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3 In the Key – Toronto Raptors Game-Day Preview vs. Magic

These folks need to learn how to bet on Raptors' red...

These folks need to learn how to bet on Raptors' red...

I’m pretty sure I’m awake but not quite sure:

a) What day it is.
b) What time it is.
c) Why I keep hearing the dinging of slot machines in my head.

Yep, Howland and I are back from our Vegas trip and while we didn’t get to film the Heat game recap like we wanted to in the sports book, we did have a good time and some of us even had a good run at the roulette table…

…thanks to the Raptors.

In what was one of the funniest parts of our excursion, our Halifax associate, the Big Chill, started playing only on red his first night, in what we were referring to as "Raptors red." Not only did he start hitting a streak, but it got to the point at Caesar’s Palace where red had come up so many times in a row that people started laying down huge bets on black against him.

And they kept losing.

All the while he would tell the other players "look, you gotta hop on the red train, it’s Raptors’ red all day."

And after about ten straight reds we had a huge crowd around us and a number of guys’ girlfriends urging their significant others to stop betting on black ha ha.

It even got to the point where when we switched to the numbers, numbers like Pape Sow’s number 9, Chris Bosh’s number 4, and various others were seeing lots of action.

Bottom line?

You really can’t go wrong using the Raptors’ as your betting scheme!

A few links before we swing into our compadre Vicious D’s preview of tonight’s game. (Big shout out to him for holding down the fort while we were away.)

First off, a great read from yesterday’s Toronto Sun that was actually written by one of our regular readers, (who also puts in time as an occasional impromtu copy-editor) which discusses the fervor of the Raptors’ online fan-base.

It’s great to see the online support this team gets and the article is further proof that Toronto has the best fan-base in the business.

Also, from the Sun, it appears that an Australian newspaper has been reporting that Nathan Jawai’s NBA career may sadly be over. He reportedly has an enlarged heart and if his condition does not improve over the next six weeks, it might be the end of the line for the "Aussie Shaq."

From around the NBA blogoshpere, the weekly power rankings are up at True Blue Jazz.

The Raptors took a dip both here and on ESPN.com’s weekly poll.

There's a tough schedule of games on the immediate horizon so hopefully a couple solid wins over the next week will buoy the squad…

FRANCHISE

So, it'll be part one of the two part swing through the State of Florida.

Out of all the match ups for the past couple years, I've always been interested in how the Raptors stack up against the Magic. This will be the first time these two teams meet since their playoff battle last year, and the Raptors will undoubtedly be looking to sending a message that they've improved. A year ago, the Raptors smacked New Jersey around after their first round exit the previous year, so can we hope for the same against the Magic?

My magic 8-ball says "not likely".

After a sluggish start, the Magic have become a top team defensively. At 93.3 points per game, only teams such as Utah, Houston, and Boston are ahead of them in lowest opponent point totals. The Magic are the second team overall in the Eastern Conference in that category. Toss in the NBA's newest "Superman", Dwight Howard with the great mind of Stan Van Gundy, and the Raptors will have to do more than just go through the motions...

...especially since Jose is still being listed as a game-time decision.

Actually, this will indeed be a nice little test to see how the newly reformed starting unit really handles pressure. Unlike the Miami Heat, the Magic have starters that have cohesion, as well as a front court that will not be a push-over. In fact, it's kinda ironic that Bargnani will be starting at the three again, especially considering how epic of a failure the experiment was last year in the playoffs.

Anyways, let's get down to business:

1) Exploit Dwight Howard's Weaknesses -

By now, I'd hope everyone knows exactly how to play Dwight Howard. Rasho Nesterovic was simply a master at pushing Dwight Howard out to an ineffective range, so it'll be up to Jermaine O'Neal to play him the same way. The key of course, is to make Howard take lots of shots that are mostly of the face-up variety, and as far as possible away from the basket. In the instance he gets into your interior, don't be afraid to hack him and send him to the free throw line.

It'll be a test for Jermaine O'Neal and Chris Bosh to handle him for the entire game, but as long as they follow the rules, the Raptors should be relatively safe. I expect to see lots of Kris Humphries mixing it up in there as well, and possibly less of Bargnani at the 3 if the front court quickly racks up fouls. How they play Howard and choose to use their fouls will determine a lot about rotations in today's game. But let's face it, there's just no easy way to wrestle around a guy as strong and physically imposing as Howard.

Perhaps the biggest test will be for Jermaine O'Neal who has yet to face up against a power center with so much skill. Sure, Kevin Garnett was a lot to handle, but he's nowhere near as strong as Howard is. It's therefore imperative that the Raptors attack the basket and rack up lots of fouls on Howard to take him out of his game. I look forward to seeing Jermaine O'Neal draw some fouls against the big Man-Child.

Jermaine O'Neal is going to have his work cut out for him tonight...

Jermaine O'Neal is going to have his work cut out for him tonight...

2) Keep the Secondaries Away From the Glass -

Yes, Dwight Howard can kill you on the glass, but the rest of the Magic aren't averaging shady numbers either. With all starters averaging at least three rebounds per game and a very dangerous Tony Battie coming off the bench, the Raptors will need a special effort from their wings to control and fight for rebounds.

In fact, to take advantage of their superior field goal % advantage against the Magic, the Raptors have to make sure that they maximize the amount of possessions they have within the game by getting as many rebounds as possible. There just can't be sloppy box outs by Jamario Moon this game as even players such as Jameer Nelson can average four rebounds per game. Toss in the fact that players such as Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu will burn you on second chance point opportunities, and the Raptors need to make sure they win the battle of hustle plays. Which leads us to...

3) Stay on Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu -

You know, I'm not going to envy Bargnani for the night. I get the feeling that if he's not chasing both Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu on the defensive end, he's going to banging bodies with Tony Battie and Dwight Howard. In any case, both Lewis and Turkoglu are dangerous threats that can go off at any particular time. Averaging 34 points between them, the Raptors have to make sure at least one of the two is forcing up low percentage shots.

In fact, it's surprising that Turkoglu's 3-point shooting has been particularly bad this year. Shooting only 29 percent, the Raptors should still be wary of his touch. But more importantly, the Raptors must be aggressive on switches and pick and rolls that will free up Pietrus and Nelson. Pietrus in particular, is the only Magic player to be shooting above 40% (45.2%) from beyond the arc, so the Raptors must close out on him.

However on the flip side, the Raptors should be able to exploit match-ups against both Lewis and Turkoglu. Barganani's length in particular, along with his shooting touch and newfound aggressiveness, will make it difficult for both players to guard him. If Andrea attacks and slashes through the paint, or posts up, neither player should be able to stop him consistently. If Bosh and Bargnani manage to set picks for each other, it may cause a long night for Turkoglu who doesn't have the strength to defend either big man. The added effect of course, is that it's a perfect way to wear down the legs of both Lewis and Turkoglu; players that excel at moving without the ball.

In many ways, the Magic are the kind of dangerous team that the Raptors should be able to beat. Both teams match up fairly well and seem to compliment each other. Even though the Magic won last year's playoff series, I've always felt the Raptors had the Magic's number throughout the regular season. If the Raptors' chemistry hadn't fallen apart so badly before the playoffs and if they hadn't completely lost their identity, the outcome of the series would not have been as short and bitter.

Instead, the Raptors enter another season looking to get through the first round of the playoffs.

Sounds a lot like Kevin Garnett's first years in Minny, doesn't it?

However, that should give this Raptors team all the perrogative it needs to beat the Magic. If you want to prove that you're better than last year's team, you're going to have to start correcting some of those mistakes you made the previous year.

Numero Uno?

Send a message to the Magic.

Vicious D

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hey Franchise, Howland,
if you missed the game in an hour you can still get it here:
http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=852904

by renato on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Thanks renato - we caught the final quarter at the Sports Book and I caught the game in an hour yesterday after getting back. Really excited about tonight's match-up. As D mentioned, these two teams are very similar on paper in many respects so it should be a good test.

by Franchise on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I have a feeling that we might not see that much of the "3 Bigs" lineup -- I don't see Bargnani being able to keep up with Lewis or Hedo for an extended stretch, and I don't think that you want Bosh chasing those guys around screens all game.

I see Moon (and maybe even Graham) getting some time at the 3 pretty early in the game.

Hopefully someone can get a few quick fouls on Howard, because the Magic bench is a major weak spot.

by BC on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

BC,
of course it is a speculation (but everything written beforehand is, isn't it?) but the same could be said at the other side of the court, moreover I like particularly the added creativity that it is added when Andrea has the ball in his hands and the screens he and JO and Bosh can create for him that can result either in a bucket from down low from Andrea or him reopening for Jose (Will), Kapono, Parker. This particularly is not affected by the presence of Howard. I see the Raps involving more and more Andrea and taking advantage of his passing skills once the defense has been moved because of his slashing.... (if you think back a few months you really could not see this coming :) )

by renato on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Definately a good test for Bargnani.

Anyone knows Jose's situation?

by Tinman on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Think this might be torontos best test yet. I dont expect the raps to be better than boston and i think philly is overrated so its teams like detroit, cleveland and orlando that i really want to see them play well against. Think that might be the best way to get an idea of where the season will go.

by fromlongrange on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

REALLY looking forward to this game!

Big test for JO tonight. He was brought in specifically for games like this (regular season and playoffs). To even the playing field against the elite post-players such as the Man-child (D Howard), to add a litlle muscle and to change the demeanour of a team that was much to accommodating in the past. I especially loved this quote from Feschuk’s article this morning:

"O'Neal seemed surprised at the admiration for Howard by certain members of Toronto's media – "You guys seem like (his) biggest fans," said O'Neal – and it's great to hear the local starting centre express just-another-game indifference in the face of an impending collision with human granite."

What is most encouraging regarding this quote is JO’s "so what" attitude. That’s the type of attitude or "swag" that has been missing from this team over the years and this is another opportunity for O’Neal to lead by example and change this team’s mindset. Let’s hope the "swag" translates into a win.

Mark my words, if JO leads by example and challenges this team to follow suite, and they are able to contain Howard and win this game… This could be a watershed moment. The team has yet to formulate an identity but its wins like this (if they do win of course) that forge that identity. By simply exercising the ghost of last season, they have an opportunity to shed the label of being a "soft" team. Big game indeed!

by MAS on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Did anyone hear MLSE CEO Richard Pettie on the Fan590 yesterday saying the "door is open" for BC to go over the tax level, if the right deal comes along, at the trade deadline?

Read it on Ryan Wolstat's Courtside blog @ the Sun.

by Johnn19 on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I know orlando is playing some decent team defense as of late, (stats wise,) but I don't remember either hedo or lewis being lockdown defenders.

I think it's good to remember that bosh usually goes wild against this team. and now that he doesn't have to bang with superboyman as much - watch out. as long as jermaine 'the headband' o'neal can stay on the floor with howard, bosh wins.

and then there's andrea. if he can bring even half the stuff he's been bringing as of late, hedo don't stand a chance.

so yeah, call me crazy but I won't be too surprised if it's the magic whom should be a little more worried about the match-ups.

(now please don't make a fool of me bargs or headband)

by papa on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

"Vicious D"

I'll pay you cold-hard cash to change your name

by Rishi on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Watch for crappy homer calls designed to give superman an advantage forcing O'neil rides the bench.

by Rt on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I'm hoping to see a little of Bargs on Howard just to see how far his interior big man defence has come along. After the job he did on Brand I think he has the potential to really handle big bodies well, and I bet we'll get a chance to find out when JO gets in foul trouble. Go Raps.

by RaptorsAddict on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Are there any Philthy McNasty plans for this Friday against New Jersey??

by Rishi on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Interesting about the luxury tax John. Somehow I don't quite believe Petty, mostly because of his past dealings with the club, but at least the door might be open in that regard. The real question then becomes what area does the team need to address the most if they CAN go over the tax limit; the back-up point guard spot, the 3, or even the bench, especially if Jawai is done. And Bargs' play the next while will go a long ways in determining that.

Also - while we were away, did any of the local media press Mitchell as to his flip-flop on starting Andrea? It's something he said he wasn't going to do earlier this year...

by Franchise on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

RA - It'll be interesting to see Bargs on Howard, but for other reasons. It's not going to be the same as Brand unfortunately, because Brand and Howard's games are really quite opposite of one another. I just don't see Bargnani being able to push Howard out far enough before he starts backing down Bargs. But I hope he figures out something. What they can hope for is just that Bargnani will make him take enough time so a help defender can try and come over and strip the ball away or trap him before he gets into the post. That, and give Howard some hard fouls.

by Kinnon Yee on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

kinnon yee, have to agree with you. can't see bargs doing much to stop howard. that's one tough, tough match up for him.

and franchise yeah, the media did give him the business but because it was only made official the day of the maimi game, and because the gamble worked, it was pretty much left alone.

now had it not worked, like in the playoffs last year...the guy probably would have needed a personal security detail to get out of the building.

still might, actually. cause the first game it doesn't work, (like, say, tonight against the other biggest front court in the east,) stuff could hit the fan in a real quick minute.

by papa on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Put me in the camp of people who thinks that going big might be a bad idea. with the current line up, and Bargs' improvements, then maybe.

But last year in the play offs, it was a tactically stupid move. They would give Howard the easy match up against Rasho, and then have Bosh and Bargs trying to guard Hedo and Rashard on the perimeter. It was like watch a slow stupid trainwreck.

I would have gone small, forcing a Boward/Bosh macth up. While we'd be giving up a lot on D, Howard can't keep up with Bosh. Never could, never will. It would have been quick fouls and then pine for Howard. Or atleast, that was our best chance in my estimation.

by TJ Caino on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

it's hard to be too upset about this loss. it stings, no doubt, but 24 turnovers would just never happen with jose on the floor.

it's just a shame for bosh. he put in an MVP worthy effort. o'neal did what he was supposed to do in keeping howard in check.

the wings. no production. ugh.

by papa on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

If this game didn't convince Sam to use Joey Graham then nothing will. I am now convinced that Joey tried to mack on Sam's wife and thats why he can't get any burn.

by Todd on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

ONeil plays like a man

Bosh is a true leader and superstar no quit in Him

Anybody else play for the raptors tonight?

by Davl on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Someone needs to tell Sam its 6 to foul out, not 5. Way too quick on the hook.

by SonicSuper on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

hmmmm, just thinking and I know you guys here at the HQ always bring up the doc rivers thing when talking about coaching not really being the be all, end all...but looking at this game, I can't help but wonder how reliant this team is on a PG that essentially runs one play. (to perfection, no doubt. but still.)

even phoenix with nash, when he went down, the system sort of kept going. not as well, obviously, but still.

and now with new york playing half decent basketball??

a few more plays wouldn't hurt.

by papa on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Wow. How long do you think this Bargnani at the 3 thing will go on. Painful.

I, for one, am ready to drink Joey G. Koolaid. I have about as much hope that he will be the answer as I do of dating Jessica Alba (if she'd just go out with me once...). Well, if Sam just once gave Joey a 5 game run! He's done okay in the times he's played this year - usually earns him the hook? What the hell? We know what Moon, Kapono, and Bargs will give us. Give Joey a chance. We really have nothing to lose.

by EaseMyPain on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Thought I was listening to Chuck again tonight when the talk turned to keeping the 3 pt streak alive.Even in the post game crap! Bosh and O'Neil was the Raptor highlights tonight not the dam streak being kept alive

by Davl on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

For this particular game it was about timing. This game should have been over early in favour of the Raptors but the point guards held the ball too long, or didn't get the pass into the post when the big was in position to make something of it. They were playing well enough to accomplish a major run early and they just didn't do it. Another winnable opportunity lost, which is the most concerning aspect of the season thus far.

It would be interesting to see how good of an indicator a team's record after ten games is of the projected season success. Watching this team so far, I just don't get the sense that it is playing at the level of the really good teams, and the strange thing is the rosters of those really good teams aren't necessarily awe inspiring. They simply play to their strengths and get the most out of what they have each night (Cleveland). This team hasn't done that...for years. Hmmm..Jays brought back Cito Gaston and realized some success, Cliff Fletcher did an ok job with the Leafs. Dare I say Butch Carter? Maybe I'm just a tired young man spouting crazy, experiencing a revisionist moment of purple haze, but that man could coach and I'm sure he's following the Raptors and could get up to speed in no time with the same group of assistants as is currently in place. Ten games in, just get a feel it's not going to work. Time for change.

If this site could ever land a Butch Carter interview, that would be GOLD.

by Interloper on Nov 18, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

This was the game we knew was coming. 24 turnovers !
It was 2 on 5 for most of the night.
Bosh was simply amazing and I think the O'Neal doubters have a little less to talk about.

by Tinman on Nov 19, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Interloper says:

good teams "simply play to their strengths and get the most out of what they have each night (Cleveland). This team hasn't done that...for years."

How many years has Sam Mitchell been here?

by observer on Nov 19, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I think solomon's play was much less at fault for this loss than our wing play.

He spazzed out a bit, but really he's in over his head at this point and I think there's reason to hope he'll come along as a backup. Especially if he can score efficiently like he did early - before he fell apart. Roko too in a couple years.

The complete no-show by bargnani was really frustrating though. Hard to know who to blame, him or the game plan, but he was a non-factor on both ends.

by axl on Nov 19, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Anybody want to set up an over-under for how many games below .500 it would take for Sam to go? I would love to know what BC expected in the first 10 games with this roster, albeit without Calderon for two. I am so torn currently, as an extended losing streak may actually deliver a new coach, but I hate feeling like I have wasted 3 hours of my life watching games they lose.

by Branden on Nov 19, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I'm hoping two things:

That this is just another slow start for Parker and not his age catching up to him.

Solomon's left hand is just more nervous than his right. How many NBA PG's can't dribble with both hands? That's a serious whole in his game that will be exposed nightly.

by Raptoronto on Nov 19, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

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