The Lure of Potential
by Adam Francis on Oct 20, 2009 8:42 AM EDT
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Perception of course is not always reality and Franchise ponders about the true potential of this year's version of the Toronto Raptors...
As many readers know, one of my favourite sports writers is none other than the Globe's Michael Grange.
Grange always gives it straight via his blog, From Deep, and often, makes me think about something I hadn't thought of before, especially in regards to the Toronto Raptors, or puts a new spin on it.
A great example of the latter?
Yesterday afternoon's post discussing his take on the Dinos with only one pre-season game remaining.
In it, Grange astutely points out that:
Pre-season is pre-season, but a glance at the league standings more-or-less corresponds with the general expectations of what the standings will look like when the ball goes up for real: In either conference there are no projected top-four seeds that are simply stinking it up. In the East Cleveland is 3-3, but they have Shaq on their team – just guessing he’s not going too hard just yet – and have had a serious flu bug to deal with. But Orlando and Boston? A combined 10-1. Out West the Lakers, Mavericks, Jazz and Spurs are a combined 15-6. Denver is 2-3 but had a trip to China to cope with. The bottom third of the standings in each conference look about right, with clubs like Minnesota, Sacramento, Memphis, Jersey and Toronto all struggling. The Raptors better hope they’re the exception.
The argument has always been that pre-season is just that, pre-season, however it's hard not to agree with Mike's logic here. In fact it was after witnessing Toronto's .500ish pre-season play last year that I revised my earlier expectations in terms of wins and downgraded my estimate. No, I didn't think that pre-season was an exact case of "what you've been seeing is what you're going to get," but there were certain things that stood out for me as likely causes for concern; from the back-up point guard spot to wing play.
However this year I'm not going quite that same route.
Last year the team was trying to change styles of play by incorporating Jermaine O'Neal into the mix, but there wasn't the same plethora of new player and chemistry issues to deal with. I also still firmly believe that this current squad boasts superior talent in comparison to last year's team, and that eventually (read December), we'll see a team with some true promise. And as discussed yesterday, that promise may not be realized for a year, but in any event, I expect to see improvements over last season.
Recently however, it doesn't seem that everyone else agrees.
Chad Ford twittered yesterday that he expected the Suns and Raptors to both miss the playoffs, and various other "experts" are placing the "overrated" label on this current version of the Dinos.
Bryan Colangelo just weeks ago was being viewed once more as the Legomaster for being able to turn Duplo blocks into those cool pieces from the Lego Space sets...
...so to speak.
But now after x number of pre-season games, you can already hear the naysayers starting up the bandwagon.
So here's where Grange really comes in.
After reading his post yesterday I got thinking about the current make-up of this team; is this team in fact overrated? Do the pieces brought in this off-season by BC simply look better than they are because they are "new" or "different?" After seeing Joey Graham frustrate you with his potential for three plus seasons, isn't it easier to be swayed by a Marco Belinelli or an Amir Johnson; players that have shown glimpses of promise with other teams, but have never got the opportunity to really show what they can do?
I think so, and I think that's a major point we all need to be wary of prior to the season's tip-off.
It's always easy to fall in love with potential - that's why players like Gerald Green and Saer Sene get drafted each year. And sometimes there's a good reason a player hasn't gotten the opportunity to "live up" to his potential.
It's because it isn't there.
Take Amir Johnson.
Even I was extremely excited about having him on this team this season and wondered if in the end, he might be challenging Reggie Evans for key back-up minutes at the 4. However Sunday's game against Boston made me realize why in all likelyhood, this isn't going to happen. He's just not great at anything other than blocking shots and scoring off of put-back dunks. Several times he was given post-up opportunities only to show about as many polished moves on the blocks as Fergie. (In fact she probably has more.) It wasn't pretty.
That's not to say that Johnson and the various other new members of the Raptors' bench aren't upgrades over last season, they are...
...but I want to emphasize that it's all relative.
Last year the team was basically relying on fringe NBA players to back-up the starters.
This year there's definitely an improvement in talent, but let's not confuse this group with the Lakers 6 through 12. Luke Walton would be a sixth man candidate for the Raps, not a 9th or 10th guy like he is with LA.
Therefore I think the truth regarding Toronto's potential this year falls somewhere between the 50 win plateau that many were throwing around prior to the season, and Grange's comparison of the pre-season standings to that of the eventual regular season. When the Raptors figure things out offensively, I think they'll be alright.
I hope so in any event.
Vegas has the Raps pegged for 41.5 wins, and yesterday, I bet on the over.
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I'll take that bet
like You said Yourself it may take until December to get things sorted out. That is half the season. There are many good athletes on the Raptors but that does not mean they can play basketball. Last few games We witnessed poor shooting over the head blind passes over the head blind shots lots of stolen passes, passes to nowhere. It concerned Me alot.
My feeling is still 35-38 just making 8th or just outside.
Hope I am really out to lunch on my guage of the teams talent.
December is half the season? Half?
The regular season starts at the end of October. It ends in mid-April. Do the math.
That would be “by January” not by December. And they’re not going to lose every single game.
Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com Twitter @RapHQVicious
by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Oct 20, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
count em
Wed 28 vs Cleveland 7:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Fri 30 @ Memphis 8:00pm TSN2 FAN590 Radio
November Opponent Time Local TV Nat TV Radio
Sun 01 vs Orlando 1:00pm CBC FAN590 Radio
Wed 04 vs Detroit 7:00pm TSN2 FAN590 Radio
Fri 06 @ New Orleans 8:00pm TSN FAN590 Radio
Sat 07 @ Dallas 8:30pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Mon 09 @ San Antonio 8:30pm RTV FAN590 Radio
Wed 11 vs Chicago 7:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Fri 13 @ LA Clippers 10:30pm TSN2 FAN590 Radio
Sun 15 @ Phoenix 8:00pm TSN2 FAN590 Radio
Tue 17 @ Denver 9:00pm TSN FAN590 Radio
Wed 18 @ Utah 9:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Fri 20 vs Miami 7:00pm TSN2 FAN590 Radio
Sun 22 vs Orlando 12:30pm CBC FAN590 Radio
Tue 24 vs Indiana 7:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Wed 25 @ Charlotte 7:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Fri 27 @ Boston 7:30pm TSN FAN590 Radio
Sun 29 vs Phoenix 1:00pm CBC FAN590 Radio
December Opponent Time Local TV Nat TV Radio
Tue 01 vs Washington 7:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Wed 02 @ Atlanta 7:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Fri 04 @ Washington 7:00pm TSN FAN590 Radio
Sat 05 @ Chicago 8:00pm TSN FAN590 Radio
Tue 08 vs Minnesota 7:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Wed 09 @ Milwaukee 8:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Fri 11 vs Atlanta 7:00pm TSN2 FAN590 Radio
Sun 13 vs Houston 12:30pm CBC FAN590 Radio
Tue 15 @ Miami 7:30pm TSN FAN590 Radio
Wed 16 @ Orlando 7:00pm SCORE FAN590 Radio
Fri 18 vs New Jersey 7:00pm TSN2 FAN590 Radio
Sun 20 vs New Orleans 12:30pm CBC FAN590 Radio
Wed 23 @ Detroit 7:30pm TSN2 FAN590 Radio
Sun 27 vs Detroit 1:00pm CBC FAN590 Radio
Wed 30 vs Charlotte
I never said they would lose them all but they could be well under 500
were splitting hairs here
and I stand by my post should of said end of Dec for those who like to split hairs
Franchise said it’ll take until December. I don’t think he was implying by the end of December, and to me, it’s not splitting hairs. You wanted to make a point that it’s almost 1/2 the schedule, when Franchise was just making the point that we’ll see a different team after a month of real play just like in 2006-2007.
Kinnon "Vicious D" Yee
Author - RaptorsHQ.com Twitter @RapHQVicious
by Raptors HQ - Vicious D on Oct 20, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Franchise also said the potential of the team may not be realized for another year
I am on board with that I pick under
I think you are missing the point though
Ultimately all you have to do is look at the schedule in November to see that this team could be in a deep hole even by December.
Wed 28 vs Cleveland – L
Fri 30 @ Memphis – W
Sun 01 vs Orlando – L
Wed 04 vs Detroit – Who Knows
Fri 06 @ New Orleans – L
Sat 07 @ Dallas – L
Mon 09 @ San Antonio – L
Wed 11 vs Chicago – WK
Fri 13 @ LA Clippers – W
Sun 15 @ Phoenix – L
Tue 17 @ Denver – L
Wed 18 @ Utah – L
Fri 20 vs Miami – L
Sun 22 vs Orlando – L
Tue 24 vs Indiana – W
Wed 25 @ Charlotte – W
Fri 27 @ Boston – L
Sun 29 vs Phoenix – L
That is 4 Wins – 12 losses and 2 could go either ways based on likely results from what we have seen so far. Yes they could win some of the games I projected them to lose but they could also lose some of the games I projected wins for. realistically they could be as bad as 4-14 by December 1 which is a huge hole to climb out of. They may get better in December but it will be truly hard to gauge how good the team is as their schedule softens up significantly.
Tue 01 vs Washington – W
Wed 02 @ Atlanta – L
Fri 04 @ Washington – L
Sat 05 @ Chicago – W
Tue 08 vs Minnesota – W
Wed 09 @ Milwaukee – W
Fri 11 vs Atlanta – L
Sun 13 vs Houston – L (Based on their Preseason game)
Tue 15 @ Miami – L
Wed 16 @ Orlando – L
Fri 18 vs New Jersey – W
Sun 20 vs New Orleans – W
Wed 23 @ Detroit – WK
Sun 27 vs Detroit – WK
Wed 30 vs Charlotte – W
Again I am basing it on whether I consider the teams better or worse than the Raps. 7 wins – 6 losses and 2 could go either ways. So their overall record could be 13 – 20 by the end of December. Which is just under half a season. We could go through the entire schedule like this but it is hard to predict too far in the future.
I think the point that Davl was trying to make here is that this team is not projecting to a good record as the entire league is different then it was 3 years ago when BC first came here. The east was horrible that year and it allow the Raptors to have a weak start while they got their act together and they were able to bounce back. This year just about everyone is a little bit better and the can ill afford to start off slowly like they have in the past. This team could be a 50 win team but I would take the under on the 41.5 as well.
Thankyou McGateway
my projections was 13-20 as well by the END OF DECEMBER. I just don’t see this team making any 10 and 0 runs to make up for a weak start.
I feel like this team has a decent chance of being better than these:
NO, Phoenix, Denver, Utah, Miami, Washington, Atlanta, Houston
Really?
Lets pretend that none of these teams will have injuries for a second. What it comes down to is this, is there anyone on the Raptors who is better than anyone on those teams?
Houston – ok this is a given the Raptors should be better than Houston but lets get real for a moment. Houston’s coaching is by far and away superior to Triano at this stage. Talent helps but the talentless Rockets took the Lakers to 7 games, something that Orlando (who are infinitely better talent wise) couldn’t come close to.
NO – Chris Paul
Phoenix – Maybe Bosh vs Stoudemire. The problem is the Raptors have never been able to keep up with the Suns offense in the Steve Nash era. Do you really see that changing anytime soon?
Denver – Carmelo Anthony, Mr Big Shot
Utah – Deron Williams. Bosh is better but Williams can be a killer.
Miami – Wade can win games all by himself.
Atlanta – Again Bosh is better than anyone on their roster but their starters would all be starters on the Raptors over what we currently have(outside of Bosh). PERIOD.
Washington – Gilbert Arenas.
Remember all of those teams have one thing in common except for Houston. All of them have dominant Guards or Guards who can dominate games (Atl Bibby and Johnson will Rape the Raptors as they are currently constructed, they did not end up as the 4th seed by accident last year).
potential
I think the buzz word is going to have to be PATIENCE…I’m worried that out of the blocks we are going to be in tight for wins,and the last thing I want to see is heads hanging down and pouting!!!!
If we can at least hang with the best of the best,things will improve with time.
One thing that I did notice both games against Boston,we hung around ,all things being equal with our gased starters…but we got manhandled !!! the only testoserone I saw came from Bargs (of all people)…hopefully Wright and Evans will rub off on the rest of the team…and Turk and Bosh take a more physical leadership role.JJ will hold his own,as well as Rasho.
I was disapointed with Amir,crapping his pants playing against RW…and I’m also tired of the rook having star envy…what’s he going to do when he plays Koby,shit himself..sorry a little rough on the kid,he has done everything that the coaching staff has asked from him.I would like to see him come off the bench with Weems…that would be amount for a few highlights.
I noticed the “fatigue factor” too, something that doesn’t bode well for the start of the season considering it’s about a week away…
by Adam Francis on Oct 20, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Pre-season vs Real Season
A couple of close to home examples.
Maple Leafs 6-2 Pre vs 0-7 real start, why ??
Raptors Atlantic Champs 7-1 Pre vs 2-8 real start, why ??
Pre Season vs real season is not necesarily a given indication.
JT has put no effort into winning, only evaluating, and getting late
starters gradually into shape, playing 2nd/3rd liners for whole 4th qtrs.
They have not used their regular offensive game that will be a feature
of the real season utilising the P&R strengths of CB, Jose, & the Turk.
It is definately a wait and see, and possibly a slow start, taking into consideration the schedule and the competition in November.
The long preseason
I think that we should employ a wait-and-see attitude when it comes to assessing their performance thus far. With 9 new faces trying to build chemistry is not an easy task. However, I do agree with Franchise’s critique of Amir. I think that it is a confidence factor with him and a lot of players who matchup with elite players (i.e. KG). Amir automatically wants to make an impact in the game when he is on the floor. This is not a bad philosophy on his part, but he needs to have a (pet) move that he can rely on. For example, when KG decided to sag off and allow him to travel. KG’s knowledge of the game was apparent and that is something that Amir should’ve anticipated. Amir is still young and he has a lot of potential to be an impact player off the bench. Triano managed to foster confidence in Joey Graham last season, so doing the same for players like Amir, Marco, Weems, and Douby should also be possible.
Great point, and this probably rates a blog post on the subject, but one thing we haven’t discussed is that Andrea’s confidence really took off under Triano, and so did the confidence of some other players to a lessor degree like Joey G. Hopefully we’ll see this same impact on the likes of Johnson, Weems and DeRozan as the season goes on.
by Adam Francis on Oct 20, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
ON POTENTIAL
Did you know that if we mastered Cold Fusion; we could power the entire GTA for a year with one teaspoon of Don River water! It’s 100% true!
Those are going to be some valuable spoons….
Great article and I agree completely. This team is definately better than last yr but a lot of fans are confusing that with the team being one of the better teams in the east. Talent wise we are not one of the better teams and i expect us to be trying to sneak into the playoffs as the 8th seed UNLESS the injury bug bites some of the other teams ahead of us and maybe we place 6th or 7th. I still appreciate BC’s work this summer in improving the product on the floor but my realistic expectations are to make the playoffs in 8th spot or not at all. My optamistic expectation is to win 50 games.
During the regular season games are won and lost based on the play of your top 8 or 9 players, during preseason especially with Bosh, Turk, and Wright being injured, our 6 – 15 men have been getting major minutes, so their record doesn’t necessarily reflect what this team will be able to do in the regular season. Further the Magic, Celtics, Lakers, Mavericks, Jazz and Spurs haven’t had nearly the amount of turnover in their roster or in their coaching/system that Toronto has so it stands to reason that they’d be further ahead of Raptors at this point. The Raptors still have a chance to make the playoffs if their beat the bad teams, do fairly well against the good teams, and steal the occasional game from the elite teams.
Pre-Season
The Leafs were world beaters in pre-season. Now, they are on their way to being one of the worst teams in NHL history.
The Raps will be fine. Expect 43-45 wins out of them.
If Evans and Rasho are healthy, and the Raps are going to be in the playoffs, Johnson and his expiring contract will be traded for a couple of spare parts, one of which will probably be a 3rd PG.
But, unfortunately, NOT Walton or Linas Kleiza.
I want my Lunchbox Links!
Once again. PRESEASON IS PRESEASON
Simple is that. No reason trying to think otherwise. It means nothing… Seriously this time please accept it
Cautiously optimistic
Sounds like we are no longer Pheonix of the East – experts seem to think we are Golden State.
What an off-season – the highs when BC was wheeling and dealing and now an apparent low.
Would anyone do an Amir Jojnson for D Stevenson trade. When healthy he’s a tough defender who makes his money doing the dirty work. He’d back up DD at SG which will allow Wright to back up Hedo. I still think we’re soft/weak on the wings and need some a vet that plays defence. Would you guys/gals do this 1 if it was avail?
Bored of this...
Isn’t it blatantly obvious we shouldn’t read too much into the pre-season?
-We started the preseason without our 2 best players
-We had more turnover than most teams have in 2 off seasons
-Playing the Celtics can make lots of teams look bad, we’ve played them twice
The results of these games don’t matter, how we play matters. We have done some things well, particularly Bargs looks confident and ready to contribute. We need to improve in some areas, mainly defensively, but adding Wright and Evans should help us to improve in those areas. We aren’t winning the East, but I think we look MUCH improved.
Chilax people
Walker McKenna
by Robert Archibald on Oct 20, 2009 7:49 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t think franchise is revisiting the same topics over and over archibald – just doing a good job of looking at things from another angle and tampering expectations.
Nice to hear him positive too for a change lol lol.
Love htis site, keep it up boys!
by fromlongrange on Oct 20, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
A dip in confidence?
I called 51 wins – thats how good I felt when all went down and can’t say I’m confident in that prediction. Gotta blame all I’ve read in last week or so on the net. Vegas, Hollinger, SI, ESPN, FOX all don’t see much in the group we have got. Best bit I,ve read was Scott on Raptorblog.com pointing out defensive efficiency with certain lineups on the floor. A good read and probably our biggest worry.
That being said we are not gonna know what this team can bring until the season starts. One thing for sure, will be more exciting than last season.
Them first 20 games make me queesy but if we can come out of it maybe two, three games under five hundred(realistically optimistic) than watch out for this squad. Maybe the b-ball god owe us a smile, god knows they’ve crapped on us for a while.
Big thank you to the crew at HQ – You’ve kept us informed during a busy offseason, kept the conversation going. You knew when to take a hiatus as well, and thats appreciated. Sometimes there’s just nothing to say.
That being said, I’m at work at 8 in the morning and am expecting the games recap to be there.
Franchise – don’t bring any pessimism around the boys – we need their heads on straight..
Thanks Tinmann! The great thing is, with BC at the helm, the off-season certainly doesn’t drag as much as it probably does for bloggers covering some other NBA teams!
And yeah, nothing but smiles in the locker room for me!
by Adam Francis on Oct 20, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah
I’ll take over on that bet – easy money!
first 20 games
now I may be smoking some seriously delicious crack here, but are those first 20 games really all that bad?? I think we can all agree that no one – and I do mean no one – has any good clue how we’re going to stack up against the likes of atlanta, miami, charlotte, chicago, detroit, or even new orleans.
that’s 13 games right there.
should we talk about washington? is someone going to tell me they’re going to be definitively better? what about new jersey? or memphis?
.500 ball is entirely possible. (or not)
not to mention the fact that the recent detroit and san antonio teams – you know, the winning ones – are notorious for starting their seasons off slowly. as in they lose more than they win.
chill.
btw
let’s not forget what this is all about.
I know we all like to get analytical about this to make it interesting, but we can still be just fans sometimes. and good fans expect hard work and a good show and nothing else!
so all I’m sayin’ is, let’s at least wait until this thing goes live before we start tearing it up and declaring failure.
we're talking about the pre-season...not actual games....pre-season!!
No Wright
No Hedo for some games
No Reggie
No Bosh for some games
Cleveland was only missing Shaq. Why is anyone surprised that the Raps didn’t do well in the pre-season?
I have trouble making any predictions based on pre-season games. These players are playing at 50% and drawing any conclusions based on this level of play seems premature.
agree
Couldn’t agree more with OneAndDone
You could argue that evans and wright aren’t players that are significant enough to mention when talking about key players missing during pre-season, but keep in mind we were missing bosh and hedo, our most important player and our prized free-agent signing. Definitely a sign that “its only preseason” applies for this year’s team.
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