3 In the Key – Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. Minnesota

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST in 3 in the Key

Does this really help the Raptors tonight?

In 1997, the San Antonio Spurs drafted Tim Duncan out of Wake Forest.

We all know about the championship rings, but as we get older, it may be important to remember that the Spurs were not a bad team up until that point. David Robinson was not a bad player by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, if injuries had not hampered the Spurs throughout the previous year, they would have been one of the top teams in the league.

More than 10 years later, the Raptors find themselves in a similar position.

Franchise and I talked about it with each other earlier in the year, but I speculated to myself that if the Raptors did really bad this year, drafted high, sold off some assets for other ones, the team could be re-made quickly and with a substantial improvement in talent. It would be a plan that would require a bit of luck and perhaps most importantly, cost the faith of many fans who had bought into the team's message this year.

However, as a die hard fan, as long as the long term health of the franchise is never in question, I only ask that the team has a steady hand in direction.

Which brings me to Bryan Colangelo.

Three years ago, Colangelo managed to remake the team within a matter of months with some aggressive moves that largely panned out. With a young team with maturing draft picks, Colangelo cut lose the dead weight aggressively and went to scout and recruit the best players in the Euroleague. Some, like me, believed that the team was destined to be the best for years to come and if it wasn't for some questionable long term personnel decisions and a freak leg accident, the Raptors would probably still be one of the toughest teams to face in the NBA.

So here comes the question.

Having said all of this, and looking at the current situation the team finds itself in, do I want the Raptors to win this game tonight against Minny?

To be honest, I'm not sure anymore.

After all, to get a good pick in this draft means losing lots of games between now and the end of the season. If Bosh is "shut down" and Jose is "recuperating" I would hope that the Raptors would use this time to continue the development of Bargnani and Ukic as well as continue to try and jump start Kapono's engine. So if you're hoping the Raptors win, we'll have to see:

1) Standing Shots -

The Raptors, as bad of a jump shooting team they displayed last game, are still going to have to rely on shots. My friend and I were away on a long trip to Gatineau this past weekend, so we had a long time to discuss basketball-related topics. One of the big ones was that we kept wondering why Jason Kapono's shooting percentage continues to be so bad. However, just by taking a casual glance, Jason's been taking a lot of running jumpers or shots off of movement rather than spotting up for a three. In fact, Anthony Parker is also notoriously taking lots of shots off the bounce instead of camping out in the corner like he used to. Part of the reason is that the Raptors don't have Bosh running isolation plays on one side of the court anymore, but another huge reason is that the Raptors don't run enough plays to maximize their shooters and their preferences. If the Raptors hope to score more than 100 points with their current team, they'll have to run more picks that lead to passes around the arc to a shooter in the corner.

2) Make Jermaine O'Neal and Bargnani Co-exist -

Is it just me, or has Bargnani's game completely disappeared now that O'Neal is back in the regular rotation?

There's no way I can make excuses for Andrea's change from go-to guy to offensive black hole, but the Raptors have to find a way to get both their centers going. Part of the reason why Bargnani is having a little trouble is because he's not driving as much with O'Neal in the paint. Similarly, Bargnani has difficulties reacting to Jermaine O'Neal's offensive decisions so their timing is off on when one, or the other, or both, should drop down to the post for rebounding position. If Chris Bosh continues to stay out of this game, the Raptors should try and implement a bit more Jake Voskuhl into their schemes to balance out the minutes and allow both centers to have their time being the central focus of the Raptors offense.

3) Play Your Own Game -

As many of you heard yesterday, the Timberwolves will be without Al Jefferson for the rest of the season. They had won 10 of 12 right after Kevin McHale took over coaching duties but suddenly have lost six of their last seven. Even without CB4 you'd expect Toronto to just run right over the Wolves, but in the end, the Raptors have to find it within themselves to beat the worst teams in the NBA. If they can't the result may be very similar to Saturday night's loss to Memphis.

It's not a matter of match-ups or coaching decisions that make the Rapts play down to their opponent's level. It's merely up to the hearts and minds of the players on the court. So while Jefferson is out with a torn ACL, I'm not even counting on that to really impact the game. Sure, the Raptors need to attack the Minnesota interior, but that would have been the case regardless if Jefferson was playing or not.

Which is why the Raptors simply have to play their own game.

The only way to win though, is the keep that tension up. To believe that no lead is safe, that no win is too easy, and that no play is too small to ignore would go a long way towards helping the Raptors climb out of their hole.

Often, we've seen the Raptors seemingly believe that their work is done after they get up by 10 points after the first quarter, or make a come back to get within a possession in the final two minutes, only to let off the gas pedal and see their hard work amount to nothing. To beat teams, the Raptors have to break this habit first and foremost if they hope to grab that final playoff spot.

However, I'm not one to worry too much about the losing.

After all, each loss is simply another step closer to getting a higher draft pick.

Vicious D

PS - This week's NBA blogosphere MVP and Rookie rankings are up at Canis Hoopus.

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No Redd
No Paul
No Rudy
No Jefferson
Like that's going to make a difference !!!

by d279 on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

I played soccer for a few years, alternating at LB and RB and part of a 3-man defence (one shy of the standard 4-man).

In sixty games I never scored a goal, and never took any shots.

Every game was about communication, and protecting the GK with the other fullbacks and the defensive midfielder who would be our only regular reinforcement - should it be callled for.

Sometimes we were scored against, even multiple times - and lost and tied a ton of games - until our strikers got it going.

Losing didnt matter, a better team tends to do that to you every time... however, breakdowns in the defensive effort made every difference in the world...

After two years of play we were avarging less than 0.500 goals against per game.

For three D-men that is more than pretty decent...

To the people on D, we never really knew if we won.

We were too busy making sure the other bunch of bastards never got the ball close to our GK - or scored due a leaky faucet in the defence...

That's why I signed up and continued to play - some to think of it, playing every game effectivley was better than any 'victory' celebration or feelings associated with it...

I just dont understand why 5-men on the floor in Basketball can get so far away from this ethos... guys like Duncan and the Spurs seem to have this mastered...

Sorry if I got off topic - but everytime someone mentions the Spurs and Tim Duncan - I can't help thinking this stuff...

by JENGE on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Here's the thing, without a much better idea of who we might get a shot at, it makes no sense to me to start cheering for a higher pick.

Do we want Harden? Griffin? Rubio? (is Rubio even going to be in this draft?).

Its all too familiar a feeling as when we came out of the lottery with the 1st overall pick in a weak draft year. Hooray for us, we get to pick the best of a weak bunch.

Frankly, I'd rather we just kick somebody's ass.

by Bedhead on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Vicious, what you laid out is the plan we're currently on. Its probably plan C from the very beginning for any team that lacks the depth to get through injuries.

However, there is a key difference between the Wizards, Pacers, and even Bobcats when compared to the Raptors. They actually have end of the bench youth that actually benefits from the increased game time. Our case is more complicated. I don't think Jawai is ready to play, I think he's a productive summer away from getting even garbage time, since he played in a low-calibre league overseas. Ukic has no shot, so playing him too much runs the risk of throwing away winnable games and lead to resentment from his teammates. Tons of live game action doesn't make a person's shot get better, especially with the lack of practice time in the second half of an NBA season. Locking yourself in the gym over the summer does that.

Hump's injury couldn't come at a worse time. He was poised to get some serious run if JO was traded. Would have been a prime chance to evaluate him further, and decide whether he deserves a higher or lower spot in the rotation next year.

Jenge, I think your story relates to how important it is to keep a unit together long enough for them to gel, and not look like a bunch of strangers out on the court. The catch-22 is that when your team is awful, the only objective is to move pieces around to increase the talent level. The Spurs were fortunate to establish their core fairly early on. After that each offseason was a case of finding the right role players to complement the foundation in place. It helps give a direction and a focus to a team's offseason. The Magic are in a similar position now to those early Spurs teams. The shift is visible in choosing (supposed) NBA readiness over potential when drafting Reddick and Courtney Lee.

by yardly on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Maybe we can sign Chris Brown?

Sounds like he would hit some people driving to the lane..add some toughness..lol

by Blanco on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

I think you should always draft readiness over potential, especially in today's NBA with the salary cap and luxury tax. The window of opportunity is smaller, the grace period to see a prospect reach potential is much tighter, and I'm not sure how strong today's team player development programs are as compared to previous generations, especially when the players come in younger with fewer developed skills in the first place. Also any player conceived to be more NBA ready stands a better chance of contributing to fostering an environment that is more attractive to other talent, and it translates to a better team faster. This is most applicable to first round selections, where the financial commitments are mandatory. Selecting projects can always wait for the second round.

by Interloper on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Great point Jenge, when players don't know their roles, chaos can follow as you get guys interfering with each other and trying to do too much. Like you said, if guys are just concentrating on certain key elements of the game, then the collective effort of all of those players produces a successful game plan.

The rappies don't seem to understand this and that's why you get Moon taking early 3's in the shot clock, Hump trying to go one-on-one, and even Bosh not attacking the rim when Toronto is in the bonus.

The question is, does that fall on coaching or the players themselves? (Or both I guess.)

by lurker on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

BLANCO - let's sign moon and others up for the chris brown school of aggression!

What an idiot though, his career is done. Even a-rod looks like less of a disgrace.

by fromlongrange on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Bold prediction - Raps win tonight, lose the next two, but then close out the schedule in February by winning 3 of their final four.

That of course will be enough to keep them within striking distance of 8th, hurt their chances at a top 5 pick, and generally annoy all of us Raptors' fanatics.

by Franchise on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Vicious, excellent point on the shooting woes of Kopono and Parker. The NBA is full of guys that are unconscious with spot up shots but their shooting percentage off the dribble is terrible. The Raptors, as a team, have had atrocious ball movement all year and they've been beaten repeatedly, by supposedly inferior teams, that have whipped the ball around like it's a hot potato. I thought that the Raps were so slow to move into their offensive sequences because they had to learn Triano's offense on the fly but instead of becoming more fluid, if anything, the players look more confused and stagnant than ever. I also think that Calderon is partly to blame as he often ignores or is slow to pass the ball to open wings. He'll go into the Mike James mode from time to time, which just kills player and ball movement. And if the Raps don't win another game this year, I'll grimace with each defeat but deep down inside I'll be smiling as I look forward to the draft and next year.

by melon on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

It's funny, but looking back now, the worst thing that happened to this team was the success it enjoyed a few years ago when they won 47 games. It seemed like a great leap forward, but really stunted their growth. It maked a clear coaching deficiency with Mitchell and it set expectations too high for this team from that point on; We were talking about making it past the 2nd round the year after (otherwise known as last year) when this team should have still been rebuilding and adding pieces. All of a sudden BC has a team that appears to be on the cusp, when in fact it surprised a some of the teams it played and generally overachieved. What we've ended up with may be a byproduct of that fluke season.

On another point, Vicious, I don't think your Spurs analogy of a year ago is very apt for only one reason: There is NO Tim Duncan in this draft. There isn't even an OJ Mayo really.

This team is bad at the wrong time; we may end up with another #1 pick, and may again also end up with a Bargnani who, at times, will make us think he's a future star and at other times make us feel like he's a bust. That's probably what we're gonna get with a top pick in this draft.

Oh and please, no one mention that kid Griffin; he plays the same position as Bosh. So unless we're packaging Bosh in a deal to land him (which would be bloody stoooopid), don't even bring up his name.

Rob

P.S-Chris Brown is done like dinnah. DOwn here in La La Land there was a chase on t.v that I missed (goddamn law school and all this reading) where the stations were insinuating it was him; pretty funny and outlandish, but that's the news down here.

by 2nd Raps fan in LA on Feb 10, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions