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Did We Draft the Wrong Guy?



Bye bye Tony Parker.

So long Dirk Nowitzki.

After losses yesterday to Russian and Spain respectively, France and Germany find themselves on the outside of the Final Four in Spain, looking in.

A surprising Russian club led by J.R. Holden and Victor Khryapa knocked off France 75 to 71 in a match that featured some ghastly free-throw shooting by the French. France shot 45 per cent (nine for 20) from the line in the game and this proved to be their undoing as Russia now moves on.

And as for Germany, after knocking off Andrea Bargnani and his Italian club, Dirk Diggler scored only 11 points and took only 10 shots in the loss. As Sergi P mentioned in his comments regarding the game, it seemed like Spain was honed-in on Nowitzki the entire match and without Dirk, Germany was overwhelmed in the 83-55 loss.

Today, Lithuania and Croatia meet while Greece plays Slovenia for a shot at the Final Four.

Turning back to Bargnani, there was some interesting discussion regarding his play and potential. His numbers definitely weren't staggering for Italy and his team disappointed many.

In addition, the areas which seemed to need the most improvement, statistically didn't seem to progress and from all acounts Il Mago just didn't seem to be on his A game.

This brings up a few points then.

Was his play more the product of the Italian system?

Is he still not 100 per cent?

Have expectations been too high and in fact he's no more than, as one of our readers mentioned, a slightly taller Vladamir Radmonovic? (If that's the case, better keep him away from Mont. Ste. Anne...)

The argument could be made that perhaps his game is more suited to the NBA style of play and that's why he's struggled for Italy...but the flip-side to that is Dirk Nowitzki, a similar player in many regards who's dominated both in the NBA and international competition.

I personally think we need to give the kid some more time however I remain concerned about using him at the 5 so soon next year. Here's a player who's had problems rebounding the ball considering his height and I'm just not convinced that he's ready yet to play 35 minutes a game at that position.

Unfortunately, a sub-par season from Bargnani will of course cause Raptors' fans all sorts of fits and naturally will beg the question "did Toronto make the right choice with the top draft pick?"

In year one it looked like they did but if we see Tyrus Thomas or LaMarcus Aldridge take another big step forward while Il Mago flounders in year two...

For the record I don't think that will occur, however right now in Portland we're seeing a nice example of what might happen if Andrea has a tough season.

It looks like the Trailblazers will be without the services of top pick Greg Oden for the entire 2007-08 season and naturally many are now pulling out the "what if's" and "I told you so's" considering Portland's selection of Oden over Kevin Durant.

And while I still think Durant was a better fit for Portland, there are some interesting things to think about now in this situation.

First of all, it could be the San Antonio Spurs all over again. With Oden hurt, the team will almost assuredly be guaranteed another high lottery pick in a draft potentially filled with stars at the position they need - point guard.

Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, Darren Collison, Ty Lawson...these are all names I expect to be bandied about come draft time and any would look great feeding Oden, Aldridge and Roy.

Like the Spurs, who suffered through an injury plagued 1996-97 season from David Robinson resulting in the top pick and Tim Duncan, the Blazers could end up being a powerhouse in a few years due to Oden's injury!

Will Oden's rehab be like Amare, or K-Mart?

Will Oden's rehab be like Amare, or K-Mart?

Blazers' fans are certainly having visions of Bowie and Walton flashing through their heads right now and this case once again emphasizes the importance of good scouting in the draft process. Sure there were no warnings about Oden's knee, but there were plenty of other injury concerns surrounding him. I just find it hard to believe that this whole situation came as a complete surprise and if it did, shame on the Blazers.

Raptors' fans have seen the result of not doing your homework before the draft (ahem, Hoffa) and just how much that can set a club back.

Let's hope Oden makes a speedy and successful recovery for Blazers fans' sake.

Otherwise there could be a good deal of hand-wringing and "did we draft the wrong guy" going around the Pacific North-West...

FRANCHISE

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"Microfracture" is always a scary word.

However, on the bright side, maybe it'll be good for the blazers in the long term. What if they manage to get another high draft pick this year? And if Oden does meet expectations the following year, it could be a scary team for years to come, at least till the cap maxes out.

by ustation on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

hard thing to predict, something you need an arthroscope to see...

on bargnani, he's still better than dirk at the same age. Let's give him some time.

by axl on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I cn't beleive I am reading a post that, based on unspecatular play in international ball, is questioning whether we drafted the right guy. Let's see how much he improves over the next two years before we get into this.

by Poppa Vlazo on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Franchise, Franchise, Franchise - out of the three, Tyrus Thomas or LaMarcus Aldridge or Bargs I think he had the better year. I don't see the point of this posting. Bringing up such negative thoughts that seem totally baseless.
Since when is Italy a powerhouse in Europe - Barghani is supposed to bring them to respectability(in time) but its unreasonable to ask a kid of his age to carry a country.
News flash for you all - he's not a natural centre - never has been and frankly not sure I want him to be one. He brings much more to the game.
Your all down on his rebounding because there ain't much else to criticize.
Who knows five years down the line what kind of player Tyrus Thomas, LaMarcus Aldridge and Barghani develope into or even if injuries will affect one or all.
Prior to going down with his operation Andrea's was contributing more and more on the defensive end(which was noted in this blog).Allow this kid to develope injury free and years from now look back and think "I must of been on crack when I was writing this"
By far you and Howland have the best Rap blog out there but fail to see the point of this post.

by Tinman on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

I have to agree with Poppa Vlazo - Franchise did you really write this? Surprising! Just because a guy has a so-so Eurobasket Tourney doesn't mean he's going to flop all of a sudden. He had an exceptional rookie year - all things considered, and given the fact that none of the so called "experts" really gave him a chance to do anything this year. All he did (at the age of 19) is come out and prove them all wrong. I think that shows what type of person/player he is.

Franchise - I think you need to apologize!

by King G on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Franchise, I’m so glad to finally hear someone say that Bargnani is not ready to start at the centre position. It has been assumed since the beginning of the offseason by all the Toronto basketball pundits that he would be replacing Rasho at the 5 spot when he is obviously not ready to do so. Don’t get me wrong, he is very talented and will- in a few years -combine with Bosh to form one of the best front courts in the league. However, if Bargs starts alongside Bosh, Ford, Parker and I assume Kapono (if they paid Kopono 24 mil to come off the bench we got a problem) we will have a chance to have the worst defensive team in the league. Name one guy, other than parker who can defend his position without help 9including Bosh)? Rasho proved last year he can defend the 5 without a dbl team and can hold his own rebounding. Plus, Rasho doesn’t need the ball to be effective. Bargs is much better suited to a 6th man role… at least for the start of the season.

by george on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Bargnani is awesome, period. If Dirk can be stopped in this tournament with a little effort, why wouldn't teams be doing the same against Bargs, and Italy?

That's the type of extra pressure he probably won't have to handle on the raps, when teams are worried about Bosh, or TJ.

If he can get 6.5 boards and 10 points while facing euro championship double teams, I think he'll tear it up this year.

Probably not for this first 5-10 games, but after that he'll hit a groove and go nuts.

Dan L.

by Dan on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Colour me among those who think that this post was tad pre-mature.

I certainly don't recall Thomas or Aldridge racking up rookie of the month awards last year, but my memory for those types of things is poor.

The big Italian will be just fine.

Actually I think he'll be somewhere between wicked-awesome and 'hall of fame', but I am admitted enthusiast.

by Bedhead on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

George- The only place I've read that Bargs will be replacing Rasho as the starting centre next year is in the blogs - He is not a centre - might grow into one but its not his best suited position. Have you ever heard Sam say he wants him to be the starting centre? Colangelo? Any of the good scribes? Show me a quote.

by Tinman on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

The talk around Portland right now is pretty gloomy: imagine Toronto if there were no Argos, no Leafs, no Blue Jays and you can imagine how big the Blazers are. I mean, the Oden surgery was the lead-off story on the news last night (6 and 11) and splashed on the front page of every daily this morning. The rabble-rousers want seasons ticket refunds; the non-kneejerkers are looking at it as karmic alignment for the ridiculous odds Portland overcame to win the lottery in the first place, i.e. now no one will claim they were handed a championship...

When I went off on Bargnani after the Italy loss (Radmonovic clone comment) I was more speaking out of frustration at a recurring problem the Raptors have had ever since my man Oak left town: they're just not tough enough inside. Hockey-savvy Toronto fans now the value of grit. They've seen time and time again what happens to skill and finesse (cough*Kaberle*cough) come playoff time when the war of attrition begins. Seeing the Pistons and Spurs grind away year after year only reinforces what we already know from hockey: toughness wins championships. In basketball, that toughness translates into rebounds, blocks and defense.

The pivotal question in my mind I guess is this: can the POhoenix Suns really win an NBA crown? Or is the Colangelo template Toronto has invested its franchise in ultimately a crowd-pleasing dead end? This is why I (and I think quite a few others) were so dragged out when the Suns lost to the Spurs. Bill Simmons even went so far as to say the playoffs were over for him when Phoenix lost: it's because they are the fans' current best hope that a beautiful style can also be a successful one. Toronto is now all in on this bet.

(P.S. As if to mess with me, Rasho goes off for 16 and 11 with 5 blocks-- and Slovenia loses. Bah! What do I know anyway?)

by Rappy on Sep 14, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Nothing like a little pot stirring eh?

Truthfully part of this post was more of a "imagine if we were in Portland's situation," something Rappy elaborated on quite nicely. I'm not, and never did say Bargnani was the wrong choice. Yes I was a Tyrus Thomas fan, however Il Mago has the chance to be special in a way that Thomas can only dream of being. However let's call a spade a spade. I was simply looking for some thoughts on fan reaction if Bargnani were to say have an "off year" while his other draft-mates progressed. Italy is no basketball powerhouse, but maybe that just reinforces my point - shouldn't he then have been more dominant? Germany essentially played "pass it to Will" with Dirk and it's a wonder Italy didn't do the same with Andrea and Marco. That being said I was not in Spain to see the games up close and personal, nor was I in Italy's locker room, so who knows exactly what transpired...

All I'm saying is that if Toronto DOES decide to try Il Mago at the 5 next year, he needs to bring a lot more to the table than he did with the Italian National team...

by Franchise on Sep 15, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Tinman, Doug Smith (The Star) and Grange (Globe) already have him pencilled in. As for Sam and Colangelo, I don't speak with them on a day to day basis...

by George on Sep 15, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Franchise: Great post! Of course it's a 'what if' scenario. But I think that Bargs isn't ready to start at the 5. If you take a look at Bargs in the second half of most games last here you'd notice that his shot became more flat as the game went on and most of his miss clanged off the fornt of the rim.

If he's playing the 5,he's gonna get more minutes, he's gonna be banging against frontline centres and he's gonna get tired -- fast.

I say, we have Rasho, why not keep using him. Let Bargs guard second line centres, and smoke the other teams' second line.

by Mazel Tov on Sep 15, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

"Pass it to Will"? lmfao, Franchise. I had to get in here just for that! Beautiful reference.

by Frank Malone on Sep 15, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Where's the quote?

by Tinman on Sep 15, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Eurobasket update: Spain 82-Greece 77. This one was very very close, Spain did not play bad but Greece did finally bring their A game tonight, they played a great game and had Spain against the ropes in certain moments. This is the toughest game Spain has had to overcome in the last two years, Greece fought very hard until the last second and Spain had to give their best effort and attitude to prevail, but to be honest the win really could have gone either way. The game was not that great in plain basketball terms, but it was very emotional including several mini-brawls, flagrant and technical fouls, refereeing mistakes, etc...

As for our Raptors players, Calderon had another notable game with 18p (6/10FG including 4/83p) in 33min, and he was one of the best in the game along with the usual suspects Gasol (23p, 6reb) and Navarro (23p including 5/6 3p).

Garbajosa's numbers would indicate a very bad game (6p on FT, 0/5 FG including 0/4 on 3p), but he actually was very important down the stretch to counter Greece's dirty toughness with his own savvy and astute play, including provoking a flagrant foul in a key moment, and contributing in other aspects (5reb, 4a, 2st). For Raptors fans, I would highlight that he played with great intensity and you'd never say he has just overcome a serious injury, his ankle is looking great so far.

Ok I'm off to rest, it probably sounds stupid but I had never got so tired just from watching a basketball game, but this one was just so tough and emotional that i am plain exhausted. I'll update you guys tomorrow about the final!

by Sergi P on Sep 15, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

thnaks sergi you rock!

by axl on Sep 15, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Could Jose be on his way to tournament MVP if Spain wins. Think what that would do to his confidence. Interesting article on ESPN about Jose and Garbajosa.

This brings up the question of do we still want to number one point guards. Jose's stock is very high right now, and at this rate it will be expensive to resign him down the road. Or you can trade TJ and make Jose your starting PG.

THoughts?

by Rahulan on Sep 15, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

It's all over: Spain 59-Russia 60. This is as devastating and heart-breaking a loss as there ever was one. JR Holden hit a jumper with just 2 seconds to go to put Russia ahead by one, in a shot that was a bit off and bounced high off the rim but ended up sinking in. In the next play with just those two seconds to go, Gasol shot a desparate off-balance jumper that hit the backboard and was 99% likely to go in, but in the most dramatic turn of events it incredibly bounced off the rim at the sound of the buzzer.

Now, this is a very tough loss to take, but as we all know this is a sport where one second of bad luck means all the difference between the glory of winning and the huge disappointment of losing. In a moment like this, i don't want to forget how this spanish team has just given us two years of fantastic basketball, and specially an incredible attitude and effort, so there's not a single thing i can complain about this team, I can only thank them endlessly for riding us through such a fun and intense journey.

It is a bit difficult for me to do a pure basketball analysys at this point, the game was very close but, as opposed to yesterday game, Spain seemed to have the edge and was like 5p ahead with less than two minutes to play. Then somehow in the last minute anything that could go wrong did go wrong (turnovers, missed free throws, rim bounces...) and we ended up handing the game to a Russian game that, truth be said, also played like champs and are totally deserving of a big win like this. Gasol had a pretty bad shooting game with 14p on 4/13 FG, and specially an awful 5/12 FT that probably ended up costing us the game. Still, he also had a monster 14reb and we can't really have a single complain about him because we would not have been in this final if not for him.

Our raptors man Calderon was again fantastic hitting 5/7 3p for a total 15p in 27min. He has had an unbelieavable tournament in outside shooting which is very good news for Torono. Garbo had a solid game contributing 8p (2/5 3p) and 6reb in 18min, and probably most importanty for Raptors fans he finished the tournament and did not have any problem with his ankle.

by Sergi P on Sep 16, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Sergi, sorry your boys couldn't pull it off at home. I know it must sting for such a hoops fan as yourself. You do have a team to be very proud of, and they are still pretty young and capable of improving. At least you can watch them at the Olympics, I don't think Canada will have the same chance.

by Robert Archibald on Sep 16, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Some questions for Sergi:
I did not see the game but read the play by play. The coaching was as bad as most of the players: Gasol's FT's and Rudy and JC's play cost the game. Why did Jose only play 28 mins? Why did Jose take only 1 shot in the 4th after scoring 15 thru 3?
Why did Jose only play 6 mins in the 4th? Jose & Garbo were the only 2 shooting over 50%, they should have taken more shots & one of them the last shot.
Why have Gasol who shot 3/12 take the shot? Poor coaching as well as shooting against the Russian zone cost the game. Better luck next time.
Ps. Sergi is useless, they need a replacement.

by Johnn19 on Sep 16, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Eurobasket 2007 All Stars
Announced

Calderon
Siskauskas
Kirilenko - MVP
Gasol P
Nowitzki

by Johnn19 on Sep 16, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

The Basketball Gods have spoken. Spain was not meant to win Eurobasket. Consider:
Vs Greece 82-77 with 27/28 FT
and Gasol 9/10 and Vs Russia
59-60 with 15/26 FT and Gasol only 5/12 one day later. Go figure the odds.

by Johnn19 on Sep 16, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Bargs is the best!
Tyrus thomas couldn't find his way around a hoop without being guided. Dude has got no B-ball IQ.
Lamarkus has a name that gets girls swooning..he's playa..not a player..i have seen him at club Manhatten..all he does is ladies.
While Bargs..while be the most prolific Big-Man white dude in the NBA since Larry Bird..i mean go read Mike ulmer's post on Raptors.com.

Peas&Luv

by Keon Clark on Sep 17, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Answering John19: Surely Jose could have played a bit more, but 28min is not that bad (he was the second with most minutes after Gasol's 33). His taking only 1 shot in the 4th reflects of the weak points of Jose: even though he has improved heaps on his self-confidence, he still lacks a certain assertiveness to take those shots at the end. I guess this has to do with the fact he's always been surrounded by bigger stars in his teams (Bosh in Toronto, Gasol and Navarro in Spain, Scola or Nocioni in Tau Vitoria), but still he should shoot the ball more. As for Garbo, he is not the kind of guy who creates his own shots, he does not hesitate to shoot if he is open but the (excellent) russian defense did not allow him many open looks. The last ball was just a desperate move, with 2 seconds left and the russian defense all over it was hard to even inbound, so they took it to the taller guy (easier to inbound to) who is also the leader of the team, and he took a pretty good shot considering the situation.

At first you might think the bad FT % was a problem of blending under pressure, but to be honest that couldn't be the problem because the day before they hit 27/28 FT with as much pressure (probably more since the game was a lot tougher with the greeks leading). I guess it wasn't meant to be...

by Sergi P on Sep 17, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

if you can't see bargnani's potential then I don't know what to tell you.

by bryn on Oct 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

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