3 In the Key – Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. Hawks

Hmm . . . I don't want to be a troublemaker, but you have a better 'finishing' Raps team winning five more games (43 total), but you have not decreased the loss total the same amount (to 31.)

To me, this team could never be 43-31. The bottom line is that good teams do not lose those kinds of games so consistently, so the losses themselves are the mark of mediocrity. My pre-season prediction was 42-40, and I think that's about right. If we keep the same basic team (Ford, Calderon, Bosh, Bargnani etc.) for 2008-09, my projection is 35-47, with a major overhaul needed after that.

The potential just isn't there for me--where are we going to get our second 20ppg scorer from this group? It just ain't gonna happen and the perimeter defense is deplorable--not as bad as the Jalen Rose days, perhaps-- but still right down at the bottom of the league.

Clearly all this stuff points to Bargs, who is still a full-blown bust in my books. Even if he was averaging 12 or 13ppg (his career high of the future?), would it be worth it to have a terrible defender who grabs 4 rebounds per game?

It just didn't work out, hopefully Colangelo will be smart enough to get rid of Ford and Bargs in the next year and a half and start again.
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Please keep Joey away from the court. Maybe the girls like him or something, because I have no idea why this guy hasn't been released.

I disagree with that statement, this year lets say the raps finish at .500 or just above it.

Their core is young and will only get better but somehow they will win 5-7 games LESS than next year.

If their core is young wouldn't you expect them to get better as time goes on and not worst?

Granted this team needs to make a decision on the pg situation as I said earlier. NO way you pay 16 million to the pg position on a team wihtout having a franchise talent and neither TJ or JOse are franchise talents. Get rid of one of them (TJ) bring in a quality backup (Jarret Jack or Chris Duhon)

Bring in a star player who is at the level of Jose or TJ who plays on the wing and wants to attack the basket and can create off the dribble.

IF the raps can get those two things done and Bargnani improves (which he certainly should) no reason why the raps can't be a much improved team.

However even if they stay with this core, provided there are no major injuries I expect them to improve.

Building a contender is a process.

You summed it up perfectly for me, Franchise.

I lowered my expectations after the All-star break, but at the start of the season, I expected 50 wins give or take. I didn't like the kapono signing, but thought he would score enough to negate his deficiencies. Carlos, I just can't stand his game and moon, although he's improved lately, really killed us with his "rookie wall" period.

Bargnani will improve and I think he has elite potential skills, but I find myself questioning his attitude and lack of aggression.

Overall, I think the playoffs will really be the measuring stick. They've been grinding all year instead of playing "raptor's basketball", maybe it will pay off in the postseason when things get tight.

Understanding that winning a Championship is a process....I vote to use the Celtic process...I may not be around when that ring becomes a reality...
How does qualify this season....
If anything ,we know what we need now.....
Oh ya,exactly what we needed to start this season...a rebounder & a slasher...
Forgot to mention,someone with a clipboard,that does more than shake his head...

Wanted to add, is anyone with me on wanting to keep forderon? I know I'm in the minority, but it seems like no one remembers how good that situation was when they were both healthy and in rythym.

Axl,how can you afford to keep both ? Having said that ,I dont care if T.J. and his ego bring us to the promised land,I'm done with him....the only problem with trying to deal him is injury issues,besides the Knicks,who would want him?

I think the problem with expectations is that this team overachieved by such a HUGE amount last year that everyone is disappointed that they've come back to earth this year. Even BC never planned for the team to improve that much last year and I think if anyone said that they expected this team to win almost 50 games last season they are lying. My projection for last season was 35 wins, that would have satisfied me considering we had 9 new players and 2 or 3 rotational players returning. I think it's hard to determine what this year should have been because of the inconsistencies of our bench, you simply don't know what you're going to get on any given night so the depth added over the summer is negated. I think BC makes a huge splash this summer and overhauls the team to find a #2 option to put next to Bosh. I'm really holding out hope that it involves bringing in Deng and Duhon from Chicago for TJ and pieces (it hinges on Chicago finding a taker for Hinrich tho which may be near impossible but stranger things have happened)

When they are really rolling, they made everyone better, so we could spend less money on other upgrades. Other things would need to happen obviously, Rasho opting out and signing a long term deal for less per year, for one.

I'm not saying it's totally realistic, but I just remember the days when our bench would destroy other benches and starters sometimes as well, not to mention outscore the raps starters.

For example, the problem with phoenix is the drop off when nash sits, with forderon there was no drop off. Not to mention to different styles of play to mess with opposition defense and disrupt defensive strengths of opponents.

It would be very easy to keep both Ford and Calderon considering that after next season there are only 3 players under contract (Bosh, Ford, Kapono). And don't think that there are no teams in the league that wouldn't want TJ Ford, I know everyone thinks his issues are this big deal but it's small considering what some other teams are dealing with (and what this team has dealt with in the past). BC won't have any trouble moving him in the offseason if he chooses to go that route

Aaron - second time I've done that recently ha ha - just changed it to 43 and 31, thanks for the math reality check.

Blaxx - I think you make a good point about the team overacheiving last year. I had them pegged for 38 wins so they smashed that total for sure. The frustrating thing is that while I didn't expect 50 wins this year, I thought they'd be able to stay at the same level and look better come playoff time, especially with their new-found depth. That just hasn't been the case. Everyone talks about Orlando being the best match-up for Toronto but after watching the Magic against the Hornets last night (huge game by Mo Pete by the way), I'm not sure Toronto has the consistency to win a 7-game series against them or ANY team! Perhaps the final eight games will restore some of my faith...

Franchise: I'm on the same page as you....the raps have had some success against the Magic however there is a reason the Magic are third in the East while the raps are fighting to stay out of 7th.

However one could also argue that Dwight Howard has no playoff experience and he'll be matching up against Rasho who knows what it takes to play on championship contending teams.

The key will be Bosh. How much has he learned from last year....will he get shut down again or will he dominate the Magic like he has in the past.

Stopping Hedo will be another big key....it should give a good idea of what Jamario's worth will be in the offseason as I think the he has one year regmaining on his deal however the Raps can exercise that contract option and extend him at the same time. Sort of like what they do with first round rookies (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

Re: the Hawks fighting for their playoff lives, bear in mind they have a 3-game cushion in 8th right now. If that doesn't sound like much, that's as much as the LeBrons have on us and Washington right now.

The Hawks should take 8th by default, as none of the teams behind them (except MAYBE Indiana) seems remotely interested in challenging for a playoff spot, and the Hawks are the one team without a pick so there's no incentive to stay in the lottery.

All those other crappy teams "fighting" for 8th have a better chance of winning the lottery than taking the Celtics beyond 5 games max, even if they only have a handful of ping pong balls.

That's not to say the Hawks won't come out fighting tonight, who knows, but I don't think there's much of a sense of urgency there any more due to the competition.

d279... regarding taking the Celtic process, it's not as easy as they've made it look.

Interesting take in this article, especially the last paragraph: http://www.shootthemessinger.com/mess/wordpress/?p=193

Franchise I agree with Smith.
Raptors Season @ 42/44 wins looks about right given the happenings this year. The plan by BC was to keep the core and let them improve & win at least 1 round in the playoffs or more this year.

The turning point was on Feb 29th vs Washington when Bosh was injured and missed 10 games. At that time Rap's were 32-24 & +8 after going 7-3 in previous 10 gms. And the future was looking good. That after TJ missing 31 games & still struggling to accept a back-up role. Jose doing an outstanding job in replacing him & going 25-17 as a starter, but with no one replacing Jose except Martin/Dixon. Bosh at the top of his game when injured after getting off to a slow start for the preseason and first month. Bargnani being as inconsistent as a rookie, playing at a new position, and not improving as quickly as anticipated, & unable to step in for Bosh. Moon a rookie starting at SF with some great, some good, and some poor efforts, not unexpected if you consider where he came from. Kapono a major disapointment and Delfino while a major contributer sometimes as inconsistent as Mopete was.

When Bosh went down the bottom fell out as Rap's only have one STAR player, who leads, scores, rebounds, and plays defense. 2Wins 9losses later and here we are @ 38-36 after a 3-1 last 4 with Bosh back, but still not to the level pre-injury.

Results should not be surprising, as an example consider: Cleveland 10 games in a row with no LBJ, they went 0-5 when he missed 5. Phoenix 31 games without Nash. LAL 10 games without Kobe. NOH 31 games without Paul. All one major star teams. I would expect a major impact on them also, although maybe not as much as Rap's because they may have more secondary talent than Raptors.
February 29th, 2008 the date.

The season will be defined by the playoff performance.

I agree with Axl, we should keep Forderon together, no point in making a move from a position of weakness. I think f we offer Jose the same 4 year offer TJ signed; 8mil, 8 mil, 8.5 fourth year is a player option for 8.5mil. Equal pay means equal respect, and I do believe Jose is fine not starting.

However in my dream world of rumors,

I'd trade TJ for Crawford straight up

Get the Clippers to sign and trade Magette for Kapono and Hump (with their bigs, that team NEEDS a 3 point shooter).

Sign Duhon to be Jose's back up.

Draft the best player available.

Let Rasho start next year, bring Bargs off the bench, why rush things?

So we look like:

Rasho - Bargs
Bosh - Garbijosa
Magette - Moon
Parker - Crawford
Calderon - Duhon

-we all give in to armchair GMing once in a while...

Franchise, I agree with most of your inexcusible lossess except for one. That being the Portland game. They were scorching hot back then and nobody beat them. Don't forget, they had won 15 games or so in a row at that point and had a decent lead in their division till Utah got its senses back. Tonight I look for TJ to get redemption as a starter against the Hawks. I am sure he had this one circled on his calender for awhile.

As for the Forderon, I do like the connection until either of them gets hurt and then all hell breaks loose. So I am thinking why not dump TJ to the Clippers for Corey (rather than Kapono). And then bring in Roko Ukic to back up Jose. That way theres even more depth at every position and gives more variety to play at different tempo's. Also, just wondering, do any of you think the Raptors' and or anyone affiliated with the club (ie Sam or BC) ever read this forum?

not sure about BC, but I think Smitch is too busy cruisin' around in his Ford Edge, playing with all the buttons.

I hope we find a way to keep Delfino. He's a little sparatic but he's also only 24. He's got upside and will fill in well for Parker when his contract is up after next year. I'm displeased with TJ's comments/ attittude over recent weeks. You'd think a guy that was this close to not walking again and somehow found his way back to the court and to be rewarded by Colangelo that kind of money in spite of his history of injuries would approach the situation with a great deal more humility than he's displayed. Barg's lack of development is the fault of the coaches. Analyze any which way you want, somehow the more this coaching staff tries to coach him, the worse he plays. He played better when he was still learning the language and couldn't interpret alot of what he was being told. Garbajosa is in my opinion a difference maker as well. Moon I'm sure could have (and might) learned alot from him.

But what REALLY needs to change this off season..... drum roll please...... Coaching staff. We have a complete roster of NBA rookie coaches at the helm. The team can get us in the race but its the coaching that's going to get us over the top. And we haven't got it.. I'll be honest, Mitchell actually had some moments last night where he appeared to be making some strides as a tactician but for the most part, in my opinion, he's (his staff) have failed to prepare the team properly, which WHY they lose so many games that they should in fact have won.

Robert Archibald - That's nice work right there. My friends and I were talking about trading Ford for Crawford just the other day and we all came to the agreement that there is just something I don't like about him and we'd rather see him stay in New York. We're gonna come back to that one day and try to figure it out. Other than that, I've been saying that we need Maggette for a loooooong time but Donald Sterling has a huge man-crush on him. Only problem with your rotation is that Crawford would start over Parker, I love AP but he's no spring chicken and next year he'll just be older.

Robert Archibald- I love your dream scenario, but in my opinion, I think that we should trade Joey Graham for Chris Kaman. After all, the Clips could always use some additional athleticism!

Has anyone here looked at Maggette's stat line this season? Its: 22.5 ppg, 5.70 rpg, 2.8 apg. Is there any way that anyone would trade this guy for Hump and Kapono? Lets get real and come up with something more realistic.

Honestly, I think we'd be decently lucky to get Mo Pete back for him. Good on Mo, by the way, for becoming an important part of a real contender. Letting him go was actually one mistake that I really did see coming.

Sam Mitchell seemed to conspire against him last year. Apparently he came to camp out of shape. Does anyone else remember when he hit that crazy-ass buzzer beater to tie it up (after just being inserted in the game for the first time) and then Sam doesn't even start him in OT? Another bizzare moment in Mitchell World.

The Only Thing that was disappointing was AB's sophmore slump. And unfortunately alot of the raps fortunes rest on him. But overall the team is on par with what i expected considering garbo/ford and bosh injuries.

Considering all the injuries they've had, they're about where they should be. I guess the disappointing this is the lack of progress that we've seen from the younger players. Calderon has been terrific, Bosh has been Bosh, Rasho and Moon have been nice surprises. Who else has improved? Delfino's been up and down, but he's an athletic wing guy who can handle the point in a pinch, and on the whole he's been pretty good. Bargnani has looked lost more often than not, and I can't help but think that Brandon Roy was the better choice, but what's done is done. Ford's situation has been well documented. Graham has become a non-factor. Humphries has sat more often than not. Kapono has been a huge disappointment.

It'd be nice if the Raptors could add some athleticism at the wings - maybe even snagging a guy like Chris Douglas-Roberts or Brandon Rush.

This season is not a success. The post-season may be a success if we win the first round. There is something called momentum which once lost is hard to get back. We regressed from last year and the injuries thing is a faible excuse for NBA: almost none of our players developed this season compared with the last with the notable exception of Calderon.
However it doesn't mean that this season is a lost season providing next season Bargs, Delfino, Moon, Hump are much improved.

Magette is a restricted FA, except the clips don't really want him back. They are ready for Thornton to move in to the SF spot and won't pay Magettte what he deserves. I think Kapono is a good fit, they do need the outside shooting and he is reasonably proced and a hometown boy. Hump is just salary filler, young, brings skills to the court and still has potential. The Clips won't be getting like value for Magette, they might as well fill a need if they can.

We are dominating at the PG and the C tonight! In years past how often could we say that. I hope the second half keeps going...

In terms of the season, all will be forgotten if the raps make it to the second round. Rasho keep s saying, "Playoffs is a different story". If the Raps make it to the second round and don't embarrass themselves, we will all forget about the loss to the Knicks.

I almost worry that if the Raps do make it to the second round, they may not make improvements in places where they could (coaching). ButI can deal with Smitch if we get into the second round!

just watched the atlanta game, if i was bargnani i would be confused. Doesnt matter how he plays or how hot he is mitchell likes to bench him. Has to be frustrating for european players who are used to coaches running a team game to be coached by someone who makes senseless decisions and plays favourites

Toughest Loss Of the Year By Far. Raptors won that game. A Layup doesn't take more than 0.5. Great After Timeout Plays by Mitchell. I think you guys have to put him in the Hot Section.

What a tough loss, but such a great game to watch.

Very representative game for the Raps season. My wife when TJ got in at 5:10 mark: "why does Sam want us to loose the game?" TJ with 20 shots in 32', the same as Bosh in 47'.
In Mitchell system when the team needs points the shooters rot on the bench. Nothing surprises me anymore.
The clock thing is a lame excuse: we shoudn't have reached that point and we should have won in OT.

Man Bosh Sucks in the Clutch. He Needs To Step Up. TJ Tried.........he's the only one who wanted to step up. At least AB had a nice game

Anyone notice that the Atlanta timekeeper started the clock before TJ touched the ball? This Atlanta's third error (not counting a Raptor basket, Shaq's 6th foul and now robbing the Raptors. Let's bombard Stern etc with protests. It was our game.

I was about to post the exact same thing Jude. I'm sorry but that is inexcusable. To rob the Raps (again) on such a beautiful play is an injustice! The NBA has to do something about this. That basket would have counted if not for this blunder.

Looks like pick your poison. Jose not scoring off the bench. TJ not playing off the bench. Both point guards along with Bosh got hammered by Alanta Offense. Forget the last play in regulation time they blew at 17 point lead again! And they want orlando????how about Miami!

Cheating Atlanta timekeepers at it again. NBA reffing has also hit an all time low if they don't count that hoop.

By no means am I an expert on this but I epect this game to be awarded to us. There is no doubt the shot clock started early. It was the difference. Should be an easy call

I think this was the first season that I can remember, where the Raps didn't get a few wins than they were NOT supposed to get.

Save ONE win over the Celtics (out of four), and a Spurs victory (Blazers too?), the Raptors have layed down for every quality opponent.

Even against division rivals the Wiz and Cavs, they have been woefully inadequate.
Pretty sure the sixers took it to us a couple of times (?), and I remember getting beat by NY and NJ.

0 for 5 out west during a crucial part of the schedule, albeit without CB.

The team is a typical middle of the road squad right now that will be blown out of the water first round.

Sorry I usually only hate on the Leafs, I'll be cheering for the Raptors as always, but let's just say I'm more interested in the off-season.

Oh yeah, that Hawks scoretable crap is BS, that literally is unacceptable, don't you think?
What if that occured during a Western Conference rival game at this time of year?

To me this error is way worse than that Shaq game replay earlier this year.

for the record...it wasn't the scorers table that started the clock, it was one of the game officials, eric lewis. http://myespn.go.com/nba/truehoop

i think they have to overturn it, as as a ref, you do not touch the little button on your belt that starts the clock until you see the ball in the players hands. the shot clock was clearly already at 0.4 before the ball was even in TJ's hands, and was probably closer to 0.35 by the time he even touched it.

but, as mentioned, the real bummer is them blowing the 17 pt lead.
For me the turning point was at the end of the third when the raps turned it over a couple times and that 17 pts dwindled to 10 or 11. As soon as that happened, i turned to the gf and said "they are going to lose". TJ jacking up shots at the end of the 4th quarter while parker and others sat with their hands in their pockets didn't help. All we needed to do to win this game was give the ball to bosh and let him drive the basket (as the raps were in the bonus for the last half of the 4th).

Still, I really hope Stern does something about it.