Free Agency or, "How not to Win an NBA Title…"

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT in Feature Stories

Emeka overpaid? Did Charlotte have a choice?

Earlier this week, Emeka Okafor signed a 6-year, $72 Million deal to stay with the Charlotte Bobcats.

The deal caught my attention for various reasons, not the least of which was because at first glance it certainly appears that the Cats are overpaying for Emeka’s services. On top of this, Okafor rejected a similar deal last summer as he believed he was worth more.

When Okafor initially rejected the Bobcats’s offer, many stated that he was foolish to turn down that sort of money, thinking that with a lack of teams holding cap space, Emeka would never get close to an offer like that again. The proof is in the pudding as they say and already this summer we’ve seen other players like Ben Gordon struggle to find a team that would pay him close to the extension money he was offered around the same time as Okafor.

However Okafor came out on top in the end and did what some thought was unthinkable earlier this summer; not only did he receive a similar deal to the one he was offered last year, but he actually may be making a bit more in the long run.

So what changed? Why was a cash-strapped team like the Bobcats, who were already paying out big money to Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace, ready to jump into the deep-end without a life preserver? After all, while Okafor was a former top two draft pick, he’s hardly been a franchise-altering player and has barely been able to stay healthy through his first four NBA seasons.

The answer is simply because in the end, Charlotte had no choice.

Like many small-market teams in the NBA, losing Okafor would mean a lot more to Charlotte than simply losing a player who’s averaged a double-double to date in his career. No, losing Emeka would also signal to future free-agents that Charlotte was not willing to pay to keep top talent, and any hope of breaking the endless cycle of "drafting top talent only to lose them via free-agency" would never cease.

As Toronto Raptors’ fans, we know all too well about this issue.

We saw Tracy McGrady essentially walk because of financial constrictions (not to mention his desire to be "the man" on a team in sun destination) and each year that saw the contracts of players like Vince Carter and Chris Bosh come up was one that brought that extra bit of stress with it. (The exception being CB4’s latest contract, handled masterfully by BC and co)

Free-agency really is a team killer, as the economics of the NBA more times than not force teams into making decisions they really don’t want to make.

Let’s take a quick look at the past 10 NBA Champions:

2007-08: Boston Celtics
2006-07: San Antonio Spurs
2005-06: Miami Heat
2004-05: San Antonio Spurs
2003-04: Detroit Pistons
2002-03: San Antonio Spurs
2001-02: Los Angeles Lakers
2000-01: Los Angeles Lakers
1999-00: Los Angeles Lakers
1998-99: San Antonio Spurs

Of the group, there is not a team on the list that used free agency to put them over the top. Yes, at one point or another some of their star players were retained or acquired via big free-agency deals, but none of these teams lured an All-Star free-agent in as their last missing piece to a title.

-The Celtics built assets via the draft which they in turn swapped for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.
-The Spurs were built on internal moves and retaining unheralded prospects like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to surround Tim Duncan. (Oh, and at one point they had some Naval Captain as their go-to guy…another original draft pick of theirs.)
-The Detroit Pistons may have signed Chauncey Billups as a free agent but this was before he had proven himself as a star in the league, and others like Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace were brought on-board via the draft or trades.

You could say that the Lakers, who signed Shaq away from Orlando via free-agency, were the one exception, however Kobe was brought from the Charlotte Hornets via trade after he was drafted, and it took his development along with Shaq’s play to get the team over the hump. NBA titles didn’t arrive as soon as O’Neal showed up in Tinsel Town in 1996.

And of course Miami’s lone title came via the O’Neal trade for Lamar Odom and Caron Butler.

So after looking at a list like this, you really have to wonder when you see teams like Orlando shelling out maximum doe for a Rashard Lewis. Yes Orlando has a solid core, and had a great season last year, but is more of it not due to the rise of Hedo Turkoglu and the development of Dwight Howard? How is this team going to add the missing pieces it needs without the financial flexibility to do so?

And that brings me to the Philadelphia 76ers.

On paper, the Elton Brand trade looks like a huge win for the team, and one that could result in them contending with the Boston’s and Detroit’s at the top of the East. However here is Brand, at 29, coming off what could be a career-destroying injury. Achilles tears are very serious injuries and as Howland put it to me the other night "who knows what type of player the 76ers just shelled out almost $90 Million for?"

If Brand stumbles and looks like a post-injury Shareef Abdur-Rahim, at one point one of the league’s young forwards with the most potential, then Philly is suddenly stuck for the next half a decade or so with another version of Chris Webber, this time one with an even more immovable deal.

However I think the most egregious free-agent signing is the Joe Johnson type. You know, the team with virtually no talent who jumps the couch (ala Tom Cruise) in effort to grab a star player, but not one who’s going to be able to turn the franchise around. Yes Michael Redd and Zach Randolph (when he was a Blazer), we’re looking at you. However as previously mentioned, NBA economics are such that if you don’t overpay these type of players, you’re left with little in terms of talent, and risk alienating what little fan base you have left. And while I didn’t run the numbers, it would be interesting to see what percentage of these type of deals result in the team having to trade the player to dump the salary within 3 years. I can think of numerous examples off the top of my head including Richard Jefferson and even good ol’ Vince here in Toronto.

And do these trades ever provide equal benefit back?

Not so much.

No, the only hope is that while you overpay one such player, the rest of your team develops around them, you build through the draft, or just get lucky.

And unfortunately as NBA history has shown, that rarely happens.

The last 10 championship clubs built themselves up via a few key trades, the draft, retaining their own main players and a few additional free agent signings to round things out. (Your James Poseys, your Robert Horrys (with San Antonio) etc.) It’s a stealthy combination of understanding players’ values, managing team finances, and having the foresight to make the tough decisions regarding your own personnel.

In fact, let’s look at one team that in the past four years, has taken a shot at both approaches.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you, the Portland Trailblazers!

The following was the Blazers’ roster in 2004-05:

PG: Damon Stoudamire, Nick Van Exel, Sebastian Telfair
SG: Derek Anderson, Ruben Patterson, Richie Frahm,
SF: Darius Miles, Travis Outlaw, Sergei Monia
PF: Zach Randolph, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Viktor Khryapa
C: Joel Przybilla, Ha Seung-Jin, Theo Ratlif

As you can see, the Jailblazers decided to go with an overpaid core of Miles, Abdur-Rahim and Randolph, with the gigantic salary of Theo Ratlif along for the ride. (Three of four who basically played the same position.) The hope was that the youngsters like Khryapa, Telfair and Jin would develop and fill things out around the others.

Jin...the one time future of the Blazers

Well…obviously that didn’t work out and in about three years, almost the entire roster had been banished, the lone holdovers being Przybilla and Outlaw. Now the Blazers’ roster looks quite different:

PG: Jerryd Bayless, Steve Blake and Sergio Rodriguez
SG: Brando Roy, and Martell Webster
SF: Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum
PF: LaMarucs Aldridge, Channing Frye, Ike Diogu
C: Greg Oden, Przybilla, Raef LaFrentz

Add on the fact that LaFrentz coming off the books in a year and this team has some serious future potential.

Much like Boston recently did, if Portland decides they need to add one more big piece down the road to compete for a title, they can exchange some of their wealth of young talent to acquire it.

It’s pretty remarkable when you look at the two clubs side-by-side and as Raptors’ fans, we’ve seen Bryan Colangelo perform a similar, albeit not quite as drastic, housecleaning here.

So what about the current Toronto Raptors’ team? Are they following a successful template?

I think it’s no doubt a great start, but I think we’ll have a much better idea in two years time, after BC does some trimming and pruning around Jose, Bosh and Jermaine. If the team starts to make some noise at that point, and can retain the big pivots for the long-haul (assuming JO stays healthy and plays up to his potential), then Toronto definitely has more upside than the majority of NBA franchise out there.

The hope of course is that Toronto’s roster peaks in terms of performance about the time the Celtics and Pistons begin their descent. No doubt there are a lot of "ifs" and "maybes" along the way but I think the most important thing here is that it’s incredibly encouraging just to be able to discuss this topic!

This morning was another stark reminder of how fast fortunes can change in the NBA as upon reading about the Sacramento Kings’ reacquisition of Bobby Jackson and Jason Williams’ possible defection to Europe, it brought me back to a time when the Kings were the talk of the league.

Now, the Kings could quite possibly be one of the five worst teams in the league and are suddenly looking to completely rebuild.

Incidentally, you can almost trace their demise back to their overpayment of Chris Webber. That started a string of questionable free-agent signings and one can even ponder about their recent contractual obligations to the likes of Mikki Moore and Beno Udrih and gasp, Kevin Martin.

Yes Martin is a great talent but doesn’t he fit my previous Joe Johnson syndrome? Isn’t he a good player on a bad team? Is he really worth almost $13 Million a season by the time 2012 hits?

Flip the coin though and I’m sure if you asked any Kings fan about the Kings decision to re-up Martin for that amount and I’m sure you’d more often than not get pretty much the same response…

…"well…what else were they supposed to do?"

FRANCHISE

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Comments

Great article Franchise

I think a lot of the problems come as a result of general managers trying to delay the inevitable.

Was resigning Emeka going to get the Bobcats into the playoffs and allow them to make a serious run? Absolutely not....essentially they will be just as bad as last year with lass cap flexability.

Their GM made the move because he was under pressure to retain his "star" player and becuase if he didn't resign him the Bobcats would be much worse.

Being much worse would look bad for him and get him fired however it is probably what the organization needs; a chance to pick up a franchise talent who can transform their roster and team into a solid playoff team like Emeka was supposed to do but didn't and Dwight is doing.

However one team actually changed this up a bit. The Hornets completely overpaid for the services of Peja. However they were lucky that Paul was so good that it took the spot light of Peja's over price contract....and they got David West at a cheap price.

However they would have been much better off had they not offered that contract to Peja.

What does this mean for the Raptors? Well for one thing I hope we dont'settle for being average if we're not going to compete I'd rather we continue to blow it up and start from scratch. I don't want us turning into one of those good enough to make the playoffs and not get a top pick but not good enough to do anything in the playoff teams.

by wtf on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

besides detroit.... all of the championship teams had at least a top 10 player in the nba at that time (arguably top 5)..... do you really think cb4 is a top 5-10 player in teh league

by fizzle on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Top 5 in the NBA:
1)Kobe
2)LeBron
3)Steve Nash
4)Carmelo
5)Bosh

After #5 many players are interchangable. This being said, having a top 5 player doesn't mean anything unless you have the right role players.
One other point: Can you imagine if Orlando hadn't given all that money to Lewis? They would have been in a great position to make a bid for Lebron. Dwight and Lebron together? Unbeatable.

by VelociRaptor on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Good Point about Lewis, but I would still have Chris Paul and Dwight Howard above Nash at this point, bumping everyone down a few. I'm sure I'll get flak for that perhaps, but if I could have the choice of adding Nash, Paul or Howard for nothing, I'm not taking Nash...

by The Jerk on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I think that top 5 list is reall off.

CP3 the runner up for MVP, Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan rank better than Bosh, Nash and Mello.

You could even make the argument that guys like Dirk, Boozer, Deron Williams, Yao and TMAC are ahead of Bosh.

He is a great player but he is not a top 5 player in the league. Top 15 would sound a bit more accurate in my opinion.

I really agree with the point made about over paying for Rashard Lewis. That move was considered foolish before the season even started....with the emergence of Hedo and the lack of any power forward on that team the move looks even dumber.

However I think the raptors are in a good position. They are set with depth and at 2 of the starting 5 positions. If they want to compete for a championship they will have to upgrade the sg, sf spot for sure and maybe the center spot depending on Jermaine's health.

The only way you can get away with having lesser caliber players in your starting lineup is if you have two franchise talents such as:

Jordan and Pippan
Shaq and Kobe
Shaq and Wade
KG and Pierce
Duncan and Parker

Although I wouldn't consider Parker a franchise talent having Manu really makes up for it.

by wtf on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Man nother great article hq. Lots of food for thought as they say and it makes you think about the rappies long term afgter j o and cb4 expire moneywise. Hopefully both can play together first of all and both can complement each other. If so, add in jose and then like you said, the legoman can tinker with the rest until he gets the right fit. Read today in the national post that moon is heading down to vegas to work out with oneal and other raptors so it sounds like everyones pumped. Why is it only Aug 1?????? Oh well...keep up entertained hq!

by fronlongrange on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

What I think this article demonstrates is that the draft is everything. You need to keep your picks (it seems that it's almost never worth including a first rounder in a trade), and sometimes you need to draft the best NCAA or Euro player available instead of a "potential talent".

You could argue that Toronto had an extended rebuilding cycle because our GMs did stupid things like including a first round pick in the Lamond Murray trade and wasting our first round picks on players like Araujo, Joey Graham, Chris Jeffries, Michael Bradley, and to a lesser extent Bargnani.

Those draft blunders left the team with was a bunch of untradeable assets, so pulling off a Shaq- or Garnett-level trade is impossible.

by BC on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Franchise, Howland,
You guys do an amazing job of keeping a blog interesting when nothing is really happening out there. Impressive!

As for the Raps, do you think anyone is really overpaid for what they do?
Rasho was, though you had to love the guy. JO is just because his contract is so large he'd have to win 3 MVP's in the next 2 years to earn it. But, if he is healthy, he could really take the focal point of the team away from Bosh! Any chance of the two of them not working out? With Pierce and Garnett or Kobe and Shaq you had 2 stars who played different games. Bosh and JO sort of duplicate each other. I don't know if that is as good a thing as teaming Bosh up with a 20 million dollar wingman.

Anyway, to complete a thought about dollar values, you have to think Moon is the best player on the team relative to his salary. The only other guy who may be overpaid is Kapono. But if he gets a lot of shots in the offence this year and hits at the same percentage, he'll be underpaid!

The one thing I don't like is that we have not really been able to draft any star quality. Our one low pick was Bargnani, who we have to see for a few more years before we pass judgement on as to whether he is worth the money. Championship teams need to get performances that are way above their salaries. I think of Roy in Portland as being one of those guys who are going to give you a lot more than the dollar value they take. Once he gets a max contract, he may no longer be worth it and he'll be harder to support with stars due to him soaking up the cap room. Interesting article.

by EaseMyPain on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

22 million dollars for doing anything is overpaid.

You really could get four good players at 5.5 mil each. (2 at 11 mil, etc.)

Hence the simplicity of the article condensed into one drunken summary.

by DayOner on Aug 1, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

You have to wonder if Arenas' negotiations are a sign of things to come. Although my numbers may be off, he basically said, there's nothing he can do for his family with $120 mil that he can't do with 110 mil and to me that shows more than anything that he really is all about winning. To me, it's not the team's fault when a player will only come back if he is overpaid. Even Bosh, when he signed for max money, it showed he didn't really care if the team has enough money to build around him, even a mil or two off per year, as we saw this year, can make a huge difference.

by axl on Aug 2, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Great article as all ways franchise.

What it all comes down to is bad conrtacts.

How many do you have?
And how bad are they?

Lets look at Clevland for example: There payroll is just a tad under 87 million for next season. Lebron gets 14.4 of it leaving about just over 72 million bucks to build the rest of the Cavs.

Let's ponder that you have Lebron and 72 million to spend on players to fill out your roster (how bad would we all like that job)

Currently the Cavs have the following contracts in order at the top excluding Lebrons:
Ben Wallace at 14.5
Wally at almost13.8
Big Z 10.8
Eric Snow 7.3

Lets take Z out of there for a second because his contract is not a joke like the rest of these 3, you have Wallace who is clearly one of the most overpaid players in the NBA, Wally at 14 which is clearly another awful contract and Eric Snow at 7 million which is pretty bad as well. Sure all these contracts were not given out by the Cavs I do realize this. I also realize they traded away Larry Huges bad contract to get some contracts that were as bad or most likely worse,

35.6 Million on Wallace, Wally and Eric Snow.

Wow the amazing thing is that this team competes because of Lebron despite this waste of almost 40 percent of there team salaries on these 3.

I forget Damon Jones makes 4.7 million as well. yikes

What is my point?

Bad contracts kill you. They are clearly hard to trade and cut down on your ability to make free agent moves as well because your most likely capped if you have one or more bad contracts.

Clevland is not alone (see NY among others)

Even Portland is going to pay 28.4 mil to Steve Francias and Lafrenz this year to do nothing.

Now lets take a look at the world Champs salaries:
Garnett/Pierce/allen use up 60 of there 77 million.

Note Gartnett goes form 24 mil this year to 16.4 next year.

the test of the roster as it is now is Perkins, Scalabrine,House, Allen, Powe, Rondo, Big baby between these 6 make a combined 11.1 million (yes they will still use there midlevel to replace Posey)

Clearly much more wisely spent then Clevland.

Paul Pierce makes more then Lebron if they were to swap teams how good would Boston be (they may never loose a game again) and Clevland would be a lottery team with Pierce (most likely in the East next year)

Bad contracts is the reason.

I think going forward if i were a GM i would try to get 3 super stars a PG/A WING/A BIG pay them about 50-55 million and fill out my roster with young cheaper players and a few older vets who don't command big dollars

We all know how many players are out there in 2 years on the free agent list maybe teams will try to duplicate Boston and go big 3 and role players, I hope the Raps do.

Speaking of those Raps are salaries are pretty good

Excluding JO which expires at a good time at least. Other than that everyone is where they should be at maybe Kapono and Andrea slightly overpaid but with better seasons this year as wxpected they should be right where they are.

For all these guys who rip BC should look around at nba contracts and realize our house is in order and in good shape and sure we have some questions and guys need to step up (AP, Kapono, Moon, Andrea, Joey)
If they do we will contend for a title if they don't there numbers make them all tradeable (maybe not Oneal)
I bet Cavs fans wish the same.

Go Raps

by raptorize blogmaster shayne on Aug 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

As for the top 5 Bosh is not in yet (nor the top 10 for that matter)

However the Pistons won a title with a solid starting 5 and not top 15 player on there squad so its possible but not likely.

My top 5 as of today
1. Lebron/Kobe (tie)
I know its the easy way out
3. CP3
4. Duncan
5. Howard
6. KG
7. Wade
8,9 Amare/Nash
10 Pierce

Bosh, Carmello and Dirk top 20 but not top 10 there are a ton of good players left off this list but they are a ton of superstars in the NBA

by raptorize blog master shayne on Aug 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

The attitude of "what else are you supposed to do" has a few things going in its favour.

Ticket Sales: having a marquee player makes marketing easier, especially when your fanbase doesn't have a history of unwavering support.

Recruiting: Having a star/psuedostar helps a team both attract new talent and keep the talent it already has.

Cap Rules: If you are over the soft cap, like most teams, you only have two choices.

You can go up to the luxury tax threshold to resign your own free agent.

You can pass, and either
-rebuild
-trade for a star
-rearrange the chess pieces in such a way that you can get yourself significantly under the cap some point in the near future.

The first and third options usually lead to a decline in team performance. Trades are rare since its so hard to find a match between buyers and sellers.

Limited Window: This point applies more to the overpriced Rashard Lewis signing. When a team has available cap space they are often times in a "use it or lose it" situation. This especially rings true when they have restricted free agents, who when resigned will wipe out all the space under the soft cap.

Unfortunately, resigning a team's key player is the easiest and safest way out. I wonder what the stats are on how many GMs who start a rebuilding plan survive long enough to see it pay off in a playoff spot?

by yardly on Aug 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

FUN STAT OF THE DAY:
We all know today's Kris Humphries the bench player extraordinaire.... but did you know his stats from Minnesota in his draft year?

21.7ppg 10.1rpg .742ftp .340 3ptp

with highs of 32points vs Virginia and 28points vs Michigan State

Wow.... I wouldn't have guessed it.

by vulcanoboy on Aug 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Humph stats continued....

OOoooops!! I missed a 36pt game against Indiana! He scored HALF the teams points in that game!!

http://www.gophersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=38665&SPID=3302&DB_OEM_ID=8400&ATCLID=271525

It makes me appreciate our bench just a little bit more now.

by vulcanoboy on Aug 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

What makes those stats even more impressive is that he did that as a freshman not as a senior.

He was actually at one point considering jumping to the NBA out of highschool but decided to go to college....he choose Sota over Duke because he wanted to stay close to home.

by wtf on Aug 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions