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3 In the Key – Toronto Raptors Game Day Preview vs. Hawks

The schedule makers are socking it to the Raptors...

The schedule makers are socking it to the Raptors...

If the schedule is a world champion boxer, the Raptors took a few big shots in the first round, dug into the canvas, and then used their best weapon to try and stop the momentum building up against them.

Unfortunately, that world champion boxer is about to unload a world of hurt on the Raptors.

Going into tonight, the Raptors have faced a myriad of challenges and misfiring parts within the first 14 games of the season.

The beginning of the year saw Jermaine O'Neal struggling to carve his niche before finding his way, and then getting sidelined with injuries.

The point guard position has been in flux thanks to a hamstring injury that continues to bother Jose Calderon, and the misplaced trust in Will Solomon's ability to figure out the position. The result? Calderon has had to force himself to come back early and to continue to play extended minutes on a bad leg.

Toss in AP's inconsistent shooting, and the confusing mire of Gramoopono which may, or may not be figuring itself out, and the Raptors head into a stretch of games trying to get all parts moving in the same direction.

So far, the main constants have to be Chris Bosh's outstanding overall play, and Andrea Bargnani's renewed defense.

However in my eyes at least, there seems to be a feeling that the rotations are finally straightening out in the way that we at the HQ and other fans have been clamoring for. Joey Graham is now obtaining the opportunities to get the minutes he's been missing since two years ago, Bargnani has started to extended his streak of good offensive games, and Roko Ukic is now the back up point guard who actually plays like a point guard and seems to be improving drastically on his defensive game.

Put in a recovered Jermaine O'Neal and things might not be as bad as we once thought.

But against the Hawks, the Raptors will find themselves tested. The Hawks are a dangerous team, and although they've fallen somewhat back down to earth after their hot start, (like they have every year) the plodding Raptors still need to approach this game with caution against a deadly foe. It's therefore essential that they accomplish these three keys if they hope to win:

1) Minutes -

Against a fast, young team, Sam Mitchell is going to have to try and get his guys enough rest so that they can finish down the stretch. Having appropriate relief for Parker and Calderon will be vitally important as Bibby and Johnson have the ability to both penetrate and shoot the outside shot. It's not going to be a walk in the park, and there's no simple strategy unlike in the Bobcats game. When it comes down to it, Parker and Calderon, as well as their backups Ukic and Kapono/Moon will have to play strong defense that leads them into a contested shot. If Michell balances the minutes, he should be able to get more high level production from his starters.

Also, I'm looking for a lot of Andrea Bargnani in this game. Besides being an offensive threat, he'll be needed both at the post and at the 3-position to make sure Marvin Williams and Ronald Murray don't go off for big nights. So staying out of foul trouble for both him and Graham is essential in making sure that the Raptors' rotation doesn't get thrown out of wack.

2) Combat Athleticism by... -

Roughing up the Hawks. Sure, it might not be in the Raptor's natural nature, but this is a Hawks team that handed them their first embarassing loss and has been the source of much drama over the past couple of years. I'm hoping Kris Humphries (and Jermaine O'Neal if he plays - he's listed as Day-to-Day at this point) will throw his body around and make sure that guys like Joe Johnson and Al Horford take a beating in the paint. The Raptors have to start sending a message that coming into the paint may get you points, but there will be consequences. It's something that they haven't shown much of, but there's no better team to start making an example of than the Hawks.

The other way the Raptors can limit the Hawks is by getting them into a foul trouble.

Although Jermaine O'Neal won't be playing, the Hawks missing out on Josh Smith due to high ankle sprain is also a pretty significant loss. However, Marvin Williams is another athletic beast, so the best way the Raptors can take advantage of the situation is to draw fouls and draw them early. Unfortunately, outside of Bosh and O'Neal, that doesn't happen nearly often enough. It's why Bargnani's production and getting to the line is so important to this team. In his day, Butch Carter always emphasized the importance about racking up fouls and making foul shots because it meant that you got to play less minutes against their starters, and you could rest your team more every time they went to the line.

With only Bosh getting to the line consistently now, it means it's just that much tougher for the Raptors because they have to face the opposition's starters for practically the entire game. Graham, a good free throw shooter, along with Bargnani, need to be used more in this vein, but it takes experience to draw fouls consistently. Guys like Al Horford should be extremely susceptible to pump fakes and most of the Hawks' team is young, so the best way to combat that youth is by being crafty.

3) Watch Out for Johnson -

Oh, Joe Johnson loves playing against the Raptors. In his career, he's shot 4% higher and averaged 2 points more against Toronto than his regular career stats. He's made shots from all over the court and just happens to turn it on for at least one quarter where he just can't miss a shot no matter what Toronto does to counter him. Sure, he's also had quarters where he's missed many shots, but it'll be up to Toronto to limit his chances once he starts to catch fire. That means recognizing when he has the hot hand and to start doubling him early and trapping hard so that he has no room.

The other idea is to put Johnson through a thorough workout by setting picks on him on many offensive plays. It'll mean that Parker, Moon, and Kapono should get lots of screens in order to make sure Johnson tires himself out over the course of the game. Bosh and Bargnani will have to make sure their picks are extra solid and in position in order to make Johnson work on both ends of the court.

Without a doubt, this game will be a tough challenge, but the Raptors are playing at home, and have a little momentum thanks to the Bobcats game. It will be a while before our team returns home, so it's best to make this game count because it might be a long, long road trip up ahead.

Vicious D

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Amazing how, with the addition of a proven point guard (Bibby), the Hawks are no longer a laughingstock. Still, can't imagine what this team would be like if they had drafted Chris Paul instead of Marvin Williams.

They definitely need to get physical with this team, if only as payback for what Horford did to T.J. Ford last year. I still can't believe no one on the Raptors challenged Horford over that.

by Skywalker on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I'd like to see us go with a regular rotation of 10 guys, subbing in often. JO/KH, CB/AB, JG/JM, AP/JK & JC/RU should be the pairings. Most of them have fairly similar games, so continuity of style might increase. Only JG & JM need be monitored more closely, since what we need them to do on O is screen, pick & get the O-rebs!

by Boko on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Assume that the Raptors will lose this game because I just don't see them being able to handle the Hawks athleticism. I think the difference for the Hawks with Bibby in the line up is that they are a more balanced team. None of their players (outside of Johnson) can be considered spectacular at their respective positions in comparison to others in the league but they are good enough and athletic enough to compensate for any weaknesses and competitive against their individual match ups.

As a Raptors fan, in watching games I expect them to lose I just want to see progress. Can Andrea Bargnani continue his development and become a special kind of small forward who can guard 4s, and 5s as well. Can Joey Graham become a serviceable backup 3/4 who brings energy and offense every night. Can Kris Humphries keep doing what Kris Humphries does best and not try to do more? Can Jose make the opposing point guard work so that he compensates for his deficiencies on the defensive end? If I see this during the course of the game, win or lose, it provides a reason for optimism that maybe this team could be very good eventually.

by Interloper on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Grange has been on the ball lately. Take a look at his blog breakdown of part of the Charlotte game if you haven't already seen it. I almost gave up on him as one of my regular reads, but this is pretty good.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081127.WBwbbasketball20081127135525/WBStory/WBwbbasketball/#comments

by Interloper on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

"Assume that the Raptors will lose this game because I just don't see them being able to handle the Hawks athleticism." Interloper I think you are just being pesimistic because you have no confidence in the Raps and you want to soften the blow should incase they lose...the Raps is a much better team than the Hawks hands down. The game in Atlanta was just one of those games where Atlanta's confidence was high with the good start, now that they are back down to earth it will be a totally different team than the one we played in Atlanta. The Raps are bigger and have better shooters and more experience than the Hawks that should counter the Hawks athleticism, plus throw in the Raps fans at home and this will be a W for the Raps. Raps just have to defend their position, help only when its imparative on Joe Johnson and like VD says, trap him get the ball out of his hands and JC has to stay infront of Bibby and turn him into traffic. We have athleticism as well, JG, JM, Bosh,AB are all atheltic players so this should be a very good game and its time for Payback fow what they did to TJ last year.....Raps4Life

by RAPS4LIFE on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Raps4Life, was just looking at the situation realistically. Marvin Williams is playing well, Horford is solid, Joe Johnson is very good when on and Mike Bibby always plays well against the raps when healthy. Word from Doug Smith is JO is not starting putting Moon in the starting line up moving Bargs to the five, so we might have an advantage at two positions when you consider the starting lineups (PF and C). Also take into account that the degree of that positional advantage for the Raps isn't as significant (Horford can be competitive against Bosh at the 4) as the Hawks positional advantage at the other three spots. Lastly, the Hawks come in playing better than the Raps who have yet to hit their stride hence my assumption of a loss. Going forward, being honest about the teams chances makes watching the games more enjoyable because you're not focused solely on the win or loss and can appreciate the small victories and little signs of progress toward potential championship level play. That's my take, wasn't trying to soften any blows and it wasn't a case of losing confidence. Objective fandom, plain and simple.

by Interloper on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Well Interloper my fellow fan and I know we both love the Raps.. for me there is no moral victories a win is a win and a loss is a loss. I feel like a player, watching every game I expect the Raps to win, do they?..NO..But there are some teams that I just don't expect the Raps to loose against and Atlanta is one of them, The Raps should beat all the 2nd tier teams if they expect to move to the next level and run with the Bostons, Detriot and Cav's of the East which is hardly a spot for the Hawks, so I realy don't enjoy the games when the Raps loose because I focus solely on a W everytime they suit up. But I do understand your rationalle...I did that during the preseason but its for keeps now and if we keep losing you know what will happen...lottery.....Raps4Life

by RAPS4LIFE on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Interesting quote from Amare:

Stoudemire said, "You've got LeBron James who's a featured guy. You've got Dwyane Wade. He's a featured guy. Dwight Howard? They go to him. Chris Bosh? They go to him.

"Bottom line: I want to be that guy. I want to show the league and the world that I feel like my game has improved to that level."

by ustation on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Asked whether he thinks about his own availability in 2010, Stoudemire didn't hesitate: "Absolutely! You have to look at those opportunities because this is a business and you want to explore every option. I guarantee you every owner will explore their options, especially when a player's contract is up. So it's the same for players. It's definitely the same for me.

"As a player, you should look at the teams you might want to play for. The city you may want to live in. The system you may want to play in. The economy. The cost of living. Everything. It's about what's best for you."

Add another BIG scary head to that 2010 Monster

by ustation on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

One of the huge advantages of Bargnani is that he is flexible enough to play two or even three positions. He is being passed around from position to position like the village bicycle. We should remember this when evaluating his play.

by observer on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Raps4Life, the lottery happens sometimes and can be a precursor to a championship foundation if the scouting staff is on the ball, which I don't always think is the case with this team. One disastrous season that forces a lottery visit wouldn't be too bad if the goal is a championship competitive team for several years. Would you trade one more bad year for seven in the company of the elite? See the Spurs with Duncan, or even Boston drafting Greene, turning him into Ray Allen and making their situation more attractive for Garnett to agree to come over.

You're a fan for the long haul I take it so if you look at the current Raptor pieces and come to conclusion that a lot of them aren't going to eventually contribute to a championship, you can look forward to ANY opportunities to replace those pieces with better pieces without disrupting your core.

Honestly, this team had its growth spurt a little early two years ago and it kind of forced adjustments in the outlook. Suddenly someone like AP goes from being a solid piece to bridge the gap between a team rebuilding and a team ready to compete at a high level eventually to an overly relied on part of a team expected to compete now.

Even consider the drafting of Bargnani and how that was more of a long-view approach than something that was supposed to pay off so soon.

Looking at it that way, they are doing well to be a .500 team, but now that I've pissed the Kool-Aid out of my system I don't mind waiting it out, having concluded that a lot of what's here now won't get the team where all of us want it to be.

by Interloper on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

You want to talk about having an edge in the 2010 year. Given how our dollar has trended and the fact that players get payed in American dollars, it makes our 100 million dollar contracts worth $120 million to these guys. Hey Lebron, the Knicks will pay you $200 million over six years? Well, come to the Raps and that $200 million is worth $240 million. Who can pass up $40 million?

by Casey on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Any chance that Denver would do J.R. Smith + Chris Anderson for Kapono and Moon?

by Casey on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Casey, although it might be cheaper for LeBron to throw down his Benjamins in the Richmond Street club district, you can't forget that the Canadian tax structure is still more onerous for multimillionaires. As JO said himself:

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/NBA/article/508512

Maybe Obama will level it out a bit more, but I think the top Canadian tax bracket is about 40% and the US is 35%:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_bracket

That's a huge difference. And it's not like they spend much time in Canada anyway when the season is done.

by jjdynomite on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

The other side to the Tax situation is that going to a Doctor here is Free (for landed and Citizens I believe) so medical cost offset this a bit (i am sure most teams in the US cover the costs of the players but i am not sure if they cover their immediate families as well). Combine that with a lower crime rate and you still get most of the US channels, I really do not think this is as big an issue as it was 10 years ago. Remember, most of the bitching happened in the first 10 years or so of the NBA being in Canada. I think most of the players know things are not as bad as they thought there were back in the day (I believe Carter was even hinting last year that he wanted to come back to Toronto although that could have been to soften up the fans a little). There will always be players who won't player here but you could say the same for almost every NBA city (not everyone wants to play in the limelight of NY).

by McGateway on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I really want our team to do well but let's be realistic. I had them pegged to be 3-4 games under 500 by the end of December and that's where they're going to be. If they get it going in the new year they'll make the playoffs. Next summer we have to find a better starting swingman. End of story.

by Ian Johnson on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Perfect example of poor coaching. Hawks trying to slack off Moon by throwing Bibby on him. Earth to Sam. Give it to Moon and instruct him that he will be benched if he does not post him up or drive. C'mon man, wake up.

by Branden on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Post-game thoughts:

A little shaky at the end, but probably the best TEAM win of the season.

Hats off to Parker for his D on Joe Johnson, great to see Joey tearing it up again, solid minutes by Hump, Kapono and Moon, and of course Bosh, what can you say. It's ridiculous that he wasn't on ESPN's top 10 for MVP consideration earlier this week. He's just carrying this club.

Hopefully now this game gives the entire team the confidence they need which will only bode well for when JO returns.

HOWEVER...

Thought Sam almost blew this one with a few coaching decisions late in the game:

1. Putting Jose back in. Believe it or not, I wanted Will. Jose made that one dribble drive but was just abused defensively. Solomon's defence was much better and once Calderon returned, the lead almost immediately shrunk to 3.

2. Putting Bargs back in. Yep, Andrea was again the victim of some WEAK calls but he wasn't rebounding or hitting shots, and I thought that Sam should have left Bargs out and Hump in.

That being said - both teams made some questionable decisions (where was ZaZa at the game's end???) and both took some SUSPECT shots in crunch time (the Bosh 3 followed up by Joe Johnson's Hail Mary.)

by Franchise on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Anybody else count to "5" on the last inbounds play? I nearly had heart failure on that one.

by Jdbar93 on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

looks like Colangelo's annual closed door meeting with Mitchell has done some good...

by axl on Nov 28, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

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