Getting Off First
Is a team that doesn’t make it out of the first round bound for mediocrity? No cap space to be had? No decent draft pick? An aging club? Yes, all possible situations for teams mired in the "we’re not quite good enough" routine year in and year out.
Examples? Squads like the Minnesota Timberwolves, (who actually didn’t even make the playoffs this year) the Los Angeles Lakers, and perhaps now the Miami Heat (along with a good chunk of the rest of the Eastern Conference.)
The question then is, do the Raptors fit this mould? After all, the team won’t have much cap space to work with this off-season and no draft picks to speak of in what is being considered a very good draft.
The simple answer of course is no.
This team’s greatest attribute at present may be be its youth and for this reason it hardly looks like the Dynos will end up stuck in the proverbial rut. Beside vets like Darrick Martin and Rasho Nesterovic, the majority of this team is quite young and still "learning the ropes" so to speak. Even Chris Bosh, the club’s leader and franchise cornerstone, is only a few years older than the US legal age.
The other part of this equation is that while the Raptors have an infusion of youth, many of the Raptors "rookies" are hardly of the run of the mill variety. Both Andrea Bargnani and Jorge Garbajosa had successful pro careers in Europe prior to making the jump to the NBA and barely missed a beat this past season in terms of transitioning to the NBA game.
This was further evidenced by their naming to the NBA’s All-Rookie First team on Tuesday where they joined the likes of Brandon Roy, Randy Foy, Rudy Gay, and LaMarcus Aldridge. Incidentally, coming into the season these were the likely rookie of the year candidates...well...all except Garbajosa.
In fact it’s unfortunate that Garbajosa suffered the late-season injury that he did as we never really got to see what sort of impact he could have on the club come playoff time. I suspect however that he wouldn’t have been the answer considering he’s not exactly a creator off the dribble, something the Raptors sorely lacked, but his defense and toughness might have provided Sam Mitchell with an extra body to throw at the Nets.
On top of the youth factor, the Raptors of course have the brilliant basketball mind of Bryan Colangelo leading the charge. Looking back, it still amazes me that in a little over a year, BC completely changed the culture and fortunes of this club. A recent article on CNNSI.com speaks to this fact in addition to touching on the plights of the eight teams who suffered early playoff exits this year. Looking at the teams they profiled, would you as a Raptor fan trade places with any of these clubs?
Not I.
In fact, of the eliminated teams, besides the Dallas Mavericks I’d say that the Raptors have the brightest future of them all.
-The Mavs have a great squad but obviously have some serious soul searching to do after two monumental playoff collapses.
-The Rockets for all their All-Star power at guard and center, still don’t seem to have enough in terms of complementary players.
-The Heat looked ancient without a healthy D Wade and without any cap space, it will be tough for the team to make significant improvements without mortgaging the farm.
-The Wizards offensively are still one of the most talented clubs in the league. But unless this team gets some help on the defensive end (which they probably can’t afford at present) then it’s simply not going to be able to compete with even the Chicago’s of the league.
-The Nuggets have some room for improvement to be certain. A healthy K-Mart and Nene, not to mention a full year of Melo and AI to establish some chemistry could make this a dangerous club. But the jury’s still out on whether two of the league’s highest scorers can co-exist.
-The Magic with some solid off-season moves however could leap-frog a number of clubs. Dwight Howard is a beast down low and with some significant cap space, the club could make a play to fill one of its various needs. The problem is that Howard is still too much of an one-dimensional player offensively and between the point guard and coaching situation, this team still has a long way to go.
-And don’t even get me started on the Lakers. Kobe regressed to his "I need to score 50 for my team to win" mode late in the season and needs some serious help. The club BARELY made the playoffs this year backing in due to their less glitzy neighbors the Clippers ineptitude.
If I had to rank these eight in terms of their future outlook I’d go
1. Toronto
2. Dallas
3. Houston
4. Denver
5. Orlando
6. Washington
7. Los Angeles
8. Miami
But call me biased.
Maybe Toronto still needs some spare parts (something I’m sure we’ll be discussing all summer) but you see what I’m driving at here. As much as that playoff loss to the Nets stings, barring injuries I’m pretty confident the team will be back next year, led by an even hungrier squad.
This isn’t a club that’s going to rest on its laurels and besides internal growth from the current players, I’m sure that Bryan Colangelo will be doing everything in his power to keep improving this club.
The player I’m most anxious to see next season? Andrea Bargnani. With another off-season under his belt who knows what Il Mago can accomplish as he’s already drawing comments like these from his coach:
"Andrea seems impervious to anything and everything," coach Sam Mitchell said during the recent Raptors-Nets playoff series. "I don't care what you ask Andrea, he's always fine. I have no idea what goes on in his head. All I know is 7:30, 8 o'clock, Big Rook's ready to play.
How many days till next season kicks off?
FRANCHISE
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I've been thinking the same thing about bargs. I feel like he and bosh can become and shaq and kobe like threat that nobody has an answer for(not in style, just in impact, dangerousness). And with our point guards, we're going to be that much more deadly. Not to mention the ultimate glue guys, parker and garbo. Everyone else is fairly expendable, but even then graham, humphries, rasho, dixon have all produced at certain times and hold some trade value. I love this team and the shape they're in. Like you said, barring injury, this team has as much going for it as any.
by axl on May 10, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Nice post Franchise. I think all Raptor fans can't wait to see Bargs Year 2. Here is an article about the necessity of drafting 2 "Gold/Silver Medal Superstars" to win an NBA Championship that was written before this season:
http://www.nbadraft.net/mcchesney003.asp
The only team that really obviated the 2-superstar-trend was DEE-troit, but the fact is, Dumars swindled other teams for THEIR not-quite-superstars (Big Ben, Chauncey, Rip, Sheed), and now he'll have to give some of them up as they go for the $$$ (Ben last year, Chauncey likely this year). Darko was likely karma asserting itself.
Interesting how the writer extolled the virtues of Jerry West considering the debacle of this Grizzlies season, but when you think of their cap room, Gasol, Gay and a Top 4 pick, they are pretty set. If Gasol doesn't go AWOL first.
If the Raps' Killer B's are 1a and 1b Gold/Silver Medal Superstars all you need are solid (no Rafers allowed) support staff. Everything else is gravy.
by jjdynomite on May 10, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Washington is way too low on your list of who has a bright future, they are easily top three...or did you not realize that they were playing without Gilbert Arenas AND Caron Butler. They have an extremely bright future with those two healthy.
by Aiden on May 11, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I agree. Washington is the discounted team here that will catch people sleeping, sort of like how the Jazz were assumed to make an early exit out of the playoffs.
The future for the Raps may be sooner rather than later. If BC can work a plan to get a good banger and an excellent shooting forward in, we are there. The time may be now. We have some very old young players like Bosh, Ford, and Calderon, who have the energy and some experience. All of the guys on the roster that matter are going to improve. We could use a banger to take up some time and punishment for 15 minutes, and a solid 3 who can defend, slash, and nail open shots (Wallace, anyone?). After that, we have some projects at the end of the bench in Jackson and Slokar. Our best young guys are getting significant minutes. Jose may not be back after next year. BC may take a shot now!
by Avante on May 11, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Hmmmm... The Wizards... A subject that's come up around the water cooler at work recently, so I'll repeat here the argument I made there.
In terms of this list I might flip Washington up ahead of Orlando (too many question marks on the Magic, and D12 might be too one-dimensional to be the #1 star on a "good" team, meaning they need to come up with another star somewhere after dealing T-Mac for Stevie Franchise for...Trevor Ariza?), and possibly tie Washington with Denver as #4a (Denver's cap situation is worse, but with a healthy Camby and Nene they have a dimension Washington lacks), but otherwise I agree with where the Wizards are on the list.
Washington has Arenas, Jamison, and Butler, and that's it, and as a group they're too me-first to lead a team to significant playoff success.
They have no cap space to make a significant signing, no team concept, little defence, and not much prospect for improvement without a major attitude adjustment from their star players.
Arenas is a colourful personality and a very talented player, but in terms of his game he's way more like Marbury than, say, Nash, Kidd, Tony Parker, etc... He's good enough to take a team to the playoffs consistently, but not enough to make a team a playoff winner - like a younger, pre-Knicks Starbury.
If you look at Jamison's stats in 2003-04 with Dallas vs. the rest of his career, it's startling. Put on a top-tier team with a system and an emphasis on not wasting possessions, he shot very few 3s, his FG% went way up, turnovers way down, and other categories pretty much the same (at least considered per minute, taking his reduced minutes on a better team into account).
I love Caron Butler's game, but there's some ego at work there too - he's shown he can be an all-star calibre player, but has to fight with Arenas and Jamison for touches and shots.
The team's style seems to pretty much be "let the big 3 run and gun, and let the chips fall where they may". Whether that's because Eddie Jordan isn't a strong enough personality to coach that group or an unspoken deferral to Agent Zero to let him run the team in a way that allows him to have fun on the court, I don't know... But without a change in attitude I can see Arenas ending up like a Marbury or a Garnett, a star player with little playoff success on his resume come the end stages of his career.
If Butler and Arenas hadn't been hurt late in the season, I think Washington would have won the Southeast division, and been close enough to the Raptors in the overall standings to make it tough to guess who'd have ended up the 3 seed vs. the 4 seed. Had they been #4 I believe Chicago would have beaten them; had they ended up at #3 and faced either the Nets or Heat at #6, it could have gone either way.
Just my two cents!
by MattK on May 11, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
Interesting thing about Miami and Wade - he signed one of those three year deals (like Bosh and Lebron) which leaves him an "out" in the relatively near future. I don't know - would he stick around Miami as the lone young bright spot, or would he seek greener pastures. Either way, the future does not look good in Miami.
by Skywalker on May 12, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
That was my rationale too MattK. I seeded Washington where I did simply because due to their cap situation, any improvement this team makes will have to be done internally. Their big three are tremendous players, but they simply don't have enough surrounding them, especially in terms of a defensive presence. Unless last year's draft pick Oleksiy Pecherov gives them the inside/outside presence that they've been lacking off the bench, I can't see the club ever getting past the Eastern Conference finals.
Grades will be up tomorrow...unfortunately there's no Loren Woods or Hoffa-esque final grades this year...
by Franchise on May 13, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions
I just want to say, this is the most readable, insightful commentary I've found, not just on the Rapters, but on basketball in general. I'm not a monster fan with extensive knowledge of sports. A year and a half ago I wanted top know about basketball so I could enjoy the games more and you guys are great source of clear, understandable insight. I especially like that you back-up your thoughts with reasons and are always open to the opposing view. Television analysts are all bellowing like crying children and give me a headache. You guys give me what I need.
And you just keep getting better.
Thanks!
by Gorillamydreamz on May 13, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

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