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Tip-In, Toronto Raptors Post-Game: Shadiness in ATL

Whether in Sacto or ATL, Bibby steps up in crunch time...

Whether in Sacto or ATL, Bibby steps up in crunch time...

Lacing Them Up –

What the hell is going on in Atlanta? Is there some secret anti-TJ campaign we need to know about?

First the Hawks forget to count one of TJ’s baskets in a game late last season.

Then the hard foul on Ford that put him out for a good chunk of this season.

Now last night, Mr. Ford makes what seems to be the game-winning basket on a beautifully drawn-up play by Sam Mitchell, only for it be called back upon video replay.

And that’s not even getting into the whole "replay the final piece of the game" debacle against the Miami Heat earlier in the season.

Yes, Toronto should have won this game.

However protests such as the one I’m guessing the Raptors will submit to the league office today are rarely accepted. Yes, CLEARLY the clock started on the inbounds play PRIOR to Ford receiving the ball, as you can see from this ESPN clip, not to mention the original call on the court by the referees was that the basket was good. But it’s such a small grey area as to whether Ford got the shot off even IF the time had started correctly (we’re talking tenths of seconds here) that I don’t think the final result will be different after league review.

For now that call is indeed in the hands of other parties.

And regardless of the decision with regard to TJ’s final fourth quarter basket, there was no way Toronto should have let the game come down to such a play.

Toronto had a 15 point lead with 11 minutes left in the game. And even at the 10 minute mark they were still up by 11 with Leo Rautins cautioning the Raptors to step up their aggression.

However that was not the case and once again, Toronto let one slip away.

A Numbers Game – 54 per cent.

This is the percentage of 3-pointers attempted that Atlanta made last night. Simply put, Toronto’s 3-point and transition defense was horrific. It made for an entertaining game, but I can’t count the number of open looks Atlanta got from beyond the arc either due to late rotations, or missed assignments. This was especially true in transition with Mike Bibby and others acting as the trailer on fast break plays, and knocking down open looks from long range.

On the season, the Hawks are shooting only about 35 per cent from 3, good for a middle of the road ranking among the 30 NBA teams. Had Toronto been able to keep Atlanta’s deep shooting percentage down around their average, this probably would have been a W for the Dinos.

The Turning Point –

The fourth quarter in this one was indeed the turning point. Toronto had just reeled off one of their best offensive quarters of the season in the third racking up 14 assists and looking to have things under control. However a lack of aggression, and mental error after error suddenly had Atlanta within three points in the game’s final seconds. Seriously, you could take your pick from seemingly un-clutch play after un-clutch play such as Carlos Delfino being called for offensive cylinder interference with eight minutes left, Anthony Parker stepping out of bounds with 6:25 left, a terrible offensive set with 50 seconds left, and not one, but two terrible offensive rebounds given up in the game’s final seconds.

The bottom line is that if you give an opposing team enough chances to win, eventually they will take advantage. Toronto did just that by squandering offensive sets late in the game (they were outscored 27 to 16 in the final quarter), failing to grab key rebounds (they were out-rebounded 47 to 37 overall) and making curious decisions defensively in overtime. Soon guys like Josh Smith and Al Horford started making big shots to put this one out of reach.

Temperature Check –

Hot – Point guard play. The defense wasn’t quite there still but last night’s 1-2 punch from this position was I’m sure what Bryan Colangelo had envisioned to start the season. Ford played more of a scoring role, ducking and weaving through traffic while Jose was the facilitator off the bench. Together the two combined for an incredible 26 points and 23 assists.

Ford takes a bit of heat from me this morning however for not fouling Bibby before his game-tying 3 attempt, but Sam Mitchell defended Ford post-game stating that Ford felt he was being duped into fouling during the shot. Whichever the case, Ford should have done a better job finding Bibby in the first place during that sequence.

Hot – Rasho Nesterovic. What’s next, Rasho playing point guard? After hitting his first regular season 3 last night to go along with 21 points on nine of 13 shooting, I’m not sure there’s anything this guy can’t do. Maybe he should take a turn at point guard?

Hot – Andrea Bargnani. This is the Andrea I expected this season. 21 minutes of action off the bench, 17 points and three rebounds, seven of 12 shooting and three 3’s. A few more boards would be nice but realistically, if I could have charted the numbers I thought we’d see from Bargs this year, they would have been pretty close to those of last night; maybe an extra rebound, block or assist or two, but pretty much that offensive threat off the pine. If he can keep this up into the playoffs, it adds a completely new dimension to the club.

Hot – Mike Bibby. Bibby’s acquisition was met with mixed reviews until the Hawks’ recent winning streak but last night you got a clear picture of why he’s now so important to this team. I felt that he gave his club a serious dose of the leadership it’s been lacking in recent years, took over in crunch time ala Sacramento, and consistently made good decisions with the basketball resulting in 26 points and 12 assists. Atlanta is still basically playing six guys (Zaza Pachulia made it off the bench for 16 minutes and Acie Law played four) but Bibby is really helping this team mesh. They’re no match for Boston at present, but with some bench help over the off-season, this is a club that could make some noise next year.

Lukewarm – Chris Bosh. The box score for the game has Bosh finishing with 24 points. However few of these came with the game on the line (he even blew an open lay-up) and five rebounds just isn’t going to get the job done. TJ Ford and Rasho Nesterovic stood out as the best players on the court last night and considering that CB4 is the franchise player, he needs to be more aggressive in crunch time.

The Raptors need to clean things up before taking on Gerald Wallace and the Cats...

The Raptors need to clean things up before taking on Gerald Wallace and the Cats...

Moving On –

How ironic would it be if this game ends up deciding Toronto’s playoff seeding?

With their loss last night, the Wizards, Raptors and 76ers are all tied for fifth and with only seven games left, this one could play a pivotal role in who gets to play Orlando, and who gets to take on Detroit.

And really, the interesting thing for me in this loss was that to the viewer, it was a perfect example of everything that is good and bad about this team currently.

Toronto got any shot it wanted, the ball movement was crisp, and there wasn’t a much prettier offensive display all season.

However the team got out-rebounded, especially at key points in the game, gave up way too many open perimeter shots, lacked poise down the stretch, and made some egregious mental errors. We’ve already discussed a bunch of them but how about Toronto being in the bonus with over seven minutes left and not getting to the free throw line once? That sort of thing is what this team has been guilty of all season, just not recognizing or reacting to various basketball situations.

In overtime another example of this was Carlos Delfino doubling up on Joe Johnson who was posting up TJ Ford. This resulted in two straight open looks on the perimeter, one of which was made and this too had me shaking my head. Johnson was far enough out that he wouldn’t have been able to turn and lay it in…and furthermore JJ hadn’t backed Ford down in that manner all night. Yes he has a size advantage, but Carlos, until Ford actually gets beat on the play, why would you leave your man to double?

It’s loss number 37 in any event and now the Raptors need to turn around for a rematch against a Bobcat team that nearly pulled one over on them Monday night. All of the issues that were magnified in this game need to be addressed before then and especially before the playoffs start.

As one of our readers noted, forget playing Orlando, can this team beat Miami in a series at this rate?

All I can say is that this summer, when BC is looking at attracting free agents, I hope he has a copy of this tape for reference.

Either that, or a guarantee that Ottawa will be going forward with this idea.

FRANCHISE

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If .5 is not long enough to grab the bal and drop it in, why even play .5? Before review, the rule was, they allowed a catch and shoot and with .3 a tip.

People looking at the tape say it should have been .8 left after bibby's shot. That play was just one of a series of suspect calls by the refs.

by axl on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Great comments, Franchise. Great site - keep it up guys!
I believe the post-season is always a normal continuation of the post All-Star regular season therefore it will be one and done for the Raps regardless of the opponent.
This off-season the Raps brass has a chance to redemption. If they screw up the same as last summer then this management team is overrated and overpaid. I have the feeling that throughout the season business decisions came before b-ball decisions and the icing on the cake was the panic that gripped the organization with 12 games left in the season. In history there is a saying that everything that happened it should have happened: the same for our Raps, even the clock mess in the last game - we just didn't deserve to win for reasons related to this game but also to the whole season.
This season should have been a 50 wins season in the East. I blame the mgmt and the coaching for not happening. The players tried their best however they were not put in a position to succeed.
Franchise and Howland, you have my respects for creating and hosting this site.

by Daniel on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I said this in the comments section of your last story, but for me the turning point was not the 4th quarter, but the turnover by tj leading to the 17 point lead dipping to 11 at the end of the third.

this game aged me at least 5 years...

by smbm on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

A number of costly turnovers ended this game for the Raptors. If butterfingers Jamario would of grabbed the last rebound with two hands the game could of been over. As a result, provide Bibby with a chance to tie with the 3. If Delfino had a chance to grab that offensive rebound to seal the game, again the game would of been over but they failed to do so.

Nonetheless, Franchise you're completely right. This game should of never come down to the wire. Up by 17 in the beginning of the 4th to allow the Hawks to creep back into it... completely unacceptable. They choked big time... they keep this up and they'll definitely get sweeped in the first round.

by diesel on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Quick question,

which free-agents are coming on the market in the offseason that will help the Raps address their problems?

by rishi on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Loving the "aged by 5 years" commentsmbm, me too. Couldnt believe they blew yet another lead. From your list yesterday Franchise id put this in place of that Portland loss. And seriously, the league needs to wonder what is going on in atlanta.

by fromlongrange on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

bargnani played well, so where'd he go in the later stages? why was he nailed to the bench?

by benjibopper on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

TJ Ford went from hero to goat in one play with Bibbys tying 3pt, the only play that they could not allow. Think about that, he is the best 3pt shooter on Atlanta, hitting 4/9 till then. Ford leaves the only player near his size, alone for an inbound pass, then suddenly runs to him and waves as he makes the tying shot. What a useless brain cramp play, the worst and final among many in the 4th. Hope they trade him and bring in a back-up for Jose who is taller and can defend. As an aside what happend to the aggressive play that Bosh called for in the 4th, with the Hawks in the penalty???
Bosh needs to practice what he preaches!!!

by Johnn19 on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Bad teams get bad calls. If this was Detroit, they would have been up by twenty and the starters would have been napping for the last 0.5 seconds.

"Robbed?" Definitely. But does this game (or any this season) really matter in the bigger picture? Nope.

Raps vs. Pistons: lose 4-0
Raps vs. Celtics: lose 4-0
Raps vs. Magic: lose 4-1
Raps vs. Cavs: lose 4-1

This season will not be judged by the playoffs, because the Raps have ZERO chance of moving on.

Is there anyone here who honestly believes that the Raps can beat any of the above four teams? I'd love to hear your argument.

by Aaron on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I do, I believe the Cavs and Magic are beatable if the Raps get their act together. This team seems to be a bit weakly minded and they tend to underachieve under pressure, but I think it also makes them great overachievers when noone expects much from them (see last year). So I woudn't rule out a first round convincing win if they manage to avoid matching up with the Pistons.

Does anyone else find it strange that Raps VP Gherardini is being linked to the GM job in Milwaukee?
http://torontosun.com/Sports/Basketball/2008/04/03/5180241-sun.html

by Sergi P on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Aaron: So you're a true fan?

by OneandDone on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Like I said yesterday, the Raptors have struggled significantly against teams with over .500 records. Sorry I don't have the exact number.

Why would the playoffs be any different?

They'd be in tough against the Wiz and Sixers if they had to play them too.

Great points HQ...the main wildcard in the playoffs is Bargnani, like you said.

Does not driving the lane with 7 minutes left (while in bonus ) fall on the players or coach? Or the GM if you wanna go one further.

by DayOner on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

DayOner,

As critical as I am of Smitch at times, I won't put the lack of driving to the basket on him. This one falls solely on the players. Bosh proved yesterday that he lacks that killer instinct...oh well!

Sorry Aaron, but the Magic don't scare me because we match up well against them. Without Bosh and with a selfish TJ (idiotic that night), they barely beat us. The Cavs haven't impressed much either lately (5 and 5 in their last 10). Both teams are beatable...taking us out in five games sounds a bit silly!

by Assistant GM on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Bosh cannot perform in crunch time if TJ Ford is going to go freelance. Last night Ford jitterbugged all over the overtime---he's quick and impressive but you've got to get the ball to Bosh, not look for your own shot. What's better? A TJ Ford jumper for two or a layup and a foul for Bosh? I'm getting pretty tired of seeing Ford call his own number--as spectacular as he is, I think Calderon has more control at crunch time.

by Andykat on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I'd still prefer to play Orlando than any other team, however I think the huge blow out win really skews our perception of that matchup.

The Raps are whom I thought they were. A slightly above average team, like last year. I keep hearing the arguement that the expectation for this team was so much higher because they got older, but I challenge anyone to find a previous team that got significantly better over one year because of experience (without adding important new pieces). Anyways, I had thought the Raps would win 43, and well.. I was hoping I was wrong but they are finishing exactly as thought.

At the end of the day, I'm still not worried about this year, we were ahead of schedule last year. However next year for me is make or break. What they get for Rasho will be huge & if BC can find another sleeper this summer.

FYI, here are this year's results against potential playoff opponents:
Mar 26 DET W 89-82
Mar 21 @ CLE L 83-90
Mar 4 @ ORL L 87-102
Feb 20 ORL W 127-110
Jan 30 WAS W 122-83
Jan 29 @ WAS L 104-108
Jan 23 @ BOS W 114-112
Jan 15 @ DET L 89-103
Jan 6 CLE L 90-93
Jan 4 DET L 85-101
Dec 16 BOS L 77-90
Dec 7 @ BOS L 84-112
Dec 1 @ WAS L 97-101
Nov 30 CLE W 91-82
Nov 24 @ CLE L 108-111
Nov 7 ORL L 96-105
Nov 4 BOS L 95-98

by ustation on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Another trip to Atlanta, another Scoring-gate. This team should be sanctioned severely. On another note, please God or please, let us have ESPN in Canada! It would be great to not have to watch the Canadian bush-league sports channels with their 80% Hockey coverage!

by MAS on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

MAS

It was the ref who started the clock not atlanta officials

by Davl on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I love this league and hate to even mention it, but calls like the one at the end of last nights game make me wonder how many Tim Donaghys are out there. Everyone at home saw the replay.....we trash The Score?s coverage but is it possible that games are decided by means of even worse coverage?? If not than why did we all instantly pick up on the clock blunder, while the officials failed to after 5 minutes of studying the replay. Where there is smoke.......

by Ttocs on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Yes, one and done, I am a true fan, just not a deluded one.

Why does negativity have to equate with "not being a true fan"? The Raps have shown me nothing this year and (be honest with yourselves, people) are a massive disappointment.

Thanks for the list, ustation: so, 5-12 against those four teams. I also wouldn't really count any win over the Pistons since they sleepwalk their way to 55 wins, and then turn it on in the playoffs.
-------
I think the Raptors are a bad basketball team. There you have it. I hope they get better by 2009-10 (I stick with my prediction that next year will be worse than this one without MAJOR changes), but if you're not going to contend for a championship, than you're just one of the 17 bad teams in this league. (I believe Mr. Barkley and I are on the same page on this one.)

Here is what I measure my ranking of the Raptors as a bad team: baseball.

In MLB (the only league that rewards success rather than mediocrity) 8 teams make the playoffs. Are the Raps anywhere near the top 8 in the NBA? Nope. What about in the Eastern Conference? Nope. The Cavs-Raps comparison is a fair one, but LeBron put that team on his back last year and drove them to the finals. Could Bosh do that? Ford? No way in hell.

Jeez, I don't want to be so negative all the time, but I'm just waiting for this franchise to show me something after 13 seasons!!!

by Aaron on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Ok here's my 2 cents..

I'm not anti-negativity, but I am anti extremistism.

Should have heard me pre RapHQ days with Grunwald/Babcock and Lenny Wilkens days. We would have given a left arm to be in this same position today.

Am I satisfied that the Raps aren't a contender? No. However, these instant gratification freaks, who expects a Lotto pick winner to turn into a contender over night is as ludicrous as those who thought that the Raps had a legit chance of winning a championship this year.

Boy, and if you're a Leaf fan, are you going to learn that the HARD way.

How many teams have turned it around overnight? Boston? Unless you take extreme measures and unless MLSE is willing to go into a tax situation, it's not going to happen. It's going to be small gains. 2 steps forward 1 step back. And if you can't accept that ride, well, get on the Knicks bandwagon on something.

This team, is pointing in the right direction. Will it get to be a contender? I don't know. How long am I willing to wait? My time table is giving BC 4 years to prove something. Is Smitch THAT coach? Who knows, but this isn't the team that will demonstrate to me if he's THE one.

For me personally, that's why I think all of these conversations about TJ vs JC, the performance of Kappono, Delfino, Rasho, Parker is inconsequential. They're stepping stones, gap fillers until real moves can be made.

Next year however, my dial is turned up a notch-- again, IMHO that Rasho deal means everything! (my apologies for the rant.. bad day)

by ustation on Apr 3, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

ustation:

I believe we are mostly on the same page. I wholeheartedly agree that the Delfinos, Kaponos, Fords etc. are players that have nothing to do with this team and thus should not be a focus of a Raptors fan's concerns.

Perhaps I'm "extremist," but my problem is I don't see much potential anywhere on the roster. If we are building towards a top 3 team in the Eastern conference, where are we going to get that talent. I don't think it's there from within.

So, with that said, I return to ustations' comment that quick fixes are rare. I agree 100%, but if our young players have topped out (Bosh, Ford) or will always be mediocre (Moon, Bargnani, Graham etc.), then a quick fix is the only thing that can make this team a legitimate contender. That's what concerns me.

Perhaps Colangelo can pull off a miracle in the next two years, but I'm more skeptical now that I was when he came in.

I would like to pose a question for all the readers out there (I'll re-post this in the Bobcats preview article since this thread will be null and void soon):

What players on the current Raptors team will be on the theoretical 2011-12 championship team we've all been dreaming of?

My answer(s): Bosh. Perhaps Calderon and Parker as 15-20 mpg back-ups, no one else even on the roster.

by Aaron on Apr 4, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Bosh is an all-star, Moon is one of the best rookies in the L (even if he is 27, he will likely improve a lot in the next 2-3 years), Calderone was discussed seriously as a should-have-been all-star, and Bargnani could still turn into something special. So, while I agree that next year could and should see some major roster changes by the trade deadline, I don't think we are completely lacking a base on which to build.

by benjibopper on Apr 4, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I can't help but laugh when people declare that Bosh has "topped out". Even Ford, for that matter. I rip Ford mercilessly at every opportunity, and even I have to admit that his best years (IF healthy) are ahead of him.

Declaring Bargnani to be mediocre also makes me chuckle. Players rarely top out or regress at 23 years old. Sure, Bargs has been a disappointment this year, but to write him off completely at this juncture is a knee-jerk reaction, not a rational analysis.

Aaron: Since you seem to be a baseball fan, let me remind you this: Not long ago were the "pundits" were prognosticating that Rios would never hit more than 10-12 homers.

But you do bring up a valid point. Is the Raptor core strong enough to contend for a championship? I think that depends immensely on Bargnani. And if you are right that he will never be anything more than a mediocre player, then some major changes will have to occur for this team to succeed.

by SonicSuper on Apr 4, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

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