The X-Factor Report – Jason Kapono

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT in Feature Stories

We should be seeing a lot of this shortly.

I was sitting on the Subway yesterday reading ESPN the magazine. The main focus of this issue was the NFL and their predictions. In the feature article the author gives a statistical break-down on everything from fumble recovery rates to Pythagorean projections in an attempt to predict this season’s surprise team. Based on a number of factors the "Mag" predicts, or perhaps more accurately expects, that the Houston Texans will be this season’s surprise team.

Well in my experience predictions, in particular in sports, rarely come to fruition. More often than not what one predicts and what actually happens are very different things. This is perhaps more true in sports than any other area of life. No-one predicted the Mavs to lose to the Warriors in the playoffs two years ago and no-one predicted the Giants would upset the Pats in the Superbowl. In sports you have to come to expect the unexpected.

As NBA experts (and Steven A. Smith) discuss what to expect this upcoming NBA season there will undoubtedly be some chatter about the Raptors Jason Kapono. Based on Kap-One’s performance in last season’s playoffs it’s to be expected. We all watched the series against Orlando so I won’t blather on about how great Kapono was during those five games other than to say he was one of the sole bright spots and to lay out the stats. In the regular season Kapono averaged 7.2p ppg in just under 19 minutes of action while shooting 48.8% from the floor and a blistering 48.3% from beyond the arc. In the playoffs Kapono took his offensive game to another level averaging more than twice as many points (15.6 ppg) while logging 30 plus minutes and shooting an unbelievable 58.5% from the floor and 54.2% from downtown.

These numbers tell me a couple of things. First, it seems clear to me that the Raptors depth last season, coined the team’s biggest asset, was in fact detrimental to Jason Kapono. Second, Kapono might be the biggest beneficiary to the Jermaine O’Neal trade.

For much of last season Kapono came off the bench and there were many times last season when I wondered why BC was so quick to lock this guy up to a fairly lucrative contract. As much as you can get down on AP for being inconsistent at times you never knew what to expect out of Jason night in and night out. This was even more evident when TJ Ford went down with injury and Calderon was moved to the starting line-up. In January of last season Kapono’s numbers hit a season low when he was logging most of his minutes without a true PG to feed him the rock. Not one to create his own shot Kapono struggled and shot below 40%. There was little chatter about Kapono at that point and he in many was a forgotten man.

Now with the shake-up of the roster it is blatantly obvious to me what needs to be done with Jason Kapono. He has to start. Hell to me it’s a no brainer.

Just a while back we did an interview with Matt Devlin and much of my conversation with him surrounded the acquisition of JO and the potential benefit. Much of the chatter was on the issues opposing defenses will have with two All-Star big men on the floor. Coaches will be left having to decide who, and when to double and even more importantly who to leave open. Not to dumb things down too much but won’t it be exponentially harder for teams to double CB4 and JO with Kapono on the floor as opposed to Moon? One of the biggest benefits of having this two headed monster in the paint is to make things easier on your shooters, and Kapono is the best shooter this team has. From a percentage standpoint it will almost be unfair to opposing defenses. Bosh shoots around .500 from the floor while O’Neal shoots around 47%. Kapono as detailed above shoots a similarly high percentage. Combined they will be a nightmare for opposing teams and the team should do a much better job getting out to a fast start, something that plagued them for much of last year.

During the playoffs Kapono had pin-point accuracy.

Also supporting the case for Kapono to start is the evidence that he is much more effective when he is playing alongside a competent PG. If Kapono is used off the bench how effective will he be with Roko and Solomon running the team? Neither guy is a pure PG like Calderon. Kapono’s shooting ability is simply too good to waste and have riding the pine.

Of course the knock on Kapono is his defense, or lack thereof. Is he the most agile player on the court at any given time? Absolutely not, but the stats tell us that he may not be the liability one would expect. According to 82games.com the team last season was net 0.6 ppg over 48 minutes when Kapono was on the floor. Given the Raps defense was more that porous at times last season I was absolutely dumbfounded to see that Kapono was even a net positive. Even if you do see him as a defensive liability wouldn’t you sleep more soundly knowing that he had Bosh and O’Neal covering his back rather than only one of these guys?

Writing and more importantly researching this article has convinced me that perhaps outside of Bargnani who will be relied on heavily to spark the second team offence (and who is way ahead in our latest x-factor poll), Kapono may in fact be the true wildcard to this upcoming season. If he produces anything like he did against the Magic there may be a lot less calls for that athletic swingman.

I for one have lofty expectations for Kap-One this season. Hopefully what I expect isn’t too far off what actually happens this season.

HOWLAND

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Comments

My jury is still out on Kapono. Do not think we used him properly last season, but until the playoffs he just didn't seem a good fit.
It would seem that with CB4 and JO in the middle there will be more room on the floor for our shooters, a perfect situation for him to succeed.

by Tinman on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Well, I'm sold. Definitely surprised to see Kap's 0.6 differential because its seems like he can be beaten off the dribble at any time. But like you say that won't matter much as wings get by him only to drop into the pit of Sarlacc.

I get the feeling he doesn't want to be a specialist, but I think he has to become a bit more of a chucker though. Those threes add up fast.

by axl on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

The only situation where this wouldn't necessarily work is when opposed by a team that plays a sufficient man to man defense that doesn't rely too much on double teaming. For the sake of argument, if you look at how Boston is currently constructed, assuming Ray Allen's offense would pose more trouble for Anthony Parker's defense than vice versa, it looks like Boston would hold the advantage in a series. Assuming the Raptors are a playoff caliber team, I think the determination of how good or bad they are should be made with respect to the quality of other playoff caliber teams.

by The Interloper on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

AXl - He's actually a good position defender. He does get beat but the weak interior defence of the 2nd unit that he was forced to play with had a lot to do with that. He's no Bruce Bowen, but both Moon and Parker were getting beat off the dribble as well - they just had Bosh behind them. Kapono had Nestrovic alot of the times.

by Mikeone on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

yeah mikeone, that's what I meant by the pit of sarlacc thing, kapono just needs to force them to their weak hand steer them in...

Also on the kapono topic, I think he might be our most valuable trade chip come deadline time.

by axl on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Mikeone, Kapono is not a good position defender. At all. He doesn't have the foot speed and lateral quicks to stay in front of his oponent and routinely fouls. He's a liability.
That + 0.6 stat is missleading as it is a team stat (there are 4 other guys on the floor that share responsibility) and last season Kapono was usually allowed to play against 2nd teams and would not be matched up against the good offensive players. But the argument is that with both Bosh and JO in the paint this can be masked.

He is however, the perfect fit with Bosh and JO in the paint on the offensive end. Either you double the post and live with Kapono and Parker shooting threes or you play straight up and get killed by Bosh and JO. Teams will have to pick.
In todays NBA, with the offensive player having the advantage as far as hand-checking and "bodying", even in the post, you can only play Bosh or JO in single coverage for so long. That's the theoretical argument anyways. Let's see how it plays out. I for one am optimistic...

by MAS on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

By the way... I wrote an email to Raptors TV recently expressing my disapointment with Raptors HD TV and their lack of actual HD programing. Here is what they wrote back... in case anyone had similar concerns about HD programing or was thinking of picking up the channel this season:

"Thank you for your email and your interest in Raptors NBA TV. I appreciate you taking the time to send in your thoughts and suggestions.

While I am glad to hear that you are a recent subscriber to Raptors NBA TV HD, I am sorry that you were disappointed with the fact that the Raptors Rewind and other programming is not available in HD on Raptors NBA TV HD. Unfortunately, at this time we are experiencing some technical difficulties with our HD channel which is why you are not seeing HD programming or the HD logo. We hope to have this issue resolved very soon.

Raptors NBA TV HD will again carry over 100 NBA games from around the league in HD this season. In addition we also offer select programming from NBA TV in high definition. Once our schedule is confirmed we will have a list of all the NBA & NCAA games that will air in HD on Raptors NBA TV.

Please note that I have documented your questions and complaints and sent them to the appropriate personnel here at Raptors NBA TV. I am sorry for any confusion or frustration this issue has caused. Thanks for being a fan!"

100 GAMES IN HD!

by MAS on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I like the guy and really hope he does well but doesn't his game scream "triangle Offence" to anyone else? Maybe if it doesnt work out this year we can get something out of LA for him at the deadline (their screaming for a decent SF) - maybe Ariza and change - Phil likes his "Steve Kerr types"...

by Edgar on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

MAS says: "Kapono is not a good position defender. At all. He doesn't have the foot speed and lateral quicks to stay in front of his oponent and routinely fouls. He's a liability."
----
Back up a bit. Being a good positional defender means being in the right spot with regards to ball-you-man, staying between your man and the basket off the ball, and making the right help adjustments. This stuff Kapono does well.

What you describe is poor on-ball coverage, which I think we all agree is a deficiency in Kapono's game...

by raptorman on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I don’t know raptorman… I would argue that due to his lack of quicks and defensive court awareness that
Kapono is not a good positional defender as well as on-ball defender (if you want to get technical).
This is highlighted by his need to clutch, grab and foul off the ball which happened all the time last year.
On-ball defence is built upon positional defence… That is to say, you can’t guard a guy if you’re not in the right place.
I remember many times noticing that he was well out of position last season. Anyways, its irrelevant, you can be in the
right place all the time, but if your man gets by you the defence has to rotate. And if your man gets by you often,
the opposing team will intentionally isolate you, and then you are on an island against the offensive player and its up to
you to stop him. Something Kapono is not good at doing.

by MAS on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I think the most frustrating thing for me about Kapono was his foul rate. Not sure if everyone remembers this but AS SOON as he entered a game, he'd immediately get called for a foul. I'm not sure if that's because he's trying to play with his hands due to his lack of foot speed, or just lack of attention to detail. But in any event, this is something he's going to have to work on next year.

by Franchise on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

You're right raptorman, kapono is usually in the right position the split second before he gets left in the dust by some quicker player.

by axl on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I said when you wrote the AP X Factor article. Kapono should (must) light it up with CB4 and O'Neail drawing the defence to the basket. And if Kapono gets his groove on he'll open up space down low for the big guys. And on D the big guys down low will help cover for parimeter deficiencies.

by Ian Johnson on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Exciting that training camp is about to get started. Even with the olypics it seemed like a really long summer. Love the x factor articles too as i said before, lots to think about. Are you guys going to do any fantasy ball coverage this year?

by fromlongrange on Sep 19, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

U R showing J Kapono 2 much love. He's a one trick pony that only shoots and nothing else. If U remember last year Sam MItchel placed Kapono as a starter, with diastrous results

by JT on Sep 21, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions