RaptorsHQ Stock Watch for March 24, 2009

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Mar 23, 2009 12:00 AM EDT in NBA Draft

Turner is finally getting some draft headlines...too bad he might not declare...

The first two rounds of the 2009 NCAA tourney weren’t quite as mad as other years (no true buzzer beaters as of yet) however there have been lots of great games. Furthermore, with most of the favourites advancing, the Sweet 16 and beyond promises to showcase some great team and individual battles. It’s these individual battles that NBA scouts and GM’s will be paying close attention to and of course, we here at the HQ will be as well.

Currently, the Raptors are sitting around the seventh or eighth pick, lottery aside. Originally I felt that for Toronto to grab an impact player in this draft, they had to get into that top 7. Unfortunately, I think that number may have gone up. With some of the recent performances by the likes of Jrue Holiday, James Harden, Greg Monroe and others, we now may see numerous players electing to return to college next season, thus causing what many are saying to be a shallow talent pool, to become even more shallow.

That’s not to say however that the Raps couldn’t grab a solid player at the ninth or tenth spot, as I, unlike many of my peers do like many of the prospects out there right now.

It’s just that there are already very few players outside of Blake Griffin who look to be able to come in and contribute next season.

So if Toronto is looking to patch major holes via the draft, they better stop beating teams like the Clippers.

Here are our 5 up and 5 down from the first two rounds of tourney action:

Rising

1) Demar DeRozan – Forward, USC:

Earlier this season we had DeRozan on our top 5 list. However since Rogers showed zero Pac-10 games, and the Trojans stumbled early in the season, he fell off our radar. That changed when I discovered Sportsnet showing Sunday night late Pac-10 matches about a month ago. Finally, I got to see why DeRozan was so hyped prior to the season, and with USC’s heroic Pac-10 and NCAA run, hopefully Raptors’ fans got a better look at the 6-7 high-flyer as well.

His USC squad came up short in the end to Michigan State on Sunday, but DeRozan again was virtually unstoppable one-on-one. He finished with 18 points, the same total as in his first-round game, and in both matches showed-off some jaw-dropping athleticism. His game doesn’t have the polish of a Gerald Henderson, another spectacular athlete, or the all-around moxy of a Terrence Williams, but should he declare for the draft, this is a guy who could easily end up being the best player in the draft when all is said and done.

2) Tyreke Evans – Guard, Memphis:

Memphis is another club that didn’t get a ton of play via Rogers’ Sportspack this year. While Evans was in the spotlight more than DeRozan, it was hard to know what to make of his club since the Tigers were far and away the best team in Conference USA. Evans was always solid, but didn’t have the athleticism of peers like Robert Dozier or shooting stroke of Roburt Sallie.

However it’s hard not to be intrigued about Evans as a Raptors’ fan. He’s done a great job at the 1 for Memphis, and looks more and more like a Brandon Roy type with each game. He’s not blowing you away in any one area but has a solid handle, controls the pace, and with his size, is a match-up problem at the 1. Draftexpress has compared him to Larry Hughes and while I think he’s a slightly better shooter even at this point, I can see the similarities as both are solid on-the-ball defenders, can create off the dribble, and can play both guard positions.

For a Raptors club looking for some additional help at both spots, Evans might not be a bad option if he comes out.

3) Johnny Flynn – PG, Syracuse

I’ve been a big Flynn fan since he burst onto the college scene last year. While teammates Paul Harris and Donte Greene were getting most of the attention in Flynn’s freshman season, it’s Johnny on the spot who has become the Orangemen’s heart and soul this year. If you witnessed his performance during this year’s Big East conference playoffs you saw why, and so far in the NCAA tourney he’s picked up right where he left off.

It was in fact very interesting to see Syracuse matched up against Arizona State this past weekend, which featured Flynn going up against the much more heralded James Harden. However if you watched the game you’d be hard-pressed to say who was the better NBA prospect. Flynn created off the dribble, got into the paint almost at will and led his crew to victory. James, who we’ll touch on later in this article, was the complete opposite and finished with a measly 10 points on 2 of 10 shooting.

Flynn is slight of build of course, but he’s a true 1, and a 1 that is becoming more and more common in the NBA; an explosive athlete and scorer, able to get virtually anywhere on the court and create havoc in the lane. His handle is as tight as they come, and he’s a lethal shooter, especially in clutch situations.

The first issue with seeing him in Raptor red is that he’s already stated adamantly that he’s returning to ‘Cuse next year. If that’s the case, Toronto will have to wait until the 2010 draft to get a shot at him. In addition, at only about six feet, he’s not exactly a defensive answer to spelling Jose Calderon even if he does declare. He’d be a great change of pace, but Toronto already has a prospect in Roko Ukic who looks like he’ll be able to fulfill that niche eventually.

4) Evan Turner – SG/SF, Ohio State

Turner is finally starting to get some buzz after his 28 point, 9 rebound, 8 assist performance in Ohio State’s first-round loss to Siena. The scary thing is that Turner had been putting up these type of numbers almost all season for the Buckeyes but in relative anonymity.

I personally love Turner’s game. He’s a better creator off the dribble than players like Henderson or Terrance Williams, is taller and longer, is almost as athletic, and I’d go as far as saying that he’s probably the most underrated player in this draft.

However like Flynn, it sounds like Turner intends to return to school, a big blow for a Raptors squad who could really use the talents of a wing like Turner.

5) Marcus Thornton – PG/SG, LSU

Undersized for the 2 spot? Yes. Not a true point guard? Yes. However we see this every year and every year there are certain players who vow GM’s in individual workouts and work themselves into the first round. Thornton, one of the best scorers in the nation, is my pick for this role for the upcoming draft.

It doesn’t matter who he’s matched up against, be it an athlete like Jodie Meeks in SEC play, or Ty Lawson during the NCAA tourney, Thornton still gets his and in the process, helps keep his team in the thick of the game. He’s not a pass-first type, but he’s hardly selfish either and for a Raptors team looking for some fight and a spark off the bench at the 1-2 spot, Thornton would be an absolute steal if he fell into the second round. (Assuming of course that Colangelo could grab a pick there.)

Falling

1) Jeff Teague
2) James Johnson –

I can’t even begin to explain how pathetic Wake’s performance was in the NCAA tournament. Yes, this is a young team, but on talent alone they should have been a lock to get out of the first round. Instead, the club imploded early, looked lost on both ends of the court, and of their three top prospects, Teague, Aminu and Johnson, only Aminu showed any sort of grit. Johnson in fact, their most physical presence, insisted on launching 3-pointer after 3-pointer ala Zach Randolph.

As a result, I’m not sure we’ll see any of these three in the draft now. Of the trio, Teague is probably the best bet but with their disappointing finish, it’s not hard to imagine them regrouping for another NCAA run. Next year’s draft isn’t shaping up to be that much better in terms of talent and for Teague, there will probably be a lot less competition in terms of point guards who are declaring.

I’m still a big Aminu fan, and perhaps if he declares, Wake’s late season drop-off lowers his stock into Raptors’ range, but as of now, I’m not getting my hopes up.

Franchise is still a big Harden fan...but the tourney's been proof that he's not the second coming of D-Wade...

3) James Harden – SG, Arizona State

Of all the top dogs slated to be available in the upcoming draft, Harden’s stock took the biggest plunge. He was mediocre at best for Zona State in their first-round match-up and was essentially invisible in their loss to Syracuse on the weekend. Yes, Cuse’s Zone gave Arizona State all sorts of trouble, but for a player who spent the season living at the free-throw line in the Pac-10, Harden took far too many long-range jumpers.

In addition, when he did attack the basket, his handle looked sloppy and he struggled against the Orangemen’s more athletic defenders like Jackson and Harris.

However there’s a big caveat to all of this. Watching Harden over the weekend I think told me more about this year’s draft class and the Pac-10 this year than anything else. I still view Harden as one of the top prospects, but it’s simply an indication of what to expect from this year’s class. I don’t think Harden has star potential, but does that mean he wouldn’t be a solid player for Toronto? Not in the least, and if he falls to Toronto somehow, BC would be wise to snatch him up.

4) Jrue Holiday – PG/SG, UCLA

Every year in the draft we see a player declare to soon. As a result, his stock suffers, and at times he gets lost in the rotation of a team that’s either a poor fit, or too talented for him to find minutes on. Therefore it sometimes takes years for that player to start to break out. This year, Jrue Holiday looks to be a perfect candidate for this role.

Holiday was probably the most heralded freshman going into the NCAA season. He was seen as serious competition for Collison at the 1, and many believed he’d follow in the footsteps of Russell Westbrook in terms of helping the Bruins back into the final stages of the NCAA tourney. However that didn’t occur, and were it not for Darren Collison’s defence on Eric Maynor in the first round, UCLA might have been knocked out quite early. Instead, Holiday and co. ended up getting into the round of 32 but were destroyed by a much more superior Villanova squad.

What was disappointing was not so much that UCLA lost to Nova, but how they did it. The club looked disorganized offensively, and Holiday was Exhibit A in this mess. He forced things, failed to take advantage of match-ups, and ended up hitting only one of his six shots while turning the ball over four times.

So why would Holiday declare? It’s a great question, as with Collison off into the NBA next season, the Bruins would essentially be Jrue the Damaja’s team to run. However the lure of the NBA might be too much for this talented frosh and while I still think he’ll be a solid pro down the road, I’m hoping the Raps stay away for now.

5) Greg Monroe – PF/C, Georgetown

Monroe of course didn’t get a taste of the NCAA tournament thanks to G-Town’s disappointing season, but the Hoyas did continue to play in the NIT. Unfortunately, the results weren’t much better and Georgetown was bounced by Baylor in the first round. And Monroe, who I was so high on early in the season, turned in another ho-hum performance with 12 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists in the loss.

Monroe’s upside is still greater than most of the prospects at the college level but I’m not sure he’s got the requisite toughness that Toronto needs for such a big body. He’s got a feathery shooting touch around the rim, has a great feel for the game, and has legit NBA size, but I’m just not sure he’s the best fit for the Dinos, even with his talent. Furthermore, with Georgetown’s performance this year and it being only his freshman season, I’m not even sure he’ll declare now. Numerous mock drafts have taken his name off their lists and while it’s not official, this is probably the best thing for him career-wise in the long-run.

FRANCHISE

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Comments

Jesus.
I don't even know what to think about Bosh's paternity suit that was reported this morning in The Star. In fact, Franchise and I had a discussion about Bosh's very future with the Raptors. With the season the way it is going, and fans looking to latch onto something, things could now get very interesting, very fast. I think we may very well see a huge shift in Bosh's image in Toronto if the allegations are true, and at the very least, they're extremely plausible from the sounds of Dave Feschuk's article.

There was a time a couple weeks ago, that I believed there was no way the Raptors would trade Bosh, if simply because of his marketability and his image in Toronto... Especially for the off court cache he brings. But now, I feel as if the door has at least opened a little for the possibility.

If you guys want to read the full article, it's here: http://www.thestar.com/Sports/NBA/article/607198

by Vicious D on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Well...the cat...is outta the bag.

Howland actually came across this information almost a monthago however we debated about breaking the story. I'll let him touch on this in more detail, but in the end, we chose to take the high road here and not being incorporated as of yet, felt that if the Star and Globe wanted to wade into this, that was up to them.

That being said, it does explain a lot regarding the drop-off in Bosh's play...

by Franchise on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

The Bosh story is an interesting one. When it was brought to my attention a few weeks ago we debated breaking the news. It is a "VERIFIED COMPLAINT FOR CUSTODY, CHILD SUPPORT AND OTHER RELIEF" as per the court documents.

Obviously questions that arise are how much this has effected his play, how public this gets, and whether this hurts his marketability....something he has been pushing a lot lately.

That being said I don't think it will impact whether Bosh is a Raptor next year because I believe that decision is 99% made....more on that later.

by HOWLAND on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Hell hath no fury...

by axl on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

... like a gold-digger scorned.

by Observer on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I know that's not nice. That being said, I think that we know very little truth about this situation.

What I read in the Star was certainly biased: (1) Abandoning someone is disgusting... especially if you are apparently committed, but the fact that she had cramping in her pregnancy doesn't exactly pull my heart strings (2) Now she has to live in a two-bedroom apartment (like 90% of Americans). Imagine that! (3) She was a Chef for the Dallas Cowboys first?

I'm over analyzing this.

by Observer on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Regarding Bosh:

The fact that this is in the media means that Bosh most likely refused to settle 'out of court' with an over the top cash payout settlement.

So he takes his lumps in public for the time being, takes the media onslaught until he gets a not so speedy trial - or better settlement terms.

Regarding the draft:

I would be awed if we could still net two or three prosepects.

It would be nice to have first dibs on DeRozan, T.Williams (what about getting both?)

Late first rounders seem quite agreeable too...

How much love is the HQ showing Tyler Smith?
I would certainly use a 2nd round pick on him - if he was available.

by JENGE on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Late on the draw on this one but looks like Quincy Douby aka Madlib is the newest Raptor. We'll talk more about him tomorrow morning but with Banks not even able to play, and considering his mammoth contract,this season just gets better and better doesn't it?

by Franchise on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

From what I read

by TJ Caino on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

From what I read, Bosh allegedly purchased fertility drugs for her in an effort to... Well you know.

I'm really not sure I see the incentive there from Bosh. I mean, let nature run it's course. But why be in such a rush, and then pull a 180 and not want to be with the person. Doesn't seem like something Bosh would do.

However, I can't imagine a 6'6" Bosh macking too many ladies in high school, so maybe he just got a bit excited. I mean, I went to a strip club a couple weeks ago with buddies from work, and it's just a good thing I didn't bring a wedding ring (or much money) cause girls can do strange things to guys. (I don't mean I had anything strange 'done' to me btw.)

Hopefully Bosh will weather the storm and this will be demonstrated as false.

We'll see though.

I'm interested to see this 99% stuff also - especially since you guys seem to have inside scoop these days.

by TJ Caino on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

dude!! what kind of a bomb is that?!?!!? 99% sure??!?!?!

and then you leave us hanging?! don't do it!!

as for the dead beat dad part - I'm shocked. didn't see it coming and it can't be good for his rep. dude should of just put up the dough right away. especially if it's true that there's been a paternity test and the bingo lights are flashing over his head.

and funny how both doug and dave immediately brought up his downward spiral in play coinciding with the events. sounds like they've been siting on this info for a while. like howland, apparently. crazy stuff.

by papa on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

interesting also that feschuk hasn't allowed comments on that article.

by papa on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

It's also interesting that Feschuck waited to publish the article until Bosh's birthday.

Classy move.

by wesd on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Idont believe that story about bosh,being a deadbeat dad, its sound like a goldigger gone crazy...we shouldnt jump to any conclusion uless we get all the facts...keep your head up bosh

by Maurice on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Wesd, who cares if it was his birthday?

Is he still 7 years old and we have to make sure that he has the best party ever so the kids on the street will want to be his friend?

He is a grown adult with adult responsibilities and like the rest of us there are days that the sun don't shine out of our behinds!

Let's please put this in context. He has earned over 100 million and is due to make more than than in the future. Even if he was innocent and it was not his kid and somehow he lost this case he would still be filthy rich. Is it a bummer that he loses 14 million, yes, but that would not change a thing from a lifestyle point of view. I would rather hope that you had a bit more sympathy for someone like a neighbor of yours who just lost his job and now has to drastically change the way he lives to accommodate for this fact. Thats my two cents on the matter anyways.

by Oyster Boy on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Maurice, Golddigger or not, Bosh seemed to make the judgement call in having a baby with this women. Therefore, if she goes money crazy or not, that is still on him and the responsibility is his. Good on him to acknowledge the fact, but are we supposed to feel sorry for him?

As mentioned, worst case scenario, the guy still has a huge contract coming his way and can still eat and sleep and keep his job. To me that is all i need to know to not worry about him. I would rather focus my attention on individuals who cant eat, find a place to sleep and work.

by Oyster Boy on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

on the 99% story,
I agree with Howland and I believe the decision has been taken to deal Bosh. I am the first to admit I have just circumstantial evidence but I have noticed a tendency to "prop up" Andrea's performances even beyond his merits. I am a Bargnani fan but I could not avoid noticing the attempt (well at least what I perceived as an attempt) to establish his status as a franchise player or at least as a viable face of the franchise.

by renato on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Franchise, love your picks!
Derozan might be my number 1
Flynn and Evans definantly.
I like to think of Harden more like a Paul Pierce type, maybe not the fastest but very good overall player and scorer. One guy who should be there based on his pedigree is Brandon Jennings.
2nd round I'm thinking older smart players. G. Henderson, Ellington, Hansborough, even Robinson(Uconn). But Evans and Derozan or Jennings I think will be real legit All Stars.

by Doug on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Doug - Can't wait for the draft...probably the reason why I'm watching NIT games right now (great battle between Mills and Curry last night) and was watching the College Invitational tourney the other evening...

Cricket cricket.

We don't want to leave folks hanging here on the 99.9 per cent certain thing but we'll be discussing this at length in a post soon. Essentially, after our capologist broke down the numbers, it wasn't hard to see that it's going to be very tricky to retain Bosh and Bargs long-term, especially with the contracts of Kapono and Banks acting as cement shoes...

Who knows what the situation is with Bosh and "the plaintif" however the Star's take does seem a bit strategic does it not? Doug barely touches the matter and lets Dave do the dirty work, and Dave's post, as someone mentioned, doesn't allow comments and is timed right in the most meaningless stretch of games.

Hmmm...

by Franchise on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Keep your head up Chris.

I've been pretty negative this season, but I for one don't care about their personal lives; that's why thy are called that.

Everyone loves Kobe despite his "incident" but they're gonna get down on Chris for this kind of hearsay lawyer garbage, gimme a break.

Bosh is a stand up dude. Period. End of story. If any BS has gone down in his life then he'll take care of it; and we can get back to watching crappy ball.

Seriously, it sucks that Bosh might command huge cash, (as was already expected anyway); but I just can't see trading a 25 year old Bosh as a good move. Trust me, I don't think it would end in our favour.

Keep your Heads up too, Raptor Nation.

by DayOner on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Maybe this weak scandal and Shaq's comment will make Bosh go crazy in the gym this off season, and comes into camp like 255lbs. Like Dayoner said, You'd never get anything close as far as equal return for a 25old Bosh. Colangelo is going to do great this off season and Bosh will come into to next camp focused on team. And will have a Derozan to fill the basket.
I don't think any Man who makes 15 million a year, can ever be called a deadbeat, impossible, never happened.

by Doug on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Wow......I just read the Bosh thing; totally caught me off guard because I didn't see Bosh as the type of individual who would have these kinds of stories swirling around him. I agree with Mr. Doug Smith, that this evolving situation may have affected his on court performance; that and the fact the Raptors sucked in spite of his big numbers early in the season.

As far as the draft goes, I think it's funny that a player like Derozan is heralded when he was inconsistent all year, and had a couple of solid games in the tourney. Also, I've read that some scouts are down on him since they don't believe he is, or will be, a good shooter and in the NBA defenders will play off him. I agree that this draft is weak, but it might make it easier for BC to acquire another first rounder, and even if the Raps don't add a star, I think everyone will settle for some good players who will add depth.

Rob

PS-I just want to get something straight:
Howland, Franchise, Vicious.....you guys are all on the trade Bosh bandwagon? And if any of you are, how do you think it will go down?

by 2nd Raps fan in LA on Mar 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

The 99.9% doesn't mean very much in the scheme of things (though it is an impressive number to whack a jury over the head with during a trial) as it leaves the possibility of a sibling (*Cough* Joel *Cough) or other close relative as a possibility of being the father (hence why it is not 100%). I am more interested in seeing the final details as I am confused about a number of issues raised especially in light of how Bosh has been marketed to fans.
1. Why he dumped her after he came back from the olympics? I haven't met Bosh and there are a number of possible reasons that this may have occured (cheating by either one of them, distance didn't make the heart grow fonder etc). The timing is odd however, considering she was 7 month's pregnant at the time.
2. The fertility drug allegation is extremely bizarre. Why on earth would a 25 year old man want a baby that badly with someone that they would fertility drugs for them? This one stretches the plausibility scales a little and I would be really interested to see if he bought them knowingly or if he was unaware that he was purchasing them (e.g. "honey, I need some new "Birth (Control implied) Pills", can you get some at Walmart? Here is the prescription" or did he really want a child with her that badly?
3. Why did it take so long for this story to come out? I cannot help but wonder if this a move by someone to give grounds to move Bosh in the summer over keeping him (i.e. if the Raptors want to move him this will give them one more excuse as to why they are doing it).

by McGateway on Mar 25, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

RapsFaninLA - I wouldn't say it's inevitable in my mind yet. I believe that it's just a possibility with a higher probability now that this has come to light. We will surely have a larger discussion concerning the issue and the reasoning behind Howland, Franchise and my own comments in the future, but for now, I'd say that we'll leave the discussion for another day. I think I need at least a few more days to process the lay of this scandal, and I want to hear comments from Bosh's lawyer.

As for all the conspiracy theorists out there, notice that Bosh never denied that she's his daughter, and in fact pretty much confirmed it yesterday. So we'll see how this whole "child support" thing gets taken care of because it is a serious hit to Bosh's image.

by Vicious D on Mar 25, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Don't know about you all, but I've been awfully impressed with Sam Young - Pitt wouldn't be in the Elite Eight without him. Excellent athlete, good defender and rebounder, and can score in a variety of ways. Am I missing something? Why doesn't he get more hype?

by Skywalker on Mar 27, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions