Wishful Thinking Episode 3 – One Bibby Down, One Artest to Go?

So the final conclusion, after all that banter, is that BC is not likely to go after Artest and Kenny Thomas? Well, thank the effing lord!

TJ's body breaking down like this is terrible! I can understand a wrist sprain as a freak accident, but an abdominal strain from a cut made in the open court? Maybe we should forget about rebounding and Pietrus and talking about Kyle Lowry.

Speaking of interesting Raptor trade talk...

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/02/19/trade-machinations-pietrus-to-toronto/#comments

I don't know how much truth there is behind it, but me like ^_^

Article on the Fanhouse says some talking re Raptors getting Pietrus & Croshere from GSW for Dixon and Graham. Pietrus apparently wants out.

Costa - They stole my thunder ha ha...

I was going to talk about this tomorrow in the Orlando preview and trade deadline breakdown. People have been talking about Pietrus and like the post at the Fanhouse says, the only trade for Pietrus that makes sense is one bringing in him and Austin Croshere for Dixon and Graham. I'm actually not sure why either team wouldn't make this trade, it almost makes TOO much sense:

-Dixon could give the Warriors some Veteran presence and Nelson likes to play small at times.

-Graham could use a change of scenary and would at worst be able to play a few minutes a game in place of Pietrus.

-Pietrus would get a no-risk look by the Raptors to finish off the season and he might provide some necessary athleticism.

-Croshere can shoot it from long range and might actually help out in the rebounding and toughness department.

And in terms of salaries, no one really takes on any long-term headaches. If this trade went down it wouldn't surprise me at all and in fact, I think it's much like getting Dixon for Fred Jones last year, no harm in trying it out!

I was just coming on here to comment on that trade rumor. I am really liking that trade, Cro gives us another big body, and his contract comes off the books this summer to give us cap space.

Pietrus would be a nice fit for this team though he doesn't seem to be a great rebounder either, and that is somehting BC needs to address. Another International Minded player as well, and we drop two players who aren't seeing court time anyways.

Having an opposing blogger chime in on trade possibilities is a an awesome feature. It's good to have an outside opinion on Toronto's roster.

If in the endgame, Denver is willing to ante up Kleiza, Najera and a 1st round pick, then kudos to Petrie for waiting them out. Kleiza is the rare undersized PF who's successfully developed his swingman skills after entering the NBA.

In regards to Rubik's point, I don't think BC every stopped looking for a third PG, and Lowry is as good an option as any.

Something to mull over, in regards to the Kings. Assuming the Artest deals goes through , don't they have some intriguing assets. Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson at PG. Najera at PF. (All on expiring deals to boot)

And how about that Trenton Hassell now on NJ. I can't say I know much about him but he's supposed to have a rep as a defensive stopper at the swing positions.

The problem with getting Trenton Hassel is that his contract, a non-trivial 4.4 mil per year, stretches all the way to 09-10. I don't think Colangelo would be very much interested to pay that much for a guy who is only a minor on-ball defense upgrade over the league-minimum paid and energetic Jamario Moon while also being even more of a black hole than him on offense.

Pietrus and Croshere for Dixon and Graham??? Are you kidding? This is so one-sided for the Raptors it's crazy.

Graham is probably the worst player in the NBA and Dixon is a 6'2" shooter who has proven he can't play defense or dribble the ball up the court without falling over.

Sure, do the trade, but I'd rather go for Kobe Bryant for Dixon and Graham, that's a winner!

Why does every trade have to be so favourable for the Raps? Nobody wants Graham or Dixon, I think a bucket of spit is too much. I would think Delfino and Dixon for Pietrus and Croshere is much closer to reality.

The Pietrus trade would be a good one for the Raptors because we might be surprised to realize how well he fits into our system. What if he comes in, does extremely well, and becomes the preferred option over Delfino in the off season? It’s possible.

As athletic as he is though, he doesn’t rebound as well as he should; his footwork on defense is slow and he’s often beaten easily off the dribble as a result. His overall one on one defense really isn’t anything to write home about either and he’s an average slasher. Just in case you’re wondering, the Warriors are my 2nd favorite team and I’ve seen about 75% of their games between last season and this season so far.

I like Pietrus in the Raptor system though, and we may be in for a surprise because he is a better player than he has shown in Golden State. He needs to improve in the areas mentioned above though if he’s going to find a starting role here. When you look at his frame, you’d think he’d be a lock down defender on the wing, and maybe he can develop into that in a Raptor uniform. It’s a good trade for us, we should take this one in a heart beat.

Aaron - Totally agree with the comment from Member29 - I have the same worries about Pietrus as well so not sure this trade is exactly a STEAL for Toronto. Not like the Raps would be getting Baron Davis, or even Matt Barnes. To me this trade looks more like two teams saying "yeah, let's shake things up as none of these guys are really impacting our respective clubs." If Pietrus is so valuable, how is he not playing ahead of a former NBDLers like Azuibuike or Watson?

On another note, maybe we need to stop the swingman trade talk. TJ is out again, this time with an abdominal strain:

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/304783

Anyone think Kyle Lowry could be had from Memphis for the right price? Maybe if Toronto threw in a pick (I'd rather it be next year's first-round choice) and a smallish expiring deal? I'm thinking the Grizz would try to insist that Toronto take Brian Cardinal off their hands. Interestingly, Dixon and Garbs for Lowry and Cardinal works...

Listen up people. How about some assessment on why Pietrus would be good for the Raps? So far I only know what he doesn't do well. For those of us who are not in-the-know.

I agree that taking Lowry might be a nice pickup.

I think after seeing what Jose can do Brian might be reconsidering the effectiveness of TJ.

Perhaps having Jose start and play around 30 minutes and then signing a suitable backup like a Lowry, Duhon, Earl Watson would make more sense as we would have Jose playing more (good thing) and gain more financial flexability (another good thing)

I really think that the financial flexability that we could have had should have been used on a slasher.

Also if the raps are still looking for insurance at the pg spot why not go to orlando? Dooling makes just under 4 million and Arroyo makes 4 million and both contracts expire at the end of the season.

Is it just me or do the raps maybe have too much depth?

Everyone says Kopono should play more....however at which players expense should this happen? AP, Delfino and Moon are all above average defenders and solid rebounders from the win positions while Kopono is not.

If we play Kopono then we struggle more on defense and we struggle more with rebounding and everyone rants and raves about the lack of defence and rebounding.

However when we play guys who can defend a bit better and rebound a bit better in AP, Delfino, Moon we here that Kopono is such a great shooter and can score so much why isn't he getting more playing time?

Damned if you do, damned if you don't i guess.

And in regards to the pietrius + austin trade for Joey Graham and Dixon what happens to the PT for the 2 and 3 positions then. We then have 5 capable guys in Pietrius, Moon, Delfino, AP, Kopono....it'll probably just lead to more fans and reporters screaming about how the guy who isn't playing should be playing.

And in terms of Austin how many minutes are going to be available behind Bosh, Bargs, Rasho, Kris? Rasho and Kris do not get consistant minutes but somehow Austin is going to fill our need for a big man? What does he bring that the guys we already have don't?

I think we will go into next season with a pretty similar roster to this year.

Lets assume we resign moon, carlos and jose for next year. We still have AP, Garbo, Baston, Joey and Rasho's contracts all coming off the books.

We all know how valuble expiring contracts are in today's league and that totals about 22 million dollars off the books.

The raps financial make up will be

Bosh - 15 million
Ford - 8 million
Jose - 8 million (assuming)
Kopono - 6 million
Bargs - 7 million
Moon - 4 million
Delfino - 4 million

thats only 52 million we have spent exculding our expiring contracts.

To keep costs down and avoid the luxury tax which will be around 70 million and the owners have said they will not go into the luxury tax range. It leaves us with around 18 million exucluding our expiring contracts.

Perhaps we could pull an ATL or LA type move where we land a big name player by moving a bunch of our expiring contracts as we'll have plenty of them and then using whatever is left over to shore up wherever we appear to be missing some depth.

Thats what I would like to see happen....this trade seems like a trade for the sake of trading. I doubt Pietrius will give us anythign more than Delfino, Moon, AP do and it'll just create a further log jam same thing with Austin....at least with Joey and Dixon we don't have any locker room problems. Not sure if I'll be able to say that with Pietrius as he has been making a stink in GS due to a lack of playing time.

I know little about pietrus, but, like artest, it seems he'd rather be traded than focus on helping his team. So while I can picture these guys at the rim in a raps uniform, I can also picture them demanding out as soon as sam throws down the tough part of his tough love style. Artest is tempting for his defense, but not tempting enough.

My two cents - how about kapono for ben gordon. He wants out of chicago. We get him for our playoff push this year and some cap relief to sign jose. If we really wanted to keep him, we could let delfino walk (and probably have to dump some other salary too (joey, dixon)) and try to lock him up. Chicago I assume has RFA rights, so if they match, we lose him but keep delfino. Although if they did trade him, I can't see them matching to bring him back.

Kap's the only valuable trade asset I'm willing to part with. Next year rasho's expiring contract will get us something good, besides we need him.

I wonder how you guys rate the team in terms of trade viability. Here's mine.

Untouchable core
Bosh
Bargnani
Calderon
Ford

It would have to be a really, really good deal
Parker
Moon
Garbajosa

Take 'em or leave 'em - as long as it doesn't leave a black hole the position
Nesterovic
Delfino
Humphreys

Um, k, buh bye
Graham
Dixon
Baston
Martin

If Chicago trades Gordon, they no longer have his RFA rights; his new team does! So if the Raps traded for him, they would own his rights in free agency.

Interesting ideas...however TJ Ford and Garbo have incredibly little trade value on today's market because of injury history so I doubt you could move them even if you tried.

Untouchable

Chris Bosh: He is one of those rare players...you would never deal him and if you wanted to trade him you would never get equal value because the only guys of equal value have already been labelled as untouchable.

You'd have to really offer something Special and even then I doubt it:

Jose Calderon
Andrea Bargnani

These guys will be stars but might not be allstars. As good as Jose already is he is not an elite pg (deron williams, chris paul, steve nash, jason kidd, billups)

Andrea's ceiling is as high as anyones but he's not producing at an allstar level yet)

I'm pretty high on these guys so I probably won't move them:

Carlos Delfino
Jamario Moon

Young, talented, versatile, underpaid, potential.... whats not to like? The key is underpaid, because salaries have to matchup you would not get equal value back

Solid Players but I'd part with them:

Jason Kopono
Anthony Parker
Kris Humprhies
Rasho

Rasho, AP are solid vets with reasonable contracts which is what I like. However they are not part of the long term rebuilding plan (both in early 30s) and their trade value will only go down as they age.

Kopono - I dont' like his contract although at 6 million he isn't really overpaid and the market for a young specialist is usually pretty hot never know who might be willing to pay up to get him.

Kris is great, love the hustle and hard work however there are serious flaws to his game. A pretty attractive piece to some teams, everyone wants a big to do the dirty work. Perhaps he can develop into a Jeff Foster?

I'm shopping them and they have lots of potential:

Joey Graham: Pretty self explanatory

TJ Ford: The emergence of Calderon has put him here as well as his injury history...his lack of size also doesn't help

Guys who I would give away and not really care:

Garbo - its sad but its true...i love the guy but he won't be back at 100%

Dixon: I find it halarious...anytime you have a guy who is a shooting guard but is to small to play it people sell him on the fact that he can actually play both positions. Thats not the case, Juan can't play either at this level...he's a 10th or 11th man

Derrick Martin: Charles Barkley's body at the PG position....a weak D League players effectivness...maybe he can coach?

Baston: Who?

Bottom line is this....your not going to get something for nothing. To get a starting pg (TJ ford) we had to give up a versatile 6'11 big man who was a candidate for ROY (nevermind that his stock has dropped dramatically it was red hot at that time)

The only time you get something for nothing is when you give away your expiring contracts (Think LA, ATL) although I'm not sure you could say expiring contracts or nothing....I prefer to think of them as valuble trading chips

Axl,

Great idea with the trade viability! At this point the only untouchables are Bosh, Bargs and Calderone. Everyone else is negotiable. Everyone.

I’m a huge TJ backer but, but in light of his recent inability to stay on the court (not to mention his pondering retirement) if the right deal came along, and I was pretty sure I could resign Calderone, I would pull the trigger.

"Damned if you do, damned if you don't i guess."

Totally agree and it's something we've discussed a lot this year. Moon, Delfino and Kapono are all too one-dimensional and none are REALLY starting quality players. So as a result we get this frustrating mix and Mitchell has to guess who has the hot hand. And that's not even taking Joey Graham into account, who doesn't do any one thing well! I still think Kapono is best served coming off the bench but needs better second unit point guard play to be effective. Delfino and Moon are both sort of wild cards and I think the real stumbling block in terms of trades. If you are BC, it's tough to give up on either without getting something exceptional in return because they are just starting to blossom, albeit at a later age. Delfino is even trickier because he's going to be a free agent and the Raptors don't exactly have a lot of money floating around this off-season.

Austin isn't going to fill a need for a big man. However I'd say he'll be more useful than Graham and maybe even surprise a few folks. With Pietrus it's a no-lose situation. If he comes to Toronto and can't get minutes over Moon, Kapono or anyone else, then Toronto lets him walk at the end of the season, the same way they would have with Dixon. However he might also come in and be that slasher that the team covets at the 3. I personally don't think he's a huge upgrade over Delfino but considering you'd only be giving up Graham and Dixon and not taking on any long term deals, not sure what you have to lose if you're BC.

WT - Love the breakdown and am pretty much in total agreement with your assesment. I'd put Garbo a bit higher as I think as fans we don't see some of what he brought to the team last year besides his "stats" but other than that, yep, good rankings.

Axl - like the Gordon idea. I've thrown it around in my head the last while as Chicago is one of those "mess" teams who need to decide what direction to go. We saw Sacramento fire their first shot in terms of "direction" and now look to be in rebuild mode and if Chicago does the same, Deng or Gordon should be available for the right price. Would Kapono get it done? It might, but Toronto might have to throw in a draft pick as well.

As much as I hate to say or hear about it - more and more rumblings around that ACC has Colagelo exploring the market for Bargs...

Do you see any truth to this?

After having a few pints on the weekend I told a buddy of mine who works at TheScore and the Raps are looking to get tougher in the paint since CB4 is taking a beating - they need someone to offset Garbo's absense and Bargs is just not tough enough.

Pietrus would make sense to fill the void - but who could the Raps get for Bargs?

He's not a bust yet is he?

In regards to Ben Gordon… I’ve never understood why everyone is so enamoured with him. If you think about it, he is a Juan Dixon type player, too small to be a two guard and no point guard skills whatsoever. He is selfish with the ball and thinks he is worth more than $50 mil over 5 years. He will never be a starter in this league (well on a legitimate team that is), so why does he think he’s a franchise player? Plus who does he guard?

MAAS - Understand your concerns about Gordon and yes, a lot of it would come down to whether or not he comes down from his ridiculous salary demands. However in terms of someone who can get to the line and flat out score, not many better in the league. In Toronto's offence he would be a great fit scoring-wise but you're right, still not the solution defensively. But he's no Juan Dixon...more of slightly less offensively lethal version of Iverson.

Jamier Kopkono - It's an interesting thought about Bargs. Most of us on the site agree that it's far too early to call a player a bust after a season and a half (check out this interesting break-down by Draftexpress on the last two draft classes: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Much-Ado-About-Nothing-The-Rookie-Season-of-the-2007-Draft-Class-/) but there are obviously legit concerns about playing Bargs at the 5. I think for me it comes down to the same old thing - do you start Bargs or Rasho? Rasho takes the rebounding burden off of CB4 but doesn't have near the upside offensively. At some point BC will have to decide if indeed Bargs is the 5 of the future for this club. Right now though, I think it's still too early to tell.

wt - I like your assesment, though I wouldn't change my untouchable list because I think bargs is going to be much much more valuable in a couple years and will be a franchise player. Ford I don't think can really be traded because he will probably get hurt and retire and everyone knows it. The raps might as well enjoy his services until then. And if he doesn't, he (along with Calderon) is on his way to becoming an elite player. If any of these guys plateau and I stop hearing the words career high every once in a while, then it will be time to move them if needed to take the team to the next level.

Also, I'd gladly keep kapono if we had an elite defender (and assuming tj will be back). That's why artest and gordon look good to me but of course who do you trade to get that talent back?

Mas - have to agree, gordon is a dixon type player, but much much stronger, a little bigger, a better defender, less streaky. Remember when Juan first came to the raptors, he was excellent, but his shot has just stopped falling.

Franchise: I think you might be right about Garbo and perhaps I may have been a bit harsh.

A lot of it depends on how he comes back from his latest surgery.

Two different scenerios will play out and one of those will have two different scenerios.

1. He comes back healthy and all is well.

2. He comes back but is not 100%

2a) His game revolves around doing the dirty work. He rebounds, hustles, guards bigs or smalls and is willing to be the tough guy for a team that needs it. Thus he doesn't have to have much speed, explosivness, agility and can still be effective.

2b)Garbo already lacks athletisism. After coming back from surgery he is even less athletic. As a result he can't keep up on defence at all, can't get himself open for shots, can't get up to rebound and becomes very ineffective.

Lets hope it doesn't end up being 2b....especially since the guy is such a hardworker and good guy (although i didn't like his complaining early in the season)

I agree about the Ben Gordon comments....at best he's a great backup 2 guard. A rich man's Juan Dixon or Fred Jones. I wouldn't pay him more than 6 million a year and anyone that does pay him anywhere near 10 million a year will be trying to move him later on.

Bargs stock is likely as low as it is ever going to be. If BC wants to move him then get him more playing time more touches bring his stock up and then move him.

If you want to keep him then continue as is.

wtf, if Kapono can get the MLE of around $6M per, then Ben Gordon, who averages 20 PPG, shoots 40% from 3 and 90% from the line, is at least $8M. Hey, we're hoping Jose will sign for around $8 and he's better (this season) than Gordon!

As for Pietrus, ah, the "French Jordan". If Member29 comes back I'd be interested in his thoughts why he thinks Pietrus is mediocre on D. Isn't a lot of it having to do with SJax coming in and stealing all his minutes? Last season Pietrus played 27 MPG and got 4.5 RPG, which are Delfino-like numbers.

Obviously seeing all the athletic swingmen taking strips off the Raps in recent weeks (Magette, Ginobili, Kobe, etc., etc.) has made it apparent to BC that the three-headed monster of AP/Delfino/Moon is simply not the answer, so I have no problem with a lateral move to try and resolve this recurring issue. Too bad Bowen's 36, Artest's insane, and the rest of the defensive 3s are either untouchable (LeBron, etc.) or overpaid scrubs (Hassell, Jeffries, MoPete etc.). Maggette is not really a defensive 3 that this team needs, since our 4 and 5s are below-average defenders (that includes Bosh).

Oh yeah, Pietrus also averaged around 1 block and 1 steal per game before Nellie traded for SJax, which suggests he does go after it. He was Fantasy roster-worthy for most of last season (at least, I picked him up). Kind of a Travis Outlaw type in build and skill set.

The thing I'm most interested of is play-offs. Our potential opponent SF's in the first round will be LeBron, Rashard Lewis or Caron Butler. Even though AP, Delf and Moon are above-average defenders I don't see neither of our wings being able to defend them. Come to think about it, the East is constructed around great wings whereas the West is constructed around great PG's and bigs. We seem to be moulded in the veine of the West but I digress here...
We either need a great defender and slasher SF to defend and put pressure on the opposite SF's or we hope that our strengths as a team will overcome whatever individual weaknesses we have. The reality is that with such a bunch of inexperienced NBA players on our roster the coaching staff has to be great to compensate for this obvious problem. IMO we don't have this type of coaching therefore it is on the GM to make us better through trades or drafts. BC had a chance to do this last summer however he blew it.
I still cannot understand why our perimeter defense is so bad when we have relatively good defenders on the wings; maybe the defensive system is wrong?

Great banter, interesting comments, my two cents...

About Pietrus, it sounds like a very safe thing to do, and it never hurts to play it safe. He might be the answer to our SF problem or he might join our long list of almost answers.

Why not try to hit a home run, we need toughness and rebounding, a 'real' starting SF and a back up PG. Sactown has all three. Here it is, Rasho, TJ, Hump and Moon for Miller, Artest and Anthony Johnson.

For Toronto:
We gain instant contender status. Miller starts this year, and until his age catches up to him. Bargs looks great coming off the bench and can step in when he is ready. He is still young and has a lot of years to be a starter. Artest is the wildcard, on paper he is the perfect match but we all know what he has done in the past. If it looks like he has settled down or Smitch is able to handle him, we can re-sign him. If he is loco, we can rent him for this year and let him walk. Anthiny Johnson is a reliable back up and lets Jose get his minutes.

For Scaramento:
They save payroll by swapping Miller for Rasho and they end up getting 3 pretty good prospects for 2 guys that will be leaving them at the end of the year anyways. Moon is opening eyes around the league and has loads of potential. Hump is what he is and adds energy, rebounds and youth at a reasonable price. Ford is the big question mark - as is Artest. If the Kings are willing to take the gamble, he is potentially a very, VERY high reward. If his health doesn't hold up he is on the books for a while.

This trade would never happen if the Raps knew Ford would stay healthy or if they didn't have Calderon, but they don't. TJ still has the potential to be a top PG in the league. It makes little sense to trade such a player when his value is at suck an all time low, but if you want to play it safe trade for Pietrus. This trade might also make the Raps a lot more competitive with the Celtics and Pistons.

Imagine this:

C: Miller, Bargnani, Baston
PF: Bosh, (Bargs) Graham, Garbojosa
SF: Artest, Kapono
SG: Parker, Delfino, Dixon
PG: Calderon, Johnson, Martin

**Sorry for the marathon post**

Trade viability, I agree with Axl's list....maybe I would bump Delfino up a bit, like someone said, he is blossoming still.

When considering trades, we must consider who is still in fact blossoming and improving their skill set, while which roster spots are taken by players who have maximized their potential and/or may be regressing.

This will of course affect the "trade em while their stock is high" philosophy.

I see the following players being able to improve their skills substantially:

Bosh
Ford
Calderon
Bargnani
Moon
Delfino

This is basically the young nucleus that we like.

The following players probably maximized their potential:

Parker
Garbajosa
Rasho
Hump
Dixon
Baston
Martin
Kapono (probably)

I agree with the point that all of our wings, while above average bench players, aren't starters...my opinion it's hard to let go of either Moon Delfino, or Kapono, but it might have to happen.

One thought about our wing position.

There is no way you are really going to stop guys like Kobe, Ginobli, Butler, Maggette and others

If they want to get theres they will.

However what you can do (and what hte raptors certainly do not do) is have someone who can make them work on the defensive end. Kopono, Moon, AP, Delfino are all average offensive players with very little ability to attack the basket or take guys off the dribble.

The result: other team's wing players get to catch their breath on the defensive end. If we had a guy like magette it would certainly make life more difficult for a first round opponent if Butler was constantly worrying about trying to stop a bull like Corey from getting to the basket.

Still not convinced about Ben Gordon and it doesn't matter to me what he does on the offensive end. On the defensive end he is a liability, guys see over him, guys post him up and he's already shown that he isn't a great "team player"

No Trade will come on the raps front. And if they do it will have a minimal affect on our rotation

Playoff Rotation
AB/Bosh/Moon/AP/JC
Rasho/Kapono/Delfino/Ford

With Heavier Minutes For Delfino and Rasho (For D)

Two Players That would Work Well In Raps, Childress (Slight Upgrade over moon, not worth getting through trade), and Salmons (BC had a good eye with this guy, but petrie knows talent, won't let him go)
Artest and Maggette are pipe dreams.

Underused/End of Bench Players that could be traded for dixon/graham/baston

Marcus Vinicius
Kirk Snyder
Elson
Marcus Williams (Spurs)
Yakhouba Diawara
Dahtey Jones
Jus to name a few

Maybe we get one of these guys....but there's no saviour.

Brad Miller is goin to orlando for expiring contracts. and since the raps play them tommorow, it will happen later tonight, and orlando will have like 8 players on a back to back (first game against detroit). Sound Familar?

Anywayz Good Article. Maybe you guys (Franchise/Howland) can list some 'gems' bc may find for a late season push (similar to dixon last year).

Would be interesting to see if BC tries to include Martin in any trade since he's under the same bird rights as Devean George.