6 Seconds on the Clock…

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Sep 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT in Feature Stories

The Raptors don't have an answer for LBJ up top...but do they need one?

With his back to the basket, Chris Bosh spins, sizes up his defender, fakes, and realizing he’s double-teamed, passes the ball back out to the perimeter.

Seconds later, Bosh reposts, and another entry pass is delivered by Raptors’ point guard Jose Calderon.

Bosh again tries his move, only this time he sees a cutting Jermaine O’Neal, and feathers a pass through the lane to him. However once he receives the ball, O’Neal realizes he has no room to operate, and sends the ball back out to Anthony Parker, near the 3 point line.

At this point, both offensive first options for Toronto have been exhausted and there remain only six seconds left on the shot clock.

Parker doesn’t have an open shot at the basket, so he must decide in a split second some way to create an open look…

The scenario I’ve just described is one that may occur at some point next year.

It’s certainly one that as Raptors’ fans we’ve seen on many an occasion and often, the result has been a wild shot fade-away by Parker or TJ Ford or a turnover giving the ball back to the opposing team.

So will this year be any different?

An interesting article from back in June triggered my thoughts about this topic.

From the ESPN the Magazine piece entitled "When All Else Fails," Chris Broussard takes a look at that crucial part in a team’s possession, when the first two offensive options have been thrown overboard and it’s up to usually a single player to come to the rescue.

Only problem is, for Toronto, who is that?

While Toronto has hopefully addressed some of its rebounding and defence issues, the club still lacks a player who can really create his own shot from the perimeter.

In fact, for all of his ups and downs, TJ Ford was probably Toronto’s best option (see 2006 wins against Portland and the LA Clippers for instance) and now he’s gone.

Jamario Moon has the athletic prowess to play this role, but he didn’t show much ability in this regard last year.

And Joey Graham…well…moving on.

In Broussard’s piece, he brings up several interesting stats thanks to the folks at 82games.com.

The first of these is that "one of five first-action possessions (any possession that doesn’t begin with an offensive rebound) in the recent regular season came down to the final six seconds of the shot clock."

One in five?

And he goes further to state that in the playoffs, probably because of the increased defensive intensity and scouting predicated on stopping an opponent’s first offensive strike, that number goes up to one in four.

Secondly, 82games.com identified five of last year’s final eight playoff teams as some of the best in the league at getting to the free-throw line or scoring in the final six seconds. The teams were the Jazz (the top club), the Lakers (right behind), the Magic, Pistons and Celtics.

In the article, one scout stated that 90 per cent of the time this last option comes down to a simple isolation or pick-and-roll sequence. And from the teams above, you can see that each either has an exceptional one-on-one player (see Lakers, Los Angeles), or excel at the pick-and-roll game, (see Jazz, Utah.) Other teams at the top of the list included the Cavs (Lebron), the Spurs (featuring Manu’s one-on-one ability), and the Wizards (Mr. Arenas might have something to do with this.)

So what about the Raptors, where do they fit in?

While the numbers aren’t out for last year, a similar squad in 2006-07 took the majority of its shots (37%) early in the shot clock, in fact in the first 10 seconds. This makes sense based on Colangelo and Mitchell’s ill-conceived "100 shots" plan that was eventually abandoned whereby we saw Toronto play at one of the league’s slower paces. However even with this slow pace, the Dinos took only 12 per cent of their shots with 21 or more seconds left on the clock and only 23 per cent between the 16 and 20 second mark. And in the final few ticks, the Raptors shot an ugly 41 per cent in terms of field goal efficiency.

In that clutch time, it was usually Chris Bosh or TJ Ford who were called upon and in fact Bosh is the only Raptors on 82games.com’s "clutch stats" list, at 19.

All these stats are interesting I suppose, but what does this mean for next year’s team?

Well one could argue that it would be reason for concern.

It could be argued that without Ford, more pressure is now on Bosh to make something happen in that time, as Jose Calderon doesn’t have the same one-on-one abilities as TJ.

And the loss of Carlos Delfino, probably Toronto’s second-best perimeter creator off the dribble, could intensify this even further. Based on the 2006-07 stats, Toronto scored a measly eight points per game in the final seconds of the shot clock and overall, nearly 70 per cent of shots taken were jumpers, numbers that I doubt changed much last year.

On the other hand, perhaps Toronto doesn’t need a perimeter creator as much. Toronto is one of the better pick-and-roll teams with Jose Calderon running the play to near perfection time and time again. The addition of Jermaine O’Neal as another "roll partner" could make Toronto nearly impossible to stop off of this play. If a team plays off of Bosh expecting the ball to go to JO off the screen-and-roll, Calderon could dish to Bosh for his lethal elbow jumper. Conversely if a team stays with Bosh, perhaps an alley-oop to a rolling O’Neal will be the best bet.

The New Orleans Hornets are a perfect example of this in fact.

While the team doesn’t have a Kobe Bryant or Lebron James on the perimeter, it was one of the better shot clock efficiency teams in the regular season. This was thanks to the heady point guard play of Chris Paul and the size and athleticism of Tyson Chandler. The two lead the league in alley-oops with 107 and even the threat of this play opened things up for shooters like Mo Pete and Peja Stojakovic, or forays to the basket for CP3.

Toronto could do a good amount of damage in the same way and Sam Mitchell would be smart to emphasize this in training camp, in addition to whatever Tim Duncan/David Robinson patterns that he envisions.

However all of this starts at the point guard position and it’s another reason why having as healthy a season as possible from Jose Calderon is paramount. Toronto has struggled in the past with late-game clock management and the team can no longer depend on the buzzer-beating antics of Mo Pete to get the job done.

No, the Raptors didn’t add an Andre Iguodala type one-on-one player from the perimeter in the off-season…

…but with a little creative coaching from Sam Mitchell, perhaps no one will be the wiser…

FRANCHISE

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Well,
the answer could be easy: since you described an offensive possession, if the late 2006-2007 Andrea check's in this season, give him the ball for a three, he'll be able to shoot over a small/wing or, with 6 seconds, shake and bake against a big.... wait, I do not want to steal the thunder for your week end article.....

by renato on Sep 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I never thought of the two big men together being like a Tyson Chandler/David West tandem. But now that it's in my head it's just getting me more and more excited to see this year's team. Jose definitely has the court sense to know when to shoot and when and who to pass it to.

I don't know about Roko but hopefully he's coachable enough to listen and learn from Jose and SMitch.

I'm all jacked up! And it's your fault Franchise!

by Jon on Sep 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Just reading through your previous post got me thinking about the Raptors introductions and what would be the right theme. Well, it quite literally came to me when I went to watch Pierce Brosnan sing, a mistake I would recommend you don’t repeat. But there it was, before the movie began, a new ad by Telus asking us to turn off our cell phones. Have you seen it? It’s the one with the ferrets. http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=NP4mgObDeUU&feature=related
From Wiki.answers.com:
"The theme comes from the soundtrack to the 2000 movie Requiem for a Dream, composed by Clint Mansell. The main theme is entitled "Lux Aeterna".

The theme's popularity led it to be re-orchestrated for the 12 minutes trailers for The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. In honor of the theme's origins, it was entitled "Requiem for a Tower" - this is probably the version that you know best with full orchestra and choir."
Here it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKLpJtvzlEI
It starts off slow, but move it to the 4:30 mark and tell me this won’t energize the building and intimidate the visiting team, especially when it all kicks in at the 5:00 mark.
Just as an example, here is something I found that shows off how anything can be made to look epic with the addition of this music.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrZUfKk_mPc&feature=related
What do people think?

by Zona on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Zona:

I can already picture it. Very cool.

Can't see it happening though.
After all of the debates over the last couple of years about the theme, I am convinced they will go with something more in the mold of Kanye's or worse Destiny's Child's dance # that still gives me the heebie-jeebies whenever I remember the red rocket breaking out his moves.

by sharpy on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I am a MASSIVE fan of Clint Mansell from way back when he was in 'Pop Will Eat Itself'.

Lux Aeterna would be off-the-scale wicked as an opening.

I just don't see it happening. If we have to go back to something we've tried before I didn't mind 'Renegades of Funk' by Rage Against the Machine' - though I would have preferred the more aggressive 'Killing in The Name Of' but it isn't very kid friendly.

My bet is we get 'Toxic' from Britney or some such thing. And so it goes.

by bedhead on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Rage against the Machine is great for pumping people up but something like "Calm like a Bomb" or "Take The Power Back" would be better picks from that band. How about "People of the Sun" for Pheonix and "Bulls on Parade" for Chicago? lol

by Edgar on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Come playoff time, there's just no way around this problem. You can pick and roll into the second round though, which would be fine by me. As well, three-point shooting is key to getting our 90 gajillion bigs some open court to work with.

by axl on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

When it comes to an intro song I have always believed that it should be the extended version of what they already use in the CB4 commercial on RapsTV.

Here's the link: http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=y2pMyMz8Q3g

This would be a classic and a song that wouldn't have to change year after year depending on what artist has the new flavour of the month.

by HOWLAND on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

You just gave Bargnani a role that he could thrive in. We've all seen him attack the basket, take shots from the perimeter. Maybe Bargnani can now develop as a role player. His role being a 3rd scoring option for the Raptors.

by Bargsbust on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

As far as opening themes are concerned, I would go for the "Toronto Rock" theme from the TV show featuring Toronto`s orginal VJ, John Majhor (RIP). Gets me going to start the day though probably dates me a bit.

by Acie on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Sorry, should have read the "Toronto Rocks" theme.

by Acie on Sep 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

BargBust:
that is where our analysis diverge, for me that is a starting point, for you the ultimate goal. I respect your opinion but I could not agree less, the guy has 20 points on his hands night in, night out. He already has a respectable man on man defense (Dirk does not come close in that respect, just to name a star you believe is out of reach) and, indeed, a poor team defense (But is Dirk's any better?) and rebounding skill (here Dirk is indeed well ahead). I believe that right here, right now you have plenty of stuff to build on. Ok Andrea is not Michael Jordan, can we move on now?

by renato on Sep 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Good to see the site back up, hopefully no more issues are encountered. Great article franchise, interesting comparison to neworleans and hopefully well see a ton of alleyoops next year. Gonna be tough for even the bostons of the league to matchup as who knows which of bosh or oneal will be rolling to the basket and who will be stepping out for the j. Tuff to defend that and hopefully it negates our need for a perimeter shotcreator.

by fromlongrange on Sep 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

The 6 second shot:
Calderon is the key, he is not now the 1 on 1 player that TJ is, but he is a superior, more consistent floor manager, jump shooter, passer and P&R manager, as well as lay-up scorer. He needs to expand his driving and drawing fouls and scoring with shots from in close. Calderon is now the MAN IN CHARGE and must start taking the responsibilty to make the BIG game winning shot.

by Johnn19 on Sep 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I think Calderon is the key here as well. His ability to shoot is especially crucial as teams at times backed off Ford, forcing him into those wild fadeaways. Now, teams have to prepare for a pass to either monster bigs, or worry about playing off Jose to guard Bosh and O'Neal, only to have Calderon drill one from long-range.

Another interesting thing to look at is the peripheral players. Teams are also going to have to worry about Kapono's shooting if he starts, or even Moon. Now, Moon might not HAVE to be the one-on-one creator as he can take advantage of defensive lapses by the opposition, and simply sneak towards the basket for put-back dunks and offensive boards. Teams may be so concerned about Bosh and JO and Jose, that others like Moon and Parker get a lot more open looks...

by Franchise on Sep 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions