RaptorsHQ Stock Watch for March 31, 2009

I was watching part of the Nets capitulation last night when the irony of it all hit me. We are still being outcoached by Lawrence Frank even when we don’t play against the Nets.

I flashed back to the 2005 – 2006 season when, down the stretch, Memphis and the Clippers where fighting for playoff positioning. They were neck and neck when they met each other in the second last game of the season. There was a clear advantage to losing this game as the winner would play the 4th seed Dallas (NBA finalists that year) in Dallas and the loser would have home court advantage against the 3rd seeded Nuggets. Elton Brand only played 22 minutes on route to a loss and a 6th seed. The Clippers ended up beating the Nuggets 4-1 while the Grizzlies lost to the Mavs 4-0.

What’s the point? The point is that you have to be mature enough to see the forest for the trees. It’s not about not giving your all, it’s about not playing Bosh (an average of 38 minutes in the last four games), Calderon and Bargnani (each at 32) as much as we have been. Carter and Harris both had 26 minutes last night. Nate Robinson who has been averaging 30+ minutes this season was at 16 last night.

To say that watching the Raptors this season has been frustrating is an understatement, but what’s happening now in the way these last few games are being played out is outright infuriating. To win some pointless games to help mend someone’s pride at the expense of a promising pick and development/evaluation of new blood shows a lack of vision and understanding of the business of basketball.

What is Jay suppose to do in this situation. He's also fighting for a job, and wins, might and I add might give him the opportunity for his first big time gig. Personally I don't think he has earned that right. Yes people have grown under his tutelage, but over all the team has been, well to be frank, horrible. I don't think it's all his fault as this team is so over rated, BC needs to look at the whole structure. Most of the time you have 2 players on the floor that can't defend their positions, (bargs, JC and JK) and at the end of games that is what you require, STOPS. Also, I'll rank coach's on their time outs, and Jay hasn't shown me a thing in this regard. When he first got the job he let CB be the man and since he can't dribble he twice lost the ball on the attempt to penetrate. Even against Chicago at the end of the game I wouldn't call that a highly effective play. As a Canadian I would have loved for Jay to get the opportunity, but, well, I don't think he showed he has earned that with his performance this year. Just one mans opinion.

After watching Blake Griffin in the NCAA's, as dominant as he looked, I still find myself wondering about his pro potential. I never saw him take an outside shot. No short turn around jumpers, no foul line gimmees and his defense was neglible since he couldn't be aggressive to stay out of foul trouble. He showed great patience and I don't think I've ever seen anyone tougher on the basketball court. I just wonder that at his height, he can't really be a center and if he can't go out and defend on the perimeter, maybe he won't be the superstar everybody is thinking he'll be. Of course, I probably have my head firmly up my kazoo and with all the body contact allowed in the NBA, he could become the greatest rebounder since Wilt. I hope so, he's grit personified. I also liked what I saw of Sam Young, I think he's a better version of Mo Pete and would be a great fit with the Raptors and Stanley Robinson seems out of this world. Give me Mr. Robinson and Mrs. Robinson can stay home.

glad to see you haven't swayed away from my man T-Will. definitely has some holes in his offensive game but when have we ever drafted a defensive stud. we're so incredibly desperate for one and i think he has the personality to thrive here.

i've blown mega cold on blake. i hate players that refuse to play defence. especially on the biggest stage on their careers. he played only for himself vs UNC and it was sickening. let someone else try to develop & knock some sense into him. maybe some Smitch would do him good.

Melon, I couldn't agree more regarding Griffin; he looked really really good in the tourney. His rebounding and scoring numbers are off the charts, and he's being double teamed the whole time. I don't think he's being drafted by any team to be a center, rather a PF. He's not 6-10, but he's not shorter than 6-8; that makes him a bit undersized at that position, but he has great instincts around the hoop that I think will make up for that. Moreover, I think his rebounding will translate well in the NBA. I think his worst case scenario is not that bad; he's athletic, can rebound, knows how to score and has a well developed post game.

The crazy thing is that, even with his shortcomings, he would fit in perfectly on this Raptors sqaud (if he were to replace Bosh at PF). He would complement AB well because he is a strict low post scorer and will give this team the rebounding it needs. I suppose it just depends on which team gets the first pick and whether there is a deal to be made for Bosh with that team.

I personally think that from both a basketball and financial standpoint replacing Bosh with Griffin makes a whole lot of sense; he would be on a rookie scale contract paying him about $5 mil per year. If you re-dign Bargs for under 10 mil then you can go out and get yourself that impact swingman + bench depth and then you have yourself a team, and are probably further under the luxury tax than you are right now.

Rob

Franchise,

We've heard a lot about Golden State and Chicago being the teams that willmost likely pursue Bosh. However, do you think the best trade partner would be from a Raptors standpoint?

Maybe an article on deals/players BC should target if Bosh is going to be traded.

My personal favorite is the Jazz because they can offer Millsap + young players + a pick, they seem to hae a legitimate need since Boozer is constantly hurt and wavering in his commitment, and most importantly would be an attractive team for Bosh since he would be paired up with Olympic teammate D.Will.

Rob

A few points from this:

1) If Bosh goes, finding a rebounding 4 to pair with Bargs is essential, be it a pick like Griffin or youngster like Millsap. While Bargs is still improving in that capacity, having someone who can haul in 10-12 a night would be a huge boost and allow him to be more efficient offensively I think.
2) As for best trade partner, I think Chicago, Golden State and Utah all make sense from a Raptors’ perspective however of the 3, I think Chicago is most likely based on Bosh’s willingness to re-sign in such a market.
3) Some interesting takes on Griffin. I agree, defensively he’s got a lot of work to do, but I think that will come with time, much like his foul shooting (abysmal) and long-range game. Right now though, I like that fact that he just wants to dunk on everyone and punish people on the blocks, something very few "4’s" do anymore. He’s a bit undersized, but his athleticism makes up for a lot of this, and with the NBA now, undersized isn’t as big of an issue. More than anything, I think the fact that there are obvious gaps in his game again speaks volumes about this draft. Had he come out last year, he still probably would have been a top 5 pick, but wouldn’t have gone first overall. I think though he’s got a ways to go and if you recall, his limitations right now are quite similar to those of Karl Malone out of college; both athletic bruisers with limited face-up games…although Malone was a much better defender.
4) Finally, Zona, interesting point about Frank. When I was updating the Atlantic Division standings this morning I noticed both the Knicks and Nets losing again, putting Toronto in the precarious position of leaping both clubs with another win or two. As twisted as this sounds, I really believe Colangelo and co. think this team can still make the playoffs! That either tells you how terrible the bottom of the East is, or tells you how soon we need to call the men in white coats for BC.

Zona - BC is still evaluating the starters. Given than he is considering what to do about Marion and Bosh (one looking to sign for about 24 million, and the other around 150 million), I'm cool with him giving them an extended look.

Well giving POB some burn is less of a priority in my opinion.

Evaluate the medium aged blood that is worth tonnes, as opposed to the young blood that might get to that level.

Though apart from Roko, we don't really have many young guys that are that beneficial to develop.

On a related note, interesting thought, Franchise, about potentially letting JG walk.

I had always had him penciled in as staying: but given that the raps figure to be against the cap, that rosters spots will be limited, that some picks are likely to be floating around for the taking, and that JG doesn't perfectly fit in the afforementioned category of young blood with a high ceiling - he may get the squeeze.

Caino - It's funny, like Bosh, I was completely against moving or letting Graham go originally. However after watching so much college ball of late, I had to start asking myself, is Joey REALLY that much of an upgrade over guys like Young, Williams and Tyler Smith? As fans, we're comparing Graham to his past few years so yes, big improvements in many ways. But compared to many first round picks, I'm not sure you can say he's got that much more upside or talent. Therefore I'm starting to think that grabbing a cheap late first-rounder or early second and using Graham's money to really upgrade the 2-3 spots might be best.

Franchise, totally agree that Blake on top is symbolic of how weak the draft is.

Re: his defence. Maybe some blame lies with the coach and/or the supporting cast but he is not putting any effort to improve his abysmal defence. I watched him multiple times during the season & the tournament thinking he could be the right guy to put beside Bargs. But he never defended the pn'r, rarely makes rotations and is very spotty as a shotblocker. The only glimmer of hope is with his rebounding.
Contrast that with a young Bargs who was very active on both ends, helping and blocking. He wasn't great but he seemed to be always trying in those long youtube clips.

Maybe by some miracle Blake lands in the right situation for him and the lightbulb kicks on but I tend to agree with Thad Matta:

"The same flaws he's going to have in college he's going to have in the NBA. And some teams just draft on, 'We think maybe this could be a really good player someday.' But I think flaws are flaws - just because you're in the NBA doesn't mean they're going to go away. The great ones that do go to school for one year, they get the job done while they're there."

Dilroscoe,

I read that article as well. I interpreted that quote as a more pointed shot at players that lack fundamental things such as a work ethic and maturity. His comments against regarding Mullens leaving seem much stronger then the usual, "return to play a larger role and develop your skills" type comments of most coaches.

I'll also agree that keeping JG isn't necessarily a lock:

1)If Bosh is traded this summer, we'll have multiple players coming our way. The chances of a SF or PF in the deal are a lock in my eyes.

2) At least one draft pick incoming this year. Unlike last year for example, there are lots of wings projected to enter in our draft range.

3) IF Delfino comes back, he takes minutes at the backup SG and SF in a small-ball lineup.

4) With Pops and a healthy Hump, time backing up PF will be scarce.

5) Bosh leaving could also affect how intent the team is on bringing back Marion. BC has stated he things there is "plenty of basketball left in Marion". GMs say alot of things, but he might keep Marion on to split minutes at SF and PF as a mismatch threat. Who knows if we'll able to snag an accomplished PF. We could end up with a PF by committee situation.

My bad for not framing the quote better everyone. Thad was talking about BJ but I found it more interesting applied in a universal context.

Because it's something you see so often with players. They develop their strengths and hope to mask their weaknesses.

With Blake, maybe because he has so many, he'll be forced to turn around his game. But right now he looks to me like one of those that will only get his stats not a lot of meaningful wins. He needs a strong cast of vets put around him early and we won't have that for awhile.

So, Franchise, if you're BC:

1) Who do you ask for off of Chicago's roster?

AND

2) Who do you think we end up with (realistically)?

Also, wouldn't it make more sense to try and involve a third team to try and extract more talent?

Rob

though not the perfect fit... I feel like Tyreke Evans is worth a look for this team... he has the size and handle we need from our SG... and if he can be taught the team game, could be really dangerous... but I think that's the big if with him.

Still... I think the Raps could do a lot worse in this draft than picking up a player like Evans because right now, there is no one on the roster with his skills. He fills a need... even with his flaws.

That is a great choice Less. I think Evans is the most talented players, along with Derozan and Jennings. This guy would be a huge steal if we can get him at 9-12 in the first round. He's the real deal, ever since grade 10, he's always been one of the best for his age group in North America.

Love Sam Young! Great athlete, tough rebounder, pretty good defender and a very efficient offensive player.

Ironically, Blair is the kind of player who would give the Raptors fits. I see him as a role player off the bench at the next level. He has great strength and a great nose for the ball, but I don't think he's as athletic as a Jason Maxiell and I'm not sure if he has any offensive game more than five feet away from the basket. He is intriguing, though.