3 In The Key - Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. Miami
The Raps have left the grey and cold behind and are now in South Beach preparing for tonight's match-up against the Miami Heat.
Can the Raps make it two in a row or will they fall back into their old ways...
So being a fan of the Toronto Raptors is now like being in a bad relationship. Things on the most part are pretty bad, but there are moments when it all seems worth while. It's the few good moments that make you stick around longer, in hopes that at some point the good moments will suddenly be more frequent than the bad.
Well one of those good moments was Sunday against the Rockets.
After a pretty low week, the Raps looked like a completely different team and suddenly there's reason to be optimistic once again. This team can play D, can get into people's mugs and can win basketball games.
It's the "can" that gives you hope that this team can start turning things around and play up to their potential.
Of course on a couple of occassions thus far the Raps have, given us fans hope that things will get better. Remember the win at New Orleans, and the blow-out win in Chicago? Both of those games gave fans reasons to be optimistic. Inevitabely however, like the relationship described above, things quickly went sour again.
I am left wondering how things will be any different this time around yet I will stick around to find out...ya know...just in case this time things are different. I am pretty sure things will not be different however, and here's why.
Of the team's 11 wins, only 2 have come against opponents with a winning record, and this includes the Rockets victory.
2.
Just think about that for a second. It's almost mind boggling. The winning percentage of the teams the Raptors have beaten this season is just .427. If you take out the win against Cleveland on opening night it drops substantially to .396. These numbers really paint a somber picture. It's also evidence as to why it's highly unlikely that this team turns things around. I want things to turn around, I will stay around to find out, but in the end I am likely to be disappointed....but of course that's the mantra of a bad relationship, right?
The next opponent for the Raps is a team with a .500 record - the Miami Heat.
The Raptors and Heat matched-up earlier this season and the Raps came away with a 120-113 win. If you recall that game was a bit of a head scratcher where the bench guys helped the Raps build a substantial lead but in the second half Triano shortened the bench which allowed the Heat to get back into it.
As Vicious D discussed in yesterday's recap, it's time Triano just started using the guys who will get it done and forget salaries, egos and everything else. If that means heavy minutes for the starters so be it. If it means heavy minutes for the bench then let it be so. At the end of the day everyone in professional sports is evaluated on winning, so why should this situation be any different? Triano needs to ride the guys who can get it done.
In order to get it done, the Raps will need to focus on these three areas:
1. Get on 'Em Early: A quick start would go a long way to securing the W tonight. The Heat are reeling having gone 2-4 in their last 6 and suffering a humiliating defeat at home against the Grizzlies on Sunday. If the Raps can come out early and set the tone it will plant a seed out doubt into the minds of the Heat players. There is no worse thing for a player to think than "oh-oh, here we go again". On the flip side the Raps can't get into a hole for the very same reason. We all know what happens when this team loses focus and I am sure the Heat would be happy to ring-up 120 on its opponent to end their slide.
2. Stop the Supporting Cast: It's not just all Wade all the time in Miami. Mario Chalmers absolutely lit up the Raps in the last game with 30 points and 5 three pointers and slowly Michael Beasley is rounding into form. This Toronto squad really needs to focus in on keeping the supporting cast in check. If Chalmers, James Jones and Daquan Cook get countless open looks they can hurt you. Wade will get his, it's a matter of how many everyone else gets and how difficult it is to get them.
3. Work From The Inside Out: One thing I have noticed with this Raptors team is that it's feast or famine when it comes to outside jumpers, in particular the three ball. When one guy heats up everyone else seems to join the frey but when a few shots don't fall it's like the team goes colder than Edmonton this past weekend. It's really tough to play winning basketball when relying on the outside shot. The Raps need to start their offense from the blocks and establish Bosh and Bargnani. If the Raps can establish their bigs the open outside shots will come. I would much rather see Andrea schooling Jermaine O'Neal with some up and unders than watch him hoist three's and float around the arc.
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Starting to hate stats...
Part of the reason I am less a baseball fan now is because of how stats took over for every single facet of the game. It bugs me a little that this seems to be starting to happen in hoops too. Can’t we just play the games anymore and get a feel for the flow, and see what effect players are having on the court without having it quantified through a stat – most of which are flwed in sime way. Problem with limitless stats, is that there is always one to back your opinion. So to extend your bad relationship metaphor, if you want to nag and b*tch incessently about how bad the raps are you can find the stats to prove it.
Everyone knew that this would be a tough start. New faces and tough sched had most people predicting terrible things anyways – yet still we are acting awe struck when we see that we are below .500. If we look back at predictions, I dare say the Raps are doing better than what most predicted for them. We have many new players, and as illustrated recently, we are still looking for the best rotations. Also we were handed a very tough sched. I’m not going to complain that we have beating the poor teams – we have to just to make it through this tough part of our schedule.
Who knows, maybe stats can prove this too. Out of curiosity, what is the winning percentage of the teams that we have lost to? Or what is the winning percentage of all the teams we have played so far in comparison to other teams? Might not support your bad relationship motif but might give Raps fans a more balanced perspective.
(Or if you prefer, the team we all choose to support is shite and we’re all stupid for following them)
Walker McKenna
by Robert Archibald on Dec 15, 2009 6:39 AM EST reply actions
Stats
RA -
I totally agree on stats, I don’t value them as much as others but I don’t think you can hide from the fact that the Raps, more than a quarter of the way through the season, have beaten no-one of significance until Sunday.
The winning percentage of the teams the Raps have lost to is .607. A fairly high percentage…agreed. That doesn’t change the fact that if this team expects to make the playoffs (a far less lofty goal than many anticipated) it has to beat teams over .500. If it can’t do that it can’t be .500.
I have to ask, at what point do the excuses run dry? I get that the schedule has been tough, ew guys etc. but there comes a point where an excuse becomes a crutch. These guys have been playing together since training camp, are (historically) bad on defense and seem to lack any sense of committment. That’s what I see. In this case I think the stats bear it out.
I do hope they turn it around and me following teams that are bad is nothing new. Sunday’s generally entail be watching the Raps lose and then seeing the Rams get HAMMERED. Unfortunately I don’t have a white flag…and even if I did I won’t be waiving it!
Dave "Howland" Randell
Co-Creator of RaptorsHQ.com
by RaptorsHQ - Howland on Dec 15, 2009 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
Gluttons for punishment
I feel your pain with the Rams Howland, try being a football (soccer) fan in Scotland but not supporting Celtic or Rangers…
I do think that the Raps are doing fine and we all just need to take a longer term view of the season. We knew the first 20 games would be tough, everyone called it. I think because we called it before the season even started, it shouldn’t even be considered making excuses – just the reason why things have started slow. We aren’t trying to explain something we didn’t expect, again, we knew the first 20 games would be tough.
Now since the first 20 games we are 4-2. We are starting to gel a little more and hopefully Jay is finding rotations that will work (one game doesn’t prove anything). I mentioned a while back, that despite preaching defence Jay has really only rewarded offensive players with PT. If he really wants to show that defence is important, I think JJ has to stay on as the starter. Jose is the only real starter that has a sub that is considerably better than them on D. Bargs and DD both need PT to improve and appear to be improving. Bosh and Turk are kinda untouchable starters anyways. I think it will be a big test for Triano to see how he deals with the PG spot once Jose gets back. When Jose was taking TJ’s job, he endeared himslef to Raptornation by saying and doing all the right things. I hope he will continue to say and do all the right things once it is he who is looking at losing a starting spot.
As for the rest of the bench, I do think Sonny deserves a longer look. Wright is just awful, and I don’t want to see any more Jack/Jose together on the floor. Really the only other real contender is Bellinelli. In fairness Belli might be the better player, but we already have plenty of what he brings. We have almost no athleticism of defence on the wings, which are things that Weems can bring. I hope Marco can get some burn at back up PG while Jose is down, he shined in that role last year with GS. But once Jose gets back, I don’t like what happens to the defence if you bring Jose and Belli of the bench at the same time. Jose and Sonny on the other hand…
Walker McKenna
by Robert Archibald on Dec 15, 2009 9:49 AM EST reply actions
Some good observations as usual Mr. Archibald.
I’m a stats nut but I won’t ever say they’re the be-all and end all. To me, outside of Howland’s point about the team’s record against winning clubs, I just haven’t seen nearly enough to suggest they will get to another tier by season’s end…
…and this is coming from someone who predicted an EXTREMELY rough start.
The biggest stat to me that speaks volumes about the team’s troubles is the fact that they’ve lost nine games already by 13 or more points.
I expected losses early on.
But I expected the Sam Mitchell type from the Mike James era; close-fought battles that didn’t result in W’s because of many of the factors you pointed out; from new players to injuries to whatever.
However that’s rarely been the case so far.
Far too many blowouts and lackadaisical performances.
The win on Sunday though looked to be a huge step in the right direction, and hopefully we see that continue. Getting to .500 by Jan 1 would be huge and would put the team back on the pace I originally predicted.
But I’m in a bit of a “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode for now…
by RaptorsHQ - Franchise on Dec 15, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
never the less
a couple of wins and they would be already around .500 before the end of the year which is quite better than what you Howland had forecast. I guess your frustration is proportional to the disappointment deriving from the knowledge they could be even better than they are now. I am still convinced that some of the struggle have to do with balancing touches on the O (which is part of the gelling and also part of the coaching staff learning how to get the best out of this group) which will bring more energy and commitment on D. We have seen the positive effect this had on Hedo, let’s try to recuperate Andrea also; At the moment he is a spot up shooter (who does not get plays meant to open him for a shot) which means the Raptors are wasting half of his potential. Please, step back for a moment and, irrespective of his 16/7 averages, tell me if he really reminds you of the 2009 last season version of himself.
Robert
I COMPLETELY agree, I hate the way stats are overly used in baskeball today. If you think abt it, you can find stats to show a team or player is bad or good, depending on which stats u look at.
Stats may not be foolproof...
… but when a guy like Dave Berri (Wages of Wins) is nailing the exact win total for last year’s Raptors squad or predicting this year’s squad as a 30-something-win outfit, it’s hard to ignore.
Also hard to ignore are those advanced metrics that showed Hedo Turkoglu to be nothing more than a below average player who had the good fortune of playing on a successful Magic squad and hitting some big shots on TV. Nothing he has done so far has proven otherwise. Just a horrible free agent signing at that dollar amount/length of contract.
I think a lot of these same analysts pegged the Raptors as being terrible defensively this season. Maybe not historically bad — like they’ve played so far — but bad nonetheless since they employ guys like Bargnani and Calderon.
by RaptorsHQ - Defensive Stance on Dec 15, 2009 4:14 PM EST reply actions

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