3 In the Key - Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. Indiana

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST

Is this the future for the Raps?

If you are like most Raps fans the recent loss to the Chicago Bulls likely firmly entrenched you in one of two camps. The first camp, for these purposes "Camp A" is for the optimists. Those who feel that despite the recent losses there is much to be positive about, in particular the emergence of Andrea Bargnani, and with the return of JO and Calderon there’s a good chance this team can turn things around in the second half and grab a playoff spot.

The second camp is for the pessimists, or what I will call "Camp B". The people who feel this team is in tatters, wonders whether Bosh is counting down his days to free agency, and debating how, not when, Bryan Colangelo will start blowing things up.

What is becoming a strong divide amongst those in Camp A and Camp B is great for debate here at the HQ. If yesterday is any indication there is no consensus as to what should be done.

Of course the only "camp" that matters is the one populated by Bryan Colangelo. Which camp is the General Manager for the Toronto Raptors in? Well it depends on who you listen to. Sam Smith of Bulls.com has reported that BC is firmly entrenched in Camp B and is considering dealing Calderon, Bargnani and others for Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa and parts. On the flip side it has been reported on a number of occasions that although Colangelo is active he is not looking to "blow things up" and is definitely not willing to deal Il Mago. The rumour in Miami is JO for Marion and parts. That’s a significant transaction but it not one where the core assets of the team are moved (Bosh, Bargnani and Calderon).

At the beginning of the season when the JO trade first went down I spoke with Matt Devlin about the deal and the Raps team on paper. We were both pretty pumped. My main reason for being excited was that I firmly believed that this team would either be (A) pretty damn good, or (B) pretty freaking bad. The last thing I wanted to see this team do was flounder in mediocrity. I hate mediocrity and as someone mentioned yesterday it’s mediocrity that has made it so hard over the past long while to be a Leafs fan.

Yet here we are.

Mediocrity. Not particularly good, and not that bad, but arguably the worst place a franchise can find itself.

I believe this mediocrity has to be driving BC absolutely mad and when people feel pressure they are apt to make snap or rash decisions and do things that are not that well thought through. It’s for these reasons that over the next few weeks, up to the trade deadline, that Raps fans will truly get a full picture of what kind of basketball mind is running this franchise. The next few weeks are going to have a tremendous impact on this club and will have a direct effects on decision day for CB4 in 2010. The pressure is on now. How with BC respond? How do you want BC to respond? It all depends on what camp you find yourself in.

With a lot of big picture things to consider these days tonight’s match-up against the Pacers seems almost trivial despite the great story lines that may present themselves. Once again the Raps are up against key members from last years squad. The last time these teams met TJ Ford made no bones about the fact that he was made the scapegoat for last years failures. Will either Jose or O’Neal dress, the latter revisiting Indy the first time since the big deal? It’s an interesting match-up all around and if the Raps plan on securing a W on the road these are the three keys:

1. Contributions from the 2 and 3 spot - It’s very clear now that the Raps have one of the worst 2/3 platoons in the league no matter how you look at it. For the Pacers however, the 2/3 position is one of strength, in particular now that Mike Dunleavy Jr. has worked his way back onto the hardwood. Danny Granger has been playing out of his mind as of late and even Stephen Graham has become a fairly regular contributor. Although not a sure thing, it is a safe bet that both Bosh and Bargnani will have solid nights, but they are going to need help. As witnessed last game against the Bulls, no help means no W. Someone out of Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono and Joey Graham has to bring something to the table. If not it could be another solid performance by the big-men gone to waste. If this pattern continues it can only have a negative impact on CB4 and his state of mind.

2. Bench Contributions - I will be watching the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter very carefully during tonight’s match-up because I believe you will be able to get a good sense of which way this match-up is going to go based on bench play. Both the Raps and Pacers have weak benches that are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to cumulative plus/minus. The Raps bench is a negative 291 (for fifth worse) and the Pacers are a negative 370 (good for third worst). Whichever bench manages to bring something to the table will have a big impact on the outcome of this match-up.

You know BC is on the phone. What sort of moves he wants to make is an unknown.

3. Bait TJ Ford - It was pretty clear when Ford was in TO that he was unwilling to back down from any challenge, even if it was to the detriment of the team. The Raps need to play off that trait. No matter if it’s Calderon, Solomon or Ukic they need to attack Ford when he is on the floor. The result will be a PG who is more concerned about getting his then getting the win. The more time Ford spends dominating the ball the less time Granger and Dunleavy will have to pick this Raps team apart. The only issue is that the Raps PG will have to pick their spots and not force the issue to the point where turnovers become a big factor. It is a fine line here but if the Raps can force Ford out of the Indiana team game while staying in theirs it could make for a fun game to watch and reminisce of those times when TJ thought he was playing a friendly game of 1 on 5.

HOWLAND

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Comments

Sigh. How exactly are we "mediocre"? The Hawks are mediocre. The Pistons are mediocre. The Raptors are dreadful.

We're 16-24. To get to .500, that's 25-17 the rest of the way. Impossible? Damn straight.

Add this to the fact that we play in the vastly inferior Eastern Conference (four good teams instead of nine). We've lost to: Philly, the Nets, the Nets again, Oklahoma City, Golden State, Milwaukee and Chicago. These are all horrible teams. On top of this we have beaten one (Orlando) legitimate team the whole season.

Is this mediocrity? Hell no. Blow it up.

Put me in Camp "B" for the summer--I hope it's a sports camp. What's for lunch? Is there pizza? Are there girls at this camp?

by Aaron on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

ahh, camp A where it's always sunny and bright, bird twittering in my ears... no wait that's my pulse as moon jacks up another three, when we're down three, early in the shot clock with 2 minute to go...

well, anyway, us camp A'er feel a little vindicated after seeing the bulls handle the CAVS last night... we can only dream what a fully functioning and healthy raps team could do...

by axl on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

I agree with Aaron. Not mediocre. BAD. Yes, injuries have taken their toll...but the record doesn't lie. So, with that as the premise, do you guys think JO for Marion is the better deal, or JO for Chicago parts (not sure what works but some combo of Hughes, Nocioni, Gooden, and in my dreams, Gordon or Hinrich, though I very much doubt Captain Kirk would go anywhere)? Let's assume il Mago is now untouchable and thus trading for a past-his-prime Nash is unlikely. And, do you think it's possible to guarantee re-signing a player (Marion or Gordon) if you trade for them right before UFA? That is fairly key. If we could somehow engineer a trade for Marion and then win Ben G in free agency, a starting 5 of Jose/Ben/Marion/Bosh/Bargs does not seem bad at all.

by Omar on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Not to nitpick (but I guess I am) we also beat Houston. So does technically "horrible" rank worse than "dreadful"? Where does "superbad" and "crappulant" stand? :)

by ustation on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Not sure I like Nocioni enough to make him the centrepiece of a Chicago trade. And I would worry about Hughes further dragging the Raptors down with his attitude and chucking tendencies. The Marion deal strikes me as the best rumour around. Letting him walk in the summer gives the Raptors enough cap to offer Ben Gordon a nice deal and still have some left (Josh Childress maybe?). I just wonder if Miami doesn't get a better offer.

If I were GM, I think I'd make the Marion deal, especially if Dorrell Wright and/or Joel Anthony could be included in the deal. And I'd insist in the Heat taking Moon back - he's a homeless man's Shawn Marion. But if that weren't on the table, I'd probably keep JO, see what the draft brings and then shop him next year.

And if Bargs keeps on his tear for the rest of the year, does maybe losing Bosh in 2010 seem so bad? I think Bargs and Jawai might actually be a backup plan. My Camp A glasses make me wonder if that might not actually pan out.

by Sam on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Sam,
in your camp A (Bosh leaving) why would you not contemplate also a healthy Jo besides Bargnani? Actually a trade around Bosh could secure you top notch SF + filler. After next year 22M O'Neil can be taken for a lot less and a lineup of himself, Bargs,Top Noch SF,good SG, Calderon is not that bad at all. I believe a lack of clarity from Bosh's camp is one of the things that is holding back a "trade OJ" scenario.

by renato on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Hello, my name is RaptorsAddict and I'll be your camp counsellor this summer here at Camp B.

Sadly, I also think we currently fall into the mediocre-at-best category. I also believe that our current location is tantamount to sports purgatory.

However, I also feel that we can turn this ship around sooner than later with our core 3 of Bosh, Bargs and Jose, and that none of those 3 should be traded unless the return is outstanding (which means no Steve Nash rental).

Now, I"ve always believed that the JO aquisition was done purely on the basis of the belief that the biggest expiring contract in the Summer of Lebron would be extremely sought after. However, I think he's realizing now that A) the team has far more weaknesses that need correcting than anticipated before the season (i.e. Moon's regression, Parker's aging, Kapono's continued inconsistency,etc.) which thus makes waiting for it to reach its full value might be more difficult than expected and B) that the expiring contract might not really be as sought after as he might have initially thought it would be.

So, what do to? Ultimately, I think moving JO this season is the best idea, preferably for Shaun Marion (who would be exactly what we need this year and comes off the books) or Hughes and Nocioni or Marbury's expiring deal. None of these are great, but once again BC is dealing from a position of weakness, so my assumption is that he'll take what he can get and cut his losses. All I know is that JO has got to go.

by RaptorsAddict on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Renato, I think JO may have helped this team as much as he can. 30+ big men with serious injury issues don't interest me. And in 2 years young bigs who are obtained cheaply in free agency or the draft may be more capable defensively than JO. Here's hoping Jawai is such a guy. His potential talents seem like they might fit with Bargs' (and Bosh's) game. I also think that JO's offensive talents have turned out to be a poor match for his Raptors teammates. He is a ball stopper. That either has to change or he would be a better fit elsewhere. I'm not ragging on him and I was optimistic when the trade went down. But this team needs a shakeup in terms of talent and attitude. His defence seems to have rubbed off on Bargs and maybe he should stay around a bit longer for the effect to become permanent. But if trading him gets a Marion rental and oodles of cap space, make that trade, not a Chicago one that is only a marginal improvement in my opinion.

I might deal Bosh next year but I'm not hating on him either. Deals need to be made if they get returns, not for the sake of making deals or the placate the numerous screamers in the Raptors rather fickle fanbase.

by Sam on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Well said HOWLAND, I consider myself a "Camp A" guy and after watching the Bulls beat the Cavs a day later on a back to back maybe Chicago as an healthy club is not so bad after all and the loss to the Bulls is a little justifiable. They are getting healthy and the Raps still have 2 starters on the shelf, so our expectations going into the Chicago game may have been a bit high. I still think we have a good enough team with and addition of a decent wing at or before the trade deadline the Raps could surprise a few people in the playoffs...I truly believe we are a ligit playoff team that is going through a bad stretch with injuries, a new coach, no wing...But there is ample time to turn things around this season....Have to take care of business tonight I just hope that Jamario or who ever is covering Granger stays at home and forget about the help defence....

by RAPS4LIFE on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Does a deal of JO for AK-47 make any sense for the Jazz?

Marion would be awesome (can guard all 5 positions, doesn't demand the rock, can hit the three even though his shot mechanics are worse looking than Chris Farley's naked corpse), but AK is an even better defender and would fit seamlessly into our starting rotation.

The only problem I see is that unless the Jazz are looking to move money off the books O'Neal doesn't really fit their system unless they plan to move Okur to PF and let Boozer go to FA (but then whither Milsap?)

Anyway, its clear to me our wings are beyond terrible. Moon is a D-leaguer, Parker has lost a step or two and now should be a back-up, Kapono couldn't stay in front of his shadow, and Graham - well Joey is still Joey.

Switching topics, how awesome is it that BC's call in Bargnani is actually panning out? Not just the rediscovered confidence on offense, but the emergence of high caliber defensive play? If he can continue to put all of his tools in the same box every night he'll be unstoppable offensively (just needs a post-game), and a monster defensively. Sure Roy would have been a wicked choice, but I think we've seen his ceiling already.

But Bargs looks like he may still have a few more notches upwards left to reach.

Bring on the Roman god of war!

Last but not least, I am firmly in camp 'A' - but I might leave for Camp 'B' if the hot chicks and beer (elite SF) don't show up soon.

by Bedhead on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

I don't think we can get too upset with any current situation. We are a team that is building towards something - and will get there if BC can leverage his assets well. But we can't get too bent out of shape if these assets are not currently meshing... They are not meant to mesh, they are to be leveraged into more complementary lego pieces. I mean three of the four best players are concentrated in two positions. Even just rational resource allocation should hugely improve the team.

Obviously BC doesn't agree with your perception of feast or famine team building. He has conidence that he will be able to acquire the assets necessary without ong into the lottery for a few years.

I really don't think we need that much to turn that corner.

Ps- the hottest chicks are with Camp 'C', the Zen Camp of not getting too worked up over out comes that may not have much lasting significance. Chicks dig that stuff.

Pardon my spelling, I'm on the black berry and don't have spell check.

by TJ Caino on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Hmm . . . the Marion idea--it only works if:

a) he loves Toronto for some reason (wait for the trade until it rises above -30 degress first!) and wants to re-sign

b) Colangelo has something in mind free agent-wise for 2009-10. The only quality 2's and 3's out there are Artest, Marion, Odom, Turkoglu (has an option) and Ben Gordon. There is also a chance that guys like Linas Kleiza (who I LOVE!!!) or Ariza don't get re-upped by their current teams.

Who do people like in this group? Are they worth TJ Ford in a trade? I would lean towards no, which means unless Colangelo can pull off a miracle, this team is going to be 35-47 next year too.

In essence, we need O'Neal to come back VERY strong to convince a team who thought they'd be a championship contender but aren't right now to make a big move. (Dallas? Utah?) I have a feeling nothing is going to happen, but if it does, it's going to have to wait until Feb.19th or so.

by Aaron on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Love the camp counsellor speech. I think BC overestimated JO's on-court impact, and contractual impact as well in terms of other clubs desiring it. It now sounds like there are going to be a good number of free agents settling for smaller deals than they bargained for based on the economy so perhaps the giant "stock up" for 2010 won't be as big as predicted.

Also - great point by Bedhead. Maybe there's still a lot of skeptics out there but how about Bargs' development? If it wasn't for the team's record and JO's status, he'd proably be sending out random emails that said:

"TOLD YOU SO"

Hopefully this then carries over to his work in this upcoming draft.

Some good points about the Bulls game perhaps being viewed too lightly.

If you think about it, outside of Bosh, Calderon and Bargs, if you were to pick players off the two teams to make one squad, wouldn't you choose Rose, Deng, Gordon and Nocioni, before any of the other Raptors? And maybe even Thomas, Noah and Hinrich before Parker, Kapono, Graham etc?

by Franchise on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Maybe we can trade for Eddie Curry: http://www.nypost.com/seven/01122009/news/regionalnews/knicks_sex_scandal_shock_149861.htm

by ustation on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Aaron, I'd add Josh Childress to that list. Atlanta has his rights but I'm sure there's a way to get him since they have done well without him (so far) and won't be bending over to have him back.

by Sam on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

aaron - all those players are on teams that are winning and playing well, who's going to mess with that whne they know JO will still be available come summer. There's no doubt in my mind that if a marion for JO deal could be done, it would have been done already. Have to look at teams motivated to deal mid season...

by axl on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Ustation,

Saw that story earlier... Hilarious.

I realize you are joking...
But sorry, have to call foul here. I can't remeber if it was Franchise or Howland that handed down this law, but mentioning curry in trade deals involving the Raps was banned from this site last season! :)

As for BC and his foresight on Bargs, good on him. And good on Bargs too for finally rounding into form. However, I don't think you can blame anyone for being sceptical of Bargnani's suitablity as an NBA player after he basically played like ass for one and a half years... I for one have been completely (and pleasantly) surprised especially by his improvement on the defensive end. I'm sure BC, deep down, may be a bit surprised as well (although he'll never admit it). Unfortunately, the development of Bargani may be the only positive from this season... (Where's the camp sign-up sheet)

by MAS on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Facts: No NBA team wins a title without rebounding and defense. The Raptors are too soft. In any blockbuster trade BC will have to take a bad contract or 2. With this in mind here are 2 trades that work under the cap.

1) JO and Parker traded to the Bulls for Nocioni, Noah, Gooden, Gordon.

Chicago gets a big man with a post game and a solid 2 guard to start or come off the bench plus both are expiring contacts. Toronto gets Nocioni who for some reason they are enamored with-he's alright but not necessarily a game changer. Noah is a good hustle guy/big man with potential. Gooden adds front court depth and an expiring contract and Gordon, while highly unlikely we can keep him is a scoring machine. So if we lose him his salary comes off the books.

2)JO and Kapono to Charlotte for Gerald Wallace, Nazr Mohammed, Carrol and Morrison. Charlotte gets a big man to move Okafor to the 4 and Diaw to the 3 plus a shooter to bring off the bench not to mention huge upcoming cap relief. Toronto gets an excellent player in Wallace to plug in at the wing keeping Bargnani at the 5 due to his play over the past month. Mohammed is a decent backup big man while Carrol and Morrison have potential as shooters off the bench. We will dump Morrison as soon as his contract ends. Warning! This trade involves obtaining the horrendous contracts of Nazr and Carrol.

Gerald Wallace would be a great fit for Toronto. He addresses so many problems that we have. He is athletic, he can drive to the hoop, and he can play D. On top of that he is an exciting player and he blocks shots and rebounds exceptionally well for a small forward. For short stretches he can even play a little undersized power forward depending on the match ups.

Here is a quick list of other players that could be targeted.(I tried to rank them in the order of best fit to our needs)

Josh Howard (Is Dallas sick of his antics?)

Caron Butler (Maybe Washington will get desperate and try to trade him, they can’t trade agent 0)

Al Harrington (Missed the boat on this one)

Shawn Marion (Maybe we could pick him up cheap or maybe he will reunite with Dantoni and Amare in NY)

Travis Outlaw (If I were Portland I wouldn’t trade him but who knows with the Darius Miles Cap penalty situation)

Mickael Pietrus (Just signed with Orlando and was playing really well until he got hurt dunking on someone)

John Salmons (Missed the boat on this one as well, maybe the second time is a charm)

Shane Battier (Houston probably won’t move him as he is insurance for Ron Artest (crazy)and McGrady (lazy, and injury prone)

by Jamrock42 on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Ok, I will profess to be in Camp A...but this is not without a small amount of Camp B in me as well. Bargs flow is ridiculous now, CB4 needs to keep doin his thing but how much longer can we be sooooo horrible in the 2 / 3 position??? With our point guard (who is not a point guard) not having a legit threat nite in and nite out to go to, the double B's can't carry the rest of the boys. Moon is so digging a huge hole for himself. He can jump over everyone (except Dwight Howard) in the league yet settels for his horrible jump shot so often. AP is solid when in the flow but is ofteninvisible with his buddy Kap 1 riding shotgun. Joey has been physical and I like it. i actually think they should run with Joey for longer periods as he has shown he can mix it up, score and get to the rim. Ahhhh we' shall see. Off I go into the freezing cold...

I'm out!

Fresh 1

by Fresh 1 on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

I am a Camp-Aer -- but holding on to hope by a thread. I see it this way: The Raps have lost some very close ones, and if we did have a fully functioning team they could easily be 19-22 right now, right in the thick of it. We're in the East, everyone sucks so anything's possible you pessimists. Believe in the Craptors!

by georgioh on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

worst raptor game of the year? yes

rock bottom?

by sigg on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Rockbottom. You guys might as well write up the post game now (end of the 3rd).

Here's an observation for you....

Pacers get one of their "stars" back (Dunleavy) and they obviously improve.

Raptors get one of their "stars" back (Oneal) and they sink further down.

Nice.

by mcclarky on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Might be some "A" camp defectors after this joke. Going to watch the Local College Girls game. They only won 2 times this year but they try!

by Davl on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

oh I see.... they were hoping to coast and then turn it on in the 4th to steal the game...

At least they could have the decency to tell us that in the pre-game so that we don't watch 3 quarters of garbage.

by mcclarky on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Kap-oh-no...not again.

by mcclarky on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

I'm really surprised about Jay Triano's decision to keep Kapono and Moon on the floor in crunch time, especially since they have demonstrated a lack of basketball IQ in crunch time time after time. I know there isn't much to choose from, but even Roko and arguably Graham have shown flashed of competency and at least they have the athletic ability to defend in the crunch.

by Flying J on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

I'm shocked: Indiana tried to give us the game and Triano said "No, thanks, I'm going to use Kapono and give you the game back because you were better the first 3 quarters!". There must be some kind of secret message or Triano just lost his mind.
Message to Triano: after the first turnover in the 4th Q just take Kapono out of the game: he is a scrub and we cannot jeopardize a game by waiting for his practice style shooting to save us. Play Graham or anybody else but not Kapono when he's trying to do too much with too little.
Everything is on BC now and it doesn't look good. Everything that could have gone wrong it actually did.This is not a time of trade for talent but only for financial reasons as no team will give us any talent.

by Daniel on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Nice to see the boys show up in the 4th..
Buzz Kills:Bosh 3pt foul,
Kapopo 2 travels.
I'm done camping !!!

by d279 on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions

I have to say first that I am a camp B guy.

Second, with a tip of the hat to Tinman, I was completely wrong about Sam. I think that there are locker room issues that we just don't know about, and he was in control. Triano is an XO guy, but the team has tanked on him. I think keeping Sam as coach for the rest of the season was the better plan after all. If I was GM, I would fire myself.

Now, the criticism on this blog seems to be firmly on the players. Not really sure why. Has Triano really shown he knows what to do with Moon, et al? This guy still isnot driving, still taking three's.

The chemistry of this team really puzzles me.

by gerry on Jan 16, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions