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I guess if we assume every new player bring the same amount of whatever to the table, your analysis is correct. Otherwise, you can use stats to say anything you want. In the final analysis, I think BC's new players, rather than Mitchell's greatness, had the most impact on our win/loss ratio this year. As long as Colangelo is here, I really don't care who coaches the Raptors.

Interesting stuff...I actually did think the Raps would only win about 30 games...remember when we all wondered what Anthony Parker was all about in presseason???

There are so many variables that can be applied to all "new" players that to make objective-sounding statements like "a team that has about 67% New Player/Rookie minutes (like this year’s Raptors) is going to average 29 wins" makes absolutely NO sense.

What of the chemistry of Garbo playing with Calderon on the Spanish national team? What of the chemistry of Bargnani playing with Garbo and Slokar at Benneton with Gherardini as the past GM/current Assistant GM? What about T.J. having a feel for Bosh from their Texas/draft days? I could go on and on and on, those are just 3 off the top of my head. What BC did was WAY different than the example of an expansion or bottom-feeding team throwing a bunch of rookies and retreads together and seeing what fits.

Other than that, your article was great. Well, except for this: "Mitchell got more out of the likes of Hoffa"... bwah hah hah.

Great article. Stats show BC just knows how to pick em, match them and surround them with the right support so they succeed.

Although I'm not a Smitch fan, the season and the data suggest he should be kept. Perhaps he can take a summer course in Xs and Os.

Hey Everyone. Arrujo is an unrestricted Free agent. We should go out and sign him immediately. ===>Bonk self on head. Just kidding yall.
Seriously though. I look at the free agent wire and I do not see a lot of pretty names. There are few really good players (who will not sign in Toronto under any circumstances) and some finds (some hiden some not so much). One name leaped out at me as he seems to fit into the Raps system though I havent seen him play much. Matt Barnes in GS. He seems like an excellent candidate to fill the role that Mo Pete and Joey G were suppose to fill (an outside scoring threat to take the pressure off Ford and Bosh) but I have no idea what kind of D he brings to the table. He could be a nice cheap option and we know he knows how to play uptempo bball. Just something to think about.

If BC brings Smitch back (far from a guarantee, IMHO), why not bring in another assistant with an X's and O's expertise? Or does anyone fitting that description already have work as a head coach?

I agree that there's something to be said for the coaching ability to get the most out of players, and to be both liked and respected by the players (a rarity in this day and age, usually it's an either/or proposition). So if Colangelo decides to bring Sam back I won't question the decision, but I think an X's and O's assistant would be an asset.

Not sure if such a stat exists, but I'd love to see how the Raptors ranked this year in the first play out of a timeout. Having gone to about 20 games this year, my impression is that we gave up a lot of easy baskets to our opponents off of timeouts, and out of our own timeouts frequently ended up shooting too-quick jumpers, running out the clock with no discernible play, or turning the ball over.

An assistant coach specifically designated with drawing up plays could make a big difference, if Smitch can set aside some of his ego to allow someone else that kind of power.

Just a thought!

that's funny that you should mention that McGateway about barnes, cause I was watching the game the other night vs utah, and they were talking about this guy - his hustle, energy, how he can shoot the 3 - then they said he's a UFA this summer and I immediately perked up and thought wow, I wouldn't be surprised if BC is taking a look at this guy. might do well in the raps system.

I followed the GS/Dallas series and he looks pretty decent from what I can see. we'll see what happens.

nice article, btw. interesting to see stats put together like that.

McGateway, I was thinking about Matt Barnes too... He's certainly come a long way this year, from barely making the Warriors (only when they decided to cut Dajuan Wagner after signing him to a 2-year deal before the season, if memory serves), to getting some PT when they had a ton of injuries, to being an important bench player at the start of the playoffs, to starting over Al Harrington and playing 40+ minutes a game in the past couple of games.

He's got decent size for a wing player (6'7"), is a better rebounder than I thought (4.6 in 24 minutes per game this year, 6.5 per game in the 23 games he started), and had other nice numbers (1.4 spg, 0.8 bpg in his starts).

Not knowing anything about his reputation personality-wise, I'd want to see the team do some research... He's been fighting just to be in the league his whole career (said Mo Cheeks almost drove him out of the NBA and back to his first love, football; got a big "BELIEVE" tattoo on his neck). This offseason will be his first multiyear deal and way more money than he's ever made, so I'd want the team to be confident that his drive to succeed would continue with a big (relative to the league minimum, at least) contract.

But otherwise, yeah, he's an intriguing prospective FA, as is Pietrus (who would fit with our "team international" sensibility).

Bring in Butch Carter. After game 2, I heard him discussing how to break down different zone defenses on the Fan 590. I was quite impressed with his knowledge and insight into how to adjust to the Nets defense. If only I could remember the intricate details of what he discussed to share with you all.

I'm not sure if any of you had a chance to read TSN's article on the Raps potential off-season moves but it'll be quite interesting what options BC will pursue.
http://www.tsn.ca/nba/news_story/?ID=206921&hubname=nba

.....I meant as an X's and O's assistant!

Diesel:

That article is the exact reason why TSN should stay away from basketball on a whole. Other than the idea of trading Calderon (which I admit is plausible) the suggested trade scenarios are either (1) recycled, or (2) not within the realm of possibility.

If you notice the author is not a TSN staff member (based on his email).

I mean Atlanta trading Josh Smith or Marvin? Maybe, maybe Childress....which has me thinking.....

I dunno, Howland, I thought the article was relatively well written; Maggette was obvious, but I hadn't thought of a non-fatty Diaw being a better fit on the Raps. Here's another decent blog post summing up the Raps' next steps:

http://hoopsaddict.com/2007/05/08/closing-up-for-the-summer/

Funny how the writer (Yee) thinks that resigning Smitch is the least of their issues, but the TSN writer (Chisholm) thinks it is "the most pressing". I'm kind of leaning toward the "bird in the hand" philosophy myself, but maybe Iavaroni/Messina will be able to get more out of the currently constituted squad than Smitch has/could.

As for J-Smoove, Marvin Williams or Childress, any of the three would be phenomenal. And I don't think Josh Smith is a genuine bad seed, just immature (he's only 21 even though it's his third year in the league). He may also be like S-Jax, playing for a going-nowhere team that keeps drafting or trading for players in his same position (SF). If Colangelo can get any of those three for Calderon+Graham/MoPete, he should not hesitate (although my girlfriend would be pissed).

Hey guys, I was watching NBA Tv in the USa today and they were showing the 2001 playoff with the Raptors and 76ers, and you know it was the same thing that happened with the Net and Raptors in game 6, I still believe the ball should always go to someone else in these curcumstances. We could have won 2001 in Philly and we could have won 2007 in New jersy both series we lost by 1. I am still hurting

Butch Carter was one hell of a coach. He bit off more than he can chew trying to take Grunwald's job, but the man got more out of Vince Carter than anyone, and it was under his tutelage that TMac finally showed how good he could be. Actually, how would the Raptors' history have played out if Carter had taken GG's job? Would he have continued to push Carter in a way Lenny never could? Would TMac have stayed in Toronto?

Accountants reduce confusion in a fanatical world? Give me a break. Statistics are moulded by those who produce them--they are in fact used by your so-called "fanatics" as much as anyone else. By your logic, the World Bank and IMF (full of accountants) are doing a bang-up job helping the third world dig itself out from under the debt that OTHER accountants created in the first place. Way to reduce "confusion."

Facts and numbers have no correlation with truth and--as with this article--can be overanalyzed to come up with practically any result. (essentially what you have done here is decide that a) the Raps were much improved and b) they have a lot of new players, therefore c) they greatly exceeded expectations because most teams with a lot of new players don't show this much improvement.

What does this all mean?

Nothing. (what about the specific players? what about the weakness of the Eastern conference/Atlantic division? what about New Jersey's injuries during the season?)

Ech. The less economic theory around here the better.