The X-Factor Report – Anthony Parker

With another big man in the middle demanding the ball, it is unlikely Parker's scoring will go up much but his value remains as a defensive stopper.The scoring opportunities will depend on how Bosh and O'neil share the ball as the offense will run thru them 90% of the time. And finally, Parker is not the type of player to demand the ball, he will only get what happens to fall his way.

Nice article Howland. I hope he can handle another season of heavy minutes

My only authentic Raps' jersey has AP on its back. His value is beyond statistics: he is consistent, he knows and plays his role at perfection, he is a mentor for the new guys and he is a consummate professional and a class act off the court.He is, in a sense, over-used for his age and this season seems to be even worse from this point of view as we don't have any proven back-up SG however he will give everything on the court. He and Garbo were the main reason for our success 2 seasons ago and last year AP could not right the ship by himself with the chemistry issues and the fight for minutes between starters and the bench.
I always wished him to take more of a leadership role on the court: he'a a veteran and he's seen it all and has very high b-ball IQ. However he is more of a quiet type leader (same as Bosh) and he willingly slides behind the curtain when other people play primma-donna. All in all, he is an essential piece of any contender and people like him don't grow on trees. I'm almost positive that next year he'll go to Europe for a bigger contract that we can offer with our luxury tax hell. I'll miss him dearly. In the meantime here it is for a great season from AP: the co-captain, the leader, the veteran, the best mid-range player we have and the best defensive wing.

I wonder if AP is perfect for this role now: similar to a James Posey type player-situation. Like Boston, the Raps now have its 3 stars (CB4, JO, Ocho) that the offense will run through, and now needs solid play (make open looks, defend, rebound) from the other (wing) positions. In fact, this new situation may substantially 'improve' Moon's and Kap's play as well, by simplifying their roles (i.e. not asking them to be big scorers & initiators on offense).

I agree he needs to be more reliable and restore his D (so do Moon and Kap), but it will be easier to do that if that is their main focus. I think the bigger Q is if he goes down to injury...then the Raps will sorely miss AP's solid if unspectacular play.

How can you have 2 X factors? :) What's Joey G, the ZZ factor?

I think Bargs is a much bigger "X" factor for the season (meaning an unknown). AP is steady and will deliver his points etc. I trust him out there. Bargs - well, we have no idea really.

Does anyone know what Parker's points / averages per 48 would be if he only played beside Calderon? I mean - are his numbers lower or higher when TJ was on the floor? Would be a cool stat to see if someone knows how to dig it up .. franchise?

We had better hope AP doesn't go down with injury or Joey G learns to play 2 because I smell disaster at this position. AP is at the age where the "law of diminished returns" starts to kick in. Everyone might be in denial right now but we all noticed that he was a step slower last year on d and his scoring is too inconsistent. I would rather he took a step back scoring wise (say 10-11 ppg) but gave that nigh in and night out then he goes up and continues to give 0 one night and 20 the next. There is no doubt he will be even slower this year and it just boggles my mind that BC didn't make a move to get an eventual replacement. If we assume that everything goes right this year, the Raps get into the second round of the playofss, everyone stays healthy etc, we will most likely be drafting a project type player. If Parker can maintain what he did last year we are ok for this year but what about next year? I think we can all agree that we are not winning the championship this year so we should be building towards something, shouldn't we?

Utes -

Of course you can have two x-factors...in particular when you have two guys writing who tend to disagree more often than not!

I think this a rare occasion that you've missed the point, Howland. As RT says, Parker's value is all about defence. Namely the superstar wings you mentioned and that's also where his lack of backup will be most apparent. I think Kapono,etc. can make up for his scoring, but defensively he's nowhere near. I account for AP's drop off last year by looking at his defensive backup, Mopete was just a notch higher than delfino/dixon/therestoftheteam even as a backup and also definitely could legitimately guard the superstars.

I see parker having the same energy issues as last year and because of that, late in games, ceasing to be an offensive threat.

Which is too bad, because as an offensively focused player, AP is the most experienced clutch player the raps have.

Howland - Your comments on AP's play based on the 'matching' opposing player twigged another thought on his consistency.

His scoring, etc. may rely more on what the other team's defensive scheme is doing (not just his opposing matchup). If they were focusing on Bosh, Ford/Calderon, then you would expect a productive game from AP. Conversely, if the other team focused on perimeter coverage (while freeing up Bosh or point play), than his production would be less. If this is the explanation, then this in fact a good thing: AP contributes more when needed, less if other 'parts' are working.

Is there some way of comparing his stats based on CB4's, Calderon's, or other team player stats? If so, it could be checked whether AP has a 'big' game when they have a 'lesser' one, and vice-versa.

I'd argue that AP's defined role on the team has been on defence and glue, since we already have a good number of offensive weapons available. Which is not to say he's not capable of being an offensive force, we just don't give him the 'slashing' role.

I agree with JayElZee..although I dont have the stats to back it up. Perker does what he needs to do. In fact, I don't worry about consistancy with him (in terms of PPG)

I personally think that he will have more of a bounce back year, and produce like we remembered 2 yeras ago. I think that last year was like a sophmore season (slump?) and he was tired from the previous season of 82 games + playoffs. I think his body, alhtough getting older) will be more ready to adapt to a full schedule. Remember his previous few years were all in Europe.

Maybe Im being overly optimistic, but that is my feeling...that he will give us what he gave in his 1st year...

After reading these first 2 xfactor reports im realizing that this season has a LOT of questions right now. Id be interested to see his stats with jose too actually and maybe some defensive numbers.

While I agree with the sentiment of most posters here (AP is a great guy and a good "glue" player not to mention that his tree point shot from the pocket is almost automatic when unguarded) I do believe that the wing positions, and the shooting guard position specifically, are the Raptor’s weak spots. At the Small Forward you have Kapono and Moon, who are like two opposites of a spectrum, both specialists. One plays good defence and has great athletic ability the other has little to no athletic ability, plays terrible defence but is a great shooting specialist.

The Shooting Guard spot is even more troubling… Parker’s game had noticeably declined last year and I don’t expect any improvements this year as he’s not getting any younger. Hassan Adams is an absolute question mark, the question being: "Can he even play in this league, never mind be productive?" The fact of the matter is none of these players (who are likely to get the lion’s share of minutes at the 2 and 3) can manufacture their own shot. Leading directly back to the question from Franchise’s post from last week: "Who bails this team out with 6 seconds left on the shot clock? While I am optimistic overall about this season in general, these issues as well as whether or not Roko Ukic can back up Calderone will be huge themes this year IMO.

The team on a whole went in a mid season funk...Kapono did not start producing until late in the season...the coach does not run any plays for the 2 guard which leave parker to try and do it by himself...Late in the season Parker and Moon started to take it to the basket...Parker is a skilled player who has to on most nights gaurd some of the best 2 guard in the league..ala Kobe, Wade, Redd..etc that takes away from his scoring...with the additions the Raps make this off season Parker will have a much easier time than last year, he will get a lot of open looks and we know the results if you leave AP open. I feel this will be a big year for AP he will play about the same minutes as Jose. The Raps will be a very dangerous team for opposing teams to match up with...Parker is a great X-Factor who I think will be more valuable than Bargs...I am really excited about the upcoming season and if Sam has to I think Joey would give other team fits if he backup the 2 guard position....Raps4Life

Great article Howland.
I'm not sure what people mean when they say that you missed out on mentioning defence. I guess people see him as a much stronger defender than you do. I do as well. I don't think many players can defend against talented ball handling guards in the NBA one on one. TJ was quick as hell, but didn't seem to be able to keep his body in front of talented guards either. It's team defence that matters, other than for the Bowen's of the world who are allowed to foul. Sam has yet to show that he can coach defence.

Anyway, as for Parker, the attempted pick up of Salmons looks like a bit of a loss now. However, I like Hassan Addams. He's a rock, solid defender, and will take it to the rack. If he plays good defence, he'll see significant minutes and Parker can avoid burnout.

Offensively, Parker is a great 3 ball man and he will thrive with O;Neal in town. Kapono, too.

On the X Factor topic, the goal over the next few weeks is to look at the cast surrounding JO, CB4 and Calderon. So just like JO's health is one of the X factors this coming season, so are numerous other players like Bargs, AP etc. Next one will be up on Monday.

This AP article of Howland's got me thinking about something else too. Perhaps the biggest single advantage of bringing O'Neal on board is that it will allow role players to simply play their roles, and not have to be things that they aren't. For instance with Parker, perhaps now he can be even more of a Bruce Bowen type...a long-range gunner who can allow his scoring average to dip while he concentrates on the defensive end of things. No longer does the team need him to be the second or even third option.

Franchise, I think that there are a lot of peripheral benefits to JO’s presence similar to what you’ve mentioned with Parker. For instance, even though I have been down on Kapono (a lot) in the past, he now makes perfect sense in the starting small forward spot with JO and Bosh in the line up. With two solid defenders in the lane, Kapono’s gaping, cavernous defensive liabilities won’t be so glaring. Also, who better to keep defences honest than the best three point shooter in the league? That is as long as he doesn’t do what he did all last year (before the playoffs) and pass up threes for ill fated dribble drives. In fact Kapono should do nothing else than waive his hands on defence and shoot open jumpers. Nothing.

Also, another benefit is a defined, cast in stone role for Bargs: utility big man off the bench. And please for the sake of all things holy Brian Colangelo… No time for Bargs at the Small Forward (like he suggested on the Fan 590). Please. I beg you! Lets realize that he is a bench player (as things stand now) and allow him to succeed in this role and build off of that success before we start jerking him around again. PLEASE!

You want Kapono starting at SF....would that really be a defensive downgrade from Bargnani?

Kapono may be "the best 3pg %%%%" shooter in the league.....but my prediction is that Bargnani will hit more threes than Kapono will this year.

So Bargs at the three once in a while would be fine with me....guaranteed we'll see the three 7 footers at least in experiment mode.

I think we could see an improved Moon....

And I think we'll see a traded Kapono.

Can't wait for X-Factor Part III. Don't bump the Hump!

DayOner, maybe you can explain to me what the advantage is of having Bargs at the SF. I'm not being rude here, I just really don't understand what advantage is gained by having him at the three?

I will name some disadvantages though:

1. Bargs gets confused by his role and multiple positions. We've seen this movie before.

2. Bargs can't guard oposing small forwards.

3. Bargs is not quick enough to penetrate past Small Forwards limiting his offensive effectiveness.

4. The oponents 4 or 5 don't have to come out to guard him. (BTW this is the whole reason Bargs was supposed to be great and have such an advantage, because he can draw out oponent big men and have his way with them on the perimeter while getting the oponents defence out of rotation.)

5. Bargs' inability to guard his position at the SF will throw the whole team out into wild rotations that will cause the D to break down.

Parker is like Stackhouse or Finley and should imo be used similarly, 30+ mpg really reduces his effectiveness. Of course if you have no choice than roster composition should be questioned - are ya listenin BC?

I don't want to see Bargs at the 3 either except for in select situations and match-ups. I especially don't want to see him as the starting 3...something that will reek of hypocrisy...

I definitely don't expect Bargs to start at SF, which makes the Roko Bargnani (who last appeared in two episodes of Happy Days) chemisty all the more important.