3 in the Key – Toronto Raptors Playoff Preview vs. Magic

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT in 3 in the Key

The Raptors preparation last match left Keith Bogans feeling like he was back at KU...

Are the Toronto Raptors dead in the water?

It’s funny, but after their game one loss, that was the main tone around the work water coolers when discussing the Dinos.

And it’s hard for me to go against this feeling in many ways, mostly because I picked the Magic to win this series in five games.

However a bad loss to start a series shouldn’t mean the end of the world. After being upset by the 76ers on Sunday night, I doubt Detroit feels that they are down for the count. And Toronto, for all their defensive deficiencies, still can put points on the board and create mismatches in several areas – all things that can get them back in this series.

The key though is for them to actually go out and do it.

For all the pre and post-game talk about "adjusting to this," and "doing more of this," the bottom line is that Raptors’ fans have witnessed a team that hasn’t performed up to their abilities over the past two months. The club has been more of one resembling that last sliver of soap in the shower; a team swirling aimlessly and threatening to go down the drain at any minute.

It’s one thing to be in a series and simply be over-matched (as is the current situation facing the Atlanta Hawks versus the Boston Celtics.)

It’s entirely another to simply not meet your opponent head-on with a similar level of preparedness and competitive spirit.

And I think that’s what really worries me more than anything else in this series.

Here we have two very similar teams; both built on a dominant inside presence flanked by some of the best long-range shooters in the league.

However one team came out and shot the ball like they WERE the best shooters in the league, the other, Toronto, seemed to be learning what a basketball was for the first time.

Be it lack of confidence or lack of preparation, the Raptors looked like they could use a hearty dose of both on Sunday. If the Orlando Magic represented the kids who took the CFA prep class all year, the Raptors were much more like my former roommate the Big Chill, doing tequila shots at a party the night before his exam.

Don’t get me wrong, it was a fun party.

But you can’t expect to pass the test or make it past the first round if you’re not prepared and confident that you know your stuff.

So here’s my Sam Mitchell rant.

As fans, it should really be frustrating that our club looks to be the least-prepared of all the teams in the playoffs. That’s what the entire season was for, preparing for this stage of the NBA schedule. Instead we’re left with a club that has some nice pieces, but that after 83 games, still hasn’t figured out how to make them work cohesively. And a large chunk of the blame for this "non-cohesion" has to fall in the lap of Sam Mitchell.

Regardless of changing line-ups at the last minute, something that may not have been such a "last minute move" one of our reader’s noted via Eric Smith’s blog, Mitchell just isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence based on his team’s play. I can’t think of a single occasion this year when he designed an effective counter to something the other team is doing.

Contrast that with Mo Cheeks, who matter-of-factly stated that his 76ers planned to guard Rasheed Wallace with Samuel Dalembert, enticing the Pistons to focus on that mismatch. Sheed got his, but it took the rest of the Pistons out of rhythm. Detroit isn’t a team that has one single player who can break you down off the bounce, they rely on a cohesive starting five that executes their offence through a series of cuts, rotations and ball movements. With the ball going into the post and Rasheed trying to take advantage of the mismatch, that movement stopped. Stats don’t lie and if you want to see just how effective Mo Cheeks’ game-plan was, check the shooting percentages for the rest of the Pistons starting five.

Of course Detroit will make adjustments for game two but the point here is that I’ve yet to see Mitchell pour the proverbial salt on his opponents' exposed wounds. And considering how similar Toronto and Orlando are in terms of style of play, it makes it that much more crucial for Sam to do a better job of exposing Orlando’s weaknesses than Orlando does of exposing those of his own club.

But this doesn’t all fall on Mitchell. I liked the move to put Andrea on Hedo (although like Howland said post-game, it probably should have come in the first quarter instead of suddenly sitting Moon on the bench to start the game) and I still do for the rest of the series. However Bargnani has to show that he’s more of an offensive threat than Jamario Moon tonight and that has nothing to do with Sam. I think I’d prefer to have Toronto go big at the 3, 4 and 5 positions to help out against Dwight but besides getting the correct match-ups, this team needs to show a lot more confidence in its own abilities.

The problem is, that lack of confidence has been present for almost two months now, and it’s extremely hard from a psychological stand-point to just turn up the confidence level at this point in time...especially if you’re rolling into the playoffs having beaten only lottery bound teams and having lost many more games than you’ve won over the past while.

So here are my three keys for tonight, starting with the confidence issue:

1) Back to Square One. The word post-practice yesterday was that the Raptors spent a good deal of time working on some of the on-court issues they failed to deal with in Sunday afternoon’s match. I’m hoping though that the team spent a good deal of time in the video room as well; not looking solely at footage from recent matches versus the Magic though, but looking at some of the great moments from the team, this season and last. This team had a winning mentality last year, and somehow they need to recapture that feeling. Really, the team is not that much different in terms of personnel this season so Sam Mitchell and co. need to press upon the players just how good they can be. Show some key winning moments at the end of close games, show some dunks, blocked shots, forced shot clock violations due to tough D and get this team inspired to perform.

This also means trying to forget this past season and Game 1 and start fresh. Do what you do best both as individuals and as a team! That means TJ getting into the paint and creating havoc with his herky-jerky style, Bosh burning defenders for not guarding him away from the basket, Jose turning the corner to hit open shots, attack the rim or find open shooters, Jason Kapono coming off of screens for open looks, etc, etc. Orlando is not unbeatable, Toronto just needs to remember how potent they can be.

Do the Raptors need a team of sports psychologists on staff right now?

2) CB4 Time. The next key tonight for me is Chris Bosh. Bosh played hard on Sunday, and was perfect from the free-throw line, but he needs to take things to another level tonight. Sam Mitchell and his staff need to get Bosh in better positions to score the ball but Bosh needs to put this club on his shoulders right now. (Especially since he's taken back the blame he seemed to lay on Mitchell and his staff.) He’s by far the team’s best player, and a superior performance could set the tone for the rest of the Raptors. You saw Lebron James do it again last night if you watched game two of the Cavs-Wizards series, and Tim Duncan, Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Steve Nash have all done the same thing recently. Even the much-maligned Tracy McGrady did all he could to try and draw his Rockets even with the Jazz last night. Bosh hasn’t shown that he can take over games in the post-season yet and tonight would be a great time to start.

3) Play Smart. One of the most infuriating things about this Toronto Raptors club is their decision making at times. Whether it’s unnecessary double-teams, lack of understanding of in-game situations, or simply not following the scouting report when guarding certain players, Toronto just doesn’t always get it. Viewers saw far too many examples of this again on Sunday and I’m sure these aren’t things that Sam Mitchell has never mentioned in practice. So let’s start seeing some focus, especially on the defensive end! If Toronto can keep Jameer Nelson on the perimeter shooting jumpers instead of in the paint finding open shooters, that’s a huge first step. And keeping Hedo in a shooting role instead of a facilitator is a big step two. Some board-work on Howard as step three would be nice but even some smart play in those first two areas will go a long way towards a win.

It’s Game 2 tonight, Magic versus Raptors and nope, they ain't dead yet.

But we’ll find out in about 10 hours whether the 06-07 Raptors showed up, or if this year’s version is still in the driver’s seat…

FRANCHISE

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Comments

Again a good job Franchise,I would like to see the series go at least 6.
I think the root of the problem is internal,the long face of T.J. the pouting is still there...say what you want,the Magic guards blew by him God !!! Kapono played better defence.
Wow Sam just discovered that he has a three point shooter on the team !!!!
My gut tells me that B.C. was instrumental in Bargs starting,and Kapono getting some burn.
Morons,lets see, lets have Bargs play back to the basket all f... year ,now that the playoffs are here shoot the three.
I know Bargs has been a disapointment,but I truly feel that he is mentally broken down....and I still feel that Smitchs comment way back when "Oh yea I went 2 weeks without speaking to him...jerk.
Head games might work on some people not everyone.
Sam has always been the most pleasant coach to interview !!!but lately if looks can kill,he would of killed a few already.
I agree lets bring back the 00/07 Raps....or at least their desire .

by d279 on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

First Sam tries to go big. Now he wants to go small?

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/417014

Reeks of desperation to me.

If as the article suggets that they are going to create looks for the shooters by going small shouldn't Jose start? Pick and roll the Magic into submission.

by Clawed on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Muscle memory. Is the brain a muscle?
The point I’m trying to make is that when a team finishes a regular season strong going into the playoff you instinctively know what is expect of yourself and your floor mates. There’s no doubt or indecision. Detroit KNOW what is expected of themselves because it’s a memory honed by successive playoff runs.
A young Raps must draw upon regular season experiences for hard won successes to build that instinctive frame of mind. What? Are the Raptor to rely watching film to bring back memories from nearly 3 months ago?
It should be an interesting exercise because it never worked for me.

by OldSchool on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

My God does this small lineup mean Rasho sitting????Desperation written all over it if true! Bosh and AB cannot guard DH

by Davl on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

FRANCHISE THAT IS PERFECT...EVERY think of coaching..lol..If the Raps can just read some of your post we would beat Orlando 4-1 but since they probably do not we will be Orlando 4-3. The season is not lost and I am sure the Raps will do a much better job tonight on Jameer Nelson. I like him in College was a little dissappointed when he was not selected in the top 10 but he is no match for Jose and TJ. Our guards need to pick up their game and just take it to Orlando. With Rasheed Lewis so close to Bosh all Bosh need to do is get him into foul trouble by bringing up the ball through his arms the way Kobe and Lebron does if you are too close to them...I see we steal a game tonight and make a series out of it...Raps4Life

by Raps4Life on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Great read as usual. Is tonight do or die? TO has looked BIG TIME unpreprared, even in the last chunk of the season. Anyone think that if Sam loses 4 straight he gets the heave???

by fromlongrange on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

If they could just shoot the ball... C'mon raps, get hot.

by axl on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

If the Raps lose Smitch is gone in my books.

by headgame on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Clawed - thanks for posting that link, has me thinking all afternoon. I'm not sure the small-ball idea is going to work considering how tough it is for Toronto to rebound the ball NORMALLY but I do like that Mitchell is talking some strategy for once and trying to counter some of the things the Magic did on Sunday. The key if Toronto goes small will be Howard. If the Raps are forced to start doubling him down low, that opens up the door for another 9 for 11 shooting display from open wings. I'm starting to think that maybe if the Raps go small, instead of worrying about doubling, someone besides Bosh should just look to foul Howard whenever he starts his move. Make him beat you again at the free-throw line.

by Franchise on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Great read as usual Franchise.

Heading into tonight's game I am getting my optimism amped up. Things have to be better this time around. I can't see Dwight being any better and I doubt Jameer or Mo Evans play that well again for the rest of the series. As for the Raps, Bosh should be better and so should TJ, Jose, Delfino and Bargs - maybe even Moon. So if even a portion of that comes true, we 'should' be able to steal a win.

I also want to agree with CB4. Why are we giving up on things before we even try to make them work? Why do we haev to go small to get shooters open? Why don't we just swing the ball?

We always seem to be reacting to the other teams threats rather than making the other team react. We have all been worrying about guarding Hedo, but can Hedo cover Moon? Might he pick up a few fouls trying? On the bench we don't have to guard him. I know we can't rely on Moon drawing fouls, but my point is that it would be nice to make the Magic adjust to us, WE are the offensive juggernaut!

Go Raps Go

by Robert Archibald on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I agree with you Franchise on fouling DH. Everybody should just stay home with there man and if DH gets the ball give him a hard foul, not on a dunk though..no way he is going to shoot 9-11 again from the stripes. Orlando has there lights out game like one writer mention its now our turn to turn the tables. I have a good feeling about tonight and the next 2 games. Raps will be going back to Orlando up 3-1. Raps4Life

by Raps4Life on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

is it just me or does anybody else expect the exact same approach - no changes - to how the magic come off the opening tip??

they're going to launch as many 3's from as many places as possible in the shortest time possible.

now all this talk about a smaller line up won't take effect until at least 4 minutes into the game, considering sam already said he's going with the exact same line up to start things off.

so by that time, if the magic are hitting their 3's, who knows what this smaller crew could walk into.

either way, look for bargs to get going early with his 3 ball. I'm sure sam is hoping and praying for it more than a cute faced inmate needs the morning sun.

by papa on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Thank god they managed to make that comeback

Is it just me or has sam mitchell gone soft? He was never a great x's and o's kind of coach. However he brought an intensity and fire to the team. Now everytime I see him he's there with his head down, making excuses for his team, smiling on the sideline

what happened to the guy who would be jumping up and down screaming....what happened to the guy who wanted to kill horford...what happened to the guy who wanted to fight rafer....where did the intensity go?

Its hard to get a read on who should go and who should stay with this team....the obvious exception being Bosh. Sometimes Kopono makes it seem like he is a keeper other times you wonder why he got a 4 year deal. Delfino sometimes looks like he could score 15 a game and play 3 positions other times he makes it seem like he wasn't even worth the second round picks. Same things with TJ, Moon and Andrea....

Either way the offseason might be even more interesting than the post season

by wtf on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

sam: 'but guys, guys, we played sooooo good after the first...'

so I guess the book on the raps is: they're a fantastic team...after the first quarter. they're just so very good. after the first quarter.

heart breaking.

by papa on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I've got no problem with the loss,not happy about going down two and 0 but they left it on the court....

by d279 on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I've got no problem with the loss,not happy about going down two and 0 but they left it on the court....

by d279 on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

why in the world would bosh shoot a jumper in the last seconds with one point down. there was time to take it to the basket. and we call him a franchise player. arrrghh i want to freak so bad. i say trade bosh, hes not a player that can take us to the next level. and whats up with the first quarter struggles. im sick of this team. its over

by Over on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Over,yup you are right Bosh cant do it by himself....check Orlandos payroll...Oh!!! what about just Lewis ....we need to find some help for Chris...or it will be like Garnet in Minie (not to say that CB4 is KG)....you know what I mean ....

by d279 on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

i guess we do need more help. but the last play was horrible. i dont even think they came up with a play, cause we certainly did not execute it AT ALL. but you have to admit that bosh should have at least gone for a foul instead of trying to take a heroic shot that eventually failed. he needed to at least try to get contact, if the call wasnt there well at least he tried, but taking a shot over a dude like howard was pretty outragous and was obviously the wrong thing to do during the last dying minutes

by Over on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

We need a solid second 20 point guy at either SF or SG. This cannot be a one man show through Bosh, he was tanked in the second half.

We also need to drop T.J. Jose showed again tonight that he is the number one leader on the team. He, not Bosh, is our captain. On that end, the final play should have been his, not Bosh's. Bosh had nothing left down the stretch.

by graptors on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Guys,

I too agree that Bosh should have taken it to the hole. But after that no-call (once again) on Howard, Bosh knew he wasn't going to get the call. Why is it that an all star on any other team gets star treatment, but our all star, who happens to represent the only Canadian team in the league, gets nothing? I am proud of they way they played tonight. I just feel that we got the short end of the stick...again!

by Assistant GM on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I agree with graptors on this one. Bosh is a leader, in the sense that he has to be the one who leads by example – points, rebounds.

Jose, on the other hand, is like the pilot ... aka the captain.

Tough loss tonight. The reality is, we were one Bosh shot shy of going home 1 and 1.

And it sucks, that the 1st half was too much deja vu for my liking.

by RapthoseLeafs on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I think we are forgetting that Sam plays a large part in putting us in situations that lead us to eventually fail. 1-10 we are the better team based on talent. That is the reason why we competed tonight and our competing should not shadow the fact that mitchell was out coached once again. Unfortunately smitch once again failed to utilize 1st half timeouts when orlando started to surge with 4 dunks in a row right at the beginning of the game. He also failed to make the necessary adjustments during this stretch, thus ultimately leading this team to a hole that was near impossible to come out of 2 games in a row. I hope that our competitive spirit and our home crowd can overcome two squandered opportunities.

by Oyster Boy on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I knew a lot of people would complain about the no call on bosh, but the replay showed he wasn't fouled. It was a good non-call.

Disappointing loss, but I feel more confident after this game that the Raps can hold home court.

Kapono's on fire, Bosh played his heart out, and Bargs showed glimpses of being the X factor we need him to be. The series ain't over yet.

by SonicSuper on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

The Bosh critisism is undeserved to a certain extent. He is an allstar, listen to talk around the league even though he's being paid max money everyone wants him when he becomes a free agent.

However I believe he had 23 in the first half and only six in the second....could be because he was gased.

But upon further examination of the raptors roster like someone mentioned who do we have on this team that can help him? Orlando has three guys who have made the allstar teams, wiz have 2 (3 including gilbert), pistons have 4 and celtics have 3.

The raps have to become a good team before they can become a championship contender. It would be interesting to see how Bosh plays down the stretch of a game if he didn't have to carry the whole team on his back throughout the game.

TJ Ford is a cancer who is destorying this team slowly and painfully. I've said this a million times and I'll repeat it again....trade him for anything you can get...lots of teams want a pass first pg and he still has that rep....sign chris duhon as a backup.

Jamario Moon should spend all summer with Jason Kopono so he can learn how to hit a shot. The guys always open but he can still never get it to go down.

However now that the raps are retuning home I think they can win 2 games. If they do that I expect them to win the series still. I think the magic are a bit shaken by how they were unable to put the raptors away after building so many big leads.

If they lose either of these games there is no way they can come back from 3-1 in my opinion.

by wtf on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

wtf,

"However now that the raps are retuning home I think they can win 2 games. If they do that I expect them to win the series still. I think the magic are a bit shaken by how they were unable to put the raptors away after building so many big leads. "

I agree. Orlando can't be feeling too confident about this lead. They know that the Raps aren't going to blow every first quarter this series. It's only a matter of time.

SonicSuper,

The Raps are notorious for being called for touch fouls. Please don't tell me that it wasn't a foul...too much body on body contact (and he hit his arms while shooting). Leo even agreed after seeing it again.

by Assistant GM on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

how can anyone say they played a good game when they were down 17 in the first quarter!!

it's not like it's an anomaly. it happened all season long, and has continued through the playoffs.

a requisite comeback after being blown out in the first, does not a good game make. I'm tired of it.

by papa on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

What a game.

Lots of points of contention, but AT LAST it was good to see Toronto show some fight.

And you know something, I gotta give some props to Sam Mitchell. Who knows what that last play call was all about, CB4 could have hijacked it for all we know at this point, but Sam did a great job getting the right guys out in certain situations. Even his use of Bargs sporadically.

Bosh missed the final jumper but really fought through the entire game.

And what can you say about Kapono. The guy's a cot-damn blowtorch!

Although Toronto lost this one, they HAVE to feel like they can beat this team, especially using the small aggressive line-up and the huge bench advantage.

But Mitchell has to make a decision about TJ. He's been abysmal...

by Franchise on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Saw the NBA TV feed in Phoenix. The first quarter did us in again. TJ was brutal and Jose was much better. As Sam said in the post-game scrum: we got to win game 3.

To my surprise, the American commentators were quite fair to the Raps and their analyses were by and large good.

by tfan on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Saw the NBA TV feed in Phoenix. The first quarter did us in again. TJ was brutal and Jose was much better. As Sam said in the post-game scrum: we got to win game 3.

To my surprise, the American commentators were quite fair to the Raps and their analyses were by and large good.

by tfan on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

this one hurt bad..i really wanted this one, but we didn't deserve it just because of the first quarter hole we put ourselves in..we need to come out with the same intensity as the Magic did on their home court, but maintain it, I want to see resounding W's back home..I'm calling a big game from AB in a game 3 win, Ford looks lost out there..Calderon needs to just man the ship for the majority of the game..

by ro on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Wow that was a tough loss to take... I'm surprised noone is commenting on the lack of strategy after the last two timeouts: give the ball to Bosh near the 3p line and let him play it on his own with not even a pick and roll? and the guys away of the ball just standing pat? Is that really the best Raps can do after two timeouts in such a critical end of game situation? I'm not one to normally lay all the blame on coaching, and Mitchell has to be praised for his successful in-game lineup tweaks and staying with the guys who were hot (Calderon, Kapono...), but those two final plays were really infuriating.

by Sergi P on Apr 23, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I mean, if you're gonna give the ball to Bosh (fair enough) at least set up some screen or minimal play so he can be a lot closer to the basket when you get him the ball.

by Sergi P on Apr 23, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

For all of you who are saying that Bosh was not fouled on the Raps' second last possession of the game, I gotta ask, what the fuck were you watching? You do know that if you use your body to interfere with the offensive player, it's still a foul right? This isn't hockey, Howard body checked Bosh, it doesn't matter that his arm was straight up in the air.

by Blaxx on Apr 23, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Come on,no foul call,I guess the wind knocked Bosh on his ass.
How many times were Raps picked up off the floor.
For once I would like to see a Magics ass on the floor.
We are soft,we got the "hard fouls) but not hard enough.

by d279 on Apr 23, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions