Toronto Raptors versus Orlando Magic – Playoff Preview I

by RaptorsHQ - Archives on Apr 18, 2008 12:00 AM EDT in Feature Stories

As Howard described it recently, it's like Superman vs Lex Luthor in Round 1...

Ok I’m starting to get excited now.

And not just because it sounds like Jack Armstrong will be an even bigger part of Raptors’ broadcasts next year.

It took me a while…but now I’m starting to feel the playoff hype seep into my blood.

And not just because our beloved Toronto Raptors are making their fifth playoff appearance in franchise history…but also because of some of the dynamite match-ups that are locked-in for the first round, especially in the West.

I mean Phoenix and San Antonio in the first round? Are you kidding me?

And even in the East – I can’t wait to see Lebron’s woefully inept offensive club take on Caron Butler’s woefully inept defensive squad. Sort of a tale of two cities with plenty of trash talk to go around.

And what about the Raptors, ready to play the role of underdogs against Orlando…can this squad put their regular season firmly in the rear-view mirror?

This is going to be a pivotal series for Toronto, one that is much more important than last year’s in fact. Last year, Toronto was one of the feel-good stories of the year in the NBA, a club that shot to the top of the Atlantic and surprised many by racking up 47 wins. The playoffs was a nice desert to top things off and while the Raptors were the higher seeded team in their match-up, it was a brand new experience for the majority of the team…and it showed as they were ousted in six by the Nets.

However the playoffs were viewed by the majority as the capper to a great season, not a disappointing first round exit, and it was expected that the team would build on this and return even deeper and more hungry this year.

Well so far this season, that hasn’t materialized.

Therefore, a series that looked prior to the season to be a stepping-stone to greater things, suddenly has become an evaluation session.

If the Raptors get by the Magic, perhaps all is not "for naught," and management will simply keep building towards the free-agent frenzy summer of 2009.

Should Toronto fail miserably against Orlando to cap off what was at best an inconsistent season, then all of a sudden it might be time for Bryan Colangelo and his crew to re-examine their original blueprints.

So with this in mind, we here at RaptorsHQ have six questions we’d like to see answered as the first round unfolds:

1) Will the real Toronto Raptors team please stand up? Who knows which Toronto team is going to show up on Sunday – is it the gritty bunch that grinded out wins against San Antonio and killed Boston with a salvo of long-range missiles? Or is it the moribund crew that slogged through the final month and a half of the season? The latter isn’t going to stand a chance against the Magic while the former, could indeed make things quite interesting.

The problem is, as fans, we don’t have much of an idea as to which version of the Raptors we’ll see…and we’re all hoping it’s not the last incarnation of the club from March and April.

From my perspective, it’s going to take a lot more toughness, tenacity and urgency from this group than they’ve displayed most of the season. Orlando isn’t a particularly "tough" team either so if Toronto can somehow summon the spirit of Charles Oakley (or get Garbo to fire everyone up before the games), than this should prove to be a huge advantage over an inexperienced Magic club.

To further illustrate this point, I turn things over to Fire Sam Mitchell.com, who did this superb breakdown of each player on the Raptors in terms of their current intensity levels:

Last year against New Jersey, Toronto came off soft at times and guys like Bargnani, Moon, Delfino and Kapono are going to need to take things to at least the CB4 level of intensity if they want to knock off the Magic.

In addition, besides showing some fight again, the club needs to rediscover its offensive firepower. Here’s a strange thought but can Toronto actually score enough in this series to win? The Raptors of last year were an offensive juggernaut. Sure their defense was a bit Nugget-esque, but on most nights they could put up enough points on the scoreboard to end up on top. This year, Toronto’s still averaging about 100 points a game but over the past month and a half, the results haven’t been as good. The Magic averaged about 104 points a game on the season, so if the Raptors keep up their morbid 30.7 per cent 3-point shooting from April, this series is going to be over faster than you can say JJ Redick. This club was constructed to be a deadly long-range shooting team and it’s going to be key for the Raptors to use Bosh to suck in the defense, and then make the Magic pay by hitting outside shots.

Can Andrea put the regular season behind him?

2) Can Andrea Bargnani step up on the big stage?

Here’s our next big question mark. Andrea’s disappointing season has been dissected time and time again so let’s see just how he comes out of the gate on Sunday. Sam Mitchell is going to have some major decisions to make as if Bargs struggles from the get-go, this won’t be the time to play around and hope to "get him some experience." That was last year, and this year during the regular season. Mitchell seems to understand now that Toronto simply needs to win, hence the re-insertion of Rasho Nesterovic into the starting line-up late in the season. So what might be much to Colangelo and Gherardini’s dismay, I fully expect Sam to give Andrea a permanent ride on the pine if he rails to rebound, guard his position, and attack the basket. Andrea actually did a decent job defensively against Hedo Turkoglu during the regular season and I that these two are really the X Factors in the series. If Bargs can start pumping in 15 to 18 points a game off the bench, this could give the Magic’s thin bunch of back-ups fits…not to mention some more grey hairs for Magic coach Stan Van Gundy. However if Hedo starts using his size to bully his way to the basket, and starts canning ridiculous shots from long distance...

3) Can Toronto’s bench be an advantage in the series?

Continuing with the Andrea theme, his bench-mates need to give Toronto productive minutes in this series. This is an area that on paper looks to be a big advantage for the Raptors. Carlos Delfino, Jason Kapono, Jose Calderon, the aforementioned Bargnani and even Kris Humphries when playing to their strengths overshadow the likes of Keith Boggans, Keyon Dooling, JJ Redick, Carlos Arroyo, Brian Cook and Adonal Foyle for the Magic. However as we know, Toronto’s depth hasn’t been all that it was cracked up to be this year and it’s crucial that the Raptors get a balanced attack from both their starters and their bench.

4) Can Toronto keep Orlando’s long-range shooting in check?

Maybe some people feel that containing Dwight Howard is a key. Or that Toronto needs to do a number on the boards. But I don’t think either of these two points is as important as the Raptors’ ability to defend the 3-point line. The Magic shot almost as well on the season as the Raps from downtown and Orlando gets up more 3’s than anyone in the league besides Golden State. The Magic averaged an amazing 25 3-point shots a game this year while Toronto, as good as they shot, took only about 18. That’s a huge difference and for a team that really struggles to defend against the 3, I’m worried that this will be the difference in the series. If we start seeing lax rotations, ineffective double-teams on Howard, or penetration by Hedo and others, it just opens things up for Orlando to bomb away. Considering they hit on almost 39 per cent of these long-range attempts (nearly the same as Toronto), the Raptors can’t afford to give the Magic open looks.

And as previously discussed, Toronto needs to fire back. Unfortunately as mentioned on T Jose Caldeford recently, the Raps five big long-range gunners are shooting a collective 33.9 per cent from beyond the arc since the All-Star break as opposed to 45.1 per cent prior to it. That folks is a huge difference and a major concern for me heading into this series.

5) Can CB4 carry the weight?

Therefore if Toronto’s shots aren’t falling, it will be up to Chris Bosh to get the job done. Last year he was stymied by some very effective New Jersey defense and it will be interesting to see what Orlando throws at him this year. After Orlando’s last loss to Toronto during the season, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy lauded Bosh’s work and was upset with himself having waited so long in the game to use double-teams and other defensive strategies to thwart Chris. Therefore I expect Van Gundy to try some innovative sets (perhaps even a box and 1 if the other Raptors are struggling to score?) to get Bosh out of his comfort zone and into jump shot mode. For Toronto though, CB4 needs to make quick moves with the ball as soon as he receives it and needs to attack the rim early and often. He can’t wait for his team-mates to get the job done and needs to be both a scorer and a creator. Bosh has a lot to prove in this series and I believe that as he goes, so will the Raptors.

6) Which point guard gets the call in the crunch?

Finally, what looks to be the hot-button topic of the series from a Raptors’ perspective. As one of our readers mentioned yesterday, Mitchell has indeed tip-toed around this subject and has at times played both Ford and Calderon during fourth quarters. He may continue to do that against Orlando if the Magic go small with Nelson or Arroyo in the back-court with Dooling. However at some point Mitchell is going to have to make some decisions. Right now I think he’ll take the "it depends on the situation" approach and has no one player in mind to finish games. If the Raptors need scoring, he’ll probably go with TJ. If Toronto needs more offensive continuity and ball movement, Mitchell goes with Jose.

Neither point guard has blown me away with their play recently so I think for the time being, it’s not a bad idea to see how the game unfolds in terms of making a decision. No, it’s not ideal, but this is what you get when you are still tweaking starting line-ups with only a handful of games left in the season.

Franchise may not have thought he was an All-Star, but Hedo is his pick as the Magic's X Factor...

So who wins this series?

Right now, based on the way Toronto has played to finish the season, I think Orlando does in five games. I worry that the Raptors will struggle to score points when their second unit is in the game, and have too many defensive lapses against the Magic’s sharp-shooters. I also worry about Mitchell’s coaching and lack of set rotations. The Magic won over 50 games this season for a reason – this is a good team. Meanwhile, we’re left to judge the Raptors based on Toronto’s body of work over the past month and half, which is simply not that impressive. Realistically right now, a lot of things need to go right for Toronto to win.

That being said, I do think Toronto can win this series.

If the Raps can D-up on the perimeter, force Dwight Howard away from the basket so he’s not getting easy dunks and put-backs, get an excellent series from Chris Bosh and the bench in terms of offence, and play with some grit urgency, I think Toronto can easily move on. Bosh, Toronto’s depth and point guard play are all advantages that the Dinos should be able to take advantage of in order to advance.

Sports Illustrated.com is even picking Toronto to win the series!

And while ESPN is predominantly pro-Magic, others still view Toronto as a potential sleeper pick.

For me, I think watching that first quarter of Game 1 will be a great indicator of how this series will go.

Now I just need to make it through until the Sunday tip-off.

FRANCHISE

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I knew I could count on you guys to get me hyped.

I agree will most of your points except I predict X factor player will be Rasho. I can’t imagine Bargnani awaking from season long slumber to lead team to series victory. He may have one break out game, Orlando adjusts and Bargnani is lost for balance of series.
You can’t dismiss the regular season patterns like it didn’t happen.

by OldSchool on Apr 18, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Deadspin series preview:
http://deadspin.com/381000/toronto-versus-orlando-the-now-heres-a-series-series

by Costa on Apr 18, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

yeah...starting to get hyped up now too. I think Bargnani is the X factor in that he needs to step it up for Toronto to win. But i dont see him doing it so like you said olschool, i think Rasho gets my vote.

by fromlongrange on Apr 18, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

OldSchool: as an answer to yesterday's query about my assertion that 60% (59.6%) of people who read this website are on crack/think the Raps could win in the 1st round: I was just using the poll on this site and totalling the "win in 6 and win in 7" numbers.

So, we get the 15th pick, right? Pretty good . . . as long as we take "Granger" over "Graham."

by Aaron on Apr 18, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

For me, there are four main keys to the Raptors winning this series:

1. Rasho Nesterovic: Rasho Nesterovic has to be able to "guard" Howard one on one without requiring a double team. I say "guard" in quotations because he won’t shut him out, but if he can do little things like limit his positioning and possessions, keep him off the offensive boards and force him to shoot anything other than a dunk, it will allow Bosh to completely eclipse Howard’s production. This, in my opinion is very possible. Rasho has played Howard extremely well in the past and Howard has had difficulty dealing with his size, his surprising strength and his veteran savvy. Watch some tape of Rasho Vs. Howard and you’ll see what I mean. Howard has difficulty getting the position he prefers when matching up against Rasho.
2. Jemario Moon: That’s right Moon is my second key in this series. There are match-ups at the small forward that Moon has dominated in terms of his athletic defence this season and I think Turkoglu could be one. Turkoglo won’t be able to uses his size against Moon as he is just too athletic and too quick. Moon has an uncanny ability to slightly bight on pump fakes, recover and surprise his opponent by regaining position and blocking his shot. He seldom receives accolades for this, but he may be one of the best at closing space on an opponent without fouling in the league. The first half of the first game will be key. If Moon can challenge or successfully block one of Turk’s shots he will get in his head. This will be the biggest challenge and most responsibility of Moon’s career. Is he up to it? We’ll have to see.
3. Shooters: Our shooters have to make shots. I know it sounds like a Smitch cop out… but plain and simple, when Orlando throws junk defences at Bosh (which they will) and Bosh starts to find people (which he has done a much better job of as of late) they have to make open shots. That goes to Rasho (no blown layups) Bargs, Kapono, Delfino and Parker. "We just gotta make shats".
4. That brings me to the final point. Bosh has to play FRANCHISE ball. That doesn’t necessarily mean he will have to score 40 pts a game. But he does have to be efficient (good shot selection, low turnovers), generate fouls, REBOUND (absolutely key), distribute the ball effectively when doubled and play solid defence. This last point will be interesting as he will be matched up against Rashad Lewis most of the time. This will force Bosh to the perimeter and will prove to be interesting.

by MAS on Apr 18, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

Great read franchise. I've been trying to be a positive voice on these comments, but blind faith can only take you so far. We are still a jump shooting team and if our shooters can get hot and sustain it we win this series easily, because the inside will then open up. Of course the magic are the ones that are shooting hot right now. The other option is Plan B, but I just don't see bargnani, moon or even AP summoning up the reckless abandon they need to force the issue in the paint.

by axl on Apr 18, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

A couple of comments about the Orlando series:

1. Franchise, good point about the Magic using a box and 1 or a zone on Bosh and then forcing the Raptors to score from the perimeter. The fact is that the Raps depend on Bosh scoring or making plays when he gets double-teamed to open shooters. With a zone, that may tie up Bosh and Orlando can recover to Toronto's shooters. This will be something that the Raps coaching staff will need to address.

2. The PGs play should determine who plays the 4th quarter. However, assuming that its a close game, I think that Sam has to go with Calderon since he is a better decision-maker. Also, in the playoffs a lot of the plays are about half-court execution and Calderon runs the pick and roll extremely well with Bosh.

3. When TJ and Nesterovic were reinserted in the starting lineup it created an imbalance in terms of the 3-pt shooters as now the starting unit only has Parker as a 3-pt shooter but the second unit has four 3-pt shooters (Calderon, Kapono, Delfino and Bargnani). This is a big issue since the Raptors offense generally depends on Bosh either making a play or feeding a 3-pt shooter out of a double-team. The series with Orlando may become a bit of a 3-pt shooting contest with Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu. Franchise, part of the team's poor 3-pt shooting relates to this imbalance since right now when Bosh feeds the ball out of the double-team there is only Parter on the floor to shoot the 3-ball. In my opinion, the starting unit does not have enough offense. Also, Calderon in the 2nd unit has a bunch of 3-pt shooters on the floor who generally don't create shots for themselves so the ball gets passed around on the perimeter. The coaching staff will need to address this imbalance by re-inserting 1 of the second unit 3-pt shooters into the starting lineup - perhaps Delfino for Moon.

by Bball on Apr 18, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions