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3 In the Key – Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. Timberwolves

Can the Raps prevent Ryan Gomes from playing big? They better.

Can the Raps prevent Ryan Gomes from playing big? They better.

This is a must win game.

You will hear this for every Toronto Raptors game going forward until this team is either (a) mathematically eliminated from the post-season or (b) shock many and secure a playoff spot late in the season. It has gotten to the point where there really is no margin for error. This team is 5.5 games out of the eight spot.

If the Raptors do want to make the post-season they absolutely must beat teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves. There are no ifs, ands or buts allowed.

The question I have at this point is whether we should want this team to make the playoffs at all. Is the goal actually to grab the eighth seed and then get absolutely hammered by the Cavs (or maybe the Celts)? Just the thought of that is enough for me to hope that the Raps come up short and frankly I think they will.

It actually wouldn’t surprise me to see the Raps, despite the importance of this game, come out flat and end up in a battle with the greatly undermanned Wolves team. In fact I expect it.

The Raps have done little this season to make me believe they will do what they need to. I just don’t trust them.

On paper the Raps should take care of business and after Sunday’s solid performance things seem to point towards a Raptors W. Shawn Marion is slowly getting acclimatized to his new mates (and perhaps more importantly vice-versa) and CB4 is starting to get his legs. Meanwhile on the flip side the Wolves are 2-8 in their last ten and clearly miss their franchise guy Al Jefferson.

Why then would I not bet on this game to save my life? Every time I think the Raps are starting to turn it around they lay a stinker and I don’t think anyone would be surprised if they did tonight.

I guess that is what will make me watch this match-up. I am interested to see what the Raps do. Will they take care of business or will it be another train wreck? In either case it will be hard to look away. It’s the nature of my relationship with this Raptors squad. I can’t help but keep coming back for more. It has really become the equivalent of an emotionally abusive relationship.

In order for the Raps to secure the W they will need to focus on the following:

1. Play Hard from the Tip – I think we will learn all we need to know about the outcome of the game in the first five minutes. Which Raptors squad will show up? The team that threw in the towel before the game even started like Friday night or the one that got after it on Sunday? If it is the former don’t count out the Wolves despite their best offensive player being Ryan Gomes.

2. Attack the Rim – The Raps need to keep three words in their mind right from the opening tip. Attack, attack, attack! It is pretty obvious that Shawn Marion is willing to attack the opposing team’s defense but will anyone else join him? There is no reason why CB4, Bargs, Parker and Graham can’t attack the rim at will. The Wolves are small up front and don’t have a shot blocker. The Raps have to take advantage, but again will they? The last time these teams met up the Raps were happy to settle for jumpers for most of the game. They can’t do that this time around. Despite the injuries the Wolves did push the Lakers to the brink a few short nights ago.

3. Close Out – Without Al Jeff the Wolves are relying heavily on the three point shot. In their last game against the Lakers the Wolves starting five took 23 attempts from beyond the arc and hit 9 of them. The Raps defenders must get a hand up and force these guys to put the ball on the floor. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see guys like Mike Miller and Randy Foye light it up and keep the Wolves in the game.

Which version of the Raps will show-up tonight?

HOWLAND

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Hey, Boston just beat denver by 40. Denver beat us by 40, so maybe the next time we play the Celts, they can get the first shutout in NBA history.

Cynicism aside, the Raps seem to have taken the mindset of good Joey/ bad Joey. Now that Joey seems to come more consistently to the good side, can we see the Raps follow suit?

here's hoping that the game against is another step in that direction.

And please, folks, NO MORE parade talk no matter what the result, ok?

by gerry on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

So do we start at Yonge? Bay?

Last game was some of the best basketball I've seen the raps play - certainly that game had the best flow since Garbo went down.

Hopefully we can keep the full court game going tonight with some good D, fast break conversions from Bosh and Bargs, and some nice open threes in transition from Kapono and Calderon.

I haven't posted much since the trade went down. For the record, I was feeling optimistic with the speculation of resigning marion to a reasonable deal, bringing delfino and rasho back, using the mle and having a pick.

But all of that optimism was overshadowed by Marions 15 rebound 6 assist performance. Sure it was the knicks, and it was only one game, but this guy is looking like a solid piece. Soo much better than moon. Plus graham has been sttling in well recently, and might be a solid guy off the bench afterall. I'm trying not to get too far a head of myself, however.

by TJ Caino on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

So a rental player comes in and all of a sudden we change the system to suit this player. It doesn't matter the roster is not build for this kind of game.If this is the style we want to play then BC has to completely change the roster this summer. I personally hate it because it is a losing style and eliminates the need for playing fundamental b-ball.
We definitely should mix it up more between half-court and fast breaks depending of the circumstances. However in play-offs the game becomes almost exclusively a half-court game. I do admit the run and gun it is a very entertainment style of b-ball and maybe that's all BC wants to do.

by Daniel on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

... Not sure I used overshadowed in the right way... But I was optimistic, and now I'm more optimistic. (I feel a bit like G W Bush.)

by TJ Caino on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Sadly, I have to disagree with your prediction Howland, even though I agree with your reasoning. You're right in saying that every time the Raps' have had a chance to disappoint this season, they've taken full advantage of it. And that is why I think they'll win; my logic, skewed by having my heart torn out by the Raps so many times, leads me to the conclusion that since I want them to lose they will instead come out like gangbusters. In fact, I'm predicting a shellacking of the Wolves of the highest order. And then I"m predicting a deluge into my inbox from all my half-asses-raps-fans buddies saying,"see, I told you Marion was all we needed to be elite".

It's only fitting that such an inept team also be incapable of the simple act of tanking a lost season.

by RaptorsAddict on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Howland's final question hit the nail on the head. For me, the playoffs are secondary goals. The first goal right now is to integrate Marion as quickly as we can. We might say that last game showed that the Raptors have already done so, but the fact that they haven't run any plays for him yet show how far off they are from having Marion an integral part of the team. Just having a SF that can push the ball really helps, but the Raptors keep missing Marion on cuts, and it's going to take a while.

Only other thing I want to see is how the Raptors manage to score. We can't just expect 4 players to post double doubles every night. Parker is a likely candidate to drop off, and Bargnani's 28 was definitely an aberration. It'll be important to see where the slack will get picked up by this team.

by Vicious D on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Daniel - it appears likely Marion is not a total rental player, and that we will at least realize value from him in the form of a sign and trade. Also, I fundamentally disagree that Bosh, Bargs or Calderon cannot play an uptempo style.

RapsAddict - sucks to hear from half hearted fans on such matters, but there are many legit raps fans, with solid understandings of basketball the game as well as the CBA/ business side of things who are optimistic about how Marion can fit with our roster.

by TJ Caino on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Regardless of whether Marion stays or goes....

I think his stay here will help Joey G in the same way...

... that Jermaine helped Alfred E. Bargnani.

by JENGE on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

TJ Caino - Bosh, Bargs and Jose have never played uptempo b-ball. Actually it is against everything they were taught in Europe or Bosh played while a Raptor. They may adjust however from a cost-benefit perspective shouldn't we bring a coach able to emphasize our strenghts than vice-versa?Anyway, the final 24 games will reveal a lot about our players and the style that fits us best. Maybe old horses will learn new tricks.

by Daniel on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Actually Eurpoean b-ball is played at a much faster tempo than NBA ball. I'm not suggesting that Calderon is better suited to play up-tempo basketball, but the concept is not totally foreign to him. Besides, Spain plays a much quicker game than the Raps have in the past with Jose at the helm. I believe we play half-court basketball to suit Bosh as our go-to guy. Bargs as we clearly saw on Sunday can run for his size...just my thoughts!

by Assistant GM on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I was about to post the same thing as TJ Caino and Asst GM - the core of the Raps are well suited to a run-and-gun team - indeed I'd argue that it was Smitch who dealt that style a body-blow when it was first attempted back in BC's inaugural season.

Bosh in particular with his thin frame is NOT well suited to a bang and bash half-court game and would greatly benefit from playing in a more uptempo system. Calderon is almost a Nash clone in his efficient distribution abilities and on-the-fly style, and Bargs is arguably the most mobile 7 footer in the league other than Yi.

And of course, Marion is still the Matrix.

I can't believe the change in Joey G this year - it's really shocking to me that he went from most-likely-to-be-traded-for-a-pancake-breakfast to match-up nightmare as a 6th man.

Here's the reason I am still in Camp A (the optimists); a team going through the changes that the Raptors are going through takes both patience and health.

Whenever anyone got traded to the Suns it always (ALWAYS) took a while for them to adjust because the fitness level required to run all the time was so demanding - and because the prior team was invariably built for slow half-court offensive sets that prioritized muscle over speed, the new guys were always getting tanked halfway through games.

As the Raptors retool their style to a running game this different level of fitness will start to come around - but it also requires guys like Bosh and Calderon to be healthy enough to play it, and that is something most of the season (since Smitch left) they haven't been.

Yeah, this is a lost season - but tanking for a pick is the Leafs way of doing things, and there isn't a Tavares in this draft class that can step in and be a franchise building block - so for me it makes no sense to suck hard deliberately ala the Leafs.

I have three predictions;

1. BC signs Marion
2. BC trades for an extra pick to restock the teams depth.
3. Triano is the coach next year and we run and gun from the word Go.

by Bedhead on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

AGM and BH glad you agree with the regards to our capabilities with the run and gun. I have read several comments touting calderon as more than capable to play such a style based on his time with Spain and
Tau.

Adding more depth at the guard positions will really help, and I believe delfino would also compliment this style.

Bedhead - I disagree about BC using multiple picks for depth. Firstly because his style seems to be more towards asset consolodation. And secondly, after resigning our guys (including delfino and marion), using the MLE, and selecting one pick, our roster is at 14.

So there is room for a second pick - but I hope we can use the MLE and bring Rasho back instead of some late first round guy, who could be a Stucky, but more likely will just sucky.

by TJ Caino on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

well we can also take this angle: if the raps somehow miraculously manage to secure a playoff spot - it means they've managed to ramble off 17 or 18 of their last 24 games. which means they would be playing some pretty serious basketball. which means a show-down with either the celtics or the cavs at that point wouldn't necessarily have to be a blowout.

how's that for optimism? the logic is sound, though. (I think.)

in any case, let's start with the minny game tonight and see what happens. this is soooo one of those games the raps like to cough up. we'll see if anything has really changed.

by papa on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I should qualify that prediction about trading for an extra pick, as I think it is just as likely he uses cash to move up picks and get the guy he wants (which I would guess is Aminu).

The other thing I would keep an eye on is the whereabouts of fired Memphis boss Iavoroni. He was a Suns assistant under BC and he would have the chops to be an excellent coaching staff addition - especially if we are sersious about trying to run teams off the floor.

by Bedhead on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

The season is over, period.

Look to the draft and the offseason happenings,

No more needs to be said.

by Statement on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I would like to see the Raps make the playoffs, as we all know anything can happen in the playoffs. Confidence is a hell of a thing and the Raps might surprise a few folks in the post season. The main reason for the long regular season is to make the playoffs and if the Raps can come back and sneak into the post season, no matter what happens it will be a confidence booster for the team, the coaching staff and the GM. I understand Howland's concern with the team but the Raps schedule is a little lighter with a lot of days to practice and rest, so putting a string of wins together is quite possible if the Raps bring the team that played the Knicks on sunday which I think they will, there is a lot of pride at stake for these guys and I remember on Raps team that won 12 of their last 14 and make it to the playoffs and gave Detriot a scare....so lets not worry about draft pics if we don't get a good one, BC will have some flexibility in the off season to pick up the othere pieces of the puzzle that is needed....So here's the cheering on the Raps to the post season....and please no more trade Bosh on this site we are far more intelligent basketball fans than that....raps4life.

by RAPS4LIFE on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Very good quote from RAPS4LIFE

"and please no more trade Bosh on this site we are far more intelligent basketball fans than that...."

I Love this site because majority of you guys are very intelligent and have a realistic perspective on Raptors basketball. Trading CB4 is just plan non-sense!

by JordanFanatic on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

the emotional abuse analogy is too true.

However, I don't understand this 'not sure if we should want them to make the playoffs' thing. Even if they get pounded at least they get the experience, and a kickin' run to end the season would be a great boost of confidence going into next year - it would salvage something out of this otherwise crappy season.

having said that, there's no way this team is making the playoffs. they'd have to go from being inconsistent, weak-willed and incohesive to winning the vast majority of games over a 20+ game stretch. won't happen, unfortunately.

by benjibopper on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

most-likely-to-be-traded-for-a-pancake-breakfast

This line made me laugh out loud - someone needs to compile all the expected returns from a Joey Graham trade these past few years. You'd end up with some pancake breakfasts, some twinkies, a bag of hammers and various other useless things...including re-acquiring Hoffa.

As excited as I am to watch Evan Turner and Ohio State play, I'm also looking forward to tonight's match. I think TJ Caino touched on a great point about the "flow" on Sunday. I too hadn't seen things run on motor oil like that in two seasons at least.

Let's hope they can keep it up tonight against a Minny squad that gave the Lakers a run over the weekend. Bargs needs to be aggressive from the jump and the team needs to come out firing on all cylinders - no more of this great effort/terrible effort stuff.

by Franchise on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

This game should be a lock for the Raps, Minny is quite aweful on the road, so lets not stress our selves out. Raps will beat this team by 20. Its time to get serious and if the Raps want to make a run these are the games that is a must win, actually every game from here on in is a must win, I figure we will have to win 16 or 18 of the next 24 like Papa says and checking the schedule we have 14 of those 24 games at home which I think the Raps can take 11 to 12 of those games, which leave them needing to win 5 or 6 on the road. here is how it looks
ON THE ROAD:
PHOENIX
DALLAS
HOUSTAN
PHILLY
CHARLOTTE
ORLANDO
KNICKS
INDY
WASHINGTON
CHICAGO

HOME:
MINNY
MIAMI
UTAH
DETROIT
INDY
CHARLOTTE
CLIPPERS
BUCKS
OKC THUNDER
CHICAGO
NEW YORK
ATLANTA
WASHINGTON
PHILLY
We know any team can win any given night but this is crunch time and looking at our home games we should win all of them but you never know. The road is a little tougher but we should be able to take 6 and spilt the games against the magic, dallas, houstan and phoenix. So making the playoffs doesn't look so far fetched. Lets take a line from President Obama...Yes we Can...shot out to all my true Raptors fans....Raps4life

by RAPS4LIFE on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Just a quick point on the off-season - If BC re-signs Parker, Marion, Graham and then brings back Delfino and Rasho I will start looking for another team to cheer for. Look at this team's record and tell me why most if not all of these guys should not be let go. There will be lots of guys available this summer (although not all big names) who could do what Parker et al do but better (depending on the system). As fans it is too easy to fall in love with current players even when the team is bad. The thing to remember is the team is bad because of the players (in most cases).

I think it is a safe bet that the Raps make a couple of picks in this years draft.

by HOWLAND on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

For giggles (and because I was bored) I spent half an hour playing with ESPN's draft machine and for 50 spins it always came up the same;

Al-Farouq Aminu

by Bedhead on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I'm going to second what Howland just said (minus cheering for another team).

I think BC has to look at EITHER Parker or Delfino. Not both. Giving Graham a qualifying offer (nothing more). Convince Marion to stay at a fair price (it's not just a matter of signing him... I mean, who wants to play for the team that put up Friday's effort. This final 20+ games is not about the playoffs... it's about showing a pulse for next season). And forget about the rest, dump them or ship them out... in fact... any of the above should also be considered prime candidates for a sign and trade.

It's kind of sad for us Raptor fans to be so enthralled at what Marion has brought to the team... it's almost as if we have forgotten what a real basketball player can do. It's even more funny that Marion possesses all the skills this team lacks, yet his biggest flaw is something we've grown tired of seeing anyway: the jump shot. And in a way, his ugly jump shot makes us Raps fans cringe the same way any other player on the roster does when they shoot, only for completely different reasons!

by lessthanzero on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Of course I was joking about cheering for another team...I would however be unhappy if this was the result of the off-season.

by HOWLAND on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Howland- I guess it is a matter of opinion, and depends what is available.

So we have two roads, the cap space road, or the exemption road.

Cap space guy(s)
DP

Marion
Delfino
Graham
Parker
MLE
LLE (rasho)
Draft Pick

Speculation is we may be able to acquire some good talent with the MLE. And I'm just not sure what team we'd have even if we managed to acquire a top flight talent with that space - given we'd be renouncing 4 rotation players as well as our exemptions to realize that space.

I think that in the interest of competativeness in Bosh's walk year, the later option is preferable.

Plus, BC can still move our pick on draft day to consolodate more assets and get another legit starter (SG) for the team.

by TJ Caino on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Anyone know if the game is only on TSN 2 tonight? I couldn't find it so I'm assuming that's the case...

Dan.

by Dan on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

PS... Bedhead,

Tried the draft machine for about 20 minutes. I got 10 minutes of 8-10th and picking Aminu then number 1 and Blake Griffin. This was followed again by 10 minutes of... yup, you guessed it 8-10 and Aminu and capped by again getting number 1 and Blake Griffin.

by Dan on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I agree with Howland's points; as a fan I'd be disappointed if we didn't see a new starting SG/SF this summer. Also, even if we won the next 3 games in a row, I wouldn’t be convinced that this team as built will be consistently competitive over 82 games. I agree Marion is a heck of an upgrade and should be kept this summer but to bring back Parker and Delfino as compliments to the core does absolutely nothing to improve this team. We need at least 2 very good signings this summer in my opinion; a starting SG and a big, solid rebounder C/PF to come off the bench. If we acquire those two at the very least I’d agree with coming back with the same core while bringing back either Delfino or Parker but not both (as someone above mentioned).

Tonight’s game should be fun and there is no way we should lose this one and even if we do, I want to see some fight and energy out there. GO RAPS.

by Member29 on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I disagree with everyone who is saying Parker should not be retained; however, it all depends on the price.

Howland, are you telling me that if BC can get Parker to sign a 2 year extension for 5-6 million, that would be bad???

Mind you, I wouldn't go above that term or money, but Parker is a good player, who can be a back-up PG if the situation dictates. If you get rid of him, then you have Claderon followed by Ukic/Banks, and should Calderon get injured again, that will be our PG combo going forward. No Thanks! I'll take Parker, for his leadership, defense, versatility and value (if he can be signed cheaply).

Now as far as Rasho and Delfino go, I agree with Howland that those guys need not be brought in.

What we will really need this off-season is a guy who can play with the second unit and be the main scoring option with that group; unless you think Joey is the answer.

Rob

by 2nd Raps fan in LA on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

LETS GO BABY GOOD GAME TONIGHT.....BARGBUST WHERE U AT BRO WHERE U AT U SEE IL MAGO DO U???? what can u say about him he's got ice in his veins andddddd his defense in late game situations is also pretty good

by syMMetry on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

BargsBust is right here bro...
LOL. Bargnani is pretty good although he plays on a POO POO team.

by BargsBust on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

'Bargnani is pretty good although he plays on a POO POO team.'

Sadly, lol, I do have to agree with that...altough it's hard to admit because I really wanted them to excel this year...

by syMMetry on Feb 24, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

the raptors kind of played good but we lose 120 scores

by dorothy on Mar 21, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

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