Tip-In: Toronto Raptors Post-Game: Bulls and Bosh
The Raps are suddenly playing decent basketball and appear to be clicking on close to all cylinders. It's a sight for sore eyes, and after blowing out their most recent opponent on Friday, it was even more refreshing to see the Raps win a close game yesterday afternoon.
In a rare late matinée affair Raps fans who are still tuning into these late season games (and trust us, if you go to Stubhub you will see how little interest there is with great tickets going for as low as $25) were rewarded with a pretty solid tilt against a Chicago team trying to secure their place in the second season. Although the game never should have ended in overtime, the Raps actually managed to get a break or two in key moments of the game and played the role of spoiler with a 134-129 victory.
I won't belittle the win, because it was nice to see, but as Franchise and I were discussing post game, this match would have been a lot more fun to watch had it been say...40 games ago. Of course you could say that about this little winning streak as well. As discussed in the last post, winning games is a catch 22 at this point. What is most disappointing is that this team's season could have been much different had the schedule makers put this slate of games earlier in the year when the team desperately needed to gain momentum. Nevertheless, it's too late. No matter how many sub .500 teams they beat, the writing is on the wall.
There are definitely some positives to take from yesterday's game. First and foremost, the team looked like and played like "a team". Every player who Triano put on the floor did some positive things. The guys seem to be having fun out there for the first time in what seems like forever. Much of the boisterous laugher seen from the bench was due to the sick dunks and effort put forth by Pops Mensah-Bonsu. Extra credit however, goes to Jose Calderon who was terrific all afternoon, matching the franchise record for assists in a game with 19 and, of course, Bosh and Bargnani who were a force combining for 59 points and 21 rebounds.
For all the positives though, there were of course some negatives and some big one's at that. Negative No. 1? The fact that after leading almost wire to wire the Raps once again let their guard down and had to fight, claw, and rely on a brutal lay-up miss from ROY candidate Derrick Rose to help get to OT. How badly did the Raps let their guard down? The Bulls, or rather Rose and Ben Gordon scorched the Raps for 42 points in the fourth. FORTY-TWO POINTS?! That's a half-time score!!
The Raps' poor perimeter defense was once again exposed and the Bulls relied on their excellent wing play and lights out shooting to make a game of it. The Raps had absolutely no answer for Ben Gordon. Anthony Parker provided little resistance defensively and on the flip side, Gordon didn't have to exert much energy defensively either.
The wing position continues to be a problem for this team. That's not news to anyone that has watched more than a handful of games this season. What was "new" or "newsworthy" this game, was the great interview Elliot Friedman conducted with Bryan Colangelo.
Friedman, in just a short period of the time, put BC through the ringer on a variety of topics. Although my HD CBC broadcast was choppy at best, here's the brief run down (in order of importance):
1.Pops Mensah-Bonsu: Having signed him for the season he will be an restricted free agent and the Raps will be looking to match.
2.Jay Triano: In a position to remove the interim tag, definitely not out of the running.
3.Chris Bosh: No comments on whether he is a "max" player and things will come to a head this summer.
As important as the first two points are, it is the third, which really deserves the most attention as it will be the hot issue going forward. When asked at half whether he thought CB4 would be around next season Jack Armstrong answered, "50/50".
I think that's over estimating it.
The summer of 2010 has been discussed ad nauseam and the focus has primarily been on three players from the 2003 draft class: Lebron James, D. Wade and the Raptors own CB4, in that order. All three of them having signed shortened extensions after their rookie deals (as opposed to Carmelo Anthony) will be looking for the big pay day, and another maximum deal in 2010.
Based on discussions we've had with people associated with the organization, don't expect to see CB4 sign that deal in TO...or at least they are not denying the possibility when asked, and have mentioned that BC may just not be able to keep him around.
There are two reasons why this would be true.
1. He Just Wants Out
This summer will determine Bosh's future. What that future is lies in CB4's hands as much as it does in Colangelo's.
The blunt reality is if CB4 simply wants out, and if the old adage "Where there is smoke there's fire" is true, then little more needs to be said.
In the NBA world there are rumours everyday. This is why people read sites like RealGM and Hoopshype. People like myself love the ESPN Trade Machine and reading about possible deals. It was not that long ago that everyone's favorite reporter, Mr. Stephen A. Smith, came out and stated that CB4 had asked for a trade from the Raps.
The Raps denied.
Bosh denied.
SAS didn't back down.
Since the deadline has come and gone all things went relatively quiet, but now the grumblings are starting to surface again. As reported by Marc Stein, it looks like Golden State has started to inquire again about Bosh's possible availability this summer and,
"Chicago is another team considered a certain Bosh bidder should the Raps decide it's easier to start over, rather than try again to assemble a team successful enough next season to convince Bosh to stay in Canada as opposed to leaving as a free agent in the summer of 2010."
It could be the case that Bosh has already "checked-out".
2. He Wants the Max
As much as BC may want Bosh in a Raps uniform for the next 5-6 years it will only happen if the price is right. If Bosh wants maximum dollars, expect a trade. As much as the franchise was happy to give him one just a few years ago, they shouldn't be, and hopefully won't be, willing to do it again. On the flip side, if Bosh wants to win he won't ask for those dollars either.
The reality is Bosh isn't a max guy, statistically or otherwise. First let's look at the stats, in particular the statistics of those guys who undoubtedly will be getting the max next summer - Lebron James and D. Wade.
Lebron James:
05/06 31.4 ppg / 7 rpg /6.6 apg
06/07 27.3 ppg / 6.7 rpg / 6 apg
07/08 30 ppg / 7.9 rpg / 7.2 apg
08/09 28.4 ppg /7.7 rpg / 7.3 apg
Been to the Finals. Multiple playoff series wins.
D. Wade:
05/06 27.3 ppg / 5.7 rpg / 6.7 apg
06/07 27.4 ppg / 4.7 rpg / 7.5 apg
07/08 24.6 ppg / 4.2 rpg / 6.9 apg
09/09 29.8 ppg / 5.1 rpg / 7.5 apg
NBA Champion. Finals MVP.
Chris Bosh:
05/06 22.5 ppg / 9.2 rpg / 2.6 apg
06/07 22.6 ppg / 10.7 rpg / 2.5 apg
07/08 22.3 ppg / 8.7 rpg / 2.6 apg
08/09 22.6 ppg / 9.6 rpg / 2.5 apg
No playoff wins.
From a statistical standpoint there really is no comparison. Bosh is statistically the far weaker of the three. Of course, that does not mean that the market won't bear maximum. Bosh is consistently a 20 and (near) 10 player. Who else in the NBA does that and what are they being paid this season?
The list is an interesting one, and keep in mind there are no perfect comparisons:
Antwan Jamison – $9.9 million
Zack Randolph - $14.6 million
Amare Stoudamire - $15 million
David West - $9.8 million
Al Jefferson - $11.0 million
Some solid players, with a serious exception.
Based on those salaries, should Bosh sign for the max he would be the highest paid player on this list, and in some cases by a wide margin. Does that seem right to you? Keep in mind that this season there are six big men with more double-doubles than CB4, but on the flip side CB4 has the 10th highest PER in the league.
I look at it two ways.
The first is...would you rather have two David West's or one CB4? I for one would take the former.
The second is this – There is no way to validate paying him more.
Over the past four seasons Bosh's numbers have been steady, but have not risen. He is currently on a contract that pays him $14.4 million for this season. Given that he seems to have plateaued, what is the incentive to pay him more, in particular when the salary cap is going down?
To do so would go against all logic.
Why would you pay more, for the same thing, when you have less cash? The only exception would be Rogers cable bills during a recession.
The only time you would agree to pay more is if you were originally under paying for your return on investment (in this case wins).
This is where the argument gets a little subjective. Lebron and Wade on their own, are simply dominant. Bosh, on the other hand is "just" really good. Despite all his talents, Bosh needs help to win. This year is evidence of that. The Raptors success over past seasons have come when the team has had talent around Bosh. Like KG when he was with Minny, he can't do it alone, as opposed to the other two guys on that list. Wade and Lebron can carry a team, and the NBA currently is regulated so that wing players of their ilk have an advantage. They control the flow of the game and while not point guards, really are the the motors that drive their club. Bosh can't/doesn't do this and that's why you hear people talking about how Bosh would be the perfect second fiddle to Lebron or Wade.
With the economy the way it is, and a decreasing cap, teams will need to be a lot more conservative in how they distribute dollars and that includes top end guys. If Bosh wants those dollars it likely won't be in TO. The return on investment with Bosh, just isn't good enough to merit maximum dollars.
The other factor in all of this is Bargnani.
It's easy to forget that Bargs will be looking for serious dollars as well and given his play as of late, it will be hard for BC not to accommodate. He could be looking for anywhere from $10 million per season to what Lebron is currently making.
In many ways BC's cart is tied to Bargnani. For a man with as much pride as BC has, Il Mago's play as of late has to be a huge relief. Bargnani, believe it or not, is becoming a very good player, before our eyes. Suddenly it's not out of the realm of possibility that Bargs could become the "franchise guy"...which is of course, is what you want out of a number one pick. Over the last three months Bargs has averaged over 19 ppg and 6 rpg. He is starting to have a real presence on the floor and his confidence in himself is more and more apparent.
Suddenly, that is a lot of cash invested in two guys, neither of whom are particularly good at creating their own shot or making others around them better, the two things you should want and get from a maximum player. One is going to have to go, and it's going to be the more expensive of the two.
Trading CB4 will be a very difficult move for BC to make. People will be highly critical of the move and any deal will be highly scrutinized. Further, whatever deal is done, the Raptors will need to reap immediate benefits. The Raps organization does not want to be known as the franchise that always deals its best players, even if it makes sense.
Of course the last piece to this puzzle is that if Bosh gets moved it will have to be a team he is willing to not only move to, but be willing to re-sign with. I don't think that is a long list. Bosh will only want to go to big market cities where he can continue to build his persona. He is a very charismatic guy, as evidenced by his exploits in the world of Twitter, Facebook, Youtube and his appearance on CTV News and of course the appearance on the Tonight Show. It's not unfair of him to want to be in a city and situation where he can have the best opportunity to maximize his marketability like the other members of the 2003 draft class.
If I were a betting man I'd put my money on Bosh rocking the jersey of the team the Raps matched up with yesterday.
In some ways I hope I am wrong and things will work out, but after a few conversations and looking at the facts, my advice is to cop some cheap tickets off Stubhub and catch CB4 while you still can.
HOWLAND
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Great piece, H. Your logic is, unfortunately, inexhorable. In my mind, Elliot Friedman lept to the forefront of Canadian basketball journalists with that interview. The "max" question completely ambushed the normally implacable BC. It was great to hear his irritation.
Sometimes journalists ask questions that the interviewee can't possibly answer, and I blame the journalist for wasting valuable interview time. But sometimes they have to ask that question to make a point, both to the interviewee and the audience. And as you demonstrate, the "max" issue is the key to understand how the Bosh saga will play out.
A max player can (a) beat a double team to create his own shot, (b) play strong defence against NBAers, and (c) be good for 40-45 mpg regularly. Bpsh fulfills exactly none of these criteria. I suppose he will end up getting near-max Rashard Lewis money. Of course he's better than Lewis, although even that is too much to pay for Bosh based on your Woods et al salary comparisons.
As for building around Bargnani, I would just feel a whole lot better about this if Bargs had been 28 and 10 yesterday, rather than 28 and 6.
by tecumseh18 on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I don't think I agree with the argument that Bosh isn't worth max dollars based on a comparison to Lebron and Wade. As you pointed out, as wing players they have an advantage over Bosh in how the NBA rules are set up. This argument about whether he is a true franchise player is extremely complicated as I have pointed out before, you could say that about all PF/C in the league. Think about it for a moment. For all the hype about Wade and Kobe being examples of guys worth max money, both of them have the same number of championships, sans Shaq, as Bosh does. 0. This is the thing I think everyone is forgetting here. No player in this day and age can carry a team to a championship on their own. Even the best players in the league need help to win a championship and Bosh has never had that help so to say he isn't a max player based on what has gone on so far is simply unfair.
That being said, I also cannot help but to think back to the Vancouver Grizzlies who overpaid Big Country and pretty much killed themselves in the process (yes there were more factors but that really stands out). So I can see why some would be willing to deal Bosh rather then over pay him when he appears to have plateaued. I have been thinking about switching sides in this argument (to trading him) but I keep coming back to one simple fact. It is easier to find an impact wing player than it is to find an impact PF/C. That is why so many teams gamble in the draft on big men early on (Greg Oden comes to mind here) even though the history of the draft suggests you should take the SG/SF instead. I would hate to see the Raptors trade Bosh away for 60 cents on the dollar and watch as he takes his game to another level (anyone remember how he started the season?) with a different team and we will all be kicking ourselves.
One thing I do know for sure, this will be the ultimate test of BC's tenure here in Raptorland. If he blows this deal (trade or no trade, what he gets etc) he could cripple this franchise for a long time.
by McGateway on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I've gone from all over the spectrum on this issue and I've finally hit that little patch called "acceptance". I don't know that the Raptors necessarily NEED Chris Bosh anymore as much as I might have thought they would have earlier this season. And I would like to say that it's about his worth, and whether he really deserves to be a max player because he does bring a lot of off court intangibles to the Raptors. But I think that a lot of people have shifted in their opinion as well.
For one thing, I don't think the average fan base is as opposed to the idea as it was perhaps even a month ago. A lot of that has to do with both Bargnani and Bosh's own personal life. Now granted, it seems like Bosh might not have been in the wrong, but at the same time, I'm sure more than a few non-sports people have changed their opinion of the guy. Image is important when talking about Chris Bosh, since a lot of his worth to the Raptors has to be tied to the fact that everyone identifies the Raptors with Bosh. Especially the everyman. I mean, no one else on this Raptors team is the face, or even close to being the face. The second face being a distant Anthony Parker.
On the court, it's hard to argue with his numbers, but it was also pointed out to me that a lot of the Raptors' defensive troubles have been a result of his lackluster defense this year. So I took a focused look at his movement yesterday. No matter what we talk about when concerning ourselves with his overall numbers, Bosh's defense has been really suspect even in as recent as yesterday's loss. Granted, I don't think that one game is enough, but I also don't think it's the exception to the rule either. It's something that's been nagging at me for most of the year but Bosh has shown a distinct inability to move his feet when guarding smaller players while also not having the power to muscle against the stronger players in the league. Heck, even Bargnani is starting to get better than him at defending the post. It's just an area that he hasn't improved in over the years and continues to haunt us. That and his constant troubles dribbling in the paint.
When I add that all up together, I'm just not all that opposed anymore to trading Bosh. I'm not saying that I'm 99% convinced like my colleagues, but I think we've seen a distinct change in the overall mentality of the fanbase as far as acceptance over the future status of Bosh. I think we're all more prepared for the possibility at least.
For me, I'm still more along the lines of Jack Armstrong's thoughts that it's around a 50-50 proposition, so we'll see.
Like we've all been saying, it'll be an interesting summer for sure
by Vicious D on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Again, I'd love to see Bosh stick around. I argued black and blue for the first few months of the season that you just couldn't move him, mostly because of how terrible a league history there is for "trading stars." However with Bargs' development, the financial implications of a new max deal for CB4, the team's play this season, and the fact that BC isn't yet in a "lowball offer" situation for Bosh, I'm now thinking that Colangelo may have no choice but to move him this off-season while the value is high. And as Howland mentioned, a number of other logical folks who we've talked to think this too, even though earlier they were opposed to trading the team's main cog.
On another note, I can't believe that the Raptors are in a position to jump from about the 7th or 8th pick in the draft to about the 12th! I'll be talking prospects tomorrow morning but with a couple more wins they could quite possibly leapfrog New York, New Jersey, Indiana and Milwaukee...
by Franchise on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Warning: weak post up coming from TJ. I am not bringing anything new to the table, and mainly just critiquing other posts (posters).
Firstly, with regards to the comparison sample for CB4, I would have liked to have seen KG and TD included. They wouldn’t have the greatest to compare age, but it would be interesting to see what they are being paid, and what they are bringing to the table – as well as the implied possibility of a team winning a championship while paying these players X, while the players contribute Y.
((Which would be related to a discussion from last week: Is it unreasonable to project a 65 million luxury tax in 2010, with Bosh and Bargs making a combined 27 million? // > would this team suck??))
Secondly, I’m not sure I agree with many posters / authors with regards to their parameters for what a certain type of player must to do qualify for a certain status:
"A max player can (a) beat a double team to create his own shot, (b) play strong defence against NBAers, and (c) be good for 40-45 mpg regularly."
Yes those are nice parameters for a max player to have, but that does not change the fact that it might well be in a team’s best interest to pay a guy Max Money, who does not necessarily satisfy each stipulation.
I’m not trying to debate the relative merits of A, B, or C, which all seem fine and dandy from where I am sitting. > Rather, I just always shake my head when I read that a "Franchise Player" is this, or "to qualify for the max someone must..." It doesn’t strike me as particularly sophisticated analysis: It seems more to be deciding on a few parameters, which may or may not be comprehensive, and then valuing players based on these limited criteria.
// as an aside, the worst is when it is argued that CB4 is not a franchise player, and that we should trade him: a scenario is then unfolded in which we flip CB, and all is supposed to be well - except that the players we are left with are even further away from satisfying the particular A, Bs and Cs that this poster had anointed as being the real bench mark for which ever arbitrary distinction (all star, franchise player) was being discussed. > So revisiting the first paragraph of your post, we are still screwed?? Thanks for sharing your thoughts…
Thirdly, and on a related note, this logic also had me scratching my head:
"Why would you pay more, for the same thing, when you have less cash?"
- Because you are making the decisions in very different circumstance. Obviously all things being equal, one would not do that: However, it is 1095 days later, factoring in inflation, economic adjustments, everyone pursuing happiness, climate change, Obama… While "pay[ing] more, for the same thing, when you have less cash" may not be ideal, and may not pass the gut feeling test, it may well be the best decision given circumstance.
P.S. Props to McGateway to a reasoned consideration towards the nuances of max contracts and CB! That is a poster trying to understand a nuanced situation and not beginning with a conclusion!
by TJ Caino on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Hope that didn't come across as too btchy...
Ill be the first to admit most of my posts are poorly edited and lacking substantive analysis.
by TJ Caino on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
TJ:
1. You can't compare Bosh and Duncan. The latter is arguably the best PF EVER. KG is mentioned.
2. " However, it is 1095 days later, factoring in inflation, economic adjustments, everyone pursuing happiness, climate change." Again as mentioned this decision is not coming in 1095 days...it is coming this summer. If you think "Why would you pay more, for the same thing, when you have less cash?" is flawed logic, I am glad you are not my accountant.
3. I am not starting with a conclusion. I am presenting facts for the most part and what the sense is right now. Perhaps the biggest assumption being made here is that half of the salary cap tied up into Bargs and Bosh doesn't necessarily look like a winning formula. If you are spending more on these guys you have less to spend on others. Are Bosh and Bargs going to grow and develop enough that they will produce a 50+ win season taking into consideration the other salary constraints? Given Bosh's production has been flat the past few years (albeit really good), that sure puts a lot of pressure on Bargs.
The definition of a max player would differ depending on who you ask. That is mine.
by HOWLAND on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I don't remember worrying about the salary cap when I was a kid. Kind of sad.
Although it can be an interesting part of the game to analyze, it takes the fun out of the sport part.
After drafting successfully with a # 4 pick, we're now being punished for it because that player turned out worthy of a lot of money. (Which would have been hoped for at the time.)
I think this is why some people get turned off following and supporting professional sports; if the players and various stakeholders aren't emotionally invested why should we be as fans? We don't get any financial "profit" as they do.
Good Article, good to see the team play well. As to the above, IMO, Bosh's defense simply does not command max money; but he will still get a raise no matter where he ends up.
by DayOner on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
There's lots to like about bosh, but here's what I don't like:
When the whole youtube thing started up I didn't think too much about it, but it seems to me the more time bosh spends building his "brand", the less time he spends leading his team.
So he has a great olympics defensively, it carries over for a while, then suddenly it just drops off, he's still 20 and 10ish but no longer looking like the leader we thought he was, which becomes even more glaring when O'neal is traded.
So he's twittering and playing weatherman while his team is losing everything, then we find out he's had GIRL TROUBLE all season long?!? Is this a soap opera or a basketball team? I just question his focus when this kind of thing is going on...
That said, if bosh resigns for a fair number, that redeems him fully. He could put this clust***k of a season behind him and continue to build on the foundation that he helped lay. I think it would show his loyalty and that he wants to build his legend by locking up all the raptors stats and being in the raptor conversation for all time and maybe even becoming a hero for a whole country.
If not, trade him for ben gordon...
by axl on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
After drafting successfully with a # 4 pick, we're now being punished for it because that player turned out worthy of a lot of money. (Which would have been hoped for at the time.)
I think this is a great point.
At some point in the very near future, NBA players are going to have to come to grips with the fact that they are overpaid, otherwise teams will continue to be penalized for having talent, and the game will begin to resemble baseball; only teams in large markets willing to pay the luxury tax will be willing to CONSISTENTLY be title threats.
I had a huge discussion with "the capologist" this weekend and he brought this up:
If players are going to even be paid in the $6 Million range, shouldn't they essentially be the fifth or sixth most valuable player on the team since they're taking up a good percentage of the team's salary room? Suddenly when you look at things in that perspective, nearly all of the NBA is overpaid as players' salaries aren't matching their contribution percentage to a team's victories. Kapono at about $6 Million per year should be one of the team's MVP's but right now I'd say he was the least valuable outside of guys like Jawai and Voskuhl. The capologist and I were discussing that in reality, GM's should be paying players for wins produced, so therefore looking at things statistically. Of course some GM's are gravitating to such methods (Presti, Morey etc) but it's a slow evolution.
by Franchise on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I was pleased to see earlier this year when Bosh was walking the talk when asked about being a league MVP, and how it is one of his goals.
At the same time, the Olympic honeymoon period was shortlived, and whether coincidental or not due to his girlfriend issues, there was a direct correlation in his play and motivation deteriorating as the losses mounted.
Combined with his injury woes and his statistical leveling off i.e. reaching his peak, it would be insanity for the Raptors to max him out.
At a reasonable number I am O.K. with Bosh staying, but the problem will still be that he perceives it to be his team, and the stats and results just show that we can not have CB4 as the focal point of the team.
Can Bargs grow into this role and even if he does, would CB4 accept this? Doubtful. I do not see them co-existing, so keep Bargs, trade Bosh, and look for a slasher that can be a scorer as well in crunch time.
by Brian Gerstein on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I've always wondered if there could be some kind of system were the cap was set and a players were paid a percentage of the cap, so there would be no way to go over the cap and deals would match percentages and not amount. That way teams would not suffer so much in a bad economy.
Lots of problems with this idea, but you look at teams that won championship, there's many great players, but lots who take less money to win.
by axl on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Howland, sorry if my post came across as critical, I really didn’t intend for that tone. In fact, very little of my post was referring to your post in a critical manner.
1. This would be an instance where I was referring to your post, but in a non critical manner. I thought your comparisons were fine for their intended purpose. I was only musing I would be curious to see the larger sample, with an eye towards franchise building with PF’s and what successful and unsuccessful examples might be out there. Not saying any other comparisons of discussions were poor.
2. If was an accountant I’d be a bit upset. But the 1095 days was meant to refer to the 3 years between when Bosh signed his current contract in the summer of 2006, and when BC must make his decision as to keeping him, in this coming summer of 2009. Plus, I think I’d be a pretty good accountant.
3. I wasn’t saying you were starting with a conclusion at all, and I wasn’t referring to your post with that comment. I was generally complaining about the Real GM argument style picking parameters with out any discussion as to whether they were good parameters for the particular decisions at hand. One could argue any conclusion by coming up with parameters after knowing the conclusion to be argued. Which is not necessarily what these people actually do, but for the sake of integrity and transparency, it is good to determine that parameters for inclusion or exclusion were decided independent of the agenda of the individual.
I only took exception to the statement about "why pay more for less", which I feel would be an overly simplistic bottom line to the Bosh situation. Had we been arguing at the harbour front over a pop, I may have called you out to restate your position in a more defensible way.
Anyway, just to add further context to my previous post: My point was that I’m not sure there can be a definition for a max player, because not many would satisfy a strict definition, and because it may well make sense to invest max money in a player who does not satisfy many individual qualifications of Max Money Player Status. And if it might make sense to sign someone to a max contract that does not actually fulfill the definition of a Max player, then what usefulness if that definition to begin with?
Lol > obvioulsy I would prefer to spend most of my waking day discussing the Raps. But it is hard to spend enough time to properly articulate a position while at work.
Especially when it is Monday morning, and my brain feels like a tire with no tread.
by TJ Caino on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Howland - so if bosh goes to chicago, who does to get in return? Im guessing deng or gordon, maybe noah or thomas and a pick or something? Think id rather make the deal with gstate but i get what youre saying about bosh not resigning there.
by fromlongrange on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
BC loves Deng. He'd like to deal with Chicago.
by EaseMyPain on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Sorry TJ, it's a really f'd up day for me as well, which is why I only booked the five-minute argument rather than the full half hour.
I understand your revulsion at my selecting exactly three arbitrary criteria out of the air (to be polite) to determine to my satisfaction that Bosh is not max-worthy. Yes, you got me pegged. I honed my b-ball writing skillz on the big bad RealGM.
And yes, it was result-oriented "analysis". I have already let Bosh go in my mind after observing his demeanour during the second Orlando home game this season. How subjective can you get?
But they aren't bad criteria. In the lowered salary cap/tax threshold environment of the future, GMs are going have to make use of blunt rules of thumb to avoid stupid signings.
Man, this place is becoming as bad Battersbox.ca. And I mean that in a good way.
by tecumseh18 on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I think the next article should be entitled, "Bustin' a cap!"
I was just looking at the top 30 individual salaries as well as the Salary info on each of the 30 teams, there are a lot of conclusions one can draw from that.
From a team standpoint:
1. Money is a poor indicator of success. Only six of the top ten spenders in the league are playoff bound. And there is only 2 million dollars separating the best-ish team in the league from the worst - record wise (Lakers to Kings).
2. We are in no-mans land. Between the 10 and 15 spot, only one team is a certain playoff lock - the Nuggets. Detroit is the other possibly playoff team.
3. The most successful teams have two Max-ish money players. Even if the team is not getting max returns on their investments - see McGrady, Tracy and Wallace, Ben.
4. No team has won anything of note with two max bigs on their roster. Just look at Phoenix and Toronto this year for proof.
On the players' salary side:
1. Apparently, you need one expensive big to win championships. KG, Duncan, Shaq, all make over 20 million.
2. The top 30 salaries are divided up pretty evenly between "bigs" and "smalls" with 14 Bigs and 16 smalls on the list.
So with these conclusions in mind, what should the Raps be looking to do, simply based on the cap numbers and past success' failures.
1. BC should have seen that Bosh + O'Neal = EPIC FAIL. No team with $35 mil+ tied up in two bigs has won a ring in recent memory.
2. A decision needs to be made as to whether a) Bargs will ever be a max money guy. B) whether it is again prudent to have two very talented bigs on one roster.
3. If we stick with Bosh as our Max Money Big, who can we find that is a max-ish player who also fits the small role that has been an essential element to the championship teams. Joe Johnson comes to mind...so does Brandon Roy...Ben Gordon is NOT the answer, however, though he would be an excellent 3rd or 4th man in.
4. Do we keep Marion? What does our roster look like with an available replacement? I.e. Are we better served with a $10 mil 2-guard and Joey Graham at the 3? Or Marion at the 3 and a 3 mil 2-guard? Is there some alternate option? Hedo Turkoglu + Ben Gordon?
My opinion is, Best case scenario, the Raps lock up Bargs for 5 years and 60 million. Not a cap busting figure, but Bargs should easily be the second best player on our current team, based on that salary, and I think that is a realistic projection. Think Josh Smith for a salary comparison - not Dirk. We also re-sign Marion (I know I'll take heat for that) at no more than $10 million.
Looking around the league, the average cost of a starting 5 on a playoff team, is $50 to $55 million.
Bosh (20 mil)+Bargs (10 mil)+Marion (10 mil)+Jose (9 mil)+(insert $8 million 2-guard here) and you've a $55 million dollar starting 5, right on par money wise with the best in the league. Talent wise, who knows, but with a 20-10 guy in Bosh, a 20-5 guy in Bargs, and a 10-10 guy in Marion, a 10 assist 1 turnover guy in Jose and all you need is a clutch scorer who can defend, a bruce bowen/raja bell type, and you've got a great lineup, in my opinion.
Of course, great teams have great benches, and the Raps are far from a great bench! Anyway, this is getting long now. Sorry about that.
by Casey on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
As far as the cap and percentages go, it’s up to GM’s to make better decisions. BC for instance was on the phone at 12:01am the first day of free agency signing Kapono to that ridiculous contact. Doubt he would have gotten that kind of money else where. Why else would he leave South Beach and a team coming of a championship? Players are going to take the most dollars they can get. (as most of us would)
Banks making 4+ mil isn’t even good enough to get on the floor on a bad team. So teams are also punished for bad moves by the GM. JK and Banks 10+ mil, wouldn’t it be nice to have them off the team and have their 10 mil to spend in the off season. (spent wisely of course).
by taylor on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
As far as the cap and percentages go, it’s up to GM’s to make better decisions. BC for instance was on the phone at 12:01am the first day of free agency signing Kapono to that ridiculous contact. Doubt he would have gotten that kind of money else where. Why else would he leave South Beach and a team coming of a championship? Players are going to take the most dollars they can get. (as most of us would)
Banks making 4+ mil isn’t even good enough to get on the floor on a bad team. So teams are also punished for bad moves by the GM. JK and Banks 10+ mil, wouldn’t it be nice to have them off the team and have their 10 mil to spend in the off season. (spent wisely of course).
by taylor on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Casey - GREAT breakdown regarding average salaries etc. And yes, maybe BC should have seen the failure of Bosh and O'Neal based on those historical notes.
I'm starting to think HQ readers could build a solid squad going forward. The key like you mentioned Casey, is what to do at the 2-3 spot. If you can get Marion back for a reasonable price then you need to look at it, and yet you need to keep in mind solidfying that 2 spot. Yes, Gordon is not the answer. Offensively he's an upgrade but I'd rather have Deng or even Jamal Crawford.
by Franchise on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Casey - I agree, wonderful breakdown!
Techumseh - good point - I recall reading BBox and worndering why people would spend so much time criticizing other people's posts. Those who did so certainly gave me a douchie impression of them.
Monday brain drain FTW!
(Speaking of realgm-ism)
by TJ Caino on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
After a 4 game winning streak, where does that leave the Raps?
For those who like saying the words "tank … da tank … let’s tank …", I can only respond with this – the day a team starts tanking, is the day I stop watching them. And loosing one or two draft positions is not the end of the world, nor would I call it a serious mistake. Certainly not when it comes to the 2009 draft. From what I hear that is.
Bosh: Great player, and our franchise player (at least how I see it). Not a Lebron, not worth a Lebron, and hopefully won’t get Lebron bucks. What might be comical about all this, is that Bosh could snag a bigger contract than Lebron. That’s assuming Bosh stays (and gets Max + home town premium), while James gets Max somewhere else. I’d hate to see CB go some where else, but the chance of him getting more than James, would never sit well with me – or many others, I suspect.
Pops: That interview with BC was excellent – I almost missed it when I was zipping through the breaks with my PVR. Knowing that this high-energy guy is effectively tied up by the Raps is welcome news. I’d hate to see us give someone the opportunity to excel, and then hear them say … "adios amigos". For all you baseball fans, Al Lieter comes to mind. Granted, Al was a little different (years of finger problems and such), but when he finally came around – after all that Blue Jay perseverance – he bolts to "greener pastures". Bastard is all I can say to describe him. Hope his finger swells and he has to do his own colon exam.
by RapthoseLeafs on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
The one scenario that isn't getting much if any pub is that one more year of Bosh playing for a contract and his $15mill expiring contract might be worth more than anything we get in trading him before he expires. I don't see Bosh committing to anyone until he knows what LeBron or Wade are going to do, severely limiting any trade partners.
If NBA FA's didn't avoid T.O. like the plague, I'd say let Bosh play out his contract and see where we are in '10. If we can’t convince him to resign at a number we can live with or if he has no interest in signing at all then we have $15mill to spend in a bumper-crop buyer’s free agent market…of course no Bosh means we are even less attractive as a destination and half the other teams have tons of cap space too but this still needs to be considered.
by Raptoronto on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I'm glad to read that people are starting to come around and accept that Bosh will need to go this offseason. And I'm really liking this GS talk... although not so much the Jamal Crawford mentioning (I actually just want to see Ronny Turiaf in a Raps uni)
I do know that there is a history of not getting value for All-Stars, but that does not mean it is impossible (ie. Devin Harris) Regardless of how people feel BC has done in his tenure in T.O. this offseason will be the real test. He can put all his nay-sayers to bed or turn an enitre country against him!
by SwirskysSoldier on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Went on a rant a few weeks ago regarding trading Bosh. Still in favour of exploring a draft day deal but think I've mellowed a bit.
I do think that this team has got the core talent to be a team that can contend for a playoff spot next year but we have a long way to go, depth/talent-wise to compete against the Magic, Celtics, LeBrons and expect an improved Pistons next year. Hawks seem to of arrived, as have the Sixers. Charlotte? A healthy Bucks? Lets hope the Wizards don't stay healthy.You know the Knicks will be looking to improve. The Eastern Conference is young and getting better.
Fact is BC has a lot of work to do to put our beloved Raptors anywhere near the top of the East. To my understanding, even with Marion's expiring deal, we do not have that much to spend.
Throwing maximum money at Bosh would be a mistake. I'd say about 12-15 million a season would be fair and I think we will be outbid by someone for his services. I do not blame Bosh for getting as much money as he can.
BC will not let CB4 walk away for nothing. I do not see BC letting this carry over too late into next season, how much would a team give up for a potential rent-a-player? Look for a draft day deal involving Bosh. Look for BC to get deeper and younger.
by Tinman on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I would say this :
1. Bosh has shown that he can beat the double team, he has also shown that he can make the right pass out of the double team. Has he been as successful as Kobe Bryant doing it? I don’t think so. But the fact that teams feel the need to double tem him is still a notable point.
2. A lot has been made Bosh’s reluctance to drive to the basket, but what people need to understand is that, when he drives to the basket, he’s sure to have someone come and help. For a guy that’s 6’10 to drive to the basket, and make a spin move right in the middle is not an easy task. Stoudamire doesn’t do it; Dwight Howard doesn’t do it, hell I don’t even think Tim Duncan does it!
3. Bosh is a player who can square you up, shoot over you with good efficiency, post up or beat you with a quick step and drive to the basket. There aren’t that many players in the league that can do what he does. Period.
I don’t know that he’s a max player, but to say off the bat that he isn’t is an error. Let’s say Bosh adds 10 pounds this offseason, and suddenly becomes much stronger than last year (a trend that has occurred in the past by the way). Furthermore, let’s assume he becomes a better three point shooter (again a trend that has occurred in the past).
Would we agree that a CB4 who takes up more space in the post, who alters more shots and who stretches the defence more than before (even if he keeps the exact same stats) is more valuable than the CB4 we currently have?
I might agree that Bosh has "platooned" as far as his numbers are concerned. But I highly doubt his game has "platooned" overall. I wouldn’t want to lose Bosh simply because we still don’t know what he’s capable of doing with a good supporting cast around him.
Seriously, he has never had a complete roster! Tim Duncan came in the league in a championship squad. KG was paired with two all-stars when they won last year. Lebron James still had some good role players around him (Ilgauskas, Varejao, Snow, Marshall). Wade had Shaq, Payton, Mourning. Bosh has had….
by Childlike on Apr 8, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

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