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Game-Day Preview - Raptors vs. Heat



Before we get into what promises to be a big game for the Raptors this evening, props go out to the Florida Gators for their win over Ohio State last night to win the NCAA Division 1 Championship. It was a solid win by the Gators who simply had too much balanced scoring from both inside and out and became the first team since my beloved Blue Devils to win back to back titles.

In terms of stock watch, our first thought here at the HQ was concerning Corey Brewer. Brewer is the player we’d draft here if given the option as his size, athletic ability and defensive play would be a perfect fit between Anthony Parker and Chris Bosh. Yes, he seems a bit quirky
but if you watched last night’s post-game interviews, it seems like the entire Florida club is as well...

Beyond Brewer however, obviously Greg Oden was the biggest benefactor from last night’s match. He was almost unstoppable and if his team-mates could have hit anything from the perimeter, it might have been a closer game. While I had always thought that Kevin Durant was a superior prospect by a nose, after last night’s game, I’m not so sure anymore. Oden’s defence was spectacular as usual but it was his offence that really blew me away. Besides the usual vicious dunks, Oden showed some great foot-work on the low block and his skill-set for someone that size is unreal. He really is the type of player who is going to change whichever franchise drafts him.

Of course the question now is, will he come out?

I found it interesting that it was Florida who beat Ohio State last night in the sense that the Buckeyes have a similar bond between their stars (Conley Jr., Oden etc) as the Gators and perhaps Florida will have started a trend in terms of players wanting to return to college to win a national championship. Ohio State came up just short and it’s extremely hard to believe that Oden and even Conley would hurt their stock by foregoing the NBA for another year. Even with the likes of OJ Mayo and Kevin Love waiting in the wings, Oden should be one of the top two picks and could still use another year of college to work on his offense. However if one of the two goes, I believe the other will follow.

As for our own second-round stock watch, Ron Lewis struggled from long range missing all four of his 3-point attempts but it wasn’t enough for us to lower him on our rankings. He still displayed the explosiveness and ability to get to the rim that made him a coveted second round pick for us here at the HQ in the first place.

And speaking of Lewis, he won’t have much time to contemplate last night’s loss as this year’s edition of the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament kicks off tomorrow! Lewis will be joined by numerous other potential second and late first round picks and some of the players we’ll be keeping an eye on here at the HQ include:

-Craig Bradshaw of Winthrop
-DJ Strawberry of Maryland
-Darryl Watkins of Syracuse
-Reyshawn Terry of North Carolina
-Trey Johnson of Jackson State
-JR Reynolds of Virginia
-Nate Funk of Creighton
-Mike Jones of Maryland
-Jamaal Tatum of Southern Illinois
-Carl Landry of Purdue
-Chris Richard of Florida
-Jarrius Jackson of Texas Tech
and the aforementioned Lewis.

In any event, with NCAA tourney wrapping up, the draft talk will begin to heat up and we’ll really start to hear about the Durant vs. Oden debate.

Going from one monster center to two others, the Raptors take on the Shaq and the Miami Heat this evening and Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic tomorrow night. Both games of course have serious playoff implications and I’m looking forward to seeing the Raptors put on a repeat performance of the last time they played these two clubs, particularly in terms of rebounding the ball.

I’m not sure why suddenly the Raptors understand the concept of rebounding but it’s amazing to see. This has always been the bane of Toronto’s existence for the past few years but lately we’re seeing even the Raptors’ guards average three or four rebounds a game. If they can keep up their glass-cleaning ways, this is a team that will be very tough to stop down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Rebounding might be the first key to a victory tonight but to get this important road win, I’m going to be watching Toronto’s defensive schemes very closely as well. The Raps did an impeccable job of forcing Miami into shooting jump shots and while Dwyane Wade practiced yesterday for the first time, he won’t be playing tonight which bodes well Toronto in terms of replicating their defensive schemes from last week. Without Wade it will be up to the likes of Eddie Jones, Antoine Walker and James Posey to get to the rim, not something that fits their respective styles of play at the moment.

Miami’s also going to have to find a way to get Shaq more involved as Rasho Nesterovic and Kris Humphries did a great job of limiting his easy looks and dunks. I’m expecting O’Neal to be more selfish tonight so if the Raptors are going to double team, they’ve got to make sure they rotate quickly to find Miami’s open shooters. Without Jason Kapono the Heat aren’t exactly "deadly" from outside however the team is incredibly streaky and the last thing Toronto wants is to allow Walker or Jason Williams to get going from long-range.

Finally, I’ll be quite disappointed if Toronto doesn’t win this game tonight. Playoff implications aside, I simply feel that Miami without Wade is no match for Toronto from an offensive standpoint and if the Raptors are playing well defensively and rebounding the ball, the Heat will struggle to score and we’ve seen how terrible the team can look when their offense gets stagnant. The NBA’s Eastern Conference player of the week Chris Bosh, will be an integral part of a victory tonight but once again I think it’s going to come down to a total team effort and great bench play as usual.

I’m not sure we’ll see Luke Jackson as I expect this match to be a lot closer than last week’s blowout affair. However I’m still looking forward to seeing win number 42 for Toronto this evening, the next stop on their way to clinching their first ever Atlantic Division title.

FRANCHISE

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You do realize Brewer is Vince Carter 2.0. His game is identical, he does the same stupid dance after a dunk and he even goes down to the ground flailing around in pain after a love tap goes to the bench and ocmes back smiling after a minute. I hope Colagngelo is smarter than that.

by md on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Brewer = Carter? No way. Sure Brewer took a shot last night but that has not been a trend. You have to believe he was trying to get some attention on Oden as he was managing to stay out of foul trouble while the Florida bigs were picking them up at a torrid pace.

Oh and the other big differences? Brewer is a winner and he plays D.

by HOWLAND on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Brewer, to me, seems like Josh Howard 2.0. I see BC and Maurizio using the 2nd round pick in the Euro leagues and picking up a useful player given the depth of their knowledge over there. Frankly, I am just impressed with the overseas talent with Herrman, Delfino, Garbo, Navarro, Nocioni, Aroujo (oops..strike the last one!)

by Rubik Kube on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Shep, I’m hoping for the same seedings as you,

1 Detroit
2 Cleveland
3 Toronto
4 Miami
5 Chicago
6 Washington
7 Who cares
8 Ditto

I can even live with the Raps moving into the 2nd seed as that will give them home court against anyone but Detroit.

This seeding will ensure we avoid Chicago, Detroit and Miami until the Eastern Championship. We won’t play Detroit in the second round unless we finish in 4th/5th or if they slip to 2nd.

by Erezona on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

4 Theodoros Papaloukas G 200 90 08.05.1977

I watched this guy play on weekend an thought His defence was insane. Decent scorer. Anybody have more infomation on this guy? Could He fit the Raptors?

by Davl on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

as a raptors fan, i hope that this is the year that the big names in college basketball collectively decide to forgo the draft in favor of college life... and then next year one of them gets injured and the rest all enter the draft. god damnit lamond murray...

none of the big name players will remain in college. even if they can pass on the nba salary and sponsorship money -- a big f'n if - - their agent certainly won't be able to

by dkmo on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Erezona, not that I think second seed is really possible, but I have to disgree that no-one will care who the No. 7 seed is if it turns out to be Jersey. And I can't say with 100% certainty that the Raps would win that series. It would draw local attention, that's for sure.

If jockeying for the best matchup is the issue, then its No. 3 to face Washington sans Butler that we want. I wouldn't be surprised to see us tank a late season game or two if necessary to ensure that match-up.

by Andrew on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

The Raps have been rebounding better because their "grinders" have been playing more. Humpty is hitting the boards hard and so is Joey G. I love Bargnani but it's tough to grab an offensive board when you're never in the key, and Garbo is a pretty soft rebounder as well.

by CG on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Davl, I can tell you Papaloukas is generally considered to be one of the top-5 players not in the NBA right now, and he has recently been awared the FIBA Europe Player Of Year for 2006.

However, he is quite a rare player, not your typical star who fills the stat sheet. His play is quite difficult to define, i once heard a good definition along the lines of "the only guy capable of earning a game's MVP even while scoring just 10 points or less". For instance, he was considered the key to Greece defeating the US last summer in a game where he only scored 8 points (also 12 assists and 5 rebounds), leading to a lot of praise from coach K after the game.

He is a 6'7" point guard with superb decision-making and basketball IQ. While not generally a big scorer, he is one of the best scorers in "clutch time". A great passer as well, he excels mostly in "intangibles" (ala Garbo or Battier) always making his team better.

Another funny fact is that, despite being such a star, he usually is the sixth-man player in his club as his coach feels he dominates even more coming off the bench.

I don't know how he would adapt to the NBA (an he's almost 30), but all in all he is a superb basketball player.

by Sergi P on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Sergi P

Thanks for the information. I do know I really enjoyed watching Him play and what I seen was what U posted. It would be interesting to see Him in the nba but like U said He is almost 30 but Garbo is what 29?

by Davl on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

another lackluster final four and finals game imo. the games weren't even close, zero creativity at the rim. a few great players in oden, conley, and brewer, etc. but otherwise defensively slack (you mentioned the last duke back to back champs so you do remember when full-court presses actually produced something). I don't know, just get these guys in the NBA. I think Humphrey would be a big score for some team because of his shot, but it didn't seem like anyone could even stay focused long enough to get a hand up on him.

miami tonight is going to be tough. they're the masters of adjusting defensively after losses, so expect the raps to struggle if miami is shooting well early.

erezona/andrew - I wonder if krstic will be back for the nets. my understanding is no, but that would change everything. Man would it be great to take down vince in the first round, but they're still dangerous of course.

looks like d-league call-up luke schenscer is being released from the blazers, maybe raps could use him?

by axl on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Davl, yeah Garbo is 29 and Parker is 32, so age in itself is not a problem, but it is one more factor, that and his big contract in Moscow which would make it difficult to lure him in.

In any case i don't think he could fit in the current Raps since management seems to have a lot of condifence in both TJ and Jose as the PG duo for years to come...

In any other NBA club I am sure he could play, but to really succeed he should be given the kind of confidence the Raptors have given to their euros like Garbo or Parker. Otherwise he could be a repeat of the Jasikevicius experience, who was a great star in Europe, but wasn't given much confidence in the Pacers and has just been a shadow of his former euroleague self.

by Sergi P on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Andrew, I like the matchup with Washington as well, but there is no way we are tanking to avoid 2nd seed. 2nd seed guarntees us home court in the 2nd round and you can look at our record to see how important that is for the Raps.

I'm not worried about NJ. Besides, the 7th may go to Orlando.

Axl, I think Krstic is done for the year.

by Erezona on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Anybody know what's up with the HD broadcasts? I have all the HD channels but none of the games are ever in HD....then all of a sudden i think it was last fridays game against miami on raptors hd WAS in HD. anyone else notice this? is my HD box just not working properly or what?

by andrew on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Bye Mo, hello Luke! Such a smarter player.

by ustation on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

There goes TJ taking a shot (miss!) with less than 30 seconds to go. The guy is 2 for infinity and HE is the first option?

Crap. They should be winning this game!

by Gerry on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

As a followup...

There is TJ, taking the last shot of the game, a 3-pointer that Luke J or Mo should be taking. Nope. Clang. Game over.

Is TJ turning into another headcase like Rafer, or selfish like Mike James? Pass-first PG? Hmmm...

I wonder if the pressure of the playoffs is going to expose the Raps weaknesses really, really well.

How much of this is down to Sam?

by Gerry on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

calderon pulls the game to within 1, so of course he hits the pine. tj, who at that point in the game had gone something like 2 for 13, comes on, takes the last 2 shots, both misses. game over.

now I don't want start a hate tj thing, but wow, I really do think he overestimates his shot making abilities. I'm sure next year, after a long summer in the gym doing nothing but shooting, will his shot coincide with what he thinks it is. but right now, when everybody on the floor has better percentages than you, you have to give it up. he didn't.

it's also hard to watch because practically every first quater when we're building leads, he's passing like a machine. only to clam up when things start to get a little rough. I'm sure it's just a youth thing, but it's hard to watch right now.

enough about tj. how about that luke! I think it's funny that we expected this to happen. round 5 goes to colangelo.

by papa on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

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