have someone who you just never know what you are going to get (see Good Joey/Bad Joey). Ultimately, if Banks could do something defensively or Kapono could contribute offensively more consistently, I would go with that one. All things being equal, I would rather have the additional 2 mil in cap space.
I can see the point about the close to max but I still cannot help but think who would you rather have at the PF spot for the next 10 years? I mean there are some good PFs in the league and some you could even get for a lot less money but there are so many variables that you have to consider (personality, their current situations etc). Example 1 - David West - Is West as good as Bosh (currently or in the future)? It is hard to say because Bosh doesn't play with the best PG in the game and how good would West be if he had to carry a team, the way Bosh is forced to, for a whole season?
Example 2 - Carlos Boozer - Does anyone think that Boozer would be happy playing here? Is Boozer as good as Bosh? Again his circumstances are completely different (Jerry Sloan is his coach, he has DWilliams as his PG and you cannot argue that he isn't a better PG than Calderon at this stage).
The list goes on and on. In almost all instances, other PF/C who you can say are equal to or better than Bosh are also in better situations then he is team wise. Think about it. If he played with Wade or Lebron would his numbers go up or down? I am not sure but my suspicion is his overall numbers would get a boost as teams couldn't double team him.
To me at least, I cannot think of a better PF in the game then Bosh (based on his age, temperment etc). I can pick individuals who are probably better (Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett obviously but they are getting up there in age) but again they almost all have much better teams playing around them then Bosh has ever had so I really think it is unfair to say he isn't worth Max money, even on the Raptors.
The question of whether the Raptors should refocus their eneregies in another direction by trading him just seems like the Vince Carter situation all over again. Teams will want to dump long term contracts on us or expiring deals and crap players and those are the best case scenarios. I still think that unless BC can make a steal of a deal, it will be worse to make those deals then just letting him walk at the end of next year and taking the 15 mil in cap space.
by McGateway on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Correct me if I am wrong...
But in regards to this ridiculous playoff run lol... in order for the Raps to make it... we need to win all of the remaining games in the season and either Detroit or Chicago can only win one more game. (Or obviously we lose one of the remaining and chicago or Detroit have to lose the rest)
by Blanco on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
OH... and this is assuming no other teams make a push and stay behind...
lol impossible but ya..
by Blanco on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Blanco - think you're about right. The whole thing is so ridiculous considering that a team like the Bulls could clinch with a measley 38 wins! That really puts things into perspective in terms of how terrible Toronto was at times this year. The losses to Oklahoma and the like would probably give the team at least another five wins right there. In that sense, fans should be incredulous.
On another note, does everyone realize that this might be the last time we get to see Bosh vs. Howard in their current uniforms? An interesting sub-plot, along with this game being a true litmus test for this suddenly "hot team."
I hope Orlando wins by 20 tonight so that Colangelo doesn't get any grand ideas about keeping this roster status quo...
by Franchise on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
On Bosh's defensive play, and basically everyone else's defensive play for that matter: It requires energy and the best defenders know how to conserve energy on the offensive end. The exceptions are those whose energy levels are simply better than their counterparts (think KG or Kobe or even LeBron of late). Notice with Bosh that so much energy is exerted to get his scores that by the time he has to defend his man he can't offer much resistance. When he was coming off the Bench for the US team not only were his minutes reduced, he was not the offensive focus and could thus apply the extra energy to defending unlike we've ever seen him defend before. I've brought this up before but what needs to happen for this team to operate optimally with Bosh is that they have to lessen his offensive burden. With Andrea's continued emergence this might just take care of itself going into next year. Bosh's stamina has been an issue since forever but when slagging a guy for poor defense consider how hard it would be to hold up physically and mentally considering how hard he has to work just to put up the numbers on one end.
by Interloper on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
To me Bargnani is intriguing, because his contribution hasn't stabilized, and I don't get the feeling he's peaked, even in terms of his raw numbers.
by observer on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
It will be interesting to see if BC and Triano change their focus once the Raps are officially eliminated from the "playoff race". We have so many players playing for contracts or trying to salvage their status as elite players, a coach looking to prove himself worthy and a GM trying to mask a failed recipe that I'm doubtful they will.
I can already see the crowd booing as we take a late game lead, cheering when they get their pizza and booing again as we pull out a hard fought victory. What a season.
by Raptoronto on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Franchise - I'm not as worried about the team not having many drastic moves. Next years team will be significantly different than the one which began the season.
Coaching
Marion
Bargs' emergence
Delfino comming back
MLE
A draft pick or two
I think that is pretty significant. The only thing that might change that is Bosh wanting out, and perhaps Marion not returning (though this likley yeild replacement assests via a SnT).
On a related note, is anyone comfortable with Roko as our back up PG next year?
Not ideal, but with his improvements, banks, delfino returning, and AP demonstrating himself compotent, that may be what we are dealing with next year.
Raptoronto - I agree it will be interesting when we are eliminated. While I'm not sure we'll see a proper tank, as BC/MLSE I'm sure would prefer more revenue as opposed to less over that period.
by TJ Caino on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Jay Triano is coming back! I just heard Bryan Colangelo on the Fan590 with Bob McCowan, and he pretty much let the cat out of the bag that he is extremely happy with the way that Jay has interacted with the players as well as their respect for him. He also said that Jay will NOT be judged by the wins and losses, so it is a no brainer as the only thing left is for Colangelo to make his recommendation to the board.
To me it is very simple why this decision has been made:
1. He is under contract, comes cheap, and they are still paying for Smitch.
2. Being Canadian, he has pretty much been made of teflon this year, as the vast majority of fans, excluding the hard core posters, are behind him 100% given his National Team coaching and his long tenure with the Raptors.
This in reality was an easy decision for the Raptors to make. I still have my doubts that he can truly get the respect and work ethic that a name coach can garner, but since the MLSE is not prepared to cut another large cheque, we will have to live with it.
by Brian Gerstein on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Mr G - I agree with you on just about everything. I'm just not sure what his worth to the Raptors is, and how they will make it work.
Brian - Good. Now I think we can focus on the real need for the Raptors, which is a restructuring of their assistant coaches.
by Vicious D on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
In addition to Brian's points, the team is in a transition phase where the key is building up assets. As long as Triano did an okay job, the job was his. Once we're a consistent playoff team, that's when I forsee the real test for Triano will come. Cause its then that BC will be comfortable putting down the heavy duty tools, and seek input on fine-tuning.
When looking at the Raptors standing among the other lowest tier teams in the East, I think of a 400m race. Due to our hard early schedule, we got one of the inside lanes and were behind the pack for most of the season. But we've going into the last turn, and the Knicks, Nets, etc are feeling the effects of the stagger.
Ustation posted about how teams ahead of us were limiting the minutes of their starters. I think they have the depth to tank with more...grace. They also have enough young players that they can sell it to fans as "getting a head start on next season". Given the absence of both on the Raptors, I can see why finishing the season with lots of feel good, mean nothing Marion and Bonsu dunks could look tempting. All I ask is that once we're eliminated from the playoffs, they have Calderon and Ukic split time 50/50 till the season ends.
by yardly on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I've posted a lot in favour of exploring the option of trading Bosh and a lot of it has to do with, what I perceive to be a lack of chemistry between Bargnani. Guess I should add I think Bargnani will be outplaying them both soon. Actually, last half of the season, he has. Of the two(or 3 with Boozer), Bargnani's the one I would choose to keep.
Unfortunately, we find ourselves in a rebuilding situation. The way this team is setup, we are seriously behind our competition. Bosh will want serious cash, and I do not think it would be our best move to give it to him. 12-15 million, to me, is fair and if we can sign him for that, I say go for it. But if thats what we offer, we are sure to be outbid.
If we could get top 3 in the draft with two other good youngish players, with our pick somewhere from 10-12 all of a sudden our team has a different look. Packaged with Bosh, we could probably dump Banks or Kapono's contract.
Hmm- listening to the game on the FAN(and I get TSN2) and find myself really enjoying it. Raps up by 7 -end of 3rd. Just heard Swirsky doing a commercial for an accounting firm. Unmistakable voice. I miss Chuck.
by Tinman on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I don't care what anyone says. As a fan I'm happy that they are still trying to win. I fell like I am finally getting the fix that i have been Jonesing for all year.
by Nigel N on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Trying to write the recap here and having a tough time...just another great effort, one that's hard to discount.
I heard Swirsky too...however I don't miss his schtick at all...
by Franchise on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
here's to a clutch win against a good team ... and not missing chuck whatsoever...
man, I still wish the schedule had been a little easier earlier on, but the changes made, whether it's marion or someone similar next year have been the right change...
I still wouldn't keep triano, but not down on him either... the team's identity is coming together and that's coaching as much as anything I think...
the time of this run sure is pissing me off though
by axl on Apr 1, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Bosh was talking about their chances of making the playoffs post-game. This team can't even tank right. How can no one in Raps mgmt not be forcing Triano to play the scrubs at this point? If Bargs got as many minutes as he did under Smitch, despite his clear opposition to it, Triano must be even more under the gun if BC wants to go with a given approach (i.e. play the dynasty: Jawai, O'Bryant, Voshkul, Banks and Douby). I think the writing is on the wall with the starters coninuing to get heavy minutes. BC is actually delusional enough to believe he has a competitor running with roughly this bunch. God, Buddha, Allah or whom ever else, help us.
by Branden on Apr 2, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

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