Tip-In: Up Close and Personal

Great Blog. TJ is one of the most exciting players to watch. On a separate note, there's lots of ROY talk going around. While Roy has stepped in big for Portland, Bargs has shown incredible improvement and has overcome lots of obstacles including moving overseas, learning a new language, getting booed on draft day, learning a new style of bball, and dealing with family issues, to name a few. Roy basically drove down the street from his mom's house. Anyhoo, would appreciate it if you guys could break down the race and give us some predictions. Certainly, the team's record and the players character have to be taken into account.
Raps: Exec of the year, Coach of the year, Rookie of the year, most improved player (TJ)?

It was interesting to see both Toronto and Phoenix play last night, and to see the way BC has architected both teams. Both place prime importance on PG play, shooting beyond the arc, hustle and fast break. The problem is that they give up on rebounding. Dallas ate up Phoenix last night, just like Washington did Toronto last week. But here is the difference: a killer center, who you can go to in the crunch, who can finish and most importantly you trust with free throws (sorry Shaq & Howard). Suns have a Stoudamire and we don't. Without Amare, Phoenix does not make the Western conference finals, just like last year. Until Bargnani can play the post and rebound, we will be a 1st/2nd round playoff team. On the other hand, given where the Raps are coming from, this is good thing, don't you think??

platinum seats? nice! I'm still looking to do that this season - upgrade one of my sprite zone tickets for something nice and close down in the lower bowl. it changes the game completely, for sure.

in regards to the 'must' win games comment, I say if you look at the standings in the east right now, you'll notice that the top teams are all on winning streaks - it's called getting ready for the playoffs. which are just around the corner.

a loss now isn't just a loss anymore - it breaks a division tie breaker, or a conference one; it can take away a home court advantage; it can change your seeding, momentum, whatever - basically, there is a lot riding on these late season games.

these last 17 games are an extension of the playoffs, aren't they? calling some of them, if not all of them, 'must' wins, isn't hyperbole to me.

I know it's been a while, but the general mindset, for better or worse, has changed for the raps and us as fans - just making the playoffs is over. now it's about doing some damage once they get there.

STEVE NASH MVP!

sorry - just had to throw that in... as good as the Raps-Knicks game was, the Suns-Mavs game last night was epic.

Back to the Raps -- imagine how good TJ Ford would be if he simply stopped and jumped straight up on his drives instead of flying through the air. I've never seen a player with a lower "layup FG %". That being said -- he was impressive last night and his overall FG% is actually higher than in previous seasons.

I agree that the biggest missing piece on this Raps team is a player who can drive and create a shot... Joey G is definitely not capable of this -- he is too turnover prone on his dribble. Fred Jones was the closest thing to a 1-on-1 slasher on the team.

Brian Colangelo needs to find 2 pieces this summer:

1) a player in the mold of a Josh Howard who can play like Mo Pete, but with more 1-on-1 skills to drive and create a shot

2) an energetic PF/C who can rebound and block shots -- Varajeo from Cleveland and Millsap on Utah are good examples... maybe a miracle will happen and the next Millsap will fall into the 2nd round of the draft

Several interesting points from last nights game.

1) Isiah can’t coach. How else do you explain Frye’s lack of improvement, stubbornly keeping David Lee from the starting line-up when he is clearly a better option for them, and as you mentioned, limiting Balkman’s minutes.

2) ROY. Heard the homies from Portland discussing Roy as a lock for the ROY in the POR – DET game last night. If you just look at the stats and remove emotion, Roy has this thing wrapped up. He has more PPG, RPG, APG, SPG and a higher FG% and FT%. Hard to argue with that. Roy has benefited from being on a really bad team and getting into the starting line-up immediately. Bargnani will be better but don’t kid yourself, it will be Roy for ROY.

3) Bargnani improving defensively. There were several good defensive looks from Bargnani last night. I especially liked the boxing out that was not picked up by the brain trust as they were too busy discussing sandwiches.

4) Last night’s lowlight? As always, Swirsky. Am I being too hard on him? Is it expecting too much to ask of him to stay focused on the game and either tell us what the call on the floor was or shut up so we could hear the press announcer ourselves?

P.S. Lost in the joy of victory is the significance of last nights win. With the win, the Raptors have secured the tie-breaker against the Knicks. As a result, if the Raps play at about 500 the rest of the way and say win 9 of the last 17, the Knicks would have to go 17 – 1 in their final 18 games to overtake the Raps. Bye Bye Isiah.

Great write up...can't believe the swirsk never gave us and update on Calderon.

On another note: Is there a RaptorsHQ bracket contest?

Thomas played Jefferies b/c he was owning Bosh on defence - in fact, I was curious as to why the Knicks kept doubling when Bosh had been unable to seriously break down JJ at all. That, or it's b/c IT is looking out for a fellow Hoosier alum.

I love this game. I absolutely love this team. I like our chances over 7 games against any teams in the east except detroit and miami. Raps make adjustments, and stick with it and just win.

Watching last night's game on TV it never felt in doubt, never seemed like the Raptors wouldn't come back. It's a nice feeling given the last few years!

Re: award talk, Bargnani will get some support but I agree that Roy for ROY is pretty much a lock as it comes down to stats more than anything else.

As for most improved, TJ has been a pleasant surprise, but there's no way he wins most improved - I'd be surprised if he got any votes. I don't have too much time sitting at work to think about the candidates, but Deron Williams and Al Jefferson come to mind.

Completely nothing about the game but watched the pregame yesterday and come to the conlusion that the Raptors have the best looking Dance Team wow very classy

Dallas and Pheonix was unreal even My Wife watched the overtime and was cheering!

This is the best of the Raptor's blogs- daily updates, and detailed, insightful articles. Keep it up!

As a long-time Raptors fan, I'm obviously excited about the way that this team has been developing. It would be nice to see a resurgence of Mo Pete. The cliche is over used, but he is a true class act- always playing with maximum effort, even in the face of whiny prima-donna teammates (past) or declining playing time (present). He says the right things, and puts the team first. Lets go Mo!

Great stat Erezona - looks like the Atlantic is all but locked up which gives the Raps the fourth spot at worst. Now let's see if Toronto can keep climbin'.

Interesting points about the ROY race. Great idea to take a look at all the award races a bit later in the season. Right now I think B. Roy wins the award but like everyone commented - Bargs doesn't start and is going to be a better player maybe even as soon as next season.

D - Something I should have touched on in the recap a bit more - Jefferies did play well defensively on Bosh in the first half, but I thought it was also due to the Knicks' doubles. What I couldn't figure though, like you said, was why in the first half they kept doubling while Jefferies WAS doing a good job? Toronto kept killing the Knicks from the outside but Isiah had his troops keep doubling CB4. This is how Toronto stayed in the game and by the time the second half game, Toronto was on fire outside and then Bosh had his way in single coverage.

Observer - Thanks for the props - interesting note on Mo Pete. As my fav on the Raps, I spent a good deal of time last night watching him either on the court (which wasn't very often I might add) or on the bench. Body language is not good right now and hard to blame him. Not really sure how he's supposed to prove himself when he's not getting the time on the court...

PS - Great game on right now between Maryland and Davidson. Canadian kid Archambault is lighting the Terps up. We didn't do a bracket contest but that's a great idea for next year and we'll set that up for sure!

Just commenting on the awards:

Bargnani won't get it, and it's a shame. He'll most likely be better than Roy in a couple of years time, but he ain't getting the ROY award.

I can't see Ford having any real chance with the MIP. In all honesty, I think José would have a better chance at it than Ford. Kevin Martin is getting it this year, I would guess. He'd be a lock if his RPG or APG was higher.

If the Raps can finish with a record of around 47-35 (only need to go 11-6 for the rest of the season), I see no reason that the Raps shouldn't be honoured with Coach of the Year and Executive of the Year awards. What has happened with this team, especially considering 9 new faces (maybe more or less, I don't remember), it speaks volumes for Sam's ability to relate to his players. It also speaks volumes for Colangelo's ability to scrutinize talent (why didn't anybody pick up Parker?!).

I just hope the Raps can get out of the first round of the playoffs, if they do that, I don't think I could find a bad thing to say about this year's iteration of the Toronto Raptors.

Hey it's even the blogs are even better when you're in the Platinums. Maybe we can all contribute... nahhh..

Other reasons why these aren't must games. Depending on who we draw in the playoffs, how we do in the regular season may have zero impact. I for one, don't think any team has a chance vs the Heat in Rd 1. And finishing 3rd right now means facing them. So at this time, 4th is fine by me.

MIP? Caron Butler or Zach Randolph hands down.

hands down nothing - david lee, if he gets back to playin' anytime soon, has a chance at that MIP award.

he's up in every statistical category possible. by a lot.

Curry for Davidson looks like a baller...also looks about about 12 years old but that beside the point ;)

Can't blame Mo for subtle body language given his declining playing time. Everyone's human. Right now its a downward spiral: less play -> unable to prove himself -> less play. Easy for me to throw out cliches and advice, but if he's patient, practices hard, and stays mildly optimistic, his time should come again. I fully expect to see Mo Pete come playoffs, dropping bombs, grabbing boards and waving his hands in the air, getting the crowd into it.

MIP - I think it's Kevin Martin too. Lee and Butler are solid choices too but Martin REALLY has uped his game. And what about Bozer..can you give it to him simply because he PLAYED this year????

MIP has to be Kevin Martin....he has been crazy good this year and totally unexpected. The fact that Lee is hurt is not going to help.

Guys, just wanted to write a line to say this is by far the best raptors resource in the net, and as good as any of the best team blogs i've read.

Congrats to all, thanks for the clockwork updates and keep up the great job!

On an unrelated note, after having critizised him a lot this year, it's fair for me to say that TJ has been playing amazingly these last few games. If he and Jose keep it up, it's not far fetched to say this is the second best PG duo in the league after Nash-Barbosa.

Interesting MIP debate,so I tried running some numbers. Here are the raw stats for Butler, Lee, and Kevin Martin for the last 2 or 3 years.

Caron Butler:
Avg Playing Time (35:42, 36:06, 39:30), FG% (44.5, 45.5, 46.2), Reb (5.8, 6.2,7.5), Ast (1.9,2.5,3.7), PPG (15.5, 17.6, 19.1)

David Lee
Avg Playing Time: (16:48, 30:53), FG% (59.6, 60.6), Reb (4.5,10.7), Ast (0.6,1.8), PPG (5.2,11.2)

Kevin Martin:
Avg Playing Time (10:05, 26:36, 35:53), FG% (38.5, 48.0, 49.1), Reb (1.3, 3.6, 4.3), Ast (0.5, 1.4, 2.2), PPG(2.9, 10.8,21.3)

percentage increases from 06-07

C. Butler: PT 9.5%, FG% 1.5%, Reb 21%, Ast 48%, PPG 8.5%

D. Lee: PT 83.3%, FG% 1.6, Reb 138%, Ast 200%, PPG 115%

Kev. Martin: PT 35%, FG% 1.2, Reb 19%, Ast 57%, PPG 97.2%

So overall still very subjective. I'd say Caron went from an average player player to All-Star. Lee and the new K.Mart got alot more PT.

Caron has done more scoring with less, he avereged 1 more shot per game this year than he did last year 14.5-15.5 while K Mart is jacking it up twice as many shots 7.6 to 13.8

Caron is playing about the same amount of time, doing pretty much the same thing but has been more successful this year.

Lee was given an opportunity. And they ran more plays for K.Mart.

Those are some excellent statistics and arguments for MIP. I think you may have to throw a guy like Monta Ellis in the mix too, guy was putting up crazy numbers compared to last season. Or even Al Jefferson. However, Zach Randolph won't win it because he's already won the award (2004).

I'm curious to know some opinions on the player who regressed the most. Mike James? Charlie Villanueva? Anyone else who isn't a former Raptor?

Great stats ustation - Butler is one of my favourite players in the league so I'd love it if he won. The numbers don't lie, and based on that Caron should win. However I think Martin gets it because of his background. Butler was EXPECTED (as an ex Cavs fan I can remember yelling at the TV when Cleveland picked Dajuan Wager instead of Butler in the draft) to be this good when he was drafted yet Martin was a late, late first round pick who no one imagined would be this successful with his small frame and wonky looking shot.

As for Al...it scares me that if Oden and Durant come out, both the Celts and 76ers could improve VERY QUICKLY. Imagine if the Atlantic went from by far the worst division to the best? I mean, the Nets could conceivably go from being the top club last year to being the worst as early as next season!

In a bit of a rush I also wanted to add in that going from good to great is even harder because its a law of diminishing returns too.

Anyways.. off the top of my head AK47 (Kirilenko) has got to be the biggest regression.

Just to try and wrap up the MIP thoughts.. and try and throw in some defensive stats (courtesy of 82games.com):

For every 100 possessions the opposing team scores:

Butler: 110.7 points when on the court, and 114.8 when he's not on the court (-4.1)

Lee: 107.9 On, 113.1 Off (-5.2)

Martin: 109.6 On, 101.6 (+8.1)

So the Kings play significantly better defence without K.Mart.

I've always wondered about the validity of this type of defensive stat since it's about team defence vs the individual, but looked into it further and it's really interesting when you think of defensive players and then look at their stat. I'll write more about this later.