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3 In the Key – Toronto Raptors Game-Day Preview vs. Nuggets

George Karl has welcomed Chauncey with open arms...

George Karl has welcomed Chauncey with open arms...

The NBA can be a funny place.

Teams that are expected to be dominant aren’t (Philly and New Orleans so far), others that looked to be basement dwellers are holding their heads high (New York and Atlanta), and finally a few others have turned on the jets and taken the league by surprise.

In the latter category, you’d have to include the suddenly lethal New Jersey Nets, and also the Denver Nuggets.

I don’t think it was a big surprise to anyone that the trade they made to move Allen Iverson was going to work out in their favour more than Detroit in the short term. However for the team to win 11 of 14 under his reign as starting point guard, and enter tonight’s match sporting the second best record in the West?

I think even George Karl would admit to being surprised by this turn of events.

The Nuggets have managed to keep up their up-tempo scoring ways (they are currently tied for 6th in the league in scoring) and yet have used the addition of Billups to help shore up their non-existent defense from last season. Suddenly the team is giving up only an average of 97.9 points a game. Sure it’s middle of the road in terms of the amount of points the average NBA squad allows by opponents but get this; it’s a full two points better than our Toronto Raptors, who are currently allowing a shade under 100 points (99.7!)

The Nuggs are near the top of both the ESPN Power Rankings (number five), and our own NBA blogosphere’s weekly polls (number seven.) The Raptors as you can see…not so high.

So can the Dinos pull out a big win tonight before heading off to Utah? Let’s take a look at our 3 Keys.

1) Production from the Front-Court.

I’ve lumped this one together because there are a few pieces that bear discussion here. First and foremost, Jermaine O’Neal. O’Neal yesterday reported that he’s still day-to-day on the ankle which sounds like he’s a no-go tonight. And that’s not good news for us Raptors’ fans. Denver, like LA, sports a number of athletic bigs in their front-court and I guarantee they’re going to make it as tough as possible for Bosh to get going. Kenyon Martin in fact is exactly the nasty defender Bosh hates playing and while K-Mart is not the K-Mart of Nets days, he’s still going to make Bosh work for everything and hope that when he gets beat, Nene will be looming on the weak side.

This then means that Bosh is going to need Andrea Bargnani to give him lots of help, not just on the offensive end, but defensively and on the glass. It’s too early to say whether Bargs or Bosh will get the assignment on Nene but both will need to move the 7-footer as far away from the hoop as possible to prevent easy put-backs. The Lakers killed Toronto in this fashion on Sunday night and while LA had more length and athleticism, the Raptors still need to zone in tonight against the likes of Nene, Martin, Andersen and Kleiza. The good news is that Denver doesn’t have a great offensive or defensive rebounding rate statistically, so if Toronto’s "bigs" can seize the advantage this evening, that’s one big check mark on the "need to do to win" list.

2) Transition Defence.

With Billups in tow, Denver has been much more effective running their offense in the half-court however make no mistake about it; as their team’s scoring average indicates, this squad can still get out and run. The other major issue Toronto had Sunday against LA was getting stops in transition, and the Lakers ran the ball down the Raptors’ collective throats at every opportunity. I’d rather not see a repeat of that again tonight so hopefully Sam Mitchell stressed the importance yesterday of getting back. As Jack Armstrong alluded, "if you’re not a rebounder, you better get back on D." The Nuggets have the sixth fastest pace in the league while the Lakers are third so there’s not exactly a huge drop-off here. Toronto is going to need to be aware of this and look to stop the ball as soon as it’s evident that Denver has secured a rebound off a miss. Attached to this of course is our first key as if Denver starts getting on the glass a lot more often than Toronto, this is going to lead to quick outlets for the Nuggets’ athletic slashers like JR Smith and Dahntay Jones...and that could mean a lonnnnng night for the Raps.

3) Bench Play.

I can’t stress this enough.

-When Joey Graham comes in and actively looks to get to the rim, good things happen.

-When Roko looks to get into the paint and create, good things happen.

-When Jason Kapono tears around screens early looking for his shot, good things happen.

-When Hump crashes the boards and moves bodies around, good things happen.

Are we noticing a trend here yet?

The Raptors, for all of Bosh’s glory, need the bench to be a productive group, especially in games like tonight’s. Denver isn’t Lakers’ deep off the pine, but they do possess a slew of specialists who can affect the game via long-range shooting (Kleiza), athleticism (Smith), rebounding (Andersen) or even raw effort (Balkman.) Toronto is going to need their own bench to match these specialists stride for stride, and provide a nice boost to the starters. This could be an even bigger advantage as Denver may be playing with a "less than 100 per cent" Carmello Anthony. Anthony is battling a right elbow contusion and while he felt better yesterday (he missed practice), it’s during game-action that it flares up. Here’s hoping that whoever guards Melo tonight is well aware of this and forces the former Orangeman to put the ball on the floor.

The Nuggets lost only five games in November and have the look of a top 5 team in the West. Besides a loss to the pre "we need more shooting guards" trade Warriors, these losses came at the hands of the Lakers twice, Cavs once, and Hornets, pretty much the crème de la crème of the league.

It’s going to be a tough match for the Raptors, especially without JO, however if Toronto can do a good job regarding the keys above, this is definitely a winnable game.

And if things don’t come up roses for the Dinos, at least Sam Mitchell eliminated George Karl in Round 1 of Dallas Basketball.com’s Coaches Slam Dunk Contest…

FRANCHISE

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Looking forward to the Birdman and Hump dropping the gloves. Match made in heaven.

by acie on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

wish birdman was on our team - hes exactly the type of player this team lacks - a hustling, athletic big that knows his role. Key difference between him and hump.

ps - the sam mitchell dunk link was hillarious, love that he took george karls mama home after!

by fromlongrange on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Lot of talk about the Raptors transition defense since the Lakers game. Several times during that game, the anouncer mentioned that Kobe had leaked out to center before the Raps shot even went up. Seems to me while a member of a team on defence is hanging around center court , the offensive team has a 5 on 4. The best response against this kind of defence is to score, send a leaker yourself or have a player remove himself from the offence and stay in the back court. What LA were doing is a gimmick, that works when the other team has poor outide shooting. If the Raps score on those 5 on 4s, the leaking stops

by Rt on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Well, according the estimable Leo Rautins (yuck), JO is suiting up tonight:

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NBA&id=432

... which will be nice since he and Bargs can run interference on KMart and Nene and let CB4 do his thing. If Melo is out of sorts due to his nagging injury, the Raptors have a good shot at pulling this out.

But then I think of all the times Chauncy "Mr. Big Shot" has destroyed the Raps while playing for the Pistons, and wake up.

P.S. Never thought I'd hear the name Balkman again.

by jjdynomite on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Is there any word on JO's status for tonight? Cause last game against the Lakers it sounded like he might have been able to play but then progressed to not dress. I heard an interesting rumour the other day from a friend whos a basketball junkie. He read somewhere that the Raptors are talking with the Heat about a deal that would see Marion coming to Toronto for Moon and Parker. I don't know if theres any real truth to that. I sure hope there isn't. Has anyone else heard of this rumour?

by Thor on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

JO is playing.

JO might play.

JO is not playing tonight.

I've heard all three now so I guess we'll have to see what transpires when things tip off. I really think though he's the key tonight. If he can take Nene, and then leave Bosh with Martin, that leaves Bargs on a banged up Melo and therefore I think gives TO a huge advantage. Even if he can just stand there and box out!

by Franchise on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Probably our best shot out of the games this week to get a W. JO being available would definately help our cause. Go with the big lineup!

Curious to see the Nuggets. With their improved play of late and Detroit's recent decline, this Chauncey guy must be pretty good.

by Tinman on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

All I want is for the Raps to win against a good team. I'm I am asking for so much...sheesh.

by OldSchool on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

correction...sorry
All I want is for the Raps to win against a good team. Am I am asking for so much?

by OldSchool on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Franchise - Here's #4

-JO should not play tonight if there's even a question of it, need him healthy later not at 50% in another almost unwinnable game

I say get used to not seeing this guy on the floor this year. Not pessimism, just a prediction.

by axl on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I'm thinking JO suits up, but barely hits the floor. the game on sunday against Utah is going to be on ESPN, their first this season for an american audience. which might not mean much, or it might give the boys a little something extra to play for.

I would think JO's looking to come back good and ready for that game.

by papa on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Good point about Utah papa and yes, like you Axl I'd rather he be healthy and a boost to the team when he returns. However it always takes a while for Bigs to get adjusted to offences so I'd rather he not sit TOO long if he feels he can go. Worst case scenario would be Bargs getting comfortable at the 4, then starting from scratch at the 3 when JO comes back. Not saying that will happen but the reality is that Bargs is the future in BC's eyes while JO is more of a rental.

by Franchise on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Franchise: About JO being a rental.

I see him in the long term plans for this team - as long as the personal relationship factor remains remain cordial - and of course some semblance of his health is still there.

I bet you we could re-sign him for 'song' of a deal after his final contract year. I think he's the kind of guy who would take a minimum deal to help the team move forward and win - he's hungry for that.

There are somethings that money just can't buy...

by JENGE on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

franchise - mostly just for jokes I argue that JO is more like a "rent to own with an option to buy" and I don't think he'll worth the mle if he's chris webbering around and getting in bargnani's way...

I think it would be interesting to see if this team can succeed with bargnani as a starter and used JO strategically off the bench

by axl on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

not even competing so far!!!
Sad so sad!

by Davl on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

no defense and poor shooting yuk! back to hockey game?

by Davl on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Did anyone else see the latest Raptors piece on Headline Sports (The Score)? It's like they read the script directly off HQ. Discussed the potential to easily be 6 games under .500 by Christmas, and THE SEEMINGLY INEVITABLE FIRING OF SAM!!! They also mentioned the commonly cited ideas for a new coach (Van Gundy, Avery, Saunders). All very awesome, but my post is of another nature. Calderon is simply not playing well enough to be deemed an all-star. Sure the hammy is an issue, and we certainly do not have a better option, but the guy is just not that good this year. Specifically, I am most disillusioned with his passing. Game after game, he is not getting it to the rolling big going to the cup, and missing umpteen opportunities for alley-oops for Graham, Moon, Bosh etc. Remember some of the thunderous Moon alley-oops last year? Might just be a matter of re-committing to keeping his head up, but certainly hoping for improvement there. Well, score is now 47-28 and our defense is more porous than Ray Liotta's face.

by Branden on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Kapono 2 shots in 11 min??? What a waste of $$$$ Billups killing em!

by Davl on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Well that 1st half was nothing short of embarrassing. Simply bad. An objective outside observer would likely find our delusional pre-season ideas that we were going to be hanging with the NBA elite. Unmotivated defense, an un-ending stream of offensive rebounds given up, stagnant offense, tonnes of contested shots etc. Just too much too handle. I am quite honestly down with trading anybody not named Bosh. Guy throws up 16 and 10, with zero supplementary support. And a cherry on the top of this inevitable loss? Pacers beat the Lakers, on the back of big games from Granger, Ford and Rasho. Awesome.

by Branden on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

The time is now to fire this coach. After this trip, it's apparent. Why no life? No inspiration with even Bosh on the court. There has to be a better scheme for this particular team, the're not a bad group! BC knows just the coach he's gonna bring in, he has too. Sam set the table, the teams solid, but a new coach to fire it up a notch, because it ain't happening.

by Juan on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

can this game be called? NOT EVEN A TKO A KNOCK OUT WITH BLOOD! Glad I didn't pay to watch this even if I was a Denver fan I would be pissed to pay for this!34 point lead???Bosh still in the game? Why?

by Davl on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Franchise --

This should be the only word written in your post mortem tomorrow:

http://firesammitchell.com

There's really nothing else left for any of us to say, or for BC to do.

by jjdynomite on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

well, I really think we should all just skip the next couple of days of press. nothing good is going to come of it.

it was a terrible game, no doubt.

but let's just let the dying dog lie.

and btw, roko is going to be good next year. he just really needs that jump shot. hopefully he works on that all summer long.

by papa on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Ettore Messina, is rumored to have missed practice with his Russian team?
Can't wait for a new coach!!

by Andrei on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

wow...I do believe I just heard jack on raps tv allude to sam being the problem for this team. he threw back to lenny and kevin and sort of stopped short of saying that the guys aren't playing for mitchell anymore.

was that just me??

by papa on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Did just see that Papa...even Sherman is having a tough time keeping his critcism at bay.

In my mind this was by far the worst loss of the year. Just embarrassing and hopefully BC has his back up over the loss.

Too many "no energy" nights early in the season and while I don't think this is the last straw, I'd hazard a guess that if the team gets blown out in the next 3, changes will be made. I can't see BC waiting around for much longer than that Dec. 15 date I talked about if the losing continues.

by Franchise on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Some thoughts:
Either Jose Calderon is still hurt significantly or he is just not an elite point guard and shouldn't be overvalued as an integral part of the team's future. He exhibits very little creativity on the offensive end, nothing at all. He simply walks it up and feeds it to Bosh unless the four players covering Bosh force him to consider someone else. The offense is just stagnant and it doesn't force the opponent to exert much energy in defending it so the opponent has more energy to run their own offense, making it much more difficult for the Raptors to defend. Although I am considering drafting a formal letter to Brian Colangelo requesting a coaching change, I want to make it clear that we have to take a serious look at our supposedly stud pieces and ask ourselves..."is this player one of the best at his position or does he at least project to be one of the best very soon? I don't see it with Calderon. There's nothing special there this year and I'm starting to wonder if he's peaked. Maybe I'm wrong, but after this game that's the sense I get.

The Raptors never impose themselves on an opponent, there is no definitive Raptors style of play. That is disappointing. The team is getting to the point where it's starting to lose its sense of how to win. Honestly, we have some talent. losing by upwards of 35 points is inexcusable. There are games where they do not look at the least prepared. Once again, I stress, no creativity.

by Interloper on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

damn! and then sam comes on with the lights on and almost makes me cry! talking about how no coach had to tell him to play hard every night, and that the players should be fighting each other after a game like that.

again, damn. even sam is realizing things are getting out of control. and out of hand. his hands.

I do feel bad for the guy.

by papa on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Man I could listen to Jack all night and he just made a GREAT point about this team.

Sam Mitchell talked about having a great practice yesterday and therefore being extremely disappointed with the way his team came out today. Jack however noted that from his experience, at times practice sessions lead you to believe your team is playing at a higher level because...well...your starters are playing against a less talented bench group, not another team's starters.

He then went on to note that this problem is further exacerbated with the Raptors, who already have a huge hole in terms of bench talent.

As Jack put it - "how can you practice guarding against dribble penetration when you have guys like Jason Kapono and Hassan Adams in your second unit?"

He's right too.

And he's also right about Friday night being a "red alert game." This team needs to come back with some fight and at least push Utah to the limit. Otherwise things could go downhill fast with the December schedule...

by Franchise on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I hear that franchise. jack is good, and he's getting a bit harsher in his criticism. he pulled back a bit as the commentary went on, but to me there's no doubt his whole rant was aimed straight away at the coaching staff, mentioning the players only as under performing artists in the whole of the play.

but right after the game, he was practically seething.

awesome to see.

by papa on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Is it ridiculous for me to suggest we begin fundraising amongst us fans to cover the balance of Sam Mitchell's contract if that is the only thing holding MLSE back from making a coaching change? I would consider it an investment in my quality of life it could translate into a more entertaining and competitive brand of basketball. The coach has run his course with the team, even though we can't lay all the blame at his feet, we need a fresh voice. Honest to goodness if we could bring in a Messina or a Blatt right now, why not do it and see how far the team can get after such a drastic change. This team has to take a smart risk at the coaching level to get the most out of the parts we have now. I think the only way we match the tacticians is by bringing in a tactician who can think the game and properly exploit advantages. I'm not a fan of an NBA retread or ex player (see Pistons, Detroit). My fascination with the Euro coach possibility is the likelihood of him bringing some fresh ideas that the opposing coaches will have to adapt to. Ok, I'm rambling but when the reality is so disheartening the only tonic is hope of new possibilities

by Interloper on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Franchise, Howland and Vicious...Forgive me for the swearing that may occur. God dammit that was disgusting. I am sick and f*ckin tired of seeing the same stuff done over and over. It doesn't work.Get a new f*cking game plan. Remember Plan B? Well we need a Plan C and thats to fire Sam's ass. His time is up, get him out of there. Shit I'm pissed off over this. The team doesn't look like they are playing for Sam anymore. Thanks for the years Sam but your services are up.

by Thor on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Thor - no worries, I think many are sharing your angst.

I'm going to bed, D's on the recap, but I'm sure there will be plenty of discussion had by all in the AM.

Sleep well with visions of Billups draining open 3's all...

by Franchise on Dec 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Andrei,
do you have a link for the rumor about Messina?

by renato on Dec 3, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

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